Has ATI given up the high end race?

[AzN]

Considering Nvidia isn't going to make 280gx2 it looks like AMD might be wearing the performance crown soon.

 

[AzN]

Originally posted by: airhendrix13
I really hope AMD bites Nvidia in the ass with this. The recent release of the GT200 cards is a great example of how Nvidia is getting a little ahead of themselves. It's great that Nvidia is pushing GPU's forward, but the price point these cards are being set at is rediculous.

I think the argument AMD is doing poor isn't true. I think it more has to do with that AMD has had to step back, take a look at where things are going, and reevaluate where they are at. Nvidia and Intel are taking the high-end market, and AMD is just starting to realize that they currently cannot compete there. I think it would be a smart move on AMD's part to take advantage of the high prices of the new high-end products and capture the mid to low-end market.

The fact is most people aren't ready for the new high-end products, and I think AMD is realizing this and is going to do well in the near future, and I hope they do.

And this from someone who has an Intel / Nvidia PC.

Ryan

AMD could definitely compete in GPU market if they had money to compete.

 

[AzN]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Extelleron

Considering that R700 will no doubt outperform GT200,

Please provide proof.

I don't think you need proof considering it's only a tad better than 3870x2

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: Azn


I don't think you need proof considering it's only a tad better than 3870x2

The R700 is only a tad better than the 3870? That is bad news indeed.

Either way, speculation aside. Many sites have noted that AMD will no longer compete in the high end GPU market. So that either means they no something we don't or AMD has been giving that impression.

Certainly last round they had no GPU above mid range and it would seem that the 48xx series will be the same.

I actually think that may be a good move for AMD as more money is to be had at the mid-low range markets and I don't think AMD can afford to fight a battle on 2 fronts.

Judging from the huge loss in market share in the last year or so they really need a new plan.

 

[chizow]

This was posted on Guru3D some time back, but gives direct quotes from some higher ups at both ATI and NV on the subject: GPU Philosophy at AMD/NV

Copies pasted in its entirety:

An interesting story on news.com today. I'll do the blunt copy/paste here as it's really interesting to see this article in it's entire original form. Advanced Micro Devices' ATI graphics chip unit doesn't want to build "huge" chips like rival Nvidia, an executive says.
But an Nvidia exec says smaller isn't always better or more efficient. Such statements will help define how the two chip giants do battle at the high end of the graphics chip market in the coming years.

One of the largest graphics chips yet will be Nvidia's upcoming high-end GTX 280. This is the kind of chip that high-end gaming enthusiasts crave. But great performance often means a large transistor count. And the GTX 280 is expected to have both.

AMD, of course, also intends to deliver extreme graphics technology with its upcoming X2, a follow-on to the current 3870 X2 series. And AMD wants to be clear: its strategy is fundamentally different than Nvidia's.

"We took two chips and put it on one board (X2). By doing that we have a smaller chip that is much more power efficient," said Matt Skynner, vice president of marketing for the graphics products group at AMD.

"We believe this is a much stronger strategy than going for a huge, monolithic chip that is very expensive and eats a lot of power and really can only be used for a small portion of the market," he said. "Scaling that large chip down into the performance segment doesn't make sense--because of the power and because of the size."

Skynner said that AMD tries to design GPUs (graphics processing units) for the mainstream segment of the market, then ratchet up performance by adding GPUs rather than designing one large, very-high-performance chip.

Nvidia's "strategy is to design for the highest performance at all cost. And we believe designing for the sweet spot and then leveraging for the extreme enthusiast market with multiple GPUs is the preferred approach," Skynner said.

This applies to memory too. AMD thinks support for technologies like GDDR5 memory is another way to deliver good performance at a reasonable cost. "You don't need a huge chip with a huge data path to get the bandwidth. You can utilize a technology like GDDR5 to get that bandwidth," Skynner said.

Nvidia tends to favor very-fast, single-chip solutions. Nvidia, of course, has a different take on why it chooses to develop big, fast chips.

