Hezbollah head, Nasrallah, didn't forsee a war

[kobymu]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe...cd=1&q=Hezbollah+rebuild+homes&spell=1

Those enough links for you?

"Seems like more of a publicity stunt, to gain face among the Lebanese. "

$10k IS a lot in Lebanon, but what then?
when the dust will settle, and the Lebanese will start to rethink if they still willing to let the Hezbollah run around south Lebanon, doing whatever they want, some of which as directed from Syria and Iran, then the first stone will be placed, and then, the next time Hezbollah will instigate hostile activity toward Israel, it would be viewed under different eyes.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?...&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The Seymour Hersh article that appaeared in the New Yorker in the last week or so.

To recap it had a number of thesies.

1. The Israelie incyursion into Lebanon was a preplaned joint Israelie US mission.---set to go at any convient incident.

2. The US State department and Condi Rice wanted it because they thought it would weaken Hezbollah and streathen the existing Lebanese government.

3. Cheney and co. wanted it because it would show a dry run of a potential US war with Iran.---with Terrian and tactic very similar.

4. The White House was prepared to spin it their way no matter what happened.

5. A good part of the latter part of the article concerns independent editorial fact checking.

so you put your tin foil hat on again?
Sorry...but you are spreading so much misinformation its beginning to smell in here.
Just because Seymore hersh said it does not make it so.........rofl

 

[Niv KA]

1) If Nasrala didn't expect a war he is an idiot. He seriously expected to try to kidnap 2 solders, kill another 3 and have Israel do nothing about it? I hope not!

2) Israel has been useing more restraint than any other country. Its like if Canada kidnaped 3 american solders and started firing rockets at Northern USA, Bush would react the same.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Niv KA
1) If Nasrala didn't expect a war he is an idiot. He seriously expected to try to kidnap 2 solders, kill another 3 and have Israel do nothing about it? I hope not!

2) Israel has been useing more restraint than any other country. Its like if Canada kidnaped 3 american solders and started firing rockets at Northern USA, Bush would react the same.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sadly your analogy does not hold up,

Its more like some group in Canada does the same without Canadian government permission.---yes an angry USA would demand that the Canadian government put a stop
to them---but its not always that easy----look how long Eric Roudolf and Ted Kadjinski remained at large in the USA. Look at all the damage drug kingpins do from Mexico. Yet the USA still respects Mexican soveinty---and you have to go all the way back to pre-ww1
and Pancho Villa to find such a case---and the USA then didn't use it as an excuse to burn or sack Mexican cities

Countries that get along with their neighbors mainly use use diplomacy to resolve these situations.

Countries that don't get along with their neighbors and that want to be beligerent bullies use EVERY incident to demonstrate how soundly they can thrash someone.

 

[Harabec]

Lemon, what good is diplomacy if the country you're dealing with has no power to disarm anything or anyone?
The UN didn't help them, Syria and Iran don't give a crap about Lebanese people, I doubt the rest of the arab world does as well.

A solution to this problem would be the total annihilation of Hizballah by force in a long campaign, then working closely with the Lebanese government to rebuild infrastructure, trade and more while ignoring Syria and Co.
But this solution is brought up by Neo, and he's living in a dream world.

Currently we pulled long before we should have, Lebenon got screwed by the war and its "friends" STILL don't give a crap. So who's going to help?

Questions, questions. I have no answers right now. Time will tell.

 

[kobymu]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Countries that don't get along with their neighbors and that want to be beligerent bullies use EVERY incident to demonstrate how soundly they can thrash someone.

EXACTLY .

Just like the regular armies of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq invaded the Israel on 14 May 1948 (war of independence).

And on October 1956, right after Israeli and Israel-bound shipping was prevented from passing through the Suez Canal AND incursions by of terrorist squads from neighboring Arab countries into Israel for murder and sabotage occurred with increasing frequency, which fallowed by the signing of a military alliance by Egypt, Syria and Jordan, which let to the Sinai campaign.

And of course there was that time when persistent Syrian artillery bombardment, after which Egypt moved large numbers of troops into the Sinai desert, ordered the UN peacekeeping forces (deployed since 1957) out of the area, re-imposed the blockade of the Straits of Tiran, in June 1967 (six-day war).

