- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
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Syria first, the others later.
Neither the west not turkey will let something like this happen, Syria is too unliked in the west and turkey doesn?t consider them (Syria) one of its allies, turkey likes the west too much and especially Europe, or more exactly EU. If it can get into it, it will be a HUGE boost to their economy, and just for the record, turkey is seeing and getting more income from Israeli tourist, and Israeli joint economic ventures (much much more then Syria), and on top of that, there have even been discussion about some very loose military joint exercises (more like a big US military exercises including and coordinating both Israeli forces and Turkish forces) and maybe in the future a closer/better relationship with Israel. Turkish is trying to further its relationship with Israel slowly and in small steps so the Arab league won't get into a fit about it.
Syria is not so difficult to understand if you know its background and are entrenched in all the gory little details that eventually compose the big picture. So first let me try and summarize some (hopefully undisputed) background on them, so my take of their motives and goals will have something to anchor on and to give it some context.
Let's start with the following excerpt from wiki (Alawite):
The Alawite, a minority in Syria, is in complete control on Syria government, which is comprised mainly, of course, from Alaouites. However, unlike Hafez al-Assad, his son, Bashar al-Assad, is less religious then his father, probably due to the fact that his big brother (how died unexpectedly) was the one that was supposed to be the ruler of Syria, giving him the opportunity to have a more western upbringing and education, and living a large portion of his life in Europe (before his brother death). His attempts to reform Syria resulted in a conflict between him and his supports (very few) in the government, and the 'old' government, conflicts that eventually the 'old' government mostly won. Now he is a semi-ruler of Syria, as long as he follows the line of the 'old' government he can do as he wish (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad#Internal_power_struggle).
A very common (although there are a few others) interpretation of Syria among Israeli is that this 'old' government in Syria mostly wants two things, to prevent modernization and consequently liberalization, these jeopardize their (the minority) hold on Syria, this btw led them to the conflict with Bashar Assad in his attempts to reform Syria (while they themselves enjoy the all the benefits and comforts money and power have to offer). And of course to get even with Israel (old elite, old grudge), sometime referred to saving face among the Arab world (to not let Syria be embarrassed by Israel in front of the Arab world, something to do with Arabs culture and perception of dignity), they will do just about anything to get back the land they lost to Israel, without peace with Israel (to take it back from Israel, not to receive it back from Israel, again an Arab culture thing).
From the 'old' government point of view, they must not under any circumstances be perceived week, before the Alawite came to power, Syria suffered a series of military coups, the Alawite understood that if, even for a moment, they will be perceived as week, another coup will happen or alternatively, they might be invaded by a more powerful country, the last option isn?t as valid anymore as it used to be because Saddam Hossain reign was ended not so long ago, turkey is not perceived as a threat as it used to, Jordon was never a threat and so does Lebanon, so Israel remain the last clear threat to the Alawite rule over Syria.
To be continued....
Neither the west not turkey will let something like this happen, Syria is too unliked in the west and turkey doesn?t consider them (Syria) one of its allies, turkey likes the west too much and especially Europe, or more exactly EU. If it can get into it, it will be a HUGE boost to their economy, and just for the record, turkey is seeing and getting more income from Israeli tourist, and Israeli joint economic ventures (much much more then Syria), and on top of that, there have even been discussion about some very loose military joint exercises (more like a big US military exercises including and coordinating both Israeli forces and Turkish forces) and maybe in the future a closer/better relationship with Israel. Turkish is trying to further its relationship with Israel slowly and in small steps so the Arab league won't get into a fit about it.
Syria is not so difficult to understand if you know its background and are entrenched in all the gory little details that eventually compose the big picture. So first let me try and summarize some (hopefully undisputed) background on them, so my take of their motives and goals will have something to anchor on and to give it some context.
Let's start with the following excerpt from wiki (Alawite):
Further reading on this (if anyone wish to) on wiki entries: Syria, Baath Party, Alawite.
