Housing: 2007 Thread.

[StageLeft]

Modern day ghost town now appearing

...

1 out of 27 foreclosed in Stockton California

DANGER, DANGER Hyperbole alert!

 

[Trianon]

Is that the beginning of the major rise in foreclosures or a blimp on the radar, what do you guys think? Senseamp, did you load up on more SRS, looks like it's gonna shoot up today.

U.S. home foreclosures soar in August

By ALEX VEIGA, AP Business Writer 36 minutes ago

The number of foreclosure filings reported in the U.S. last month more than doubled versus August 2006 and jumped 36 percent from July, a trend that signals many homeowners are increasingly unable to make timely payments on their mortgages or sell their homes amid a national housing slump.

A total of 243,947 foreclosure filings were reported in August, up 115 percent from 113,300 in the same month a year ago, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Tuesday.

There were 179,599 foreclosure filings reported in July.

The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Some properties might have received more than one notice if the owners have multiple mortgages.

August's total represents the highest number of foreclosure filings reported in a single month since the company began tracking monthly filings two years ago.

The national foreclosure rate last month was one filing for every 510 households, the company said.

"The jump in foreclosure filings this month might be the beginning of the next wave of increased foreclosure activity, as a large number of subprime adjustable rate loans are beginning to reset now," RealtyTrac Chief Executive James J. Saccacio said.

The mortgage industry has been rocked by a surge in defaults, particularly among borrowers with subprime loans and adjustable rate mortgages that initially had attractive "teaser" interest rates but then can adjust upward, resulting in a payment shock.

Many of the loans, some of which adjust in as little as two years, were issued in 2005 and 2006 during the height of the housing boom.

Lagging home sales and flat or decreasing home prices have also left homeowners unable to make their mortgage payments hard-pressed to find buyers.

The latest figures also reflect an increase in the number of homes going into foreclosure that are not being picked up in estate sales and are ending up going back to lenders.

The number of bank repossessions jumped to 42,789 in August, compared with 20,116 a year earlier, the RealtyTrac said. In July, there were 26,842 bank repossessions.

Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month, the firm said.

Nevada reported one foreclosure filing for every 165 households ? more than three times the national average. The state had 6,197 filings in August, an increase of 21 percent from July and more than triple the year-ago figure.

California's foreclosure rate was one filing for every 224 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 57,875, up 48 percent from July and an increase of more than 300 percent from August 2006.

Florida had one foreclosure filing for every 243 households. In all, the state reported 33,932 foreclosure filings, up 77 percent from July's total and more than twice the year-ago total.

Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Indiana rounded out the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates.

AP

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Trianon
Is that the beginning of the major rise in foreclosures or a blimp on the radar, what do you guys think? Senseamp, did you load up on more SRS, looks like it's gonna shoot up today.

I think the subprime loans reaching their reset period will keep rising until October (then it plateaus for quite a while). This is the time when people can no longer afford to make payments on their mortgage. Foreclosures will follow, but will lag by a few months. Thus, I conclude that the foreclosure rate will keep increasing until early 2008 where it will stay flat for quite a while.

So, no, I don't think it is a blip on the radar.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Trianon
Is that the beginning of the major rise in foreclosures or a blimp on the radar, what do you guys think? Senseamp, did you load up on more SRS, looks like it's gonna shoot up today.

I am fully loaded up on SRS at this point. It's my biggest holding and I don't plan on adding to it anymore because it would make me less diversified. It's trades very strange. There is still a lot of denial. I think a rate cut will actually help bring capitulation along, because now people are still holding on to hope that the fed will save housing.
It's not a one way street, but I still like long term trend.

 

[brxndxn]

I live in the Sarasota/Bradenton area.. And I saw this coming. Instead of buying a piece of shit condo for $250k, I decided to rent a nice apartment for $885/mo.

But now, I want to buy.. Prices should be low, right? WRONG. People are still stubbornly trying to sell 3br/2ba 1700 sqft houses for $350k! So.. it looks like I'm going to rent another year.

But.. with the Fed deciding that the dollar needs to drop in value, maybe I should feel the need to buy sooner rather than later?

