Given the opportunity, should the democrats expand the Supreme Court?

[K1052]

I expected McConnell to hold it until after the election to motivate the base like 2016, but then pass it in lame duck if Trump or Senate majority lost. Not sure why he is rushing it, especially since it doesn't look like he'll need the McSally vote.

If your highest priority is to fill the seat you vote now when you've got the votes in hand. If your priority is to help Trump get re-elected you fill it later but risk goes up due to uncertainty.

A choice has been made.

If Trump was smart he'd withhold the nom until after the election.

 

[Grey_Beard]

The lying would be amusing if it wasn't so insulting and emprically wrong.

What fucking liberal court is he referring to?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308412828181815296

What nation is “center right?”

 

[HomerJS]

I expected McConnell to hold it until after the election to motivate the base like 2016, but then pass it in lame duck if Trump or Senate majority lost. Not sure why he is rushing it, especially since it doesn't look like he'll need the McSally vote.

It might be a fakeout. I agree the smart move would be to wait to vote after the election to motivate Trump base. However they don't want it too look like they stalled it so if Dems put up a modest fight they will say "Dems blocked us so we need you to vote us back in to get the justice".

 

[eelw]

I expected McConnell to hold it until after the election to motivate the base like 2016, but then pass it in lame duck if Trump or Senate majority lost. Not sure why he is rushing it, especially since it doesn't look like he'll need the McSally vote.

As much as he wants to remain senate leader, the option to add another justice is too much to give up. Screw the orange baby since re-election already a lost cause.

 

[SMOGZINN]

It might be a fakeout. I agree the smart move would be to wait to vote after the election to motivate Trump base. However they don't want it too look like they stalled it so if Dems put up a modest fight they will say "Dems blocked us so we need you to vote us back in to get the justice".

My guess is that what McConnell really wants is a drawn out confirmation hearing, with the right nomination he is hoping he can control the narrative going into the election and try to convince the rubes, err, I mean Republicans, that if they don't show up for the poll they might lose the seat, and at the same time make the Democrats make a strong stand against a Pro-Life nominee and harden the wavering evangelical voting block.

My guess is that the confirmation hearing will be scheduled so that the hearing starts a week or so before the election and the vote does not happen until right after.

 

[K1052]

My guess is that what McConnell really wants is a drawn out confirmation hearing, with the right nomination he is hoping he can control the narrative going into the election and try to convince the rubes, err, I mean Republicans, that if they don't show up for the poll they might lose the seat, and at the same time make the Democrats make a strong stand against a Pro-Life nominee and harden the wavering evangelical voting block.

My guess is that the confirmation hearing will be scheduled so that the hearing starts a week or so before the election and the vote does not happen until right after.

This seems like overthinking it. If the choice is between a majority that looks dicy and a sure thing SCOTUS seat I'd bet Mitch picks the latter every time.

 

[hal2kilo]

I'm so disappointed by romney. I really thought he was an honest man. Shame on me for thinking a rich man could enter the kingdom of God.

You forgot like I did. He's a Republican.

 

[SMOGZINN]

This seems like overthinking it. If the choice is between a majority that looks dicy and a sure thing SCOTUS seat I'd bet Mitch picks the latter every time.

The thing is that there is no reason to do it right away. He has until Jan 20th to get the confirmation pushed through, and is quite capable of doing it at 11:30pm on January 19th if it comes to that. So unless he has some plan why even risk it? Remember he is up for reelection as well, and for the first time in a decade is facing some real competition.

 

[K1052]

The thing is that there is no reason to do it right away. He has until Jan 20th to get the confirmation pushed through, and is quite capable of doing it at 11:30pm on January 19th if it comes to that. So unless he has some plan why even risk it? Remember he is up for reelection as well, and for the first time in a decade is facing some real competition.

Certainty is a reason.

Mitch isn't going to loose his seat.

 

[Maxima1]

I expected McConnell to hold it until after the election to motivate the base like 2016, but then pass it in lame duck if Trump or Senate majority lost. Not sure why he is rushing it, especially since it doesn't look like he'll need the McSally vote.