The Alawite, a minority in Syria, is in complete control on Syria government, which is comprised mainly, of course, from Alaouites. However, unlike Hafez al-Assad, his son, Bashar al-Assad, is less religious then his father, probably due to the fact that his big brother (how died unexpectedly) was the one that was supposed to be the ruler of Syria, giving him the opportunity to have a more western upbringing and education, and living a large portion of his life in Europe (before his brother death). His attempts to reform Syria resulted in a conflict between him and his supports (very few) in the government, and the 'old' government, conflicts that eventually the 'old' government mostly won. Now he is a semi-ruler of Syria, as long as he follows the line of the 'old' government he can do as he wish (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad#Internal_power_struggle).
A very common (although there are a few others) interpretation of Syria among Israeli is that this 'old' government in Syria mostly wants two things, to prevent modernization and consequently liberalization, these jeopardize their (the minority) hold on Syria, this btw led them to the conflict with Bashar Assad in his attempts to reform Syria (while they themselves enjoy the all the benefits and comforts money and power have to offer). And of course to get even with Israel (old elite, old grudge), sometime referred to saving face among the Arab world (to not let Syria be embarrassed by Israel in front of the Arab world, something to do with Arabs culture and perception of dignity), they will do just about anything to get back the land they lost to Israel, without peace with Israel (to take it back from Israel, not to receive it back from Israel, again an Arab culture thing).
From the 'old' government point of view, they must not under any circumstances be perceived week, before the Alawite came to power, Syria suffered a series of military coups, the Alawite understood that if, even for a moment, they will be perceived as week, another coup will happen or alternatively, they might be invaded by a more powerful country, the last option isn?t as valid anymore as it used to be because Saddam Hossain reign was ended not so long ago, turkey is not perceived as a threat as it used to, Jordon was never a threat and so does Lebanon, so Israel remain the last clear threat to the Alawite rule over Syria.
To be continued....
Iran, ever since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has risen to power, has been taking an ever increasing role in the Middle East conflict. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctrine about the Middle East in general and Israel in particular, as being interpreted by the west, goes something like this (cliff notes):
The middle east can be, once it will be united under Islam, one of superpowers in the world, an equal to USA, the EU and China;
...
One of the biggest obstacles to this vision is Israel, the Islamic world need to remove Israel from its midst to ever achieve this.
Further reading about this:
english.aljazeera.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad_and_Israel
And just about anywhere else
This is old news, here is some new news. Israel is reassessing its understanding of the Middle East.
Two articles in Israel press (in Hebrew):
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3295316,00.html
The head of Aman is stating that Syria is an Iranian weapons storehouse; Iran today is deeply involved in training, funding and guiding Hezbollah; Syria today is more of a middleman between Hezbollah and Iran.
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3296706,00.html
Avi Dichter, the former head of the Shabak, is stating that Hezbollah is in fact an Iranian military division for all intent and purposes (think about it like this: Hezbollah is to Iran like the foreign legion is for France). Also in the last six years, Iran is trying to build the Hamas like it build Hezbollah, from the infrastructure up. Iran wants to be able to, one day, give the word "go" and have Israel plunged in an almost all out war.
But is it all gloom and doom?
There are a few rays of hope, every once in a while some Palestinian leader is struck by enlightenment and call for all the Palestinians to look to themselves and ask themselves if they share some of the responsibility for their current state. The most recent one is this (in Hebrew, dated 27.08.06):
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3296354,00.html
Heading: the (Palestinians) organizations are the one to blame for the current situation.
Sub-heading: in an unusual and criticizing article, the spokesman of Hamas government is pointing a blaming finger to all the Palestinians organizations: "the reality in Gaza today is of wretchedness, sadness, and failure. The anarchy, killing in vain, the robbery of land, the street hooliganism ? is all of this is the responsibility of the occupation? Let us admit our own errors."
The realization that Palestinians is letting them selves be the boxing gloves of Iran and Syria (literally), is painfully slowly trickling in. This however is en extremely rare occasion, this did happen before, and a day after (sometimes an hour later) qassams rockets landed in Sderot. I don?t know how much time it will take for opinions like this to be the prevalent one among the Palestinians, judging from recent history, rare statement like this usually don?t result in any significant effect, and only, very rarely, leaves behind some kind residue in people mind, in most times statements like this just fade away in to the archives.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
To Kobymu,
If nothing else, an interesting read. But the things that struck me were the following.
