GeForce Titan coming end of February

[OCGuy]

How did you manage that?

See the post below your response...was F5ing Newegg, who got Fermi first...had it early delivery next morning....was posting screen shots on this forum by afternoon. Couldnt find anyone else who claimed to have a retail card delivered by that point. Obviously doesn't mean it didn't happen, but I had to be one of the first.

Edit: Found the thread. Reading through it, there was very limited availability. I remember 480 selling out almost instantly it seemed:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2065410&highlight=gtx480


Bring on Titan..

 

[GodisanAtheist]

CFO commentary from the quarterly results:


8% growth is not shrinking.

I'm assuming that's in reference to Nvidia, since AMD still makes chipsets and their quarterly reports never have the words growth and revenue in them *Zing*

Anyhow, I am unsurprised that Nvidia is seeing revenue growth in GPUs by cutting production cost (die size) while increasing/holding steady the price. I also am not sure whether the term "GPU Market" also includes their relatively successful Tesla line of cards as well. Lastly, Nvidia's revenue growth could very well be coming at the expense of AMD. Nvidia could gain 8%, total card revenue for all vendors can drop 10% and that would just mean AMD is getting slaughtered (which keeps happening) absorbing Nvidia's gains into their marketshare along with a shrinking market.

Anyhow, that was probably the most marginal point in my entire post.

 

[Ibra]

$549 / $369 is a 48.78% price increase.

1) Fastest single GPU in the hands of enthusiasts 13 months since launch, delivered at historical NV/ATI price levels (nothing unusual);

2) Paid itself off with bitcoin mining (and still making $);

3) Sufficient 3GB VRAM for mods, something that NV charges for extra on GTX680 4GB;

4) Still superior resale residual/staying value to $499 GTX480, $499 GTX580 or $649 GTX280. 1.5 years since 480 launched it was on sale on Newegg for $175-225. GTX280 launched for $649, 1 month later NV had to drop prices to $499, 9 months later HD4890 matched it for $259 (GTX285 was going for $350 just 9 months after 280 launched); GTX580 was $499 and about 17 months later HD7850 delivered this level of performance for $175 with OC. There is no card in sight for $175 that can beat an HD7970 with OC;

5) Beats the 680 consistently at 1600P and in multi-monitor gaming, including in most demanding PC games (Metro 2033, Crysis 1-2, BF3, DirectCompute titles, etc.)

6) Shipped with enthusiast overclocking features for no extra cost (dual bios switch, voltage unlock).

7) NV is raising the price from $499 of GTX580 to $899 for the Titan (80.16% increase) (this is actually unusual).

8) If AMD didn't raise prices on their products, the higher cost of 28nm wafers would have likely made sure their GPU division lost $ every single quarter in 2012 and 2013. If AMD goes bankrupt, Point #7 becomes $899 ---> $1,499 for flagship NV GPUs or NV releases new generations at a much slower pace, milking minor performance bumps.

9) NV couldn't get GK100/110 out on time last year under any circumstances (Proof: 6 months delay for the entire GTX660Ti and below desktop line, corporate clients like Oak Ridge only started getting deliveries of K20 chips by late Fall 2012 suggesting a huge backlog of Tesla cards from unfulfilled contracts, limited 10K unit launch for Titan in early 2013 ==> means this GK110 Titan chip was unmanufacturable in March 2012).

10) If people thought GTX680 was really mid-range, and NV purposely held back GK110, why did the proceed to give NV $500 of their $ for a mid-range chip and then blame AMD for these prices? A rational consumer would then find both HD7970 and 680 overpriced and skip them entirely assuming they truly believe that both companies are overcharging them. No one put a gun to anyone's head to buy GK104 for $500 or GTX690 for $1K. Since people did, NV knows people will pay those prices, so why lower them? You seem to be placing the high prices 100% as AMD's fault.....NV's consumers had nothing to do with buying mid-range GK104 at $500 you are saying?

11) 8800GTX beat HD2900XT/3870 by about 50%, similar to what the Titan is rumored to beat HD7970GE for. NV priced 8800GTX at $599 though, not $899. You still blaming AMD for letting NV raise the price given a similar differential in performance between 8800GTX and 2900XT/3870? Not logical.

Any questions? :awe:

No questions. Just fact: AMD still loosing money.

Do nVidia Focus Group members get all the new hardware or is it at the discretion of nVidia?

Ask RussianSensation. If he doesn't write AMD Focus Group under the sig doesn't mean he's not into it. Both Groups can't have big differences.

 

[Tweak155]

<snip>
I'm also worried about the implications for price/perf in the long term if AMD goes into Ch. 11 (reorg) or Ch. 7 bankruptcy (liquidation). If NV has a de facto monopoly on desktop GPUs, what is to keep them from jacking up prices and given a worse price/perf ratio?

Good question, but I would think if they don't give people an incentive to buy, they won't buy. If that next card only provided a marginal increase (10%), not a lot of people would be motivated to jump outside of those die-hard gotta have the best people, but that won't keep a company's profits up..

As far as big performance increases and setting their own price tag... who knows. I imagine they would be in a similar situation they are in now. Those people looking for $/perf ratio are going AMD atm, so not much different to them I suppose (as in those cards would not be purchased).