"If you take two chips and put them together, you then have to add a bridge chip that allows the two chips to talk to each other...And you can't gang the memory together," said Ujesh Desai, general manager for GeForce products at Nvidia.

"So when you add it all up, you now have the power of two GPUs, the power of the bridge chip, and the power that all of that additional memory consumes. That's why it's too simplistic of an argument to say that two smaller chips is always more efficient."

Desai takes this argument a bit further. "They don't have the money to invest in high-end GPUs anymore. At the high end, there is no prize for second place. If you're going to invest a half-billion dollars--which is what it takes to develop a new enthusiast-level GPU--you have to know you're going to win. You either do it to win, or you don't invest the money."

Personally I think ATI/AMD is saying they're content with mid-range as its convenient for them only because they can't compete on the high-end right now. If/when they close that gap I'm sure you'll hear them change their tune with an "I told you so" and "we planned it all along".

 

[Extelleron]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Azn


I don't think you need proof considering it's only a tad better than 3870x2

The R700 is only a tad better than the 3870? That is bad news indeed.

Either way, speculation aside. Many sites have noted that AMD will no longer compete in the high end GPU market. So that either means they no something we don't or AMD has been giving that impression.

Certainly last round they had no GPU above mid range and it would seem that the 48xx series will be the same.

I actually think that may be a good move for AMD as more money is to be had at the mid-low range markets and I don't think AMD can afford to fight a battle on 2 fronts.

Judging from the huge loss in market share in the last year or so they really need a new plan.

Then there's the question of what ATI has up its sleeves, given that they're on the verge of releasing their new graphics cards based on the new RV770 chip. ATI tells us they're not going to compete in this really high-end of the market with those products.

Rather, they promise we'll get close to the performance of the GTX 200 cards (say within 20%) at dramatically lower prices and power. Certainly that targets a much larger segment of the market, but the worth of that strategy all hinges on its real relative performance. For the high-end, ATI is still a couple months away from the release of their card containing two RV770 GPUs.

We don't know what shape that will take, only that it will combine two GPUs on a card in a substantially different fashion than the Radeon HD 3870 X2, and that ATI tells us that with not-yet-fully optimized drivers it already scores over 6,000 in 3DMark Vantage on Extreme settings. We've heard promises of future greatness before, and reserve judgment until we get the cards in our own hands to run our own tests.

http://www.extremetech.com/art.../0,2845,2320134,00.asp

AMD is embracing the high end, they are going to be putting out the fastest graphics card money can buy with the 4870 X2. I don't know what makes you think that AMD will not have a high-end card when it is right in front of you.

 

[Sylvanas]

Originally posted by: Extelleron

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Azn


I don't think you need proof considering it's only a tad better than 3870x2

The R700 is only a tad better than the 3870? That is bad news indeed.

Either way, speculation aside. Many sites have noted that AMD will no longer compete in the high end GPU market. So that either means they no something we don't or AMD has been giving that impression.

Certainly last round they had no GPU above mid range and it would seem that the 48xx series will be the same.

I actually think that may be a good move for AMD as more money is to be had at the mid-low range markets and I don't think AMD can afford to fight a battle on 2 fronts.

Judging from the huge loss in market share in the last year or so they really need a new plan.

Then there's the question of what ATI has up its sleeves, given that they're on the verge of releasing their new graphics cards based on the new RV770 chip. ATI tells us they're not going to compete in this really high-end of the market with those products.

Rather, they promise we'll get close to the performance of the GTX 200 cards (say within 20%) at dramatically lower prices and power. Certainly that targets a much larger segment of the market, but the worth of that strategy all hinges on its real relative performance. For the high-end, ATI is still a couple months away from the release of their card containing two RV770 GPUs.