Because Trump is doing badly in the polls, that low confidence makes the alternative more attractive. Ramming it in now, they are probably risking a few seats while also potentially shoring up some, but from what I'm seeing from the Democrats, they'll probably need a few more Senators than 50. Democrats also probably need to do more than Puerto Rico and DC, too, for long time insurance. In the longer term, Republicans will have an easier time escalating if they remain as corrupted as they are now. Looks good for Mitch then. A couple of Senate seats in exchange for SC seat but no retaliation from the Democrats is a lot better. Ramming it in now also avoids a worse Garland-like future talking point; Biden winning by more than a few points but Republicans still confirming would look bad.

 

[Sunburn74]

Because Trump is doing badly in the polls, that low confidence makes the alternative more attractive. Ramming it in now, they are probably risking a few seats while also potentially shoring up some, but from what I'm seeing from the Democrats, they'll probably need a few more Senators than 50. Democrats also probably need to do more than Puerto Rico and DC, too, for long time insurance. In the longer term, Republicans will have an easier time escalating if they remain as corrupted as they are now. Looks good for Mitch then. A couple of Senate seats in exchange for SC seat but no retaliation from the Democrats is a lot better. Ramming it in now also avoids a worse Garland-like future talking point; Biden winning by more than a few points but Republicans still confirming would look bad.

Northern DC and Southern DC sounds good to me.

 

[Grey_Beard]

I expected McConnell to hold it until after the election to motivate the base like 2016, but then pass it in lame duck if Trump or Senate majority lost. Not sure why he is rushing it, especially since it doesn't look like he'll need the McSally vote.

You fill it now to help with the ability to take the election. You want the 6-3 court to assist with vote disenfranchisement by invalidating or upholding irrational vote invalidation. You then have the ACA. There are not any unresolved State abortion restrictions, but maybe one “appears” over the next month. This move to fill the seat is basically to hedge the bets on working the election outcome in your favor. It has reciprocal issues to the Republicons, but when have ever considered that over “winning?”

 

[theeedude]

Well, explanation for the rush didn't take long:

GOP will ask Supreme Court to limit mail voting in Pennsylvania in first post-RBG test

Republicans plan to ask the Supreme Court to review a major Pennsylvania state court ruling that extended the due date for mail ballots in the key battleground state, teeing up the first test for t…

thehill.com

"Republicans plan to ask the Supreme Court to review a major Pennsylvania state court ruling that extended the due date for mail ballots in the key battleground state, teeing up the first test for the Supreme Court since the death of its liberal leader Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg."

 

[Fanatical Meat]

If your highest priority is to fill the seat you vote now when you've got the votes in hand. If your priority is to help Trump get re-elected you fill it later but risk goes up due to uncertainty.

A choice has been made.

If Trump was smart he'd withhold the nom until after the election.

If Trump was thinking in 5d chess terms he’d appoint Hillary.
I’m not kidding either.
He could easily get many feplorables aboard, he could easily get a bunch of R senators to agree.
Throws it back to Democrat’s. President Trump has no policies or beliefs he doesn’t care if abortion is legal or illegal.

 

[eelw]

Certainty is a reason.

Mitch isn't going to loose his seat.

Of Trumpity Dumpity losing, GOP losing Senate and Moscow Mitch losing, yes Mitch losing is the least likely. But ramming through this justice is going to have repercussions against this cheater. Make him sit as minority leader where he can't do anything as Dems reverse all the damage he's done.

 

[cytg111]

They can expel him with a majority vote right?

 

[hal2kilo]

They can expel him with a majority vote right?

Only if they have some criminal or ethical charges. Can't discharge someone for political crimes. At least not in America for the time being.

 

[Maxima1]

Well, explanation for the rush didn't take long:

GOP will ask Supreme Court to limit mail voting in Pennsylvania in first post-RBG test

Republicans plan to ask the Supreme Court to review a major Pennsylvania state court ruling that extended the due date for mail ballots in the key battleground state, teeing up the first test for t…

thehill.com

"Republicans plan to ask the Supreme Court to review a major Pennsylvania state court ruling that extended the due date for mail ballots in the key battleground state, teeing up the first test for the Supreme Court since the death of its liberal leader Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg."