I swear.. the housing market cannot drop like any other market in capitalism because the average person only has ONE house to sell.

This drives me nuts.. For example.. a foreclosed house that I am interested in originally sold in 2001 for $206k and sold for $448k in 2006. Now, they're trying to sell it for $350k.. So, I'm supposed to believe that even after the crash, houses are worth 70% more than they were in 2001??!

I hope the banks like paying property taxes and holding on to lots and lots of foreclosures because they seriously aren't willing to get rid of the properties at realistic selling prices.

 

[Hacp]

The housing boom is over. The next big thing is farmland.

 

[Hacp]

Originally posted by: brxndxn
I live in the Sarasota/Bradenton area.. And I saw this coming. Instead of buying a piece of shit condo for $250k, I decided to rent a nice apartment for $885/mo.

But now, I want to buy.. Prices should be low, right? WRONG. People are still stubbornly trying to sell 3br/2ba 1700 sqft houses for $350k! So.. it looks like I'm going to rent another year.

But.. with the Fed deciding that the dollar needs to drop in value, maybe I should feel the need to buy sooner rather than later?

I swear.. the housing market cannot drop like any other market in capitalism because the average person only has ONE house to sell.

This drives me nuts.. For example.. a foreclosed house that I am interested in originally sold in 2001 for $206k and sold for $448k in 2006. Now, they're trying to sell it for $350k.. So, I'm supposed to believe that even after the crash, houses are worth 70% more than they were in 2001??!

I hope the banks like paying property taxes and holding on to lots and lots of foreclosures because they seriously aren't willing to get rid of the properties at realistic selling prices.

Just wait it out imo. The backlash against sub-prime loans is just starting. Even if all the people who took the teaser rates do manage to reorganize their mortgages, and avoid foreclosure, I doubt that banks will be issuing out many more sup-prime loans, since investors will be weary of the newly found risk in purchasing sub-prime backed securities.

Fewer loans, fewer buyers, less demand, lower prices! Yay!

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: brxndxn
I live in the Sarasota/Bradenton area.. And I saw this coming. Instead of buying a piece of shit condo for $250k, I decided to rent a nice apartment for $885/mo.

But now, I want to buy.. Prices should be low, right? WRONG. People are still stubbornly trying to sell 3br/2ba 1700 sqft houses for $350k! So.. it looks like I'm going to rent another year.

But.. with the Fed deciding that the dollar needs to drop in value, maybe I should feel the need to buy sooner rather than later?

I swear.. the housing market cannot drop like any other market in capitalism because the average person only has ONE house to sell.

This drives me nuts.. For example.. a foreclosed house that I am interested in originally sold in 2001 for $206k and sold for $448k in 2006. Now, they're trying to sell it for $350k.. So, I'm supposed to believe that even after the crash, houses are worth 70% more than they were in 2001??!

I hope the banks like paying property taxes and holding on to lots and lots of foreclosures because they seriously aren't willing to get rid of the properties at realistic selling prices.

Just hang on for a while longer, they're talking about a couple of years for the market to straighten out. Keep your credit clean & have some cash ready. I'd suggest waiting at least another year.

 

[Trianon]

Originally posted by: brxndxn
This drives me nuts.. For example.. a foreclosed house that I am interested in originally sold in 2001 for $206k and sold for $448k in 2006. Now, they're trying to sell it for $350k.. So, I'm supposed to believe that even after the crash, houses are worth 70% more than they were in 2001??!

I hope the banks like paying property taxes and holding on to lots and lots of foreclosures because they seriously aren't willing to get rid of the properties at realistic selling prices.

Don't worry, wages haven't risen drmatically to warrant existing prices, so housing crash is not done yet, prices will be dropping for at least another year.

 

[Trianon]

More from the same source:

House prices to drop much lower: Greenspan

Fri Sep 21, 3:25 AM ET

A big overhang of property will bring U.S. house prices down further, but it is too early to say if the economy will plunge into recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday.

Greenspan said in an interview with Austrian magazine Format that low interest rates in the past 15 years were to blame for the house price bubble, but that central banks were powerless when they tried to bring it under control.

