waggy
No Lifer
- Dec 14, 2000
- 68,143
- 10
- 81
no actually it is on you. Anyone that gets on and claims to need to sign a fucking waiver to buy vinegar or whatever the bullshit thing was can't be trusted.
no actually it is on you. Anyone that gets on and claims to need to sign a fucking waiver to buy vinegar or whatever the bullshit thing was can't be trusted.
Engineer
Elite Member
- Oct 9, 1999
- 39,230
- 701
- 126
I see. But don't people do this all the time? Ok, so it's not the same as people buying stock in Intel thinking it'll go up in price. But people buy other things like cotton, rice, copper, silver. I suppose those don't effect people as much as oil, but fundamentally, isn't it the same? I mean, can we call them speculators when they buy stuff we really need, but just investors when they buy things we only kinda need? And why oil? It's not like that's the only thing we really need. Are they organized, did they all get together and pull it out of a hat of all other commodities?
I don't have an answer. Why Gold? Do people really need gold that much?
Like I said, oil production in the US is up while usage is down 8% from the high in 2006. Not to mention that I'm seeing $3.15 gas which is up significantly from the usually higher usage period of last summer.
It's my opinion that this will kick the US economy in the nuts while it's trying to get back off the ground.
In all honesty the only reason oil would be even close to 100 a barrel right now is due to speculators. I haven't heard anything about anyone slowing production like a few years ago when prices started to get outrageous.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,543
- 46,114
- 136
Even the most productive plantings for biodiesel would fall FAR short of our needs even if we consumed all of our arable land to grow it. The future is most likely in algae and cellulosic based fuels, the main impediment is the production process but a lot of companies are working on it.
I'm not talking total needs, just enough to get us off the ME teat of oil. I'm fine with Algae and cellulosic based also, don't really care which honestly. Massive subsidies for electric cars that need the earth raped for lithium isn't any better than pumping it out of the ground. I'd rather we pump money into something sustainable here, in the US/NA, then someplace else.
bamacre
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2004
- 21,029
- 2
- 81
I wasn't asking because I thought you had all the answers, just trying to stimulate some real thought here.
When oil is up in price in this manner, it's easy for us to say "damn you, speculators," but really, there's got to be more to it than that. Thanks to our monetary system, anyone who wishes to save for tomorrow must become some kind of speculator, speculating that whatever we put our savings into will increase faster than the rate of inflation. Some of that speculation goes into things like oil. Why? Because people need it, there's not a good substitute for it, and if the economies get better, people will use more of it. We all insist that the price is too high given the high supplies, so their buying oil is not very rational. I agree. And this irrational behavior, according to Austrian economics, is a result of the monetary inflation. The central banks are handing out cheap booze, and we shouldn't be surprised when the investors act like drunks. Do you think it's safe to say that only the oil buyers are drunk? I would not think so. Perhaps they are the ones who just have a low tolerance. I think it would be wise to consider that maybe those buying stocks and a few other things have at least a decent buzz. When it comes time for everyone to sober up, I'd make sure I was away. They're bound to be pretty grumpy when they awake and begin remembering their crazy nights of wild speculating.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,543
- 46,114
- 136
The vast majority of our oil doesn't come from the ME. Mostly domestic, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Africa, etc...
To free our economy from dependence of the political and economic problems of petroleum we need to eliminate our importation and reduce our overall need for it substantially. Growing fuel feedstock on our production land isn't a good idea since it would increase food costs.
Personal electric and hybrid vehicles are probably going to be part of our future for some time to come. The Leaf and Volt will hopefully present a compelling proof of concept and take root. There are other battery technologies other than lithium that can be leveraged that will help avoid the environmental issues with lithium mining.
Finally some people are asking the right questions
Why?
The reason is simple, its a GLOBAL traded commodity which is the foundation of our economy. Nothing moves without it, people don't get to work, we cannot eat, have medicines, live the lifestyle we have without it. There are NO cheap scalable substitutes, we have spent the last 150 yrs building a totally oil dependant infastructure. You can blame a multitude of reasons and they all have valididty and they all add incrimentally to the price of oil.
How to get out of this?
No easy answers here but just as there are reasons for it they are solutions to it, but none is a game changer, and order of magnitude better. They said the stone age didn't end because of lack of stones and the oil age won't end due to the lack of oil.
Pure crap, the stone age ended because they had better solutions here in the case of oil we have nothing better for transportation, NOTHING and we are getting to the tipping point of production/demand.
Basically until something better comes along we are going to increasingly have to learn to live with less
Why?