We don't know what shape that will take, only that it will combine two GPUs on a card in a substantially different fashion than the Radeon HD 3870 X2, and that ATI tells us that with not-yet-fully optimized drivers it already scores over 6,000 in 3DMark Vantage on Extreme settings. We've heard promises of future greatness before, and reserve judgment until we get the cards in our own hands to run our own tests.

http://www.extremetech.com/art.../0,2845,2320134,00.asp

AMD is embracing the high end, they are going to be putting out the fastest graphics card money can buy with the 4870 X2. I don't know what makes you think that AMD will not have a high-end card when it is right in front of you.

QFT.

As Azn mentioned, Nvidia simply cannot put out a GTX280 GX2 unless you are using Ln2 and plug it directly into a nuclear reactor. Which leaves the 4870X2 which almost definitely be quite a bit faster than the GTX280 and thus take the high end 'crown' and also have stellar midrange (4850 $200?) where nvidia is left to compete with previous gen cards. Whats not to love?

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: Extelleron ATI tells us....

Sigh. Based on what we have seen in the last 2 years. None of what you have said holds water.

I'm not saying it's even a bad thing that AMD drops out of the high end market.

However, they have not had a high end gpu in over 2 years and current news sources seem to indicate that they won't this gen or ever again maybe.

Until I see a review of the 48xx from a reliable source it's just paper. Not too mention that even your "rumors" suggest that it's not going to compete with the GT280 so that just reinforces what this thread is about.

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

I truly hope AMD wipes the floor with NVIDIA, as competition is what drives the computer market in our favor. However, I simply will not rely on unfounded rumors. We saw what happened last round with the R600.

 

[manko]

Here's your answer from ATI

RV7700 vs. GTX200

1.95x Performance/W

2.8x Performance/mm²

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: manko
Here's your answer from ATI

RV7700 vs. GTX200

1.95x Performance/W

2.8x Performance/mm²

Yeah it looks like the 4850 is targeted at the 8800GT, which came out a while ago.

They don't plan to compete with the GT200 series for at least 2 months.

 

[schneiderguy]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

gt200 on 55nm wouldn't be small enough to make a dual GPU card. 45/40nm won't be ready for a while. (I think TSMC is going straight to 40nm?)

 

[chewietobbacca]

GT200 @ 55nm will be around G80 core size or thereabouts and they couldn't fit a G80 dual chip card until G92 so I doubt they will do that either unless they make mandatory or TEC cooling a minimum. More likely is they'll have to wait for 40nm from TSMC for a dual chip card / refresh of this core. 55nm is more likely to save margins as TSMC seems to have had good results with 55nm w/ ATI cards

 

[PeteRoy]

I think the OP is right, Nvidia might be heading to where Creative is, Creative makes soundcards but their not really necessary since every motherboards comes with HD sound in it built in and included in the price.

GPU in the future could be built in the CPU and Nvidia could be left alone, unless their CUDA project goes well and Nvidia will become a general purpose processor company.

 

[Sylvanas]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Extelleron ATI tells us....

Sigh. Based on what we have seen in the last 2 years. None of what you have said holds water.

I'm not saying it's even a bad thing that AMD drops out of the high end market.

However, they have not had a high end gpu in over 2 years and current news sources seem to indicate that they won't this gen or ever again maybe.

Until I see a review of the 48xx from a reliable source it's just paper. Not too mention that even your "rumors" suggest that it's not going to compete with the GT280 so that just reinforces what this thread is about.

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

I truly hope AMD wipes the floor with NVIDIA, as competition is what drives the computer market in our favor. However, I simply will not rely on unfounded rumors. We saw what happened last round with the R600.

You obviously haven't been reading. ATI does have a high end- thats what the 3870X2 is and the 4870X2 will carry on from where it left off. The GTX280 @ 55nm will still be the size of a G80 and would still make it unfeasible to do a GX2 considering the yields with monolithic chips like this.

Nvidia is not going to end like Creative since it does not have an absolute monopoly and as I mentioned ATI's high end is likely to take the crown this time round. We also have Intel entering the market relatively soon which will put a new spin on the GPU industry in years to come.