And one shouldn't forget about 6 October 1973, when Egypt and Syria launched a coordinated surprise assault against Israel (6 October 1973), with the Egyptian army crossing the Suez Canal and Syrian troops penetrating the Golan Heights, which led to 'Yom Kippur' war.

You make a very good point Lemon law.:thumbsup:

 

[Lemon law]

To Harabec,

I wish I could say I know how to make Hezbollah vanish---if that is to be the defined goal. Certainly Lebanon still is yet to recover from its civil war that seems to be confining it to be a perpetual basket case. What we have now is almost a text book case of how NOT to acheive that stated goal.

With jerks in Israel and the USA that think they can intrude with military power and get the job done. At what point will we wise up and realise that fighting terrorism that way only spreads terrorism.

 

[Lemon law]

To kobymu,

The history of the world offers very few cases where a small beligerant State is able to long term enjoy a military hegmony over
larger States.------58 years is quite long indeed and that endurance is largely due to Uncle Sam.---if nothing else, GWB may cause a radical reapparisal of US foreign policy as soon as GWB completes the job of completely discreduiting himself and his stated ideals.

Israel may be long in military dominance but its short suit is in occupation and diplomacy. As the modern arab is not the same rag-head
you fought in the past. The era of complete Israelie military hegmony may be drawing to a close----smart nations adjust to new realities.
Dumb nations persist in myths.

The other question is does Israel realize its just a political football kicked around by much larger forces?

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

He got away with it.

How many Hezbollah members got killed again, several hundred? Do you think he got away with it?

Pretty much. Israelis are calling for Olmert's head. Many in Lebanon (and the broader Muslim community) are cheering Nasrallah. Curiously, Nasrallah (as an unelected leader) is actually free to acknowledge an error. Yet, Olmert (who I actually liked up until July) and Bush had to go tell public tales that nobody believes.

If someone had said July 11 that there was "a one percent possibility" Israel's military response would be as extensive as it turned out to be, "I would say no, I would not have entered this for many reasons -- military, social, political, economic," said Nasrallah, speaking in Arabic.

Think about it . . . despite the fact he's becoming immensely popular and didn't suffer personally . . . he acknowledges the fact that IDF's attacks on Lebanon hurt Hezbollah's militias, Hezbollah's finances, Hezbollah's established position in the Lebanese government, Hezbollah's established 'state within in a state' in southern Lebanon.

As for coordination with the US . . . Seymour may have a source . . . CNN has the video

At one point in the video, Daoud and an Israeli soldier have the following exchange, as translated by CNN's Octavia Nasr:

Daoud: "Don't we need to tell our bosses?"

Israeli soldier: "Tell whoever you want."

Daoud: "We need to brief them on what happened."

Israeli soldier: "We briefed (U.S. President) Bush. You brief whoever you want."

Daoud: "We need to brief Bush too."

Maybe that just means the US was 'kept up to date' but you have to be pretty naive to think the US didn't have a vested interest in this endeavor . . . particularly, given that IDF could do what the US cannot . . . strike directly at a client of Iran/Syria. In this context, the lack of a US effort to stop the conflict takes on a new degree of clarity. Bushistas didn't want the fighting to stop until it became apparent that IDF wasn't gonna get the job done. It's a shame they lack such intelligence when it comes to Iraq . . .

 

[kobymu]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The other question is does Israel realize its just a political football kicked around by much larger forces?

If you really want to go sport analogy, then we are more like the end zone and the football is more like the Palestinians.

Everyone and their mother is using them to get a piece of us.

/edit 2

And it goes something like this: they cheat like all the time, and every once and a while we get pissed and kick them in the nuts.

/edit
Here take a look at this: http://www.slate.com/features/2006mideast/middleeast.html

 

[blackllotus]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
This is especially a problem for them in Lebanon where almost everyone is pissed off at Hezbollah for bringing such vast destruction on that country.

Actually, Hezbollah's support in Lebanon dramatically increased during the conflict.

 

[ForumMaster]

Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

damn right. he wanted some of the action after the hamas kidanppen CPL Gilad Shalit. He should have payed attention to how we destroyed Gaza.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: ForumMaster

Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

damn right. he wanted some of the action after the hamas kidanppen CPL Gilad Shalit. He should have payed attention to how we destroyed Gaza.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When it comes to insensative remarks---yours may take the cake. Some of us did note that while Israel was engaging in an orgy of destruction in Lebanon, Israel also went into Gaza with a similar display of wanton killing, in effect, warning the totally defenseless residents best not get any uppity ideas. While it does not take much courage to sit in a tank and a plane and brutalize the defenseless, I also note that Hezbollah was not exactly defenseless in Lebanon as Israel found out to its surprise.---some arabs now have the weapons to actually fight back.

