Got Gas? U.S. Economy to Worsen as Gas Prices Skyrocket

[K1052]

The St. Louis area is doing well economically - it is St. Louis City which is not. You can draw whatever conclusions you want from that.

Just like there are prosperous areas outside Detroit. Metro areas need to be considered on the whole including the urban core.

 

[bfdd]

We need to stop importing gasoline, oil prices lol. The biggest reason our gas prices are higher and will go higher is because of the cost to import gasoline. We used to NEVER import gasoline, only raw crude. That changed during the Bush Administration and it's because hippies fight tooth and nail to shut down any sort of energy production, ie refineries, which are very much needed for jobs, keeping energy costs down, etc. I believe there's a new refinery springing up in South or North Dakota. Like the first one in 20+ years.

 

[dmcowen674]

The gas websites are whack

They say prices here are falling yet every station is raising prices a nickel a day. Most are close to $3.75 with some just under $4 at $3.89

 

[Rebel44]

The gas websites are whack

They say prices here are falling yet every station is raising prices a nickel a day. Most are close to $3.75 with some just under $4 at $3.89

People is USA should IMO stop whining about gas prices - it much more expensive in most other countries (I pay around 7$ per gallon).

btw.: Oil would be much cheaper if USA didnt consume almost 25% of all oil.

 

[dmcowen674]

People is USA should IMO stop whining about gas prices - it much more expensive in most other countries (I pay around 7$ per gallon).

Give it a rest, what do you drive, two blocks?

Use a damn bicycle and stop whining

 

[Rebel44]

Give it a rest, what do you drive, two blocks?

Use a damn bicycle and stop whining

2 blocks? Haha, that would be great.

I travel 25+ miles to work (most of the time using mass transport).

 

[CycloWizard]

The gas websites are whack

They say prices here are falling yet every station is raising prices a nickel a day. Most are close to $3.75 with some just under $4 at $3.89

Yes, let's disregard all those "whack" facts in favor of some anecdotal crap from the internet's most reliable source for gas prices - you.

 

[CLite]

As part of our business we get a very in-depth weekly business digest on worldwide refining from Hydro carbon publishing. If you want to know the exact reason for the recent spot price increases in the US I can copy some of it.

"Spot product prices soared across the country in the week of Dec. 3, as markets were supported by cold weather, tight supplies, and refinery maintenance." This is despite the fact that gasoline stocks rose by 561K bbl to 210.2MM bbl, despite refinery utilization dropping 2.9% to 82.6%. This rise in inventory is probably mainly focused in the gulf however, as the NYC area suffered from diverted shipments by Nigeria, and the transatlantic arbitrage suffered due to rising European fuel prices. California also spiked due to two refinery maintenance problems, a FCCU malfunction at Torrance and a CDU being shut down at Anacortes. I won't bother summarizing the rest of the 37 pages which covers Asian and European markets. Also, unfortunately I'm 3rd in line for receiving the publication we rotate around the company so I don't have the latest.

Anyways, those are some of the more relevant facts and I will now depart the thread so dmcowen can keep spouting nonsense.

 

[dmcowen674]

2 blocks? Haha, that would be great.

I travel 25+ miles to work (most of the time using mass transport).

That's because whatever dinky country you are in the whole thing has mass transit. This country is considerably larger.

Hell, two states (Wisconsin and Ohio) turned down mass transit projects after they voted in Republicans and now bitching because they won't get the money.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Clite, thank you for your post.

 

[bfdd]

As part of our business we get a very in-depth weekly business digest on worldwide refining from Hydro carbon publishing. If you want to know the exact reason for the recent spot price increases in the US I can copy some of it.

"Spot product prices soared across the country in the week of Dec. 3, as markets were supported by cold weather, tight supplies, and refinery maintenance." This is despite a fact in the rise of gasoline stocks by 561K bbl to 210.2MM bbl, despite refinery utilization dropping 2.9% to 82.6%. This rise is inventory is probably mainly focused in the gulf however, as the NYC area suffered from diverted shipments by Nigeria, and the transatlantic arbitrage suffered due to rising European fuel prices. California also spiked due to two refinery maintenance problems, a FCCU malfunction at Torrance and a CDU being shut down at Anacortes. I won't bother summarizing the rest of the 37 pages which covers Asian and European markets. Also, unfortunately I'm 3rd in line for receiving the publication we rotate around the company so I don't have the latest.

Anyways, those are some of the more relevant facts and I will now depart the thread so dmcowen can keep spouting nonsense.

God the Torrance refinery is such a shit hole. Seriously I don't know how Exxon still has that place open. Worst refinery I ever worked at. Like I said though we need to stop importing gasoline. We'd see a big drop if we could refine more raw product vs importing refined product.

 

[CLite]

God the Torrance refinery is such a shit hole. Seriously I don't know how Exxon still has that place open. Worst refinery I ever worked at. Like I said though we need to stop importing gasoline. We'd see a big drop if we could refine more raw product vs importing refined product.

There are far worse refineries believe it or not, haha.