 

[BFG10K]

HD 3870 X2 was a slightly better multi-GPU solution than 9800 GX2 / 7950 GX2 IMO.

Sure but it was inferior to a single 8800 GTX/Ultra. Therein lies the problem.

It integrated everything on to one PCB and, according to reviewers, appeared and acted like a single-GPU card for the most part.

It was only a "single" card by virtue of supporting multi-monitor and only appearing once in Windows Device Manager. Under the hood it still behaved exactly the same as any other AFR based multi-GPU solution with exactly the same limitations and problems.

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: BFG10K

HD 3870 X2 was a slightly better multi-GPU solution than 9800 GX2 / 7950 GX2 IMO.

Sure but it was inferior to a single 8800 GTX/Ultra. Therein lies the problem.

I think you're not realizing that just because you don't have the absolute fastest card made, doesn't mean you aren't making a highend card. Or were you saying that nVidia made no highend cards, while the X1900XTX was the fastest card available?

 

[biostud]

No matter what if you want better graphics you need more computing power. That equals more transistors and working at higher frequencies. Whether you choose a single GPU solution or a multi GPU solution you need a certain amount of transistors running at a certain speed using a certain amount of power. No matter how much you optimize your chip design you will reach a performance/watt limit. AFAIK every new chip actually improves performance/watt. If performance increase 80-90% and power consumption rises 20-30% the performance/watt is better.

I wonder if the GT200 is so large that they cannot run the shader domains as fast as the g92 because the GT200 either would produce to much heat or because of production limitations due to the size of the chip. If the chip has become so large that it becomes a hindrance to its performance, then it doesn't seem to be the best solution. On the other hand the multi-GPU solution currently has problems with scaling, microstuttering, memory usage and it will be very interesting to see if the 4870x2 card really has overcome these problems.

If we disregard the SLI/CF issues then the GT200 seems to trade blows the the 9800GX2 and in that regard doesn't bring anything new to the table except for a heavy price tag. But that paying the extra $ might be worth it to some and running GT200 in SLI is the fastest solution you can get for money.

If AMD has found a way to overcome the CF problems on a single card, then it definitely seems to be the way of the future. The next step will be to overcome CF problems using more than one card.

 

[Extelleron]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Extelleron ATI tells us....

Sigh. Based on what we have seen in the last 2 years. None of what you have said holds water.

I'm not saying it's even a bad thing that AMD drops out of the high end market.

However, they have not had a high end gpu in over 2 years and current news sources seem to indicate that they won't this gen or ever again maybe.

Until I see a review of the 48xx from a reliable source it's just paper. Not too mention that even your "rumors" suggest that it's not going to compete with the GT280 so that just reinforces what this thread is about.

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

I truly hope AMD wipes the floor with NVIDIA, as competition is what drives the computer market in our favor. However, I simply will not rely on unfounded rumors. We saw what happened last round with the R600.

So you think AMD is completely lying about what they will do in the next few months?

The only thing you can't necessarily believe from AMD is the performance of the 4870 X2 - supposedly over 6,000 in Vantage Extreme. But you can certainly take what they say as confirmation that they will be launching a new high end part - the 4870 X2 - in the very near future (from other rumors we know August). Whether or not that card will compete with the GTX 280 in performance is another story. For me that's not even a question, I'm sure it will compete or be faster, but you are entitled to your opinion as well.

But no matter what you say - AMD will have a card that targets GT200 & 9800 GX2.

And as schneiderguy said, there is no way nVidia could build a dual-chip GT200 card, even on 55nm. 55nm GT200 would be 412mm^2 if scaling was perfect and that's far too large to put two on one card. Given that scaling is never perfect, it's likely it will be in the region of 450mm^2 or so - not far from the size of G80.

HD 4850 will be targeted at 8800GT, but that does not mean it will perform at 8800GT levels. In reality it will perform at 8800GTS / 9800GTX levels or higher. Just like HD 4870 is targeted at 9800GTX but it is really 30-50% faster.