And now you come out with that insensative remark that says in effect, if we don't have the guts to take on Hezbollah, we can always kill Palistinians with total inpunity.

Ever heard the remark---Pick on someone your own size?----it usually applies to those that brutalise those weaker than themselves. That the term may apply to terrorists goes with the terroritory----when it better describes Israel---its truly sad how morally bankrupt
Israel has become.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
You cannot forsee everything---but we also have to remember that the Israelie incursion into Lebanon was a joint Isralie US plan according to Symour Hersh--who has excellent sources high up into the US Gov. And the plan was just awiting a trigger--an incident that the kidnapping of the two soldiers provided.---while the troops and supplies were already in place just waiting for the order to start rolling.

But the mission that was supposed to roll up Hezbollah in all of Lebanon was super-surprised as the Israelies did not expect to meet that kind of strong opposition or weaponry. And soon bogged down after making no real progress.

I think both sides were suprised and welcome the cease fire as a chance to regroup, reassess, and resupply.

But my take is one side or the other will, at a time of their choosing, decide they want a rematch. Meanwhile Hezbollah has lived to tell of F*cking with Israel. But the most glaring Israelie failure is in the area of intel.

lemon thinks Simon Hersh = God!!
Simon Hersh is has no clue regardless of who he claims his sources are!!

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

He got away with it.

How many Hezbollah members got killed again, several hundred? Do you think he got away with it?

Pretty much. Israelis are calling for Olmert's head. Many in Lebanon (and the broader Muslim community) are cheering Nasrallah. Curiously, Nasrallah (as an unelected leader) is actually free to acknowledge an error. Yet, Olmert (who I actually liked up until July) and Bush had to go tell public tales that nobody believes.

If someone had said July 11 that there was "a one percent possibility" Israel's military response would be as extensive as it turned out to be, "I would say no, I would not have entered this for many reasons -- military, social, political, economic," said Nasrallah, speaking in Arabic.

Think about it . . . despite the fact he's becoming immensely popular and didn't suffer personally . . . he acknowledges the fact that IDF's attacks on Lebanon hurt Hezbollah's militias, Hezbollah's finances, Hezbollah's established position in the Lebanese government, Hezbollah's established 'state within in a state' in southern Lebanon.

As for coordination with the US . . . Seymour may have a source . . . CNN has the video

At one point in the video, Daoud and an Israeli soldier have the following exchange, as translated by CNN's Octavia Nasr:

Daoud: "Don't we need to tell our bosses?"

Israeli soldier: "Tell whoever you want."

Daoud: "We need to brief them on what happened."

Israeli soldier: "We briefed (U.S. President) Bush. You brief whoever you want."

Daoud: "We need to brief Bush too."

Maybe that just means the US was 'kept up to date' but you have to be pretty naive to think the US didn't have a vested interest in this endeavor . . . particularly, given that IDF could do what the US cannot . . . strike directly at a client of Iran/Syria. In this context, the lack of a US effort to stop the conflict takes on a new degree of clarity. Bushistas didn't want the fighting to stop until it became apparent that IDF wasn't gonna get the job done. It's a shame they lack such intelligence when it comes to Iraq . . .

No basis for fact. Its all conjecture at best a fairy tale.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: JEDIYoda

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: ntdz
He's not a very good leader if he didn't forsee it...you don't f*ck with Israel and expect to get away with it.

He got away with it.

How many Hezbollah members got killed again, several hundred? Do you think he got away with it?

Pretty much. Israelis are calling for Olmert's head. Many in Lebanon (and the broader Muslim community) are cheering Nasrallah. Curiously, Nasrallah (as an unelected leader) is actually free to acknowledge an error. Yet, Olmert (who I actually liked up until July) and Bush had to go tell public tales that nobody believes.

If someone had said July 11 that there was "a one percent possibility" Israel's military response would be as extensive as it turned out to be, "I would say no, I would not have entered this for many reasons -- military, social, political, economic," said Nasrallah, speaking in Arabic.