 

[tviceman]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but xbit labs is saying GK110 is 521 mm^2. Same size as GF110, smaller than GF100, and certainly not the biggest chip ever as has been spouted on this board over and over again.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...d_Up_Launch_of_GeForce_GTX_Titan_Reports.html

 

[n0x1ous]

Well this is going to be fun going forward:

"Since the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, we have been reporting three primary financial reporting segments &#8211; GPU, Professional Solutions Business, and Consumer Products Business. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013, we began reporting two primary financial reporting segments &#8211; GPU and Tegra® Processor."

This means now it's going to be impossible to isolate mobile/desktop GPU revenues/profits from the Professional Solutions (Tesla and Quadro lines) without getting equity research reports.

They hit record revenue but if you look at Q4 2012, there are slowdowns.

-- Most of the growth in 2012 came from Tegra, not the GPU business. This highlights NV's desire to seek growth in other market segments. Notebook GPUs grew, desktop ones, not so much. More details below. "Revenue for fiscal 2013 was a record at $4.28 billion, up 7.1 percent from the prior fiscal year. This increase was largely attributable to record revenue for our Tegra Processor business, which increased 29.3 percent from the previous year."

-- Overall GPU business grew just 2% in all of 2012, Nvidia's desktop GPUs grew 5.9% in 2012.

-- Quarter over Quarter (Q4 2012 vs. Q3 2012) is where you can see that NV didn't have a stellar quarter. Revenues were down, OPEX up, net income down. Specifically, the GPU business had revenue of $832.5 million, down $61.7 million or 6.9 percent sequentially. The sequential decline stems from desktop GPUs (pg. 4)

-- Operating expenses for fiscal 2013 (2012 year) were $1.58 billion, up $169.9 million, or 12.1 percent, from the prior year. The increase in operating expenses was primarily due to investments in our Tegra Processor business. This includes efforts to build next-generation energy-efficient computing architectures, such as Tegra 4.

Problem is Tegra 4 is having trouble getting any significant design wins.

Overall investors are unlikely to be impressed by this. The desktop GPU market shows weakness, and Tegra 4 seems like a miss compared to Tegra 3, and Quadro GPU sales are down due to general weakness in Western Europe. Nvidia is also forecasting a 'nothing special' Q1 2013 (FY Q1 2014).

Q1 2012 revenue was $925 Million and Nvidia is forecasting just $940 million for Q1 2013. That's not a particularly strong guidance which likely means no new products in the GPU space from NV in all of Q1 2013. The Titan won't even make a dent to matter here. Sounds like refresh GK114 won't be launching Q1 2013 then with such a low guidance.

Growth in discrete is impressive no matter how small considering the shrinking market. Tegra 4 is in its infancy, so too early to be claiming what its uptake will be. Pretty negative view of this RS. Hate to see your take on AMD's latest quarter.

Regardless of the numbers, I have much more confidence in Nvidia's future (led by JHH), then AMD and the current token CEO

 

[tviceman]

You may jokes about this but it's no laughing matter to me. AMD drivers have long been shakier than NV's for multi-GPU, and if the company is dragged down by the crappy CPU results, it may mean fewer and fewer resources left for AMD's GPU staff to the point where even single-GPU drivers are negatively impacted.

For similar reasons, I always think twice about buying high-end camera gear from a manufacturer that isn't doing well financially. I don't want to be stuck with a bunch of gear made by a defunct company (losing a lot of resale value in the process). AMD cards wouldn't lose TOO much value overnight if AMD went into bankruptcy, but the loss of support and parts for RMA and such, would make me nervous.

I'm also worried about the implications for price/perf in the long term if AMD goes into Ch. 11 (reorg) or Ch. 7 bankruptcy (liquidation). If NV has a de facto monopoly on desktop GPUs, what is to keep them from jacking up prices and given a worse price/perf ratio?

Alternative forms of gaming are gaining popularity. New consoles are coming late this year, ouya is coming, mobile continues to grow in sales and get more powerful, browser games, etc. If one's hobby of high end PC gaming is no longer making sense, but one still wants to play games, there are plenty of alternatives. Jacking up prices does not mean sales revenue and overall profits will follow, though. If AMD went out of business and maxwell raised prices to the point of offering the same or worse perf per $, no one would upgrade and the higher prices would be detrimental to both their revenue and bottom dollar.

Especially with new consoles on the horizon, nvidia cannot afford to drive customers away.

 

[blackened23]

Nice, looks like it's being released early - on the 18th.

Hopefully it's an actual hard launch instead of paper.

 

[sontin]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but xbit labs is saying GK110 is 521 mm^2. Same size as GF110, smaller than GF100, and certainly not the biggest chip ever as has been spouted on this board over and over again.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...d_Up_Launch_of_GeForce_GTX_Titan_Reports.html

Die size comes from here:
http://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/1996/NVIDIA_GeForce_GTX_Titan.html

So it's not official.

 

[Ares202]

Nice, looks like it's being released early - on the 18th.

Hopefully it's an actual hard launch instead of paper.