 

[happy medium]

Originally posted by: Extelleron

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Extelleron ATI tells us....

Sigh. Based on what we have seen in the last 2 years. None of what you have said holds water.

I'm not saying it's even a bad thing that AMD drops out of the high end market.

However, they have not had a high end gpu in over 2 years and current news sources seem to indicate that they won't this gen or ever again maybe.

Until I see a review of the 48xx from a reliable source it's just paper. Not too mention that even your "rumors" suggest that it's not going to compete with the GT280 so that just reinforces what this thread is about.

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

I truly hope AMD wipes the floor with NVIDIA, as competition is what drives the computer market in our favor. However, I simply will not rely on unfounded rumors. We saw what happened last round with the R600.

So you think AMD is completely lying about what they will do in the next few months?

The only thing you can't necessarily believe from AMD is the performance of the 4870 X2 - supposedly over 6,000 in Vantage Extreme. But you can certainly take what they say as confirmation that they will be launching a new high end part - the 4870 X2 - in the very near future (from other rumors we know August). Whether or not that card will compete with the GTX 280 in performance is another story. For me that's not even a question, I'm sure it will compete or be faster, but you are entitled to your opinion as well.

But no matter what you say - AMD will have a card that targets GT200 & 9800 GX2.

And as schneiderguy said, there is no way nVidia could build a dual-chip GT200 card, even on 55nm. 55nm GT200 would be 412mm^2 if scaling was perfect and that's far too large to put two on one card. Given that scaling is never perfect, it's likely it will be in the region of 450mm^2 or so - not far from the size of G80.

HD 4850 will be targeted at 8800GT, but that does not mean it will perform at 8800GT levels. In reality it will perform at 8800GTS / 9800GTX levels or higher. Just like HD 4870 is targeted at 9800GTX but it is really 30-50% faster.

I love to see a link to these benchmarks!!! Link please!!

 

[Extelleron]

Originally posted by: happy medium

Originally posted by: Extelleron

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Extelleron ATI tells us....

Sigh. Based on what we have seen in the last 2 years. None of what you have said holds water.

I'm not saying it's even a bad thing that AMD drops out of the high end market.

However, they have not had a high end gpu in over 2 years and current news sources seem to indicate that they won't this gen or ever again maybe.

Until I see a review of the 48xx from a reliable source it's just paper. Not too mention that even your "rumors" suggest that it's not going to compete with the GT280 so that just reinforces what this thread is about.

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

I truly hope AMD wipes the floor with NVIDIA, as competition is what drives the computer market in our favor. However, I simply will not rely on unfounded rumors. We saw what happened last round with the R600.

So you think AMD is completely lying about what they will do in the next few months?

The only thing you can't necessarily believe from AMD is the performance of the 4870 X2 - supposedly over 6,000 in Vantage Extreme. But you can certainly take what they say as confirmation that they will be launching a new high end part - the 4870 X2 - in the very near future (from other rumors we know August). Whether or not that card will compete with the GTX 280 in performance is another story. For me that's not even a question, I'm sure it will compete or be faster, but you are entitled to your opinion as well.

But no matter what you say - AMD will have a card that targets GT200 & 9800 GX2.

And as schneiderguy said, there is no way nVidia could build a dual-chip GT200 card, even on 55nm. 55nm GT200 would be 412mm^2 if scaling was perfect and that's far too large to put two on one card. Given that scaling is never perfect, it's likely it will be in the region of 450mm^2 or so - not far from the size of G80.

<HD 4850 will be targeted at 8800GT, but that does not mean it will perform at 8800GT levels. In reality it will perform at 8800GTS / 9800GTX levels or higher. Just like HD 4870 is targeted at 9800GTX but it is really 30-50% faster.

I love to see a link to these benchmarks!!! Link please!!

http://www.nordichardware.com/news,7854.html

From AMD, so take it with a grain of salt, but the most accurate thing we have now.

