Goodbye NX, hello Switch

[Chiropteran]

also:

Nintendo Switch Will Make You Attractive to Women and More Popular

 

[zerocool84]

also:

Nintendo Switch Will Make You Attractive to Women and More Popular

*sigh*

Ok that's evident that you are going to love it no matter what. No matter what's wrong with it.

 

[Chiropteran]

It's obvious satire. I posted the link because i thought it was funny.

 

[poofyhairguy]

It was approximately as powerful as the PS3 which released 6 years earlier. Of course hardcore gamers were going to reject it. If that was actually Nintendo's best at courting hardcore gamers, that's truly, truly pathetic.

I won't debate that is wasn't a great attempt, I never was interested in the Wii U. But Reggie really did think that the Wii U would appeal to hardcore gamers because according to his statements around the launch of that console just having games in "HD on the big screen" would be enough:

We showed that [with the announcement that Activision's Call of Duty: Black Ops II will be released for the Wii U]. You're going to have the beautiful graphics. You're going to have the online multiplayer, and now you're going to have a same-room two player experience that you can't get anywhere else, because I'll be playing on the game pad, you'll be playing on the big screen T.V. That's a huge innovation... there are a series of innovations that we're bringing for the more active gamer.

Source

If anything that just supports my point that a modern Nintendo CAN'T appeal to the hardcore gamer, they don't know how to. That is why I don't think they should have made a PS4 clone, because frankly they would have screwed that up to the point where it was unappealing. At least the Switch is an appealing as a handheld console (if also a little expensive for that category).

As far as market demographics, nobody caters to casuals because it has been proven they don't spend money on games like those who are buying the shooters and action games. Most of the market that purchased the wii played the pack in game and maybe bought one or two more. Meanwhile the so called hardcore market is buying two or more every couple of months. There is simply more money to be made in that demographic. They go where the money is.

On this point I completely disagree with you- there is PLENTY of money spent on casual games on mobile devices. Just no "real" gaming company outside of Nintendo is chasing those gamers. Take a look:

In 2016 mobile gaming was a $36.9 billion business. By 2018 it is projected to add another $10 billion to that total, which will make it a larger share of the gaming market than either consoles OR PCs! Almost all of the growth of the gaming market the next couple of years is expected to happen on the casual side of the fence.

That is the market Nintendo is shooting for, as it (rightly IMHO) thinks it can appeal to gamers in that part of the market before it can win back hardcore gamers.

We will see if they are successful, but just based on the market growth for mobile I don't think it is a mistake for them to chase that market. It just sucks for hardcore gamers that want their old buddy Nintendo to actually compete for their dollars again.

I think we all need to admit the SNES/NES era of Nintendo having the best first and third party software is gone never to return. If the Switch flops they would be an iOS developer before they would go to the Playstation platform, if the Switch is successful they will go all-in on their own mobile product. There is no scenario where Nintendo ever really competes for hardcore gaming dollars. That is the reality of the situation.

 

[cmdrdredd]

I won't debate that is wasn't a great attempt, I never was interested in the Wii U. But Reggie really did think that the Wii U would appeal to hardcore gamers because according to his statements around the launch of that console just having games in "HD on the big screen" would be enough:



Source

If anything that just supports my point that a modern Nintendo CAN'T appeal to the hardcore gamer, they don't know how to. That is why I don't think they should have made a PS4 clone, because frankly they would have screwed that up to the point where it was unappealing. At least the Switch is an appealing as a handheld console (if also a little expensive for that category).



On this point I completely disagree with you- there is PLENTY of money spent on casual games on mobile devices. Just no "real" gaming company outside of Nintendo is chasing those gamers. Take a look:

In 2016 mobile gaming was a $36.9 billion business. By 2018 it is projected to add another $10 billion to that total, which will make it a larger share of the gaming market than either consoles OR PCs! Almost all of the growth of the gaming market the next couple of years is expected to happen on the casual side of the fence.

That is the market Nintendo is shooting for, as it (rightly IMHO) thinks it can appeal to gamers in that part of the market before it can win back hardcore gamers.

We will see if they are successful, but just based on the market growth for mobile I don't think it is a mistake for them to chase that market. It just sucks for hardcore gamers that want their old buddy Nintendo to actually compete for their dollars again.

I think we all need to admit the SNES/NES era of Nintendo having the best first and third party software is gone never to return. If the Switch flops they would be an iOS developer before they would go to the Playstation platform, if the Switch is successful they will go all-in on their own mobile product. There is no scenario where Nintendo ever really competes for hardcore gaming dollars. That is the reality of the situation.

