Hell has frozen over, Fudzilla Both Microsoft and Intel trying to acquire AMD

[AtenRa]

All GTX cards account as gaming cards. And its not sustainable. What happens when AMD dont have anymore to lose in dGPU share?

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...8-2346D1AABED8/Q216_CFO_Commentary_NASDAQ.pdf

Q2 2015 to Q2 2016 GPU sales is up 9% from 878M$ to 959M$. At the same time nVidia went from 62% to 81.9% marketshare. Or a 32.1% increase. See the point? 9% vs 32.1%. GTX sales up 51% and so on.

Ehm no

1. Q2 2015 to Q2 2016 GPU REVENUE is up 9%

2. At the same time, GPU Shipments vs AMD shipments went up from 62% to 82%.

3. In Q2 2015 NVIDIA shipments volume went down 16% vs Q1 2015 according to JPR.

So, with 16% less volume shipments (less OEM sub $100 dGPUs sold), they increased REVENUE by 9%.

 

[ShintaiDK]

This is probably the most accurate assessment that I've seen. As IGPs grow in performance, they will need R&D, and that same R&D can be turned around and scaled up to produce dGPUs. If there's still demand for dGPUs, then I have no doubt that they will be produced. (At least, until PCI-E dies.)

I dont think you gonna get Intel to make one.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Ehm no

1. Q2 2015 to Q2 2016 GPU REVENUE is up 9%

2. At the same time, GPU Shipments vs AMD shipments went up from 62% to 82%.

3. In Q2 2015 NVIDIA shipments volume went down 16% vs Q1 2015 according to JPR.

So, with 16% less volume shipments (less OEM sub $100 dGPUs sold), they increased REVENUE by 9%.

Yes, GTX sales up. Due to cannibalizing on AMD. That cant continue forever.

 

[AtenRa]

I see dGPU's going the way of desktop CPU's. That is, they probably won't be designed for desktop use first, but we'll get the scraps of what they can make work. They'll design for mobile or workstation and scale up or down to make it work on as a desktop part, kind of like AMD's and Intel's CPU line up now.

Both AMD and NVIDIA doing that all the time, they design a large die for the HPC and High-End professional market and then they scale down the same design for the PC and Laptop market.

For example AMD made the Tahiti (HD79XX) and they scaled down to Pitcairn (HD78XX) and then scaled down to Cape Verde (HD77XX).

They also made the Hawaii and used the same GCN architecture to APUs (Kaveri) and GCN 1.2 from Tonga to Carrizo.

And dont forget Consoles also using the same GCN architecture from the PC scaled down.

 

[AtenRa]

Yes, GTX sales up. Due to cannibalizing on AMD. That cant continue forever.

Yes but NVIDIA will not go down if AMD will gain on GPU shipments and thus dGPUs are not going to die. That is because NVIDIA and AMD are also investing on more than the Gaming PC market. They selling to new markets using the same technology/Architectures made for the PC ( Consoles, Cars, Phones etc etc).

 

[DrMrLordX]

Why do you think it will sell like hotcakes?

And the Nano is essentially what you could get a year ago and cheaper.

Again . . . what? What product, one year ago, gives you that kind of performance per watt that will fit into an mITX chassis? I admit, the price is higher than makes sense, but as a product it's very nice.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Yes but NVIDIA will not go down if AMD will gain on GPU shipments and thus dGPUs are not going to die. That is because NVIDIA and AMD are also investing on more than the Gaming PC market. They selling to new markets using the same technology/Architectures made for the PC ( Consoles, Cars, Phones etc etc).

Tegra sales are down. So is console revenue. And consoles hold a deeper worry to account for due to their nature. While they try, none of them have succeeded.

 

[aigomorla]

Are you saying Steams 125million+ users isnt statistically accurate for the broad base of gamers?

Whats next, dGPU sales isnt in free fall?

confused...

12 cpus 0.01% (assuming this is SR-2 with 2 hexies)
8 cpus 0.32% (assumption that these are 5960k equivalent.. Also the AMD-FX)
4 cpus 44.31% (this where all the i7's + i5's + AMD A10's are sitting at?)
16 cpus 0.00% (this is BS, i have a friend who has steam on his 2xE5's but oh wait... he virtualizes..)

So that comes to another conclusion..... how many of those 2 cores are actually real 2 cores, and not virtualized like probably a good % of the linux steam users.
2 cpus 61.59% <--- this is the linux users... how many of them are virtualized... no way to answer..




just going by raw numbers... :\
i think this statistic is very bad...
Why? because u got 2 extreme's on 8 core, and the 4core is not separated to include hyper threaded cpu's.
We cant assume all these cpu's are intel's.... cuz there obviously not....