"It's a difficult situation, there is an enormous overhang on the real estate market," Greenspan was quoted as saying. "Many buildings which just have been finished can't be sold ..."

"So far, prices have dropped only slightly. But it was enough to cause alarm around the world," he said. "Prices are going to fall much lower yet."

"However, it is too early to answer the question about a recession. We simply don't know yet. It depends on how flexibly the economy can react," he said.

Greenspan said deregulation and the introduction of market economies in the former Communist bloc after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 had caused a global boom and a worldwide reduction of interest rates, which both helped fuel the property bubble.

"There is no doubt about the fact that low interest rates for long-term government bonds have caused the real estate bubble in the United States," he said.

"The Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate increases in 2004. We were hoping to bring the speculative excesses in the real estate sector under control. We failed. We tried it again in 2005. Failure," he said.

"Nobody could do anything about it, neither us nor the European Central Bank. We were powerless," he said.

Reuters

I appreciate his candid opinion, but couldn't at least chime in earlier, tell everyone - WTH are you doing? Maybe more people would listen?

 

[Trianon]

Investors look to housing data, builder results
More bad news expected in home sales and reports from KB Home, Lennar
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:29 AM ET Sep 24, 2007
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The housing market will again be in focus this week as investors brace for expected reports on August new- and existing-home sales, while two of the nation's largest home builders are slated to report financial results that will likely include quarterly losses and write-downs.
Builder stocks got off to a rocky start Monday.
Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF) said its board of directors has eliminated the company's quarterly cash dividend. The company expects to save about $10 million annually, with the funds to be used to pay down debt.
"Given the relatively small aggregate amounts involved, we have believed that home builders would cut/eliminate their common dividend only when faced with a severe near-term liquidity crunch where every penny counted," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Stevenson in a research note Monday.
The news that Standard Pacific had eliminated its dividend "prompts us to reexamine this view," he said. There has been persistent speculation in recent months that some home builders may not have the financial strength to survive the current downturn.
Shares of Standard Pacific lost 11% in morning action as the broader sector also traded lower.
Builder stocks rallied sharply last Tuesday following the Federal Reserve's surprising cut of half a percentage point in a key interest rate, but they have lost ground since then and given up the gains.
Although the rate cut provided a psychological boost, many observers think the housing market still faces serious fundamental problems -- a glut of unsold homes, falling prices and a difficult mortgage market. Also, foreclosures are expected to rise as adjustable-rate mortgage reset higher, while tighter lending standards are seen as taking a bite out of demand. See related story.
"Unless the Fed has embarked on an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, we continue to believe the near-term risks are to the downside for home builders," Stevenson said Monday.
"While more constructive over a three- to five-year holding period, we expect foreclosures to put significant downward pressure on home prices over the next few quarters," he added. "Coupled with escalating supply, we expect the home-builder stocks to move lower in the near term before finding a bottom."
'More bad news'
Monday's steep decline for home-building stocks may be a precursor to more losses this week.
"Following on the heels of a very weak August housing starts and permits report and a new record low in home-builder confidence, more bad news on home sales is expected this week," wrote Barrington Research analyst Alexander Paris in a report Monday.
Reports on sales of existing and new homes are on tap for Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Economists are forecasting declines of more than 4% for both indicators. See Economic Preview.
Also in the housing spotlight this week are the July results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday, and construction spending for August, which the Commerce Department is expected to report on Friday.
Finally, a pair of large home builders -- Lennar Corp. (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) -- are scheduled to announce quarterly financial results on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Home builders have been taking impairment charges and writing down the value of unsold homes and land, which is pushing down book value.
Wall Street analysts see Lennar reporting a third-quarter loss of 55 cents a share, on average, according to a survey conducted by Thomson Financial.
"The risk is a higher-than-expected level of impairments, potentially coming from joint-venture investments," wrote Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim in a report to clients. "We expect sales to fall 22% [from a year earlier] with risk that sales declines may be more severe since Lennar pushed sales last year and does not have the benefit of easier comparisons."
Meanwhile, KB Home is expected to see a third-quarter loss of 67 cents a share, according to consensus estimates.
Oppenheim expects orders will worsen to an 18% year-over-year decline due to weakness in August as the company's "build-to-order model likely faced tough competition from the large inventory of [speculative] homes for sale."
An exchange-traded fund tracking home-builder stocks, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction (ITB) , was off 47% so far this year heading into Monday's session.