1) Most mobile games are cheap (under $5) or free with in-app purchases. Nobody is buying $20+ games on mobile. If you tried to release a $50 game on iPhone it would not sell. Look at all the complaints that Mario Run is $9.99 instead of $2.99
2) Console and PC games launch at $60 and as your chart shows, PC/MMO and Console games dominate the market even still.

So going on the above 2, the market isn't even remotely the same at all. I don't believe that you will get people who play candy crush to suddenly start buying $50 games on a switch. People buying PS4 games probably aren't playing the latest free to play mobile game.

 

[poofyhairguy]

1) Most mobile games are cheap (under $5) or free with in-app purchases. Nobody is buying $20+ games on mobile. If you tried to release a $50 game on iPhone it would not sell. Look at all the complaints that Mario Run is $9.99 instead of $2.99
2) Console and PC games launch at $60 and as your chart shows, PC/MMO and Console games dominate the market even still.

So going on the above 2, the market isn't even remotely the same at all. I don't believe that you will get people who play candy crush to suddenly start buying $50 games on a switch.

You aren't wrong, that is a tough challenge. I never said it wasn't.

I would point out that Mario Run's conversion rate for paying users was much higher than most freemium apps though. Mario Run is only a failure if compared to freemium money printers like Candy Crush. When compared to any console game with its production budget (which we don't know) it would probably be considered a success. Nintendo obviously expected a better conversion rate than it had, but they are learning and that is why Fire Emblem Heroes doesn't cost $10+.

Also you can look and see that the Pokemon Go phenomenon on mobile helped boost sales of those games on the 3DS. Obviously a certain percentage of mobile gamers WILL convert to higher cost but higher quality games once they are hooked on that IP. The trick is Nintendo providing the necessary IP to create enough conversions to make the Switch worth selling. To get from 99 cents to $60 will take leaning on every bit of nostalgia Nintendo can muster, but mustering nostalgia is one of the few things a modern Nintendo is actually good at (NES Classic for example).

Personally I think getting people playing Fire Emblem Heroes on Android to convert to a real Fire Emblem on the Switch is easier than what it would take to get hardcore gamers to buy Nintendo's next console. But that doesn't mean that conversion process is easy, it just means that for Nintendo getting back into the good graces of hardcore gamers is pretty much impossible given their modern proficiencies.

All Nintendo needs is a slice of that mobile market to convert for the Switch to be a success. And frankly if they fail the Switch at the end of the day is just a tablet- they can open the floodgates of freemium ports and basically turn it into "baby's first iPad" if Plan A doesn't work out.

 

[cmdrdredd]

They would have done much better with Mario run if it was actually a Mario game in more than just name.

Time will tell but I don't think the crowd playing iPhone and android games will be interested in another $300 device myself.

 

[ponyo]

Where can I buy the Switch?

 

[poofyhairguy]

They would have done much better with Mario run if it was actually a Mario game in more than just name.

Amen. That was a waste for $10 for me. But I am enjoying Fire Emblem Heroes and so are a lot of mobile users if the ratings mean anything.

Time will tell but I don't think the crowd playing iPhone and android games will be interested in another $300 device myself.

The trick is Nintendo only has to convince a small fraction of that massive mobile audience to convert to their software/devices and it makes a huge difference for them. Pokemon Go was a worldwide phenomenon that probably can't be matched, but it made a huge difference to 3DS sales and sales of older pokemon titles:

http://www.siliconera.com/2016/10/27/pokmon-go-helped-3ds-hardware-pokmon-series-sales/

It also helped make Pokemon Sun and Moon the fastest selling Nintendo games in the Americas ever:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkai...just-broke-a-major-sales-record/#55450c517848

Nintendo says they plan to make 1-3 mobile games a year. If they can have those have a fraction of the success of Go then all together their mobile games could really influence Switch sales. I for one am very interested how to see how Fire Emblem Heroes influences Fire Emblem Warriors sales and Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia sales.

Where can I buy the Switch?

Pre-orders are sold out, but every week or so another shipment seems to hit somewhere online. Nowinstock is the place to keep track:

https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/nintendoswitch/

 

[poofyhairguy]

So a very interesting article on the Switch hit time.com yesterday:

http://time.com/4661055/nintendo-switch-interview/

It has some revelations that I think can reveal some of Nintendo's plan.

