Got Gas? U.S. Economy to Worsen as Gas Prices Skyrocket

[CycloWizard]

As transportation costs increase, offshoring will decrease. This just another victory for Obama in the war for (on?) jobs!!!

 

[colonel]

That damn Obama and his oil baron minions...

you forgot the last year of Bush....

 

[Londo_Jowo]

One station and it was for Plus gas which was 40 cents higher than regular. Dave needs to stop lying.

AAA agrees with your assessment that Dave is lying.

http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/ILmetro.asp

 

[CycloWizard]

LOL. The progressives have been explaining this for years and you are always against them. But here you are now complaining what your policies have done.

I saw an estimate today that if the normal wealth distribution in the country pre-Reagan had held steady, rather than the top 20% getting all the new growth after inflation and the top 1% getting 75%-80% of it, that the average income in the US today would be three times higher than it is. Gee, I wonder why you are seeing yourself stagnant.

LOL. I saw something yesterday on a random website which I won't link to which said people with progressive tendencies have single-digit IQs. Gee, I wonder why people don't buy in to all of your random, completely unsupported claims.

 

[Carmen813]

Coincidence?

12/1/2010
"Obama administration reimposes offshore oil drilling ban"
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/post-carbon/2010/12/obama_administration_will_ban.html

That has nothing to do with these price spikes.

 

[The-Noid]

That has nothing to do with these price spikes.

Never use words like nothing, impossible or never. Makes your argument weak. Is it a big part, probably not. It is possible it is one part of a larger puzzle that is O & G prices worldwide, yes.

 

[mechBgon]

In many countries, $4/gallon would be a huge price drop. Long-term, I think America should have a look at how we design communities. How far is your commute? Why does it have to be that far? How much is that costing per day? Do you have reasonable options besides driving?

Personally, my car got voted off the island by my four bicycles, two of which are commuters, the other two being the raceday bikes. Not everyone can get away with the car-free lifestyle, but it works OK for me as a single guy with no dependents.

 

[Darwin333]

And the other side, "Spill, baby, spill!"

So we offshore the jobs and the pollution to places that have much less regulations in place to avoid a very rare catastrophe while increasing the chances that another very rare catastrophe might occur due to the increased tanker traffic? I am no fan of the dangers of coal mining either but it is sorta necessary in the near/mid-term if we wish to continue our current lifestyle.

 

[CycloWizard]

In many countries, $4/gallon would be a huge price drop. Long-term, I think America should have a look at how we design communities. How far is your commute? Why does it have to be that far? How much is that costing per day? Do you have reasonable options besides driving?

Personally, my car got voted off the island by my four bicycles, two of which are commuters, the other two being the raceday bikes. Not everyone can get away with the car-free lifestyle, but it works OK for me as a single guy with no dependents.

The reason urban planning has been put by the wayside is simple: people with families don't want to live in the projects. If you build a project, the people in the area with kids and a bit of money will leave. Since the city is already well established and relatively large at this point, they will have to move outside the city to the suburbs (indeed, this is how many suburbs got started). They will then have to commute to the center of the city to continue working at their present jobs. After a long enough time, many of the jobs will also move to the suburbs to shorten the commute. This has an inevitable effect on the people in the projects, who were mostly manning retail jobs to support the white collar workers working in the downtown area: they will become unemployed because there aren't enough customers anymore. The inner city will fall into decline as the people in the projects turn to crime to support themselves. This causes many of the young, single white-collar workers to become uncomfortable and flee to the suburbs, causing a further decline in the downtown area. Finally, the remaining white collars working in the city will refuse to pay city taxes on their earnings and threaten to leave. The city has no choice but to capitulate and the city's demise is inevitable. This is the life cycle of St. Louis from the late 1950's to the present day (with the tax bit passing this past November). I wager Detroit is in some part of this process, though probably not as advanced if the most recent crime statistics are any indication. I will also predict that San Francisco will be the next "great city" in the US to follow this trend based on their latest policies and rudimentary observations.

In short, urban planning has been well understood for a very long time. Cities have been planned and laid out with foresight since the Roman Empire. However, government sticks its nose in and breaks up a good thing in for the "greater good," causing a slow, but inevitable, decline as the city circles the drain. That's a long-winded explanation of why commutes have increased over time (the first part of the life cycle - the exodus to the burbs), but will eventually decrease with the completion of the life cycle.