Text

 

[Slew Foot]

Just for giggles the wife and I went to go peek at new home developments in the Easy Bay area (CA). Some nice places being built, along with piles of cookie cutter places. Most of the sales offices were pretty dead, the only other people there were multigenerational/extended asian/indian families. Prices were all over the place, some developers were cutting others were trying to hold on to last years prices. Lots of recently sold new homes were back on the resale market as well.

 

[dullard]

I've switched jobs. Neffing around at work is not going to be happening (at least not for a month or two). I'll try to edit in this housing thread once all monthly data is in (near the end of each month). But other than that, I won't be posting much here or elsewhere on Anandtech.

I will, however, keep up the ATOT workout thread to win the contest.

 

[Trianon]

:thumbsup: on new job, dullard!
Opposite to some talking heads RE prices are still going down.

KB Home sales plunge as housing market worsens

42 minutes ago

KB Home (KBH.N) on Thursday posted a loss on write-downs for land values, and revenue fell 32 percent, reflecting the swelling supply of homes and tighter standards in the mortgage market that kept potential buyers on the sidelines.

The U.S. housing market has been in a steep decline for nearly two years, suffering from declining prices and sluggish demand and KB's chief executive sees conditions eroding.

"At this time, we see no signs that the housing market is stabilizing and believe it will be some time before a recovery begins," CEO Jeffrey Mezger said in a statement.

"Rising foreclosure rates are intensifying the problem of surplus inventory and will likely drive further home price reductions," he said.

KB Home, the No. 5 U.S. home builder, reported a net loss of $35.6 million, or 46 cents per share, in its quarter ended August 31, versus a profit of $153.2 million, or $1.90 per share, a year earlier. The 2007 net results include $443 million, or $5.73 per share, for the sale of KB's 49 percent stake in its French unit, Kaufman & Broad SA.

The company reported a loss from continuing operations of $478.6 million, or $6.19 per share, due largely to pretax noncash charges of $690.1 million related to the lower value of land and $107.9 million related to goodwill impairment.

"The negative impact of these conditions on our selling prices and gross margins prompted us to take substantial write-downs of inventory and goodwill in the third quarter," Mezger said.

Revenue fell 32 percent to $1.54 billion. Housing revenue fell 33 percent to $1.53 billion as the number of sales closed dropped 28 percent to 5,699 and the average selling price declined to $267,700, Los Angeles-based KB said.

"We expect housing industry conditions to continue to worsen through the end of the year and into 2008," said Mezger, repeating the forecast he told Reuters in July.

A sharp rise in defaults on subprime mortgages, which go to borrowers with checkered credit histories, prompted lenders to tighten requirements, making it difficult for all but those with good credit to get a loan.

Credit fears hit particularly hard in August, as home construction starts and permits in August fell to their lowest levels in 12 years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. And this month the inventory of single-family homes for sale swelled to an 18-year high, the National Association of Realtors said earlier this week.

Home builders have tried to grapple with the eroding market by offering steep discounts and incentives to lure buyers.

To navigate through the rough climate, home builders have pared down debt and land holdings and have focused on generating cash and shoring up balance sheets.

For the just-completed quarter, net orders for new homes were off 6 percent to 3,907. Prospective buyers canceled their contracts at a rate of 50 percent higher than the prior quarter's 34 percent and reflecting the troubles in the mortgage market, KB said.

KB Home shares were down 13 cents to $23.96 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Year to date, KB shares are off 53 percent, in line with the benchmark Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index(.DJUSHB).

(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas)

REUTERS

 

[tw1164]

Originally posted by: Hacp
The housing boom is over. The next big thing is farmland.

Can you explain this further?

 

[Trianon]

Pending home sales fall sharply

14 minutes ago

Pending sales of previously owned homes fell by a larger-than-expected 6.5 percent in August as more borrowers seeking home loans were turned away by cautious lenders, a real estate trade group said on Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in August, fell to a reading of 85.5, the lowest since records began in January 2001. The previous low was 89.8 in September 2001.