The biggest revelation for me, is it seems obvious that Nintendo plans to iterate the hardware sooner than later, but only to change the form factor (to make it more portable/cheaper) and not to make it more powerful (bolding added by me):

"It is Nintendo Switch, so maybe we'll switch it up!" jokes Takahashi, responding to a question about whether Switch's life cycle will resemble more the company's TV consoles (completely new ideas at five-year-plus intervals) or its handhelds (subtler changes every few years). "Certainly, we've designed Nintendo Switch in a way that it can be used by consumers in the way that best suits them. I think we may see that people who have bought a Nintendo home console in the past traditionally, they may treat Switch like a home console and buy it and use it for a long period of time."

"Whereas people who have been traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers, they may buy Nintendo Switch and then for example, if a new version were to come out later, then maybe they would decide to upgrade to that.

Reading between the lines it seem obvious Nintendo IS planning a true successor the the 3DS that probably is a cheaper and more portable (but not more powerful) Switch Lite or whatever. In fact Koizumi doesn't even screw around, he blatantly says the Switch is meant to be Nintendo's everything console (bolding again me):

Koizumi envisions scenarios in which, say, you wake up in the morning and maybe find some time to play a game on your TV while eating breakfast. Then you bring Switch with you on your morning commute to work or to school. "And then you're coming back home on your commute and maybe you're sitting in the bath enjoying a game," he says. He believes that if Switch can achieve this, then it might hasten the demise of the split between a "home console" versus a "handheld."

Bye bye dedicated Nintendo portables, or even a powerful dedicated Nintendo console. On the issue of power, Nintendo doesn't even apologize for the fact it isn't keeping up:

"...as we mentioned before, at Nintendo we feel like we're an entertainment company rather than necessarily a games or a graphics company. Our priority is always on trying to create new and fun forms of entertainment. That's the top priority."

"Certainly, graphic quality falls somewhere within our priority, but our feeling is that Nintendo Switch is a system that really has the best balance of being able to create fun and new ways to play, but doing so with the graphic quality that's still good enough while also being one that's easy to develop for."

"Graphics and frame rate are important in terms of how you're connecting with or how you're moving the heart of the player who's immersed in that world," adds Koizumi. "Nintendo Switch also has something else that can connect with that player in the form of the HD Rumble, where you can be immersed in that world, but you can actually feel in your hands the sensation of something in that world that you haven't been able to feel before that adds a new layer of immersion to go along with the graphics and the frame rate."

Who needs graphics when you have HD Rumble probably won't fly for most gamers. But what gamers really want is third party games, and this article had some amazing insight there too:

"The two of us have met with a large number of third-party developers directly and done our Nintendo Switch presentation to them face-to-face directly," says Koizumi. "There were many overseas developers who we presented the system too who were very happy to see it."

"We did a number of these presentations last year, and we were actually pretty nervous doing them, because we didn't know how the overseas developers were going to respond to it," adds Takahashi.

Apparently the top brass went an begged for games. EA and Bethesda were willing to give some crown jewels like FIFA and Skyrim, while some were obviously less impressed (like how Ubi is just giving and old Rayman and a crappy snowboarding game).

 

[zerocool84]

The thing people don't understand is that because it's so down on power compared to its competition, is that it's not as easy to port games over. You will have to make a special version just for the the Switch. The bad part is that that the WiiU had better third party support right out of the box compared to the Switch. Everyone buying a console wants to have access to tons of great games for it.

From what everyone is saying, hardware wise it feels great which is awesome but it has to get more third party developers on board and that is still a huge concern we have now even just three weeks from launch.

We still don't know the online aspects, no Virtual Console info, no concrete details on the processor. It's either they are holding out to announce this stuff after the Switch comes out for fear that their plans suck and will get less people to get it day one or it's just plain not ready which is probably the case because I there is a lot about this console that shows they rushed it.

 

[cmdrdredd]

FIFA and skyrim are on every system out there these days. That's not really Crown Jewels when you aren't getting the latest Mass Effect title.

 

[poofyhairguy]

The thing people don't understand is that because it's so down on power compared to its competition, is that it's not as easy to port games over. You will have to make a special version just for the the Switch. The bad part is that that the WiiU had better third party support right out of the box compared to the Switch. Everyone buying a console wants to have access to tons of great games for it.

Another interesting part about that article is they brag how easy it is to develop in Unity for the Switch. Most of the "80+ developers" developing for the Switch are indie developers, Nintendo seems to be going all in trying to court these developers to inflate the number of titles on the console. Hell some Indie games like Binding of Isaac are even getting physical releases to inflate the number of titles (I assume).