 

[K1052]

The Romans generally didn't have to contend with the development of the automobile and interstates, which in conjunction with the baby boom largely caused white flight to the suburbs. St. Louis is also a prime example of a city that failed to diversify economically enough and has suffered the consequences...just like Detroit.

In cities with viable urban cores, good transportation systems, and sufficiently diverse economic strength the urban renewal of the last 25 years has been astonishing. New York and Chicago both are excellent examples.

 

[chucky2]

Chicago "renewed" all right. Daley got rid of the blacks in the projects by getting them out of the city and into the suburbs. Enter rich folks back to the city (after the $400k condo's went in of course), and enter the "little darlings" to other towns near the city, making those towns super happy.

Then the people in those towns saw what was coming - and, they were absolutely right, because it did come - and those that could, got the F out before their property values stagnated relative to where they could still live in the relative area but it'd still be nice.

Chicago is an excellent example, for exactly what CycloWizard just posted.

From what I heard of St. Louis when I lived there, they basically got greedy on taxes back when it was booming, and the business decided, "F it, we're out". Once the businesses left, St. Louis as it was went downhill. Witness E. St. Louis, a wonderful place to visit...

Chuck

 

[disappoint]

Well it's a good thing our leaders are busy putting people back to work fortifying the electrical grid and building nuclear power plants to support the future electrically run vehicles for whenever it is oil runs out rather than sitting on their hands collecting our tax money or bickering with each other over partisan bullshit right?

 

[dmcowen674]

In many countries, $4/gallon would be a huge price drop.

Wow a Mech sighting in P&N

 

[Nemesis 1]

I wonder what the true breaking point of the American public is. I'm pretty close to my own breaking point, here. I've made more money each year for the past five years, and I have almost nothing to show for it. I'm getting kind of sick of it.

It won't be long now . As 2011 is the year of the river of tears. Its going to be so horriable none will bare it.

 

[ayabe]

Demand is still low and supply is still high, it's speculation. We're talking at least 50-60% of the price per barrel here. The price in Britain is at an all time high, before the coming tax increases they're looking at next year.

But at least a few thousand big shots are making their millions....

 

[CycloWizard]

The Romans generally didn't have to contend with the development of the automobile and interstates, which in conjunction with the baby boom largely caused white flight to the suburbs. St. Louis is also a prime example of a city that failed to diversify economically enough and has suffered the consequences...just like Detroit.

In cities with viable urban cores, good transportation systems, and sufficiently diverse economic strength the urban renewal of the last 25 years has been astonishing. New York and Chicago both are excellent examples.

The St. Louis area is doing well economically - it is St. Louis City which is not. You can draw whatever conclusions you want from that.

 

[CPA]

Obama's, who else?

Then where is your Drive for Five thread? I think you need a new one, this time with the slant towards Obama, instead of Bush.

 

[The-Noid]

Demand is still low and supply is still high, it's speculation. We're talking at least 50-60% of the price per barrel here. The price in Britain is at an all time high, before the coming tax increases they're looking at next year.

But at least a few thousand big shots are making their millions....

Again, where do you idiots get your stats from.

OECD predicts oil supply to be 1MM per day less than oil demand worldwide.
IEA report.

Global oil product demand is revised up by 130 kb/d to 87.4 mb/d in 2010, and by 260 kb/d to 88.8 mb/d in 2011, on stronger data from OECD North America and non-OECD Asia. Growth in 2010 (+2.5 mb/d y-o-y) is largely driven by buoyant gasoil demand, notably in 3Q10, but expansion should slow to +1.3 mb/d in 2011 as temporarily supportive factors fade.

Global oil supply rose by 0.4 mb/d to 88.1 mb/d in November, largely due to increased non-OPEC production, notably from Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil. Non-OPEC supply now averages 52.8 mb/d in 2010 and 53.4 mb/d in 2011, representing growth of 1.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. OPEC NGLs output is seen averaging 5.3 mb/d this year and 5.8 mb/d in 2011.

I guess because three guys on a message board say that there is lots of excess supply there must be.