The reason is simple, its a GLOBAL traded commodity which is the foundation of our economy. Nothing moves without it, people don't get to work, we cannot eat, have medicines, live the lifestyle we have without it. There are NO cheap scalable substitutes, we have spent the last 150 yrs building a totally oil dependant infastructure. You can blame a multitude of reasons and they all have valididty and they all add incrimentally to the price of oil.
How to get out of this?
No easy answers here but just as there are reasons for it they are solutions to it, but none is a game changer, and order of magnitude better. They said the stone age didn't end because of lack of stones and the oil age won't end due to the lack of oil.
Pure crap, the stone age ended because they had better solutions here in the case of oil we have nothing better for transportation, NOTHING and we are getting to the tipping point of production/demand.
Basically until something better comes along we are going to increasingly have to learn to live with less
Admittedly, I certainly do have strange shit happen.
My wife was with me when this happened.
Londo_Jowo
Lifer
I wasn't asking because I thought you had all the answers, just trying to stimulate some real thought here.
When oil is up in price in this manner, it's easy for us to say "damn you, speculators," but really, there's got to be more to it than that. Thanks to our monetary system, anyone who wishes to save for tomorrow must become some kind of speculator, speculating that whatever we put our savings into will increase faster than the rate of inflation. Some of that speculation goes into things like oil. Why? Because people need it, there's not a good substitute for it, and if the economies get better, people will use more of it. We all insist that the price is too high given the high supplies, so their buying oil is not very rational. I agree. And this irrational behavior, according to Austrian economics, is a result of the monetary inflation. The central banks are handing out cheap booze, and we shouldn't be surprised when the investors act like drunks. Do you think it's safe to say that only the oil buyers are drunk? I would not think so. Perhaps they are the ones who just have a low tolerance. I think it would be wise to consider that maybe those buying stocks and a few other things have at least a decent buzz. When it comes time for everyone to sober up, I'd make sure I was away. They're bound to be pretty grumpy when they awake and begin remembering their crazy nights of wild speculating.
Right now there are a lot of very wealthy people, world-wide. There's not that much a wealthy person can do with their money, if they're determined to keep it, so there's demand for places to invest.
Gold is seen as a safe investment. Oil is seen as a way to get even richer. It's that perception that drives speculation, at least as much as any facts on the ground.
"Austrian economics, "monetary inflation", "gold standard" ,or any other economic buzzwords or ideas have nothing to do with it. That stuff is all just lunacy.
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bamacre
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2004
- 21,029
- 2
- 81
Most wealthy people became so due to their determination to retain it.
The world doesn't have one pair of eyes, everyone must see using their own. Yes, some people see gold as a safe haven, but I am also sure that some who have purchased gold have done so with eyes that see differently, i.e., some of those gold buyers are seeking profits, not safety.
But what drives that perception? Some blame low interest rates, some blame the animal spirits.
I disagree. It is not lunacy, but an explanation for it.
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Most wealthy people became so due to their determination to retain it.
The world doesn't have one pair of eyes, everyone must see using their own. Yes, some people see gold as a safe haven, but I am also sure that some who have purchased gold have done so with eyes that see differently, i.e., some of those gold buyers are seeking profits, not safety.
But what drives that perception? Some blame low interest rates, some blame the animal spirits.
I disagree. It is not lunacy, but an explanation for it.
What drives the perception ? I already said, it's necessity. People with more money than they know what to do with look for things to do with it.
I have not seen any skyrocketing gas prices. Prices are high by they have been high for over a year. If you dont like it quit buying junk from China!
Londo_Jowo
Lifer
Oh noes another day of oil prices dropping.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110107-709765.html
dmcowen, btw you need to stfu with the "OMG TANKERS ARE SITTING IN HARBORS!" you do realize that this time of the year is when a lot of production is taken offline to do overhauls on machinery and systems right? Man turn-arounds were fun. I loved making like 2500 a week rofl.
Londo_Jowo
Lifer
Several refineries in the Houston area has begun their turnarounds and several more will start next week. The shop where I work is getting busy and probably won't slow down until March.
Speculation is by definition risky. If they intended on just holding on to their money they would buy bonds or stick the money in the bank or under their matress. Houses do burn down but a rich fucker can afford a really nice fireproof safe. As far as banks failing, spread it among the current biggest 3 banks in the US and you have the full backing of the US government.
Question, if you had put $10,000 under your mattress 50 years ago and took it out today would you be able to buy more or less "stuff" with that $10K today?
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