I have pretty much given up hope this thing is going to get the same AAA ports that the PC/Xbone/PS4 trifecta get, outside of games that are easier on the hardware like Dragonball Xenoverse 2 and that snowboarding game. What HAS to happen is the Switch gets the third party franchises that the 3DS has like Monster Hunter.

We still don't know the online aspects, no Virtual Console info, no concrete details on the processor. It's either they are holding out to announce this stuff after the Switch comes out for fear that their plans suck and will get less people to get it day one or it's just plain not ready which is probably the case because I there is a lot about this console that shows they rushed it.

I would guess not ready, we knew way more about the Wii U at this point before launch. Recent speculation is that streaming services like Netflix will never come because maybe the Switch doesn't support HDCP (which is how it can pull off its "switch" trick with tvs so quickly). There is going to be a lot of information being put forth by third parties examining the system day one since Nintendo doesn't want to fill in the gaps.

FIFA and skyrim are on every system out there these days. That's not really Crown Jewels when you aren't getting the latest Mass Effect title.

Oh I am not saying FIFA and Skyrim are system sellers on their own, just that these were titles the Wii U wasn't getting (well it got one FIFA but it was early) and to Nintendo executives that was probably a victory. If anything that article proves they are kinda on a different planet than the rest of the hardcore gaming industry, and I don't feel to confident that Skyrim will have the sales it needs to ever see a water down Mass Effect port (or just spinoff).

 

[Blue_Max]

Let me know when your smartphone has analog joysticks. (Let alone the graphics processing required for games more advanced than Candy Crush!)

...Wasn't that actually tried once a few years ago and failed miserably?

 

[Chiropteran]

Another interesting part about that article is they brag how easy it is to develop in Unity for the Switch. Most of the "80+ developers" developing for the Switch are indie developers, Nintendo seems to be going all in trying to court these developers to inflate the number of titles on the console. Hell some Indie games like Binding of Isaac are even getting physical releases to inflate the number of titles (I assume).

Indie titles don't count?

I spend a lot more time playing indie games than any AAA major studio crap. I'd be pretty happy if switch becomes the indie gaming console of choice.

 

[zerocool84]

Indie titles don't count?

I spend a lot more time playing indie games than any AAA major studio crap. I'd be pretty happy if switch becomes the indie gaming console of choice.

They count but not to the same degree as AAA games which everyone wants to play. Indie games don't sell systems.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Indie titles don't count?

It counts as far as my wallet is concerned. So far I have preordered the Binding of Isaac and Has Been Heros and I will probably buy Snipperclips day one and Fast RMX within the first month. Probably I am Setsuna too because I don't own it yet and I like JRPGs.

Meanwhile I don't think I can talk myself into 1 2 Switch (maybe ARMs though).

 

[zerocool84]

It counts as far as my wallet is concerned. So far I have preordered the Binding of Isaac and Has Been Heros and I will probably buy Snipperclips day one and Fast RMX within the first month. Probably I am Setsuna too because I don't own it yet and I like JRPGs.

Meanwhile I don't think I can talk myself into 1 2 Switch (maybe ARMs though).

Like everybody says 1-2 Switch should have been packed in to show what the capabilities of the new controllers are.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Indie titles don't count?

I spend a lot more time playing indie games than any AAA major studio crap. I'd be pretty happy if switch becomes the indie gaming console of choice.

See that's the thing that gets me, most of the indie games they are getting are old games that many people have already played and may have even gotten for under $5 at some point from a sale. Binding of Issac Afterbirth is just a remake of a game that launched in 2011. Shovel Knight came out in 2014, World of Goo 2008 and I got it for free at one point, Cave Story 2004, Little Inferno 2012. That's why I don't think Indie games count at all because as Poofyhairguy mentioned, it seems like they are only there to inflate the title count.

I also think it's kind of a joke that Capcom is releasing Street Fighter 2 on the system trying to sell it yet again. There are like 30 different versions of the title on various platforms at this point(exaggeration). They won't even put SF5 on there which is actually newer.

 

[zerocool84]

See that's the thing that gets me, most of the indie games they are getting are old games that many people have already played and may have even gotten for under $5 at some point from a sale. Binding of Issac Afterbirth is just a remake of a game that launched in 2011. Shovel Knight came out in 2014, World of Goo 2008 and I got it for free at one point, Cave Story 2004, Little Inferno 2012. That's why I don't think Indie games count at all because as Poofyhairguy mentioned, it seems like they are only there to inflate the title count.