Even if all the spigots in the world are running at full keel we are looking at 100mm bp/d and that assumes no failures in transportation or ability to pump.

 

[Acanthus]

Again, where do you idiots get your stats from.

OECD predicts oil supply to be 1MM per day less than oil demand worldwide.
IEA report.

Global oil product demand is revised up by 130 kb/d to 87.4 mb/d in 2010, and by 260 kb/d to 88.8 mb/d in 2011, on stronger data from OECD North America and non-OECD Asia. Growth in 2010 (+2.5 mb/d y-o-y) is largely driven by buoyant gasoil demand, notably in 3Q10, but expansion should slow to +1.3 mb/d in 2011 as temporarily supportive factors fade.

Global oil supply rose by 0.4 mb/d to 88.1 mb/d in November, largely due to increased non-OPEC production, notably from Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil. Non-OPEC supply now averages 52.8 mb/d in 2010 and 53.4 mb/d in 2011, representing growth of 1.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. OPEC NGLs output is seen averaging 5.3 mb/d this year and 5.8 mb/d in 2011.

I guess because three guys on a message board say that there is lots of excess supply there must be.

Even if all the spigots in the world are running at full keel we are looking at 100mm bp/d and that assumes no failures in transportation or ability to pump.

That is an impossibly hard prediction to make. What if unemployment shoots up to 15%?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

When things start getting near $6, you'll see long haujl trucking moving to natural gas which in turn reduces demand for oil. There is a ceiling if it is just temporary.

 

[ayabe]

Again, where do you idiots get your stats from.

OECD predicts oil supply to be 1MM per day less than oil demand worldwide.
IEA report.

Global oil product demand is revised up by 130 kb/d to 87.4 mb/d in 2010, and by 260 kb/d to 88.8 mb/d in 2011, on stronger data from OECD North America and non-OECD Asia. Growth in 2010 (+2.5 mb/d y-o-y) is largely driven by buoyant gasoil demand, notably in 3Q10, but expansion should slow to +1.3 mb/d in 2011 as temporarily supportive factors fade.

Global oil supply rose by 0.4 mb/d to 88.1 mb/d in November, largely due to increased non-OPEC production, notably from Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil. Non-OPEC supply now averages 52.8 mb/d in 2010 and 53.4 mb/d in 2011, representing growth of 1.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. OPEC NGLs output is seen averaging 5.3 mb/d this year and 5.8 mb/d in 2011.

I guess because three guys on a message board say that there is lots of excess supply there must be.

Even if all the spigots in the world are running at full keel we are looking at 100mm bp/d and that assumes no failures in transportation or ability to pump.

I guess all it takes is some guy googling some shit without interpreting it to determine there's no excess supply.

I'll take it from the supply masters at OPEC, thanks.

OPEC on Friday increased fractionally its oil demand forecast for 2011 and said high inventories and spare capacity should be enough to shield against any eventualities.

"Given the existing level of excess inventories, ample crude oil spare production capacity and idle refinery capacity, the market is expected to have a robust cushion against any sudden surge in demand or disruption in supply," it said in its latest monthly report.

Adding to expectations the producer group will leave output unchanged when it meets in Quito on Saturday, it said world oil demand in 2011 would rise by 1.18 million bpd, 10,000 bpd more than it expected a month ago.

Non-OPEC supply next year was forecast at 52.62 million bpd, 100,000 bpd more than the previous forecast.

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53483920101210

Slight uptick in demand in Nov isn't any reason for the 20% jump since August in prices...$75-->~$90. The fundamentals don't support this price, period.

 

[blackangst1]

Holy shit a commodity is fluctuating in price!

 

[epidemis]

Whiners. Suck it up for not introducing gasoline taxes while time was! Now you get to enjoy a oil price shock!

 

[The-Noid]

That is an impossibly hard prediction to make. What if unemployment shoots up to 15%?

Then the price goes down, quickly...like it did in 2008.

If it is speculation deliver more oil or if everyone has the wrong forecast it still tanks.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

I wonder what the true breaking point of the American public is. I'm pretty close to my own breaking point, here. I've made more money each year for the past five years, and I have almost nothing to show for it. I'm getting kind of sick of it.

Most people are under a spell of hypnosis. There is no breaking point for them.