1. The idea that only Israel prevents an arab bloc---if such a block could be put together, the presence or non-presence of Israel would make no
difference is and remains my dominant impression.
2. The idea that the Palistinian people are having it slowly dawn on them that they are being used as pawns--but that realization just fades away (possibly because they are dumb and sub-human ?---seems to be the thrust of that latter statement ) I personally believe the Palistinians are somewhat the key to a mid-east peace---if Israel leaves them with no hope,
basically the legacy of the past 58 years, then the problem will fester. Only if Israel is instramental in giving the Palistinians hope and something to build a future on, can the Palistinian problem be solved.----I have said it before so I will say it again---as the Palistinians go---so goes Israel---and they are the factor limiting Israel.---and given the choice netween charity
and selfishness---Israel invariably chooses selfish.---which is the politics of a pig---and its why most pigs end up being bacon.
3. While your post is well sourced, the thinking of a few writers hardly constitutes a concensus. And as historians read prior writers that think they are the voice of reason at the time. later analysis usually show such writers are unusally bad predictors of the future. The point being, there are lots of different thoughts going on---even if there is some concensus on final goals. But in a crisis---emotions rather than cold reason usually rules the day.
4. Even if one accepts your version of the forces arrayed against Israel, what is misssing in action is any method to defuse hatreds---and in final analysis---the Israeli strategy is and continues to be maintaining military hegmony as the only arrow in your quiver.---with not one single word in the entire article even suggesting that Israel could do much to defuse the
hatreds.
If nothing else, an interesting read. But the things that struck me were the following.
1. The idea that only Israel prevents an arab bloc---if such a block could be put together, the presence or non-presence of Israel would make no
difference is and remains my dominant impression.
2. The idea that the Palistinian people are having it slowly dawn on them that they are being used as pawns--but that realization just fades away (possibly because they are dumb and sub-human ?---seems to be the thrust of that latter statement ) I personally believe the Palistinians are somewhat the key to a mid-east peace---if Israel leaves them with no hope,
basically the legacy of the past 58 years, then the problem will fester. Only if Israel is instramental in giving the Palistinians hope and something to build a future on, can the Palistinian problem be solved.----I have said it before so I will say it again---as the Palistinians go---so goes Israel---and they are the factor limiting Israel.---and given the choice netween charity
and selfishness---Israel invariably chooses selfish.---which is the politics of a pig---and its why most pigs end up being bacon.
3. While your post is well sourced, the thinking of a few writers hardly constitutes a concensus. And as historians read prior writers that think they are the voice of reason at the time. later analysis usually show such writers are unusally bad predictors of the future. The point being, there are lots of different thoughts going on---even if there is some concensus on final goals. But in a crisis---emotions rather than cold reason usually rules the day.
4. Even if one accepts your version of the forces arrayed against Israel, what is misssing in action is any method to defuse hatreds---and in final analysis---the Israeli strategy is and continues to be maintaining military hegmony as the only arrow in your quiver.---with not one single word in the entire article even suggesting that Israel could do much to defuse the
hatreds.
It's not my doctrine, only my interpretation of it, it's him (Ahmadinejad) that put Israel in the center of it. If you want to know why Israel is so crucial for him you will have to find someone that can understand him/his doctrine better. I don?t have the slightest clue what goes on in his head.
Only on the surface, maybe, on the surface, Palestinians only have 2 options, blame themselves or blame Israel (blaming the rest of the Arab world isn?t a valid option any more, after the many attempts of peace negotiation between Israel and Palestinians its either our fault or theirs), and it doesn?t take a PhD in psychology to figure out which one of these options is the 'easier' one, which one will be more applaud to by the crowds when a leader makes a public speech, which one will help you net more votes in the election*, which one sound better when you are asking the rest of the Arabs for economical assistance and so on and so on.