I also think it's kind of a joke that Capcom is releasing Street Fighter 2 on the system trying to sell it yet again. There are like 30 different versions of the title on various platforms at this point(exaggeration). They won't even put SF5 on there which is actually newer.

Capcom and Bethesda, two HUGE third party developers, have newer titles readily available on other systems, yet they both chose to have their first Switch games be ports of OLD games.

 

[gus6464]

See that's the thing that gets me, most of the indie games they are getting are old games that many people have already played and may have even gotten for under $5 at some point from a sale. Binding of Issac Afterbirth is just a remake of a game that launched in 2011. Shovel Knight came out in 2014, World of Goo 2008 and I got it for free at one point, Cave Story 2004, Little Inferno 2012. That's why I don't think Indie games count at all because as Poofyhairguy mentioned, it seems like they are only there to inflate the title count.

I also think it's kind of a joke that Capcom is releasing Street Fighter 2 on the system trying to sell it yet again. There are like 30 different versions of the title on various platforms at this point(exaggeration). They won't even put SF5 on there which is actually newer.

Sony pays for part of the Capcom pro tour. SFV will never be on another console in this gen.

 

[purbeast0]

I do find it funny that SF2 on Switch has arcade mode and SF5 still doesn't have one lol. Capcom botched SF5 so hard. That game is a pile of shit outside of the actual engine and when you are in a good match. The problem is trying to get into one online. There are about 100 basic things wrong with SF5 that could be solved in about 2 weeks worth of development time, that they have completely decided not to fix and instead put out $4 costumes and $30 season passes for characters nobody has a clue who they are.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Sony pays for part of the Capcom pro tour. SFV will never be on another console in this gen.

I don't know the agreement but if I remember right the pro tour deal only applies to the official console used for tourney play. Though specifically with SF5 there is probably more than that, but I remember when Microsoft sponsored for SF4 and it was the official console to play on at tourneys.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I also think it's kind of a joke that Capcom is releasing Street Fighter 2 on the system trying to sell it yet again. There are like 30 different versions of the title on various platforms at this point(exaggeration). They won't even put SF5 on there which is actually newer.

I watched some video (I wish I could remember which one but at this point I have watched too many about the Switch) where it was implied that the developers for this game were directly targeting the 30-something "lapsed and nostalgic" gamer category. In fact the ability for the graphics to switch (no pun) between 16 bit pixel style and something more modern was basically explained as "and dads might want to play this with their kids who will reject the old graphics, hence we included both." Honestly the most interesting thing to me (I won't buy this game for full price) is the implication that Nintendo basically told Capcom that the 30 something casual gamer with a kid is basically the Switch's target market.



In other Switch news, we have some rumors and tweets that seems to tell us that at E3 Nintendo plans to show off a new Metroid Prime for the Switch, and that it will probably get an Assassins Creed (no clue which one). Oh and it will probably get a remaster of L.A. Noire which seems weird to me. Western AAA developers obviously aren't concerned with giving the Switch their best franchises, probably because they fear Nintendo fans won't buy those games. I will be part of that problem- I will buy every stupid JRPG the Switch has but so far the only crossplatform AAA title I have pre-ordered is Xenoverse 2 and frankly if its half price on Steam in the summer sale that pre-order is canceled.

 

[zerocool84]

I watched some video (I wish I could remember which one but at this point I have watched too many about the Switch) where it was implied that the developers for this game were directly targeting the 30-something "lapsed and nostalgic" gamer category. In fact the ability for the graphics to switch (no pun) between 16 bit pixel style and something more modern was basically explained as "and dads might want to play this with their kids who will reject the old graphics, hence we included both." Honestly the most interesting thing to me (I won't buy this game for full price) is the implication that Nintendo basically told Capcom that the 30 something casual gamer with a kid is basically the Switch's target market.



In other Switch news, we have some rumors and tweets that seems to tell us that at E3 Nintendo plans to show off a new Metroid Prime for the Switch, and that it will probably get an Assassins Creed (no clue which one). Oh and it will probably get a remaster of L.A. Noire which seems weird to me. Western AAA developers obviously aren't concerned with giving the Switch their best franchises, probably because they fear Nintendo fans won't buy those games. I will be part of that problem- I will buy every stupid JRPG the Switch has but so far the only crossplatform AAA title I have pre-ordered is Xenoverse 2 and frankly if its half price on Steam in the summer sale that pre-order is canceled.

If they really do show off and announce a new Metroid game, that would be awesome.