 

[Extelleron]

Originally posted by: schneiderguy

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Besides a die shrunk 280 would easily make a GT280X2. So that deletes you argument as well.

gt200 on 55nm wouldn't be small enough to make a dual GPU card. 45/40nm won't be ready for a while. (I think TSMC is going straight to 40nm?)

TSMC is definitely going with a 40nm node, I don't know if they will offer 45nm. If they do AMD and nVidia would probably skip it and go to 40nm anyway.

40nm should be ready in early 2009. Then 32nm will be coming in 2010.

I'm pretty sure that nVidia's next GPU will be multi-GPU, I don't know whether it will be a derivative of GT200 or it will be a new architecture. It seems possible to me that nVidia will launch a refresh of GT200 on 55nm and then launch their new architecture on a 40nm process in late 2009. nVidia has stated that they will use GDDR5 on not their next chip, but the chip after that, in 2009, so this makes sense. nVidia's next chip will be 55nm GT200, with same old GDDR3, then the next gen will come with GDDR5. Likely this architecture would support DirectX 11.

 

[evolucion8]

Originally posted by: BFG10K

Sure but it was inferior to a single 8800 GTX/Ultra. Therein lies the problem.

Only inferior in gaming scenarios in which the X2 didn't scale properly or when it had driver issues with a game (Quake Wars for example). With recent drivers optimizations, the HD 3870 has been performing so close to the 8800GT that I couldn't imagine why an X2 with it's faster core clock cannot outperform a single GTX which isn't much faster than a 8800GT.

There some people believing that ATi will quit the high end market, bear in mind that the money isn't in the high end market, it is in the midrange and low end/OEM, because not everybody has 600 bucks to burn for fun, the profits are lower and the SKU's amounts aren't millions. Is just that ATi's high end approach is different using multi GPU solutions which is cheaper to manufacture and hence, cheaper for the consumer, of course it will also have more issues typical of the SLI/Crossfire platform, but at this point, ATi's driver quality is getting better, surpassing the Creative's style nVidia drivers.

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: Sylvanas

You obviously haven't been reading. ATI does have a high end- thats what the 3870X2 is

You obviously haven't been reading. The 3870 uses two GPUs. So that's not a high end GPU and when matched against two GPUs from NVIDIA (9800GX2) it's not even close.

I suppose we will have to wait until the R700 comes out to see what they truly have planned for the high end.

 

[evolucion8]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Sylvanas

You obviously haven't been reading. ATI does have a high end- thats what the 3870X2 is

You obviously haven't been reading. The 3870 uses two GPUs. So that's not a high end GPU and when matched against two GPUs from NVIDIA (9800GX2) it's not even close.

I suppose we will have to wait until the R700 comes out to see what they truly have planned for the high end.

ATi stated that they no longer will manufacture huge dies for high ends, that they will use the X2 concept which is nice, the X2 is the high end card of ATi, it was able to keep up and outperform the previous high end GPU's like the 8800GTX/Ultra, I don't think that ATi is in good position to make a big fat GPU like nVidia did, so I don't think that they will change the concept either. nVidia launched the GX2 just to steal the light from ATi and they did it!. GX2 is not high end, is like some sort of ultra high end card, another type of market where nVidia has no competition. (Quad Crossfire may be). Is just plain wrong to call an X2 midrange when it's performance is better than a 8800GTX or Ultra (Except in games where Crossfire doesn't scale well or where driver issues exists)

 

[airhendrix13]

If ATi wants to compete in the high-end market, the X2 strategy won't cut it, atleast not for long. Sure it's easier and cheaper for ATi, but Nvidia is just as capable of doing the same thing and likely at reasonable cost. The only reason Nvidia's new high-end cards cost so much is because there isn't that much competition at that level.

An X2 card will keep ATi in the game for a little while, but they really need something more progressive than that.

Like I've said before, I think the way to go is to research into cooler / energy efficient GPU's, and throwing 2 of the same card into 1 package isn't accomplishing this.