The gasoline import mainly comes from the balance of east coast refining versus Europe. In general we produce diesel and ship it to Europe and they produce gasoline and ship it to us. We have a lot of heavy crude refining power on the East coast (to deal with South American crude) and it wouldn't make sense to retool to produce more gas than diesel, the transatlantic trade really works out well for both parties. It takes far more energy (and equipment capital costs) to reformulate the gasoline/diesel distillates coming from the towers than it takes to ship them across the Atlantic.

On a side note this is why diesel will never take 100% of the market, while it might contain more energy per gallon, the prices will naturally balance as you just can't turn gasoline into diesel with the snap of a finger. The energy markets balance the price of the two products very well with the transatlantic arbitrage.

 

[Saint Nick]

What universe are you guys in? Gas has been the same price here most of the year, except for earlier this year when it was a $1.80...

And, yes, Murloc is dead on. Fat American women need to stop buying worthless crap and go walk somewhere for once.

 

[bfdd]

There are far worse refineries believe it or not, haha.

The gasoline import mainly comes from the balance of east coast refining versus Europe. In general we produce diesel and ship it to Europe and they produce gasoline and ship it to us. We have a lot of heavy crude refining power on the East coast (to deal with South American crude) and it wouldn't make sense to retool to produce more gas than diesel, the transatlantic trade really works out well for both parties. It takes far more energy (and equipment capital costs) to reformulate the gasoline/diesel distillates coming from the towers than it takes to ship them across the Atlantic.

On a side note this is why diesel will never take 100% of the market, while it might contain more energy per gallon, the prices will naturally balance as you just can't turn gasoline into diesel with the snap of a finger. The energy markets balance the price of the two products very well with the transatlantic arbitrage.

I could have swore we stopped importing gasoline 20+ years ago and just started reimporting gasoline in the early 2000s again. When we saw the first big jump in gas prices I remember hearing about us importing gasoline for the first time in years because we cannot refine what is needed. I know bout the diesel thing, it's the same crap with coke and China/Japan. Also, worse than ExxonMobil in Torrance? I haven't worked at any

I'm also not saying we need to retool current refineries, I'm saying we need to build a few new refineries.

 

[The-Noid]

The DOE reported that crude oil stocks fell by a sharp 9.854 million barrels in the last week to 346.018 million barrels. Dow Jones was looking for a drop of -2.7 million barrels, and we were only expecting a drop of -2 million to -3 million barrels.

Gasoline supplies did manage to grow by 809,000 barrels to over 214.7 million barrels, but Dow Jones was calling for a gain of 1.9 million barrels. Distillates rose by 1.094 million barrels and Dow Jones was calling for -200,000 barrels as the reading.

Definitely not a demand problem...

Goldman Oil forecast updated for 2011 to $120/barrel.

 

[bfdd]

Production always slows at this time of the year.

 

[CLite]

The DOE reported that crude oil stocks fell by a sharp 9.854 million barrels in the last week to 346.018 million barrels. Dow Jones was looking for a drop of -2.7 million barrels, and we were only expecting a drop of -2 million to -3 million barrels.

Gasoline supplies did manage to grow by 809,000 barrels to over 214.7 million barrels, but Dow Jones was calling for a gain of 1.9 million barrels. Distillates rose by 1.094 million barrels and Dow Jones was calling for -200,000 barrels as the reading.

Definitely not a demand problem...

Goldman Oil forecast updated for 2011 to $120/barrel.

Ok, and now for a reality check I got the Dec 13th, edition. Btw Goldman are pretty worthless with their oil forecasts, the below excerpt has a good discussion about forecasting oil prices.

With oil demand growth in 2010 accelerating to its highest pace in 30 years, the bulls have once again crashed into the oil market. The surprise rush of demand has catapulted oil prices to a 26-month high of over $90/bbl, and some market watchers are wondering how soon crude with hit $100/bbl, and questioning whether there could be a repeat of the spikes seen in 2008. The demand recovery to pre-financial crisis levels appears to be occurring earlier than expected, thanks to robust economic growth in China, India, Brazil, the Middle East, and other emerging markets. Also, both fuel consumption and economic recovery have been stronger than expected in developed nations, such as the US, the UK, and Germany.

However, analysts point out that today's market is very different from that of 2008. US commercial crude stocks are considerably higher-at 25.4 days of demand as of late Nov.-than levels seen in Dec. 2007, prior to the $140/bbl-plus price spike. Elsewhere in the industrialized world, crude stocks are adequate, and spare capacity exists. The IEA estimates that OPEC alone boasts 6.1MM b/d of unused oil production capacity, which amounts to around 7% of global crude consumption. Spare capacity in late 2007 was just 2.8MM b/d, or 3.2% of global demand.

Credit Suisse researcher Ed Morse commented on the uptick in oil prices, "What is happening reflects a series of one-off, reinforcing factors that, coupled with winter seasonality, have tightened product and crude oil markets far more than might have been expected." Morse forecasts oil prices at an average of $85/bbl in 2011. The "one-off factors" cited by the analyst include (1) a heat wave in Japan and South Korea in 3Q that boosted demand for crude and fuel oil for power generation; (2) a demand spike in China from late Oct. that saw use of diesel-powered generators climb, as the government implemented new energy-savings measures and reduced power to industry; and (3) recent strength in European heating fuel consumption on unseasonably cold weather.