There's also this:

Pennsylvania's 'naked ballot' ruling will 'cause electoral chaos,' Philly commissioner warns

Letter to lawmakers says state could face legal crisis similar to Florida in 2000

www.phillyvoice.com

 

[hal2kilo]

There's also this:

Pennsylvania's 'naked ballot' ruling will 'cause electoral chaos,' Philly commissioner warns

Letter to lawmakers says state could face legal crisis similar to Florida in 2000

www.phillyvoice.com

Yep we can sleep at night comfortably according to other posters, that the Dem voting will win out. Nothing to worry about.

 

[nickqt]

There's also this:

Pennsylvania's 'naked ballot' ruling will 'cause electoral chaos,' Philly commissioner warns

Letter to lawmakers says state could face legal crisis similar to Florida in 2000

www.phillyvoice.com

Trump has been interfering in the 2020 election for months now via the AG and USPS. This is a shocker.

 

[K1052]

Of Trumpity Dumpity losing, GOP losing Senate and Moscow Mitch losing, yes Mitch losing is the least likely. But ramming through this justice is going to have repercussions against this cheater. Make him sit as minority leader where he can't do anything as Dems reverse all the damage he's done.

I understand the anger but his loss is very very unlikely. Certainly way less likely than about 10 other seats.

If you want to make Mitch cry then hope for a big senate majority and a really pissed off Biden, both of which are more likely.

 

[Muse]

Yeah, that pretty nuts. Some have attempted to to quantify the leanings. The methodological seem to be unlikely to catch overall shifts over time and more likely show relative positional relationships for a given time frame.

Correct me if I'm wrong but my impression, looking at that chart, is that SC justices tend on average to become more liberal over time. I would hope! Thing is, conservatism generally springs from insecurity and SC justices are secure in their job and so one would expect that since they don't have to fear for their livelihood they could be more magnanimous in their outlook.

 

[Muse]

Don't lose focus on what's really happening in the country beyond the surface of politics. Conservatism is imploding and desperately grasping for straws and hail maries like SCOTUS and vote suppression to save itself. Trickle down has failed convincingly and become a meme, COVID exposed the failure of small government, young people are far more liberal, and social issues have shifted to the left, with overwhelming support for abortion rights and gay marriage. A sanctimonious bible-thumper SCOTUS will only accelerate it. Liberals have finally started leaving the coasts and moving into swing and red states, flipping them blue, a trend that will accelerate with COVID and work from home. And the new ranks of tougher Democrat politicians are being forged by Mitch McConnell's politics with the triangulating and compromising old guard being slowly but surely phased out.

I so hope you are right, best news I've heard in a long time if so!

 

[Muse]

Now that RGB has died, and the liberals have threatened to pack the court, I think Trump has a very real shot of being re-elected. The fight for the supreme court composition is something that motivates conservatives to go to the polls. I really didn't think Trump had a chance until I drove across most of the state of Ohio last weekend. More than 2/3 of the yard signs I saw were pro Trump.

Signs on Ohio lawns and you're suddenly convinced Trump has a real shot? Maybe a shot at Ohio. Of course he has a shot. But I don't see that the death of RBG changes things all that much in terms of his chances of reelection. He's accomplished not jack shit in almost 4 years but fuck things up... big time.

If you drive across California, you'll probably see a lot of pro Trump signs along the highways too.

And his chances of winning California are about the chance of finding out the moon is made of mozzarella.

 

[Ajay]

Correct me if I'm wrong but my impression, looking at that chart, is that SC justices tend on average to become more liberal over time. I would hope! Thing is, conservatism generally springs from insecurity and SC justices are secure in their job and so one would expect that since they don't have to fear for their livelihood they could be more magnanimous in their outlook.

Yeah, that seems to be a trend moving past ~1965. Douglas looks like an outlier - not sure if that's just a statistical anomaly.