Again . . . what? What product, one year ago, gives you that kind of performance per watt that will fit into an mITX chassis? I admit, the price is higher than makes sense, but as a product it's very nice.

1 yr ago?

i5 Haswell + Z97itx + 970GTX (if nono 760/770GTX) + evga Hadron case.

im sorry i would NEVER build a gaming machine with an i3.
I have seen many games now which utilizes 4 cores, and even some which utilizes 6 cores...

I would not build it out of an i7 tho if primary was gaming, without secondary being some type of encoding / remuxing.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Again . . . what? What product, one year ago, gives you that kind of performance per watt that will fit into an mITX chassis? I admit, the price is higher than makes sense, but as a product it's very nice.

MiniITX case? Plenty. I have used MiniITX that is smaller than 2 of the 3 cases AMD demoed for Nano for years with full length cards.

Its only a tiny niche that needs Mini/Nano cards. The standard is pretty much full sized cards or low profile single slot/no cards.

 

[aigomorla]

MiniITX case? Plenty. I have used MiniITX that is smaller than 2 of the 3 cases AMD demoed for Nano for years with full length cards.

Its only a tiny niche that needs Mini/Nano cards. The standard is pretty much full sized cards or low profile single slot/no cards.

well this conversation is outdated with the inception of the 970 Mini.

You can now do what he asked and keep it small and tight with the performance of a mid-high tier full sized ATX gaming rig.

 

[Idontcare]

The interposer is the alleged reason for poor availability of Fiji parts. AMD can't get enough of the things for larger shipping volumes. That being said, AMD *is* trying an interposer, and Fiji is their test case. If it works out, yes, theoretically, they could use interposers and try die stacking on APU/CPU products as well. I'm not sure how the thermals will work out for them. GPUs tend to run hot, so if it works for Fiji, I don't see why not use it for something on AM4 (for example).

That is a really odd reason for poor availability. Is this something AMD actually went on record stating or is this just a personal opinion?

The reason I ask is because saying you have an interposer supply shortfall is like saying you have a shortage of packaging materials, which while possible is frankly absurd unless supply chain incompetence is afoot.

"Sir, we spent 4 years designing and developing a multi-billion xtor IC for fabrication on a leading edge process node, but James over in packaging forgot to order the damn cardboard boxes in time for us to actually pack these chips for retail distribution, doh! Our multi-billion dollar product offering is now hamstrung for lack of roughly $3k worth of cardboard boxes."

 

[frozentundra123456]

Steam currently has 275 FREE games, of those the vast majority can be played with HD4000 and above iGPUs at 720p or above.

You can play the vast majority of them on a AMD A8-A10 APU at 1080p(especially with Kaveri APUs).




At home I have a main Gaming PC with an i7 3770K and HD7950 with steam installed. I have an SFF HTPC with an AMD APU that also has steam installed to play games on my large TV. Car simulators and other less demanding free games that my wife and children of friends coming home play. Wife using a laptop with steam installed as well, fully capable of playing those free Steam games.

My main Gaming PC has took part in the Steam Hardware Survey ONLY two or three times the last 24 months or so. The HTPC was second with 3 or 4 times if i remember correctly and wife's Laptop took more than 5 (she plays more hours than me by far being home with the kid all day).



See above, my main PC hasn't participated on Steam Hardware Survey the last 6 months or more. There is no data from my main Gaming PC in the current Steam Hardware Survey.

Ohh one more thing,

NOT everyone with a steam account is taking the survey every month. That can happen because you might not open Steam that day the survey it takes place.
I really dont remember when was the last time i took the survey.

So Steam accounts may be 125M, but not everyone takes the survey every month and that also skews the results.

But there are a huge number of people that play facebook games, and also a huge number that play on POGO and other free games that are not on Steam. I dont have the time to look it up, but I bet those two combined are a lot larger that all Steam members combined.

My wife for instance plays some game called gardens of time on facebook. It is a hidden object, building game. That game alone has over a million members, and that is only one game, and not one of the most popular. And nearly every one of my family and relatives plays slots or scrabble or some other such game on facebook and/or pogo, and none of them have a steam account.

 

[Erenhardt]

But there are a huge number of people that play facebook games, and also a huge number that play on POGO and other free games that are not on Steam. I dont have the time to look it up, but I bet those two combined are a lot larger that all Steam members combined.

