Housing: 2006 thread, use the 2007 thread instead.

[Engineer]

Warren Buffet says slowdown ahead.

The day traders of the Internet moved into trading condos, and that kind a speculation can produce a market that can move in a big way. You can get real discontinuities. We've had a real bubble to some degree. I would be surprised if there aren't some significant downward adjustments, especially in the higher end of the housing market."

And maybe something against mortgages and home equity loans that could slow the economy down in general...

Dumb lending always has its consequences. It's like a disease that doesn't manifest itself for a few weeks, like an epidemic that doesn't show up until it's too late to stop it Any developer will build anything he can borrow against. If you look at the 10Ks that are getting filed [by banks] and compare them just against last year's 10Ks, and look at their balances of 'interest accrued but not paid,' you'll see some very interesting statistics [implying that many homeowners are no longer able to service their current debt]."

 

[Engineer]

Realtors hurting as housing slows down.

 

[dullard]

1st quarter 2006 prices fell 3.3% from 4th quarter 2005. Prices are still up from this time last year. But it looks like the peak has been reached, and we are now riding the prices down.

 

[LegendKiller]

Wow, surprising. Just wait till next year and 08.

 

[dullard]

Housing starts fall to slowest pace since Nov 2004. Also in that link, Home Builder's confidence is at 12 year low and is now in negative territory.

Looks like January's boost simply took money from now and moved it forward. That January impact had a massive plus to the 1st quarter GDP. Does this mean the 2nd quarter GDP is going to be dismal like 4th quarter 2005?

 

[LegendKiller]

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/16/news/economy/housing_impact/index.htm

Using back of the envelope math they are predicting a reduction of ~375,000 jobs due to slower housing. I wonder where those people will find jobs t replace their lost ones, and if all of them will be able to afford their over-inflated mortgage. once they lose it.

I am sure everybody will be crying "It wasn't my fault, it was Pulte (or somebody else), they scammed me into buying my house. It was Countrywide for scamming me into my mortgage, I had no idea I couldn't afford my house, I can't even balance my checkbook!"

 

[Engineer]

Houston (or parts of) foreclosures up 50%

 

[Engineer]

Housing boom over - Greenspan

NEW YORK - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday that Americans' consumption could taper off somewhat now that the U.S. housing market's "extraordinary boom" has ended.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Houston (or parts of) foreclosures up 50%

Wow, many parts of the Country with 25 - 50% of the housing vacant.

 

[Slew Foot]

Im not sure if Im reading this right but it looks like 62 homes are were placed in foreclosure in the last 2 days in Natomas (Sacramento's latest development).

Yahooooooooooooooooo-oo-oo!!

 

[jlmadyson]

New home sales stay strong in April

http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

Rise 4.9% to 1.20 million units, highest level this year
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:01 AM ET May 24, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new U.S. homes surprised economists and stayed strong in April, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

New home sales rose 4.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.20 million, the highest level of the year.

The increase was unexpected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting the pace of new homes to cool to 1.15 million units, as part of a general slowdown underway in the housing sector. See Economic Calendar.

This is the second straight monthly gain in new home sales after sales fell in the first two months of the year. Sales are down 5.7% on a year-over-year basis.

The supply of new homes on the market rose 2.4% in April to 565,000 units, representing a 5.8-month supply. This is down from 6.0-month supply in March.
March's new home sales were revised lower by the Commerce Department to 1.142 million from 1.213 million.

The government cautions that its housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. It can take up to six months for a trend in sales to emerge. New home sales have averaged 1.17 million per month over the past six months, down from 1.20 million per month in the same period ended in March.

In a separate report, the government said orders for durable goods decreased by a sharper-than-expected 4.8% in April. See full story.

The median price of a new sold home rose 2.8% in April to $238,500 compared with the previous month. Median prices are up just 0.9% in the past year.

 

[Slew Foot]

Theyve downwardly revised the numbers from Jan to Mar multiple times already. Theyll eventually revise the April numbers as well. The existing home numbers come out tomorrow, which I suspect will be much lower. New home builders have been offering huge incentives to buy, up to $100,000 in some cases which have bolstered their sales, and also kept the sale prices high.

 

[Engineer]

Down 5.7% year over year with a record backlog of new homes. Prices not rising nearly as sharply as previous times.

Also noted the 4.8% drop in durable goods. Not the best of news!

 

[jlmadyson]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Down 5.7% year over year with a record backlog of new homes. Prices not rising nearly as sharply as previous times.

Also noted the 4.8% drop in durable goods. Not the best of news!

Supply is slightly down from March, sales are up for the last two months even in light of the revised March numbers, median home prices are up 2.8% in April and up 0.9% in the past year. Not that devastating either.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: jlmadyson

Originally posted by: Engineer
Down 5.7% year over year with a record backlog of new homes. Prices not rising nearly as sharply as previous times.

Also noted the 4.8% drop in durable goods. Not the best of news!

Supply is slightly down from March, sales are up for the last two months even in light of the revised March numbers, median home prices are up 2.8% in April and up 0.9% in the past year. Not that devastating either.

Here comes the bubble popping...

Sacramento foreclosures skyrocketing

I hear anecdotal evidence that Phoenix is 15-20% off the peak value.

 

[jlmadyson]

Existing home sales fall 2% to 6.76 million in April

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of existing homes fell 2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.76 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The decline was close to the 6.74 million expected by economists. Inventories rose by 5.8% to 3.38 million homes for sale, a 6-month supply at the April sales pace. It's the largest supply relative to sales since January 1998. The median sales price rose 4.2% in the past year to $223,000, the lowest price gain since September 2001. The housing market peaked in August, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group. "This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better."

 

[dullard]

Existing home sales in April slow to 6.76M.

Doh, beaten with the reply by 1 minute.

 

[jlmadyson]

Originally posted by: dullard
Existing home sales in April slow to 6.76M.

Yes, details above.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Yes, details above.

I edited the thread title before you posted. But you did beat me to the link. I was using breaking news on CNN.

 

[jlmadyson]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Yes, details above.

Hey, if you look, I edited the thread title before you posted.

Yea, I did see that.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: jlmadyson
The housing market peaked in August, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group. "This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better."

[/quote]


Haha, what a tool.
That must be why all the speculative realators are trying to dump their properties.

 

[Engineer]

The big glut...

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Engineer
The big glut...

"Says Ingo Winzer, president of The Local Market Monitor: "This makes me very worried because it implies that the price increases have been driven more by speculators than by people who are going to hold onto these properties, and indicates to me that there's a speculative boom."



Duh.

 

[dullard]

Housing prices still climb. But rate of climb is slowest since 2004.

While house prices continued to climb in many areas, some states saw price declines in the first quarter for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2002

The negative acceleration of housing prices continues. Will this price decline in some states spread? Mortgage rates jumped today. That'll certainly put further downward pressure on prices.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: dullard
Housing prices still climb. But rate of climb is slowest since 2004.

While house prices continued to climb in many areas, some states saw price declines in the first quarter for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2002

The negative acceleration of housing prices continues. Will this price decline in some states spread? Mortgage rates jumped today. That'll certainly put further downward pressure on prices.

It will be more interesting to watch those with ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) and how they react to rising interest rates. If a number rush in to refinance to locked mortgages, it could be shown as a skew in the numbers. If they hold on to them, they might just be fvcked! :shocked: