GOP will take the Senate in 2014. But Does it matter w/o fillabuster proof majority?

[MrCassdin]

#1, Obamacare will NOT be repealed.
#2, The national minimum wage will NOT get a raise.

And in 2016 Hillary will get elected

I agree that Obamacare will not be repealed, it may be modified. As for the min wage - I don't think the Fed will raise it, but who knows.

I don't think Hillary has a snow ball's chance in hell of being elected. It's not 2008. There isn't a Hopey Changy attitude generally anymore. The left isn't happy with Obama, and of course the right isn't either. Hillary is more of the same.

In all honestly my opinion is that Jeb Bush is the next president. I didn't say that this was a good thing, I just think it's inevitable. Jeb is a centrist at least, but I hate the idea of the Bush family being in power for so long.

 

[ivwshane]

I agree that Obamacare will not be repealed, it may be modified. As for the min wage - I don't think the Fed will raise it, but who knows.

I don't think Hillary has a snow ball's chance in hell of being elected. It's not 2008. There isn't a Hopey Changy attitude generally anymore. The left isn't happy with Obama, and of course the right isn't either. Hillary is more of the same.

In all honestly my opinion is that Jeb Bush is the next president. I didn't say that this was a good thing, I just think it's inevitable. Jeb is a centrist at least, but I hate the idea of the Bush family being in power for so long.

Really? You think a republican will win the presidency over a woman democrat? I guess you haven't been paying attention to voting trends.

There will never be another bush in the white house, ever!

Plus the republican base won't allow a pro immigration candidate get past the primary, not happening.

 

[MrCassdin]

Really? You think a republican will win the presidency over a woman democrat? I guess you haven't been paying attention to voting trends.

There will never be another bush in the white house, ever!

Plus the republican base won't allow a pro immigration candidate get past the primary, not happening.

The last election wasn't a land slide. I think you over-estimate the voting public's desire for 1.) A democrat and 2.) a woman.

Jeb is a pro-immigration candidate if you haven't noticed, I think he will sail through the primary - Paul is his only realistic competition. This isn't an endorsement for Jeb, I just think it's inevitable whether you like the guy or not.

 

[theeedude]

Hillary was inevitable in 2008. When people say "inevitable" about a candidate 2 years out, it's just silly.
The only thing that's inevitable is in order to nominated by the base, the Republican candidate will have to take positions that will make him much less inevitable in the general election.

 

[MrCassdin]

Hillary was inevitable in 2008. When people say "inevitable" about a candidate 2 years out, it's just silly.
The only thing that's inevitable is in order to nominated by the base, the Republican candidate will have to take positions that will make him much less inevitable in the general election.

I don't think it's that cut and dry. I think if Romney wouldn't have opened his big mouth about the "47%" he would be president right now, he was leading polls to that point.

Fewer and fewer people are voting party lines. One poll I read about a month ago suggest that the "left" and "right" only make up 20% of voters now. about 10% per side - everyone else is a centrist essentially and can be swayed. These people voted for Clinton, twice, voted for Bush 2, twice and voted for Obama, twice. You have get the centrists voters. Of course the left and right 20% are going party lines all the way, no news there.

 

[JEDI]

Really? You think a republican will win the presidency over a woman democrat? I guess you haven't been paying attention to voting trends.

There will never be another bush in the white house, ever!

Plus the republican base won't allow a pro immigration candidate get past the primary, not happening.

last time in the Dem primary, they chose a black man over Hilary.
i still don't think the American voter is ready for a female prez yet.

if it's between Hilary and a man (say Biden), the voters will pick male.

 

[ivwshane]

The last election wasn't a land slide. I think you over-estimate the voting public's desire for 1.) A democrat and 2.) a woman.

Jeb is a pro-immigration candidate if you haven't noticed, I think he will sail through the primary - Paul is his only realistic competition. This isn't an endorsement for Jeb, I just think it's inevitable whether you like the guy or not.

If immigration was a good thing we would have already had some reform, we don't because the republican base doesn't want it. Who votes in republican primaries? The anti immigration base of the party.

And rand paul has no chance in hell either.

Oh and Obamas victory was pretty solid by most accounts, landslide? Maybe not but pretty close.

 

[ivwshane]

last time in the Dem primary, they chose a black man over Hilary.
i still don't think the American voter is ready for a female prez yet.

if it's between Hilary and a man (say Biden), the voters will pick male.

You mean white males aren't ready for a female president, the rest of the country is and it's pretty evident when you look at how many female democrats have been elected over the last four years.

 

[ivwshane]

Hillary was inevitable in 2008. When people say "inevitable" about a candidate 2 years out, it's just silly.
The only thing that's inevitable is in order to nominated by the base, the Republican candidate will have to take positions that will make him much less inevitable in the general election.

True.

 

[cubby1223]

You mean white males aren't ready for a female president, the rest of the country is and it's pretty evident when you look at how many female democrats have been elected over the last four years.

Do you ever think before you post?

In 2008, it was Democrats who chose not to vote for Hillary. In your opinion, is the Democratic Party the party of white males? Or the party of everyone else, who chose against Hillary?

In the same 2008, Republicans placed a woman on the ticket for vice president, whom many at the time argued had a high chance to become President given McCain's age and health.

Maybe you should look over the demographics some more. You often tend to believe what you chose to believe they are, rather than believe what the statistics say the demographics are. And, white males make up about 35% of the U.S. population. Last time I checked it takes 51% to win an election. Who are the other 65% voting for?


It's like, you just had a spasm at the opportunity to say something negative about white males, and you wouldn't dare pass up that opportunity!

 

[Thebobo]

Eliminate lobbyists. Otherwise, we get same old crappy government, funded by corps. While I'll admit that the GOP will probably take the senate and retain the house, what matters most is what WE THE PEOPLE get. I'm not very optimistic, to be frank.

Thats something everyone can agree on shame its not a platform they run on.

 

[theeedude]

I don't think it's that cut and dry. I think if Romney wouldn't have opened his big mouth about the "47%" he would be president right now, he was leading polls to that point.

Fewer and fewer people are voting party lines. One poll I read about a month ago suggest that the "left" and "right" only make up 20% of voters now. about 10% per side - everyone else is a centrist essentially and can be swayed. These people voted for Clinton, twice, voted for Bush 2, twice and voted for Obama, twice. You have get the centrists voters. Of course the left and right 20% are going party lines all the way, no news there.

The 47% thing is just an excuse. A way for GOP to avoid looking at the mirror and seeing what it actually stands for, and how out of touch with the American people it is. They think if they just don't say it out loud, people won't know what they stand for.

 

[Fern]

Obama has veto anyways. This election is about the shade of gridlock we are going to get.

Props for the most accurate and succinct post of the day. :thumbsup:

Fern

 

[Fern]

What laws you think the newly-majority GOP senate would pass when the new session begins?

My $0.02 goes to abortion. :biggrin:

SCOTUS ruled on abortion. Congress cannot overturn SCOTUS. (But I think you know that.)

Fern

 

[Fern]

I think it would be ironic if there was a Senate and House Republican majority and Obama vetoed everything, leading the voters to finally head the Democratic complaints of partisan gridlock and vote a Repub in as President to stop it.

Fern

 

[fskimospy]

The filibuster doesn't matter with Obama as the president. What it would change is judicial appointments, etc.

It's really just a question of whether or not Obama has the ability to appoint people as he wants for the next two years. Even if Republicans take the Senate in 2014 it will be back under Democratic control in 2016 unless something really unlikely happens.

 

[ivwshane]

I know history isn't your thing so I'll remind you...

Do you ever think before you post?

In 2008, it was Democrats who chose not to vote for Hillary. In your opinion, is the Democratic Party the party of white males? Or the party of everyone else, who chose against Hillary?

2008 election was, during the primaries, about the bush years and the disastrous Iraq war. Hilary lost because she voted for the war, Obama did not.

In the same 2008, Republicans placed a woman on the ticket for vice president, whom many at the time argued had a high chance to become President given McCain's age and health.

lol! No one but the right wing echo chamber thought putting palin on the ticket was a good idea and part of the reason McCain lost was because of that idiot, not because she was a woman.

Maybe you should look over the demographics some more. You often tend to believe what you chose to believe they are, rather than believe what the statistics say the demographics are. And, white males make up about 35% of the U.S. population. Last time I checked it takes 51% to win an election. Who are the other 65% voting for?

Again, voting trends and demographics point to everyone except white males and married women moving in the direction of democrats and past and current elections have had more democrat women elected than ever before. Oh and last I checked the minority population was growing.

It's like, you just had a spasm at the opportunity to say something negative about white males, and you wouldn't dare pass up that opportunity!

Negative? Or a fact? Denial is certainly a trait of the CBD

 

[ivwshane]

The filibuster doesn't matter with Obama as the president. What it would change is judicial appointments, etc.

It's really just a question of whether or not Obama has the ability to appoint people as he wants for the next two years. Even if Republicans take the Senate in 2014 it will be back under Democratic control in 2016 unless something really unlikely happens.

And really that is the issue and it certainly has major ramifications if Obama can't appoint who he wants.

We already see the consequences of letting repubs run anything other than congress and the White House, their policies are forced on the people with only the supreme courts being able to stop them, win the court and they win, regardless of who is in congress or the White House.

 

[DominionSeraph]

Do you ever think before you post?

In 2008, it was Democrats who chose not to vote for Hillary. In your opinion, is the Democratic Party the party of white males? Or the party of everyone else, who chose against Hillary?

In the same 2008, Republicans placed a woman on the ticket for vice president, whom many at the time argued had a high chance to become President given McCain's age and health.

Obama won because he was the better candidate.
Palin's gender doesn't immunize her from being an idiot. Republicans being ok with an idiot in the White House is a problem.

 

[lopri]

SCOTUS ruled on abortion. Congress cannot overturn SCOTUS. (But I think you know that.)