For those who can't afford titan, when are the rest of the NV 7xxx series being released?

 

[tviceman]

For those who can't afford titan, when are the rest of the NV 7xxx series being released?

No one knows for sure, but my guess is starting in mid-late April, with a slow roll over the course of a few months like they do with all their products.

 

[Zanovar]

For those who can't afford titan, when are the rest of the NV 7xxx series being released?

Lol,i think youll find there are quite a lot of peeps who can afford the titan.as someone said in another thread and i might be quoting him wrong(apologies in advance)"would you pay 25$ for a hambrger".

 

[Ares202]

Lol,i think youll find there are quite a lot of peeps who can afford the titan.as someone said in another thread and i might be quoting him wrong(apologies in advance)"would you pay 25$ for a hambrger".

Indeed there are, Although I cannot (i.e cannot justify the outlay) so I ask the question above...

No one knows for sure, but my guess is starting in mid-late April, with a slow roll over the course of a few months like they do with all their products.

Thanks! Something like a 770/760 would do nicely

 

[Zanovar]

Indeed there are, Although I cannot so I ask the question above...



Thanks! Something like a 770/760 would do nicely

Dont know bud,your guess is as good as anybodys.

 

[tviceman]

Indeed there are, Although I cannot (i.e cannot justify the outlay) so I ask the question above...



Thanks! Something like a 770/760 would do nicely

Don't expect big performance jumps at the price point you are looking to spend. Probably 5%, maybe 10% at most.

 

[Ares202]

Don't expect big performance jumps at the price point you are looking to spend. Probably 5%, maybe 10% at most.

5-10% From a 560-ti?

 

[Eureka]

Good question, but I would think if they don't give people an incentive to buy, they won't buy. If that next card only provided a marginal increase (10%), not a lot of people would be motivated to jump outside of those die-hard gotta have the best people, but that won't keep a company's profits up..

As far as big performance increases and setting their own price tag... who knows. I imagine they would be in a similar situation they are in now. Those people looking for $/perf ratio are going AMD atm, so not much different to them I suppose (as in those cards would not be purchased).

nvidia is publicly traded. If it can't deliver profits to its shareholders, it's in trouble. Even if it did have a monopoly, it would have to keep a certain level of sales, and because it doesn't sell a commodity, it would have to keep providing an incentive to create sales.

Intel already dominates the CPU market over AMD, but their prices haven't skyrocketed. You could argue that AMD CPUs are better perf/price, but you don't see people scrambling to get AMD CPUs, just because Intel is providing better performance all around.

Right now the only reason why we even argue nvidia vs amd is because the performance between the two companies is relatively close. If you had a performance gap like AMD vs Intel, it would be a closed book by now.

5-10% From a 560-ti?

Considering the performance jump for midrange cards between 5xx and 6xx is really only about 25%, still don't expect a huge increase. FWIW a 570 is competitive with a 660, and the 560 Ti is decently ahead of the 650 Ti now. A 760, in theory, wouldn't be a huge jump either. Look towards a future 770.

 

[tviceman]

5-10% From a 560-ti?

No, what I mean is if you are looking to spend $300, then what you can get for $300 right now will probably only end up 5-10% faster if you wait to spend that same $300 in 3-4 months. I'm being conservative with my guesstimates as there are some significant chances that there will be small price drops along the way, but don't expect drastically faster hardware over what you can buy RIGHT NOW at the same price poins.

 

[SirPauly]

Well this is going to be fun going forward:

"Since the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, we have been reporting three primary financial reporting segments &#8211; GPU, Professional Solutions Business, and Consumer Products Business. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013, we began reporting two primary financial reporting segments &#8211; GPU and Tegra® Processor."

This means now it's going to be impossible to isolate mobile/desktop GPU revenues/profits from the Professional Solutions (Tesla and Quadro lines) without getting equity research reports.

They hit record revenue but if you look at Q4 2012, there are slowdowns.

-- Most of the growth in 2012 came from Tegra, not the GPU business. This highlights NV's desire to seek growth in other market segments. Notebook GPUs grew, desktop ones, not so much. More details below. "Revenue for fiscal 2013 was a record at $4.28 billion, up 7.1 percent from the prior fiscal year. This increase was largely attributable to record revenue for our Tegra Processor business, which increased 29.3 percent from the previous year."

-- Overall GPU business grew just 2% in all of 2012, Nvidia's desktop GPUs grew 5.9% in 2012.

-- Quarter over Quarter (Q4 2012 vs. Q3 2012) is where you can see that NV didn't have a stellar quarter. Revenues were down, OPEX up, net income down. Specifically, the GPU business had revenue of $832.5 million, down $61.7 million or 6.9 percent sequentially. The sequential decline stems from desktop GPUs (pg. 4)

-- Operating expenses for fiscal 2013 (2012 year) were $1.58 billion, up $169.9 million, or 12.1 percent, from the prior year. The increase in operating expenses was primarily due to investments in our Tegra Processor business. This includes efforts to build next-generation energy-efficient computing architectures, such as Tegra 4.

Problem is Tegra 4 is having trouble getting any significant design wins.

Overall investors are unlikely to be impressed by this. The desktop GPU