My wife for instance plays some game called gardens of time on facebook. It is a hidden object, building game. That game alone has over a million members, and that is only one game, and not one of the most popular. And nearly every one of my family and relatives plays slots or scrabble or some other such game on facebook and/or pogo, and none of them have a steam account.

Imagine a game ad on facebook with a playerbase counter at 152 players. Did anyone actually see that happening?
No, because the membership counters for facebook games start at over 1mil.

Psychology... They got you!

 

[ClockHound]

That is a really odd reason for poor availability. Is this something AMD actually went on record stating or is this just a personal opinion?

The reason I ask is because saying you have an interposer supply shortfall is like saying you have a shortage of packaging materials, which while possible is frankly absurd unless supply chain incompetence is afoot.

"Sir, we spent 4 years designing and developing a multi-billion xtor IC for fabrication on a leading edge process node, but James over in packaging forgot to order the damn cardboard boxes in time for us to actually pack these chips for retail distribution, doh! Our multi-billion dollar product offering is now hamstrung for lack of roughly $3k worth of cardboard boxes."

Intel has a similar issue with their 14nm Skylake packing boxes. Only seem compatible with the Euro/Asian delivery systems. (Americans need tougher packing solutions because tuffer trucks). There's a few in North America willing to pay more for adapted 'combo' solutions or settle for the weaker quad sided containers.

Also noticed that this same packing box supply issue has affected ITX Z170 boards. While the SemiCon industry is making these miraculous microscopic breakthroughs, the cardboard foundries can't match that pace of innovation.

However, there are rumors that EUV fiber at 10nm will be ready to ship shipments of 10nm silicon by 2018. 2020 at the latest. 2023 for sure.

 

[ShintaiDK]

well this conversation is outdated with the inception of the 970 Mini.

You can now do what he asked and keep it small and tight with the performance of a mid-high tier full sized ATX gaming rig.

And the 670 mini and the 560TI mini and so on?

It have moved essentially nowhere the last 5 years.

The main issue is storage cages and PSU. As long as these are in the case, something like Mini/Nano cards dont make much sense. Those trying usually end up with no airflow.

 

[AtenRa]

But there are a huge number of people that play facebook games, and also a huge number that play on POGO and other free games that are not on Steam. I dont have the time to look it up, but I bet those two combined are a lot larger that all Steam members combined.

My wife for instance plays some game called gardens of time on facebook. It is a hidden object, building game. That game alone has over a million members, and that is only one game, and not one of the most popular. And nearly every one of my family and relatives plays slots or scrabble or some other such game on facebook and/or pogo, and none of them have a steam account.

I never said people only play on Steam, i said people with iGPUs also play games on Steam.

 

[DrMrLordX]

1 yr ago?

i5 Haswell + Z97itx + 970GTX (if nono 760/770GTX) + evga Hadron case.

If you're content with a slower video card, you can get a GTX 970. If you want something faster that's still in the same perf/watt category, you've got Fury Nano.

And that's why the Nano is a good product. Hell it's faster than a GTX 980 in a lot of benches . . .

well this conversation is outdated with the inception of the 970 Mini.

Again, a fine product if you're content with something that's slower than the Nano.

That is a really odd reason for poor availability. Is this something AMD actually went on record stating or is this just a personal opinion?

Apparently it's a problem with the TSVs, actually:

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/46555/amd-found-solution-low-radeon-r9-fury-stock/index.html

 

[shady28]

I never said people only play on Steam, i said people with iGPUs also play games on Steam.

Maybe put this into context.

Who do you think is more likely to be using steam, someone who has a dGPU or an iGPU?

Anyway, I don't know why you're challenging steam as a valid source for trend analysis given that its purpose is to help developers know what their market (ie their customers) have, which pretty much rules out favoritism on their part. But it doesn't really matter. There are tons of other sources to show that dGPUs are in decline.

I also question the idea that high-end GPUs will dominate the market, an idea that AMD/Nvidia push and many here regurgitate. I don't have time to research it at the moment but I seem to recall seeing average cost of an AIB dGPU going down for the past 5 years.

Sounds to me like the age-old executive tactic of saying "we'll make up for lost sales by selling more expensive stuff". This is a common misdirection type of statement for any business competing in a declining market.

 

[PliotronX]

well this conversation is outdated with the inception of the 970 Mini.

You can now do what he asked and keep it small and tight with the performance of a mid-high tier full sized ATX gaming rig.

Gigabyte though

 

[AtenRa]

Maybe put this into context.

Who do you think is more likely to be using steam, someone who has a dGPU or an iGPU?

Nobody debated about the dGPUs on Steam, but also according to Steam Intel iGPUs are 20%. And you said that nobody with iGPUs play games on Steam, that was my respond to not about dGPUs.