Fern

Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003

If abortion was so secure you would think GOP would stop incessantly enacting laws restricting it. I would say the conservatives on the SCOTUS are itching to rule on abortion and waiting for a chance.

I think it would be ironic if there was a Senate and House Republican majority and Obama vetoed everything, leading the voters to finally head the Democratic complaints of partisan gridlock and vote a Repub in as President to stop it.

Fern

Sometimes, that is exactly what happens although for slightly different reasons. DOMA was such a case - Clinton administration thought vetoing it would propel a movement to fossilize heterosexual marriage into the U.S. Constitution. And it turned out that was not an unfounded fear considering how many states passed mini-DOMA's via Constitutional amendments or statutes afterwards.

It is not a stretch of imagination GOP Senate/House will pass some sort of abortion restriction, such as fetal heartbeat blahblah, fetal pain blahblah, personhood blablah. (Though Obama's veto will be pretty much a given)

Edit: The act was signed on 2003, not 2007.

 

[ivwshane]

Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2007

If abortion was so secure you would think GOP would stop incessantly enacting laws restricting it. I would say the conservatives on the SCOTUS are itching to rule on abortion and waiting for a chance.



Sometimes, that is exactly what happens although for slightly different reasons. DOMA was such a case - Clinton administration thought vetoing it would propel a movement to fossilize heterosexual marriage into the U.S. Constitution. And it turned out that was not an unfounded fear considering how many states passed mini-DOMA's via Constitutional amendments or statutes afterwards.

It is not a stretch of imagination GOP Senate/House will pass some sort of abortion restriction, such as fetal heartbeat blahblah, fetal pain blahblah, personhood blablah. (Though Obama's veto will be pretty much a given)

More than likely, the right will rid the legality of abortions indirectly by passing personhood laws. They will do it under the guise that harming a pregnant women is equal to harming the woman and a baby (in this case the baby isn't born yet but is recognized as living).

 

[Fayd]

even the dems admit they will lose big in the 2014 senate races.

widely held prediction- gop:51 Dems:49 after the election

but does it matter?
the dems will fillabuster any batshit crazy gop bill (senate and House) that comes their way.

it'll be more of the same.. gridlock.

discuss

well, it'll be more effective gridlock than it is currently.

and gridlock isn't necessarily a bad thing. I wish people would realize this.

 

[werepossum]

well, it'll be more effective gridlock than it is currently.

and gridlock isn't necessarily a bad thing. I wish people would realize this.

Agreed. Obama would lose his ability to appoint anyone he wishes, which would be a good thing. And as mentioned, Democrats would have to go on record opposing a LOT of GOP bills, which might also be a good thing. On the GOP side, they would have to pass bills which look reasonable to the American public, which is far from easy for them. Beyond that, gridlock is good; the last thing I want is either party having the House and a veto-proof Senate majority, much less with the White House.

As far as 2016, if the Pubbies nominate another pro-immigration reform candidate then the next President will be a Democrat unless their candidate completely self destructs, and once these new Hispanic citizens begin voting all further Presidents will be Democrats until the GOP becomes a Democrat clone party or simply implodes and is replaced by La Raza. Without immigration there simply aren't enough issues on which Republicans are right to put together a winning coalition as people like me will simply vote third party in ever larger numbers.

 

[fskimospy]

Agreed. Obama would lose his ability to appoint anyone he wishes, which would be a good thing. And as mentioned, Democrats would have to go on record opposing a LOT of GOP bills, which might also be a good thing. On the GOP side, they would have to pass bills which look reasonable to the American public, which is far from easy for them. Beyond that, gridlock is good; the last thing I want is either party having the House and a veto-proof Senate majority, much less with the White House.

The GOP will not have to pass bills that look reasonable to the American public, nor will they do that. They have no incentive to do so. If the GOP takes the Senate they will continue doing what they have been doing up until this point, only with two chambers instead of one.

You heard it here first.

As far as 2016, if the Pubbies nominate another pro-immigration reform candidate then the next President will be a Democrat unless their candidate completely self destructs, and once these new Hispanic citizens begin voting all further Presidents will be Democrats until the GOP becomes a Democrat clone party or simply implodes and is replaced by La Raza. Without immigration there simply aren't enough issues on which Republicans are right to put together a winning coalition as people like me will simply vote third party in ever larger numbers.

They definitely will nominate another pro-immigration reform candidate. The issue is too popular with the American public as a whole. If you look at polling on the issue, the broad outline of the immigration reform package passed by the Senate is extremely popular. It's opposition really only lives in the ultra-right, which explains why the House didn't pass it.

 

[thraashman]

Really? You think a republican will win the presidency over a woman democrat? I guess you haven't been paying attention to voting trends.

There will never be another bush in the white house, ever!

Plus the republican base won't allow a pro immigration candidate get past the primary, not happening.

I think Hillary is very polarizing and comes with a lot of baggage. I'm not confident in her chances. If democrats want a woman with a high probability and none of the baggage, they should push Kirsten Gillibrand to run. I'd say Elizabeth Warren would be a good option too, but I don't think she has any interest in running.