*why do you think the Hamas won it? Mob mentality, think about how easy is was, back in the cold war days, to unite Americans against the evil communist. Presenting a big evil to the crowds and blaming him for all their troubles is a very well known, well researched and established tactic for extremist to win some political gains, I can offer you a few links but it seems you don't like that
. With the inner dynamics within Palestinians politics, functions, armed organization and all that, Israel cant give hope to the Palestinians, liked I said many times before, there isn?t a single faction among all the different Palestinians faction that can 'take charge' of the Palestinians as a nation, they are too scattered, spread out too thin. Also there are too many outside forces (some are very powerful, but I don?t want to repeat myself) that are interested in divided Palestinians, divide and conquer.
The only ones that can offer hope to the Palestinians are Palestinians.
When was the last time one of the Palestinians militant functions were willing to use its arms against other Palestinian that didn?t want to take part in one of the many many attempts of a ceasefire? Never! Not even once.
This is, sadly, Arafat legacy to the Palestinian: shaking a hand in peace with Israel with his one hand, and ordering suicide bombers with the other hand. This conception that, one Palestinian will talk to us about a ceasefire while others will continue with their attacks on Israel, has somehow infested Palestinian minds as a legitimate course of action, and, again, painfully slowly they are understanding the we will not play by such rules.
What did pigs ever do to you that you hate them so much?
Writers? The head of Aman and the former head of the Shabak? These are not 'Writers' or historians, or even columnists we are talking about here; these are professionals, highly regarded professionals in the intelligence community, and not some people with opinions. Are the CIA head, FBI head, DoD head and NSA head..... 'Writers' ?
As it stand right now, I (and probably a lot of others, including the Israel government) will give a lot of weight to their opinions, I'm not saying thy are absolutely right in every thing they say, but if you really want to downplay these professionals estimations, you will have to do much better then that.
This is probably the biggest mistake you have, There isn?t a single or a series of actions that can make 'hatreds' go away just like that, sadly there isn?t a way to 'defuse hatreds', hatreds dies just like empires, slowly...
Painfully slowly.
The last paragraph probably needs an additional discussion.
What can Israel do to 'defuse hatreds', assuming its achievable?
And operative suggestions please, if you may.
And I'm not talking about Israel standing ideally while Palestinians deplete their hatred to Israel by killing them.
Is hatred like a mechanical mechanism that someone can come along with a screwdriver/toolbox and just 'defuse' it?
What kind of action or series of action can nullify (or come close to it) all the past aggressions and grudges that Palestinians carry toward Israel?
What kind of action or series of action can at least keep at bay the ever increasing of Islamic fundamentalism among the Palestinians?
What kind of action or series of action can override anti-Semitism and anti-Israel teaching as they are conducted in Hamas schools in Gaza?
What kind of action or series of action can make Palestinians stop blaming Israel for their poverty, lack of education and lack of welfare in Gaza?
And will these actions have that/any effect when they are coming from Israel?
Any suggestions will do, I'm fresh out of ideas.
What can Israel do to 'defuse hatreds', assuming its achievable?
And operative suggestions please, if you may.
And I'm not talking about Israel standing ideally while Palestinians deplete their hatred to Israel by killing them.
Is hatred like a mechanical mechanism that someone can come along with a screwdriver/toolbox and just 'defuse' it?
What kind of action or series of action can nullify (or come close to it) all the past aggressions and grudges that Palestinians carry toward Israel?
What kind of action or series of action can at least keep at bay the ever increasing of Islamic fundamentalism among the Palestinians?
What kind of action or series of action can override anti-Semitism and anti-Israel teaching as they are conducted in Hamas schools in Gaza?
What kind of action or series of action can make Palestinians stop blaming Israel for their poverty, lack of education and lack of welfare in Gaza?
And will these actions have that/any effect when they are coming from Israel?
Any suggestions will do, I'm fresh out of ideas.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
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Well finally---some suggestions about what Israel can do now to start defusing hatreds.
The giant number one is for Israel to be an advocate of a Palistinians State. And to also hold their fellow arab States feet to the fire to also fund the formation of such a State.
But even then, the precursor to that action is to get the Israeli settlers off of the land set aside in the Oslo peace accords.---as in immediately.