Anyway, I don't know why you're challenging steam as a valid source for trend analysis given that its purpose is to help developers know what their market (ie their customers) have, which pretty much rules out favoritism on their part. But it doesn't really matter. There are tons of other sources to show that dGPUs are in decline.

Ill give you an example why,

On Steam Hardware Survey August 2015, Intel HD4000 (Ivybridge) has an increase of a huge 4.7% vs July 2015.
Are you suggesting that more people buy IvyBridge CPUs in 2015 than Haswell ???
No, that is a nice demonstration of what im saying the last pages, it seems that more people with Ivybridge Desktops/Laptos took the Steam Hardware Survey in August and the HD4000 gained this huge increase.
BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN its a tread of the current market.

I also question the idea that high-end GPUs will dominate the market, an idea that AMD/Nvidia push and many here regurgitate.

Nobody said anything about dGPUs dominate the market, what has been said is that dGPUs will not die because of the rise of the iGPUs.

I don't have time to research it at the moment but I seem to recall seeing average cost of an AIB dGPU going down for the past 5 years.
Sounds to me like the age-old executive tactic of saying "we'll make up for lost sales by selling more expensive stuff". This is a common misdirection type of statement for any business competing in a declining market.

Perhaps you should read my post #201,
NVIDIA with a 16% volume decline had a 9% increase of REVENUE.

 

[StrangerGuy]

NVIDIA with a 16% volume decline had a 9% increase of REVENUE.

After AMD losing an unprecedented half their marketshare, -16% volume of presumably low-margin OEM entry GPUs killed by iGPUs, and given how strongly the high-margin small sized die 960/970 has grown in the Steam Survey which are most likely mid/high-end customers stolen from AMD, and finally with Nvidia's statement of "Revenue for GeForce GPUs grew 51%" = Only just +9% GPU overall revenue growth.

Looks completely sustainable. *sarcasm*

 

[Blitzvogel]

It's hard to see top end dGPUs going away until APUs gain the kind of bandwidth and performance per dollar they offer.

Better yet, individual x86 cores need their own graphics array, and different products could have varying numbers of "blocks" just like GPUs if it could be worked out correctly considering CPU cores have their own needs. It could in theory tie GPU functions closer to what are normally CPU uses like FPU and SIMD calcs.

One Zen Core + 256 Stream Processors = "Block"

 

[aigomorla]

If you're content with a slower video card, you can get a GTX 970. If you want something faster that's still in the same perf/watt category, you've got Fury Nano.

And that's why the Nano is a good product. Hell it's faster than a GTX 980 in a lot of benches . . .

the nano was not out 1 year ago.


And i would NEVER call a 650 dollar video a performance per dollar, which the fury nano is.

The main issue is storage cages and PSU. As long as these are in the case, something like Mini/Nano cards dont make much sense. Those trying usually end up with no airflow.

There are cases.... just not easy to obtain...


If microsoft was to obtain ATi... i would not be surprised if they made it so you could play Xbox games on a Ati card with a special Xbox chip built in.
If they did this.... Nvidia would have issues... imagine playing a AAA Xbox title on your PC via a Special Ati Card you can buy which allows just that.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Ill give you an example why,

On Steam Hardware Survey August 2015, Intel HD4000 (Ivybridge) has an increase of a huge 4.7% vs July 2015.
Are you suggesting that more people buy IvyBridge CPUs in 2015 than Haswell ???
No, that is a nice demonstration of what im saying the last pages, it seems that more people with Ivybridge Desktops/Laptos took the Steam Hardware Survey in August and the HD4000 gained this huge increase.
BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN its a tread of the current market.

My steam hardware survey must be different than yours.
HD4000 (DX11):
April: 6.56%
May: 6.53%
June: 6.47%
July: 6.15%
August: 5.92%

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/

I think you got confused when they reset the videocard stats on the front page. HD4000 is 4.71% of all graphics and 5.92% of all DX11.

 

[ShintaiDK]

There are cases.... just not easy to obtain...


If microsoft was to obtain ATi... i would not be surprised if they made it so you could play Xbox games on a Ati card with a special Xbox chip built in.
If they did this.... Nvidia would have issues... imagine playing a AAA Xbox title on your PC via a Special Ati Card you can buy which allows just that.

At 12.6L its not so small. But it shows why it cant get smaller and you sacrifice a lot on essentially close to nothing compared to MiniITX cases that supports full size cards.

M.2 SSD, no optical, external PSU brick (DC2DC in case) and its suddenly what. 7 Litre?