The fall was sharper than the 2.1 percent decline in the index economists were expecting for August and comes after existing home sales for the month dipped to their lowest level in five years.

Notably, more than 10 percent of sales contracts fell through late in the process largely due to borrower trouble securing credit, according to an NAR survey.

"The impact was greater in high-cost markets that are more dependent on jumbo mortgages. In some areas, as much as 30 percent of signed contracts were falling through in August when the credit crunch problem peaked," NAR Senior Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Jumbo loans are those valued above $417,000 and are too large to be purchased by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The pending sales index was 21.5 percent below the August 2006 level of 108.9.

"The volume of activity we're seeing today is below sustainable market fundamentals because some credit-worthy people are trying to buy homes but can't because of the credit crunch," Yun said.

No surprise here, my RE agent probably is kicking and screaming now, she says I've been looking around for too long, this is a good as it's gonna get.... right...

REUTERS

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Trianon

No surprise here, my RE agent probably is kicking and screaming now, she says I've been looking around for too long, this is a good as it's gonna get.... right...

Yeah, trusting a RE agent with that type of decision is akin to trusting Congress with fiscal responsiblity. Neither have any interest in making sure you save money. Both have interest in you spending it.

 

[Trianon]

Foreclosure filings nearly double

By ALEX VEIGA, AP Business WriterThu Oct 11, 8:07 AM ET

Foreclosure filings across the U.S. nearly doubled last month compared with September 2006, as financially strapped homeowners already behind on mortgage payments defaulted on their loans or came closer to losing their homes to foreclosure, a real estate information company said Thursday.

A total of 223,538 foreclosure filings were reported in September, up from 112,210 in the same month a year ago, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc.

The number of filings in September was down 8 percent from August's 243,947, the firm said.

Despite the sequential decline, the September figure represents the second-highest total for filings in a single month since the company began tracking monthly filings two years ago.

"August was an extraordinarily high month for foreclosure activity, so some falloff was almost predictable," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing.

The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Some properties might have received more than one notice if the owners have multiple mortgages.

Typically, borrowers must be 60 to 90 days past due on their mortgage payments before their lender will consider them in default, the first stage of the foreclosure process. If a homeowner can't find a way to get current on payments, the home is then often put up for auction, and if it doesn't sell, it eventually goes back to the bank.

In all, 39 states saw a decline in foreclosure filings, the firm said.

Sharga noted that there was a spike in the number of bank repossessions in August that did not occur in September.

It's likely that the sequential decline in foreclosure activity between August and September was just a blip, not a bellwether of lessening foreclosure filings.

"We don't see September as the beginning of the end in this cycle of foreclosures," Sharga said.

The foreclosure rate for the nation in September was one foreclosure filing for every 557 households, the firm said.

The U.S. housing market has seen sales decline and home prices fall or remain flat, making it harder for homeowners who can't afford to make mortgage payments to sell their homes or seek refinancing.

Many of those troubled homeowners were among those who took on adjustable-rate mortgages that are now adjusting to a higher interest rate, translating into payments they cannot afford to make.

The rising delinquencies and foreclosures this year have led the mortgage industry to tighten lending standards, further narrowing options for homeowners struggling to pay their mortgage.

Nevada, Florida and California had the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month, the firm said.

Nevada reported one foreclosure filing for every 185 households, earning the state the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for the ninth month in a row. The state had 5,504 filings in September, down 11.1 percent from August and more than triple from September 2006.

Florida had one foreclosure filing for every 248 households. The state reported 33,354 foreclosure filings in September, down just less than 2 percent from August, but more than three times greater than September 2006's total.

California's foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.

Rounding out the states with the top 10 foreclosure rates last month were Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Colorado, Texas and Indiana.

AP

the rollercoaster ride is picking up speed.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Trianon

Foreclosure filings nearly double

the rollercoaster ride is picking up speed.

But the righties say that's a good thing.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Trianon

Foreclosure filings nearly double

the rollercoaster ride is picking up speed.

But the righties say that's a good thing.