A giant number two is to educate the Palistinians in Israeli schools---and with Israeli students co-mingled in. And both sides are likely to discover the other side is not the devil incarnate, and is instead as human as anyone else.
Once the Palistinian has some hope and something to build on---in the form of building a future---you both marginalise Hamas and reduce the tendency of Palistinians to be
be bomb throwers.
Israel needs to establish trading relations with its arab neighbors---which makes their fellow arabs somewhat dependent on Israeli goods--and proves the State of Israel belongs in a larger mid-east---and at the same time Israel can begin buying Arab goods---making them dependant on an Israel that suddenly belongs in a wider mid-east.
Any of these basic steps will be better than what is happening now.
The giant number one is for Israel to be an advocate of a Palistinians State. And to also hold their fellow arab States feet to the fire to also fund the formation of such a State.
But even then, the precursor to that action is to get the Israeli settlers off of the land set aside in the Oslo peace accords.---as in immediately.
A giant number two is to educate the Palistinians in Israeli schools---and with Israeli students co-mingled in. And both sides are likely to discover the other side is not the devil incarnate, and is instead as human as anyone else.
Once the Palistinian has some hope and something to build on---in the form of building a future---you both marginalise Hamas and reduce the tendency of Palistinians to be
be bomb throwers.
Israel needs to establish trading relations with its arab neighbors---which makes their fellow arabs somewhat dependent on Israeli goods--and proves the State of Israel belongs in a larger mid-east---and at the same time Israel can begin buying Arab goods---making them dependant on an Israel that suddenly belongs in a wider mid-east.
Any of these basic steps will be better than what is happening now.
Why does Israel have to do this? How come the Arabs did fund it by now? Would the rampant corruption have anything to do with it? Well, I guess they're not stupid enough to trust the Palestinians with money. like the rest of the world is.
You are attributing feelings present on one side to both parties.
Also, you may have suicidal tendencies, but I wouldn't want to be in the same room with people who have been brainwashed since they were 3-year old.
That was the whole purpose of the 1993 agreement, and that backfired big time.
BTW, it's bomb-wearer, not thrower.
Ever heard of the boycott against Israel? Or even against companies trading with Israel? Or even against companies trading with companies trading with Israel?
FILO.
And about Palestinians, the ONLY reason we DO, hell, we insist on, buying Palestinians agriculture product is because this is probably one of very few ways for Israel to make sure that some of the money pouring in to the Palestinians is getting to the Palestinians themselves and not the militant factions, because right now most (something like 90% of it) Arabic money that is getting into the Gaza strip, is meant for arms and terrorist activity.
I think you would believe me when I say that if Israel can find some more ways to help the Palestinians themselves getting some of all the money that was given to Palestinians authority (Palestinians authority that doesn?t support terror, and is willing to acknowledge Israel right to exist will be preferred) from the UN, Europe and the oil rich Arab nations, now if Israel can find some way of doing that we have done it already.
Surprise, surprise, Israel is doing more in that department that the rest of the world together.
If you mean in colleges and universities than that is already happening.
If you meant something like for Israel to build the Palestinian schools and pay the teachers salary, than that happened until the first Intifada (1987), Palestinian apparently doesn't like that idea.
If you haven paid any attention lately, than lat me explain, Israel as a nation choose the current Israeli government because they promised that they will disengage from the Palestinian unilaterally.
Israel has lost hope that the Palestinian will get their act together and find someone that can take responsibility over there, no one is in charge, the Gaza strip is a few inches away from complete chaos.
The only course of action left is to disengage from them unilaterally.
You never herd about the Arabic embargo I guess, beside waging war on us a couple of time in the last 50 years, the Arab nation has put an embargo on Israeli good and commodities. We found around this by letting some Europe middle man rebrand Israeli commodities and then sell them to the Arabs, this was prevalent 20-30 years ago. Today Jordan, Egypt and Turkey enjoy an open commercial relationship with Israel.
And about Palestinians, the ONLY reason we DO, hell, we insist on, buying Palestinians agriculture product is because this is probably one of very few ways for Israel to make sure that some of the money pouring in to the Palestinians is getting to the Palestinians themselves and not the militant factions, because right now most (something like 90% of it) Arabic money that is getting into the Gaza strip, is meant for arms and terrorist activity.
