The vram debate has heated up in the last few weeks and I've been thinking about starting a thread with some user input. The overwhelming majority of games out there will run just fine on a single screen with 1.5GB of vram. I'm curious about the few games that might push that though. Benchmarks would go a long way in settling the matter.
I'll try and make time in the next couple days to start a thread and see if we can get some data input from Anandtech members.
I would go one step further and say 1GB is enough if you are willing to live with lesser MSAA or less-intensive AA types, for 1080p or less.
The false logic of people in this thread completely ignores WHY it is that VRAM requirements have gone up even during the lifetime of the XBOX360 and PS3.
Part of it is that PC games sometimes get higher-res textures and such, true.
But part of it is because console programmers got more efficient as they climbed the learning curve.
And lastly, and this is VERY important: resolutions went up. 6 years ago, many people were gaming at lower resolutions than they are today. This explains a huge part of why VRAM requirements went up. 1366x768 is half the resolution of 1080p for instance. Six years ago I was at 1280x1024, which is about 57% of 1920x1200.
If you plan to keep your current resolution for the next 2 years, chances are you will not need more than whatever VRAM you've already got, unless you are already hitting the VRAM wall today and can't bear the thought of turning down AA a little or to use a less stressful AA style. New consoles won't come out at affordable prices until 2+ years from now, so most games are unlikely to really push VRAM until then, mods and ultrahighrez texture packs notwithstanding.
I also think that you rapidly get diminishing returns on VRAM-hogging stuff like AA and high-rez texture packs, btw. Going from 0x to 2x MSAA is nice, and maybe even 2x to 4x MSAA can be a notable difference, but 4x to 8x MSAA won't make nearly as much of a difference. Just as one example.
Also, for many (most?) people, by the time their VRAM becomes a limiting factor in more than a few games, the GPU itself will likely be outdated anyway. I'd rather have a fast card with 1GB VRAM than a medium-speed card with 1.5GB VRAM for instance, because by the time 1GB VRAM really isn't enough, that medium-speed 1.5GB VRAM card will likely be too slow anyway. A little extra VRAM will not do much to "futureproof" yourself... not that I believe in the concept of futureproofing yourself in an industry as fast-moving as GPUs anyway. (All bets are off if you decide on a resolution upgrade of course.)
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