If it drives housing prices down and burns the speculators; then more people can actually afford a house.

 

[Trianon]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks extended losses on Friday, with the Dow and S&P falling more than 2 percent, after heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) warned the housing slump was spilling over into other parts of the economy.
ADVERTISEMENT

The NYSE Composite (.NYA) fell more than 190 points, exceeding the threshold for triggering downside trading curbs.

For the three major U.S. stock indexes, Friday's slide marked their worst day since August 28.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was down 281.91 points, or 2.03 percent, at 13,607.05. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) was down 30.21 points, or 1.96 percent, at 1,509.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was down 53.33 points, or 1.91 percent, at 2,745.98.

 

[dullard]

This thread needs a bump today. Existing home sales reached a record low (for the data that goes back 8 years). This measure dropped 8% in a month. The drop in sales was accompanied by a large drop in prices. The median price is now almost down to multi-year lows, and that was for a Sept month which usually is near the summer peak prices.

Source.

True, this is probably a fluke data point due to the recent mortgage market problems. And I expect prices and sales to rebound a bit next month. But, in a deflating bubble, we certainly don't need any massive movements downward.

 

[Trianon]

Originally posted by: dullard
This thread needs a bump today. Existing home sales reached a record low (for the data that goes back 8 years). This measure dropped 8% in a month. The drop in sales was accompanied by a large drop in prices. The median price is now almost down to multi-year lows, and that was for a Sept month which usually is near the summer peak prices.

Source.

True, this is probably a fluke data point due to the recent mortgage market problems. And I expect prices and sales to rebound a bit next month. But, in a deflating bubble, we certainly don't need any massive movements downward.

Yes, nothing like these "good" news to trigger already panicky market for sell-off and further investor flight...

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Trianon

Originally posted by: dullard
This thread needs a bump today. Existing home sales reached a record low (for the data that goes back 8 years). This measure dropped 8% in a month. The drop in sales was accompanied by a large drop in prices. The median price is now almost down to multi-year lows, and that was for a Sept month which usually is near the summer peak prices.

Source.

True, this is probably a fluke data point due to the recent mortgage market problems. And I expect prices and sales to rebound a bit next month. But, in a deflating bubble, we certainly don't need any massive movements downward.

Yes, nothing like these "good" news to trigger already panicky market for sell-off and further investor flight...

Returning rationality of pricing into things isn't a bad idea. People thinking everything is rosey and misbegoten gains not being reversed are doing nothing but wearing rose colored glasses.

It's about time people faced reality. The only reason why we did so well in the last 6 years is because loose credit. Now we have to pay the pied piper for those practices. It will not be quick and it will not be enjoyable.

 

[fleshconsumed]

True. Prices have to come down sooner or later. Low interest rates made it easy to afford larger than normal credits which drove house prices up. This is the only single reason why house prices have been rising till now. With interest rates returning to the norm people cannot afford to take such large credits anymore, how can you expect people to take 70-100% larger credit than they normally would when their salary is only up 22% assuming 3% yearly increases? No matter what others say, house situation that we are in right now is not typical, current pricing cannot be realistically supported by the job market/income.

Naperville/Lisle/Wheaton has been bad in this regard, there is a 1500sqft house here which was sold in 2000-2002 for 160K, owners now want 280K for it. 280K for stinking 1500sqft, 20 years old with original baths and windows and no upgrades whatsoever. As far as I know the house has been on the market for 3 months with no takers. There are plenty of houses for sale here, it's typical to see two houses on a single street for sale, and some get sold, but sales are slow, no one really wants to buy houses at such prices and sellers are still clutching to their ethereal delusions about the value of their home. There was even one old lady that wanted $250K for one story house with a basement, it must have been no more than 1100sqft total area including basement, and here's the real kicker, the house was 120 feet from Roosevelt (major 4 lane road, 2 lanes each direction plus turn lane in the middle) and 60 feet away from oil change place. 250K for that? Get real. Even in the bubble era that's still too much for what it is.

All good news for me though. There is no way I can afford house right now, not with prices like this and not even after 4 years of saving from now. If prices return to the pre-bubble era, I'll have enough money for downpayment in 12-18 months.