I think you would believe me when I say that if Israel can find some more ways to help the Palestinians themselves getting some of all the money that was given to Palestinians authority (Palestinians authority that doesn?t support terror, and is willing to acknowledge Israel right to exist will be preferred) from the UN, Europe and the oil rich Arab nations, now if Israel can find some way of doing that we have done it already.
Surprise, surprise, Israel is doing more in that department that the rest of the world together.
Were do you live in exactly? The Arabs speak Arabic, and Israeli you speak Hebrew.
If you mean in colleges and universities than that is already happening.
If you meant something like for Israel to build the Palestinian schools and pay the teachers salary, than that happened until the first Intifada (1987), Palestinian apparently doesn't like that idea.
Israel seems to want an up and running Palestinian nation better then the Palestinian do.
If you haven paid any attention lately, than lat me explain, Israel as a nation choose the current Israeli government because they promised that they will disengage from the Palestinian unilaterally.
Israel has lost hope that the Palestinian will get their act together and find someone that can take responsibility over there, no one is in charge, the Gaza strip is a few inches away from complete chaos.
The only course of action left is to disengage from them unilaterally.
Unilateral disengagement does not work, as was proven with Lebanon, and Gaza. Rockets and mortar shells have no problems crossing borders.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
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Lets put it another way----even if Israel can't defuse existing hatreds---it sure can't afford to build them higher.
Nor so I believe that Israel can't do far more than its doing to defuse hatreds. Israel just has had to yet.
By the time Israel needs to---it may be too late.
Nor so I believe that Israel can't do far more than its doing to defuse hatreds. Israel just has had to yet.
By the time Israel needs to---it may be too late.
You have yet to voice your expectations that the Palestinians defuse the hatered...
I guess I'll be holding my breath longer than David Blaine.
I guess I'll be holding my breath longer than David Blaine.
- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
- 5
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Isreal recently electecd a government that was for disengagement.
The Palestinians recently elected a government that was for confrontation/engagement.
That should provide some type of mind set.
The Palestinians recently elected a government that was for confrontation/engagement.
That should provide some type of mind set.
First we will force feed them independence they may or may not be prepared to handle, most Israeli doesn?t care anymore, all they want is to get the Palestinians off their backs, we grown tried of them, if they cant handle independence that will be their problem not ours.
No more excuses . . . from now on everything bad that happens to them is their own fault, not ours. They are their own responsibility.
No more excuses. We don?t want to hear them anymore.
No more excuses! They will be accountable for their actions.
Israel will say to the Palestinians "you wanted independence you got it, now you deal with it".
Now, after we will get out of the west bank, the gloves will be off!!!!
If, after that, the Palestinians will think, we will allow them to use Israel as practice targets......
Trust me; you do not want to be there when that happens.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
The old toss them into the desert and let them starve or die of thirst trick. Just what we come to expect of Israel. Like it or not the Palistinians are also an Israeli problem.
But I will agree that the Palistinians need better laedership---as do the Israelies---because the moderates on both sides are now driven out of politics. Until you get a dialog
again involving moderates on both sides, both sides will embrace mutually self destructive courses.
But I will agree that the Palistinians need better laedership---as do the Israelies---because the moderates on both sides are now driven out of politics. Until you get a dialog
again involving moderates on both sides, both sides will embrace mutually self destructive courses.
After they bitched and whined for it in the last 15-20 years, they can't have it, if they can deal with it, it will be their problem.
And at the same time, Israel should stop power and water supply to the Pal authority. Let them build their own, if they want independence so hard. Meanwhile, let them dig wells and drink water from the wells. People did it in the stone age, so they can do it too.
toxigun, Israel doesn't exactly own the water supply and power, they just control it because the PA is too busy buying weapons to attack Israel to actually care for its populace.
So yeah. Let them have their independence. See how far that gets them.
So yeah. Let them have their independence. See how far that gets them.
Hm... I believe there aren't enough power stations in the PA's territories to supply power for everybody. I also believe it's far from it
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