Think about it . . . despite the fact he's becoming immensely popular and didn't suffer personally . . . he acknowledges the fact that IDF's attacks on Lebanon hurt Hezbollah's militias, Hezbollah's finances, Hezbollah's established position in the Lebanese government, Hezbollah's established 'state within in a state' in southern Lebanon.

As for coordination with the US . . . Seymour may have a source . . . CNN has the video

At one point in the video, Daoud and an Israeli soldier have the following exchange, as translated by CNN's Octavia Nasr:

Daoud: "Don't we need to tell our bosses?"

Israeli soldier: "Tell whoever you want."

Daoud: "We need to brief them on what happened."

Israeli soldier: "We briefed (U.S. President) Bush. You brief whoever you want."

Daoud: "We need to brief Bush too."

Maybe that just means the US was 'kept up to date' but you have to be pretty naive to think the US didn't have a vested interest in this endeavor . . . particularly, given that IDF could do what the US cannot . . . strike directly at a client of Iran/Syria. In this context, the lack of a US effort to stop the conflict takes on a new degree of clarity. Bushistas didn't want the fighting to stop until it became apparent that IDF wasn't gonna get the job done. It's a shame they lack such intelligence when it comes to Iraq . . .

No basis for fact. Its all conjecture at best a fairy tale.

Fact is stranger than fiction.

 

[Aisengard]

Hey Lemon Law, where were you when Hamas was advocating, and supporting, and claiming responsibility for all those horrible suicide bombings, as recently as earlier this year?

You want to know why they stopped? Israel finally did something about it.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Hey Lemon Law, where were you when Hamas was advocating, and supporting, and claiming responsibility for all those horrible suicide bombings, as recently as earlier this year?

You want to know why they stopped? Israel finally did something about it.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aisengard,

Have you ever watched a boxing match?---they have something called rounds---and at the end of each round---they have a brief rest---and then the fighters go at each other again. The point being, the rest is needed so they will have the energy to throw as many punches as posssible at each other and then they need that breather again.

Recent history---the last 58 years-- can only be decribed as one attempt after another after another of Israel finally doing something about it. ---where were you for the past 58 years?

What bothers me about this conflict is that it seems to have reached a new and totally irrational stage----where Israel just claims the right to lash out in all directions killing the innocent and guilty alike. At this point it just seems to be self defeating to keep forever ramping up the hatreds.

If something is not done soon to start defusing the hatreds, there is no telling the amounts of destruction the next round will cause. Even if Hezbollah---or Hamas---suddenly sees things Israel's way---you can bet other terrorist groups will continue attacks.

At some point in time it may actually occur to Israel that the only way to stop the root cause of terrorism is to give the Palistinians and their neighbors some common hopes in building for a constructive future.----a radical idea maybe----but right now the current strategy just does not seem to be working.---best described as the politics of a pig. Especially now---when the Arab is finally figuring out new ways to raise the anti in this stupid poker game you are playing.

But right now Israel seems locked up in some past myth of invinceability---let me give you my predictions of the future based on past trends---mind you I advocate nothing---these things will happen if I want them or not.--which, by the way, I do not.

Very soon, Israelie tanks will roll into Gaza in its latest attempts to terrorize the
population.---and instead of facing rocks and bottles from a defenselesss population, Israel will face anti-tank missles that will knock out some tanks in a hit and run attack. Meanwhile other terrorist groups will be using neutral countries to peg missles at Israel without the knowledge or consent of that government. Soon the buffer zone Israel needs will increase outward---while the police state Israel must maintain from within will also become increasingly exhausting to maintain.

Meanwhile other States like Syria, Iran, and for that matter Russia will maintain the arms supply---in the hopes the price of oil will go up---and each time Israel lashes out---the price of oil will go up.

 

[kobymu]

2 Abducted Journalists Are Freed in Gaza Strip

My point? Gaza is no man land.

If you investigate to background of these abduction you will see, that no one has true control in the Gaza strip. With so many different functions within the Hamas and other militant organizations, when one hand doesn?t know what the other hand is doing and sometimes they are even working against each other.