Also regarding US stocks, while the crude stock decreased the total stock increased (middle distillates/crude/gasoline). As noted in the below excerpt, refineries came out of maintenance so they used more crude (queue idiot financial firms predicting supply shortage).

EIA crude and product inventories increased over the week ending Dec. 8 by 2.1MM bbl to 730MM bbl, as higher refinery utilization drew down crude stocks but lifted gasoline supplies. Refinery utilization jumped 4.9 percentage points to 87.5% of total capacity, above analysts' predictions for an increase of 1.1 percentage points, as refineries returned from maintenance. However, the higher throughput resulted in a 3.82MM-bbl decline in crude supplies to 355.9MM bbl, despite a 607K-b/d rise in imports to 9.02MM b/d.

The energy markets worked perfectly fine before the assholes in Goldman and other financial firms found out how to extract more money from mindless funds that blindly give them their portfolios. If you follow financial firms predictions over industry expert predictions you will lose money long-term, although market exuberance might help you in the short term. Unfortunately the market exuberance just screws with our economy while leaving fully stocked tankers floating around.

 

[thegimp03]

Filled up the tank today at $3.31 a gallon. Yippee...

 

[dmcowen674]

Production always slows at this time of the year.

Dude, get you head out of your ass.

Oil inventories have been at 30 year highs.

30 fucking years, get it?

There is oil all over the fucking place in tankers sitting with no where to go with the oil because all the tanks on land have been full for years.

 

[dmcowen674]

As part of our business we get a very in-depth weekly business digest on worldwide refining from Hydro carbon publishing. If you want to know the exact reason for the recent spot price increases in the US I can copy some of it.

"Spot product prices soared across the country in the week of Dec. 3, as markets were supported by cold weather, tight supplies, and refinery maintenance." This is despite the fact that gasoline stocks rose by 561K bbl to 210.2MM bbl, despite refinery utilization dropping 2.9% to 82.6%. This rise in inventory is probably mainly focused in the gulf however, as the NYC area suffered from diverted shipments by Nigeria, and the transatlantic arbitrage suffered due to rising European fuel prices. California also spiked due to two refinery maintenance problems, a FCCU malfunction at Torrance and a CDU being shut down at Anacortes. I won't bother summarizing the rest of the 37 pages which covers Asian and European markets. Also, unfortunately I'm 3rd in line for receiving the publication we rotate around the company so I don't have the latest.

Anyways, those are some of the more relevant facts and I will now depart the thread so dmcowen can keep spouting nonsense.

You just re-broadcast 110% bullshit and I'm the one spouting nonsense?

How rich are you pushing and working in that corrupt Industry?

 

[dmcowen674]

God the Torrance refinery is such a shit hole. Seriously I don't know how Exxon still has that place open.

Worst refinery I ever worked at.

Like I said though we need to stop importing gasoline. We'd see a big drop if we could refine more raw product vs importing refined product.

There we go, the moles coming out of the rat holes and in the open for all to see.

 

[CLite]

You just re-broadcast 110% bullshit and I'm the one spouting nonsense?

How rich are you pushing and working in that corrupt Industry?

You are a simpleton dmcowen. While I pass on industry facts you base your predictions on fear mongering from giant financial firms that are parasites on our country (Goldman for example).

This is all driven by the massive gambling that is occurring in the market ever since the financial giants figured out how to make money with the exemptions the CTFC gave out in the early 90's. They are the dredges of society and profiteered from the financial meltdowns and now they might profiteer off another oil bubble, and you are hungrily lapping up their predictions, it's downright pathetic.

Maybe if another collapse from $140 to $40 happens and more wealth is channeled to financial firms this country will wake up and realize not all regulation is bad. Although I have my doubts as partisan politics completely distract us from the more important issues of the day.

*edit* regarding how rich I am, I am not as rich as people like you acting as shills for Goldman et al.

 

[irwincur]

Higher oil prices usually mean that there is expected to be higher demand. The primary driver for this is improved economic conditions worldwide. So, higher prices may not necessarily be the worst news ever for the economy in general.

I still don't personally like them though.

 

[bfdd]

Dude, get you head out of your ass.

Oil inventories have been at 30 year highs.

30 fucking years, get it?

There is oil all over the fucking place in tankers sitting with no where to go with the oil because all the tanks on land have been full for years.

Because you have never ever ever fucking done anything in the energy industry, just shut the fuck up. PRODUCTION goes down, that includes REFINING which I'm more specifically talking about. REFINING goes down during this time of the year and CLite explained why. These places do huge overhauls on units, occasionally bringing an entire unit down, at least once a year. This cuts down production of refined products which causes fuel prices to go up.

 

[bamacre]

LOL. I would just ignore Dave. He's been the village idiot here for years.