The Gaza strip is-no-man land, and even the Hamas or the PLO can't single-handedly stop it from being a terrorist breeding ground. Together, maybe, only if they will be truly committed to this goal, but then again the Hamas is getting their orders from elsewhere, so that wont happens in the near future.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And a some different bits of information about hizballah:

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1202

DEBKAfile?s sources report US ambassador in Beirut Jeff Feldman as pressing the Lebanese premier hard to do something about the situation. But Fouad Siniora finds himself in dire straits. When he broached a plan to confine Lebanese troops to the nine Lebanese-Syrian border passes, instead of a complete deployment in the south, he was greeted with a blunt threat from Damascus. Assad, conversing with a visiting delegation of Egyptian Nasserites, remarked Hizballah?s battle had taught him there are other options beside peace. Then, turning to Beirut, the Syrian ruler added that it was time for the Siniora government to go.

And a different point of view from here: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Terrorism/hizbollah.html

 

[Lemon law]

Some food for thought kobymu,

I certainly don't claim to understand all that much about the mid-east---perhaps one of the most complex political problems in human history. But when looks at human orgamizations--be they countries, religions, terrorist groups, or whatever---I can see some commonalities (1) To be effective they must bring together people working for a common cause. (2) That some groups are temporary in nature and other seek long term survival---and maybe the Roman Catholic church is a classic example of such a latter group.--able to adapt over time to fit into all societies.

The questions I somewhat don't understand are the long term motives of Nasrallah and of Syria.

Right now Nasrallah's future lifespan would be zero if Israel knew where to lay their hands on him. Could he hope then to be a future leader of Lebanon that the population of Lebanon could unite under? Or does he seek to be a latter day Nassar who could unite Arab States in a common cause?
And without threatening any Arab leader with being overthrown. But even if Nasrallah is assinated, some other leader would appear to take his place---and being somewhat in control of social sevices through Hamas---the Hezbollah Hamas duo seems to be at a minimum a solid organization---its long term future is another thing.

But for me, I just don't quite understand the Syrian position. Faced with a strong Turkey to the North,
having a friendly or weak Lebanon to the South is a understandable goal. But why not somewhat cozy up some to the West to hedge its bets as a Soviet Iranian proxy?---Syria just does not have the oil to benefit from a oil price rise.---why risk being bombed by Israel? But I can see that they and Turkey might get together and try to carve out some of the Kurdish oil wealth in Iraq if the opportunity presents itself.

Irans goals are clear enough---if the mid-east goes up in flames who knows what it can grab---And Uncle Sammies Iraqi problems does not bring tears to Tehran. And oil price increases are a long term goals---if nothing else a armed conflict in Lebanon makes a nice smokescreen for the nukes they need to keep Uncle Sam from getting any Iraq like ideas. But being a largely Shite nation in a a larger Islam that is mainly Sunni does present some other unique problems and opportunities.

Russia now has the largest oil reserves---but getting it developed and to market is another problem.
But oil price increases can be fostered by mid-east problems Russia can create by arming various groups.

So any comments on those points might increase understanding of some of the side problems feeding the current conflict.

 

[EagleKeeper]

LL

W/ respect to Syria; they have a serious ego problem.

Presently, they are the only Arab country to have land still under Israeli control (Golan).

As noted in your other observations, they themsevles are fairly weak (economically) and are dependent on acting as a proxie.

As recently demonstrated by the Israeli fly over, they are still weak militarily.

Because Assad sided with Saddam, they are at least grey-balled by some of the Western countries.

Their support for Hamas and Hezbollah, plus their actions in Lebanon over the past 10+ years have not endeared them to those that are able to enhance Syria economically.

Because Syria wanted to act as the only border country that "stood" up to Israel; (Jordan & Egype made peace; Lebanon was overrun); they feel a need to keep that ego going. And it may end up biting them in the end

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Because Assad sided with Saddam, they are at least grey-balled by some of the Western countries.

You mean the few Western countries that actually supported the illegal war on Iraq had the gall to complain?!

 

[waggy]

lets see. kidnap 2 citizens. launch rockets into the country. hmm nope they wont go t war! duh

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc

Because Assad sided with Saddam, they are at least grey-balled by some of the Western countries.

You mean the few Western countries that actually supported the illegal war on Iraq had the gall to complain?!

I was actually refering to the first Gulf War

 

[Aimster]

Just curious..

why doesnt Syria just send thousands of troops into Golan Heights and take back their land?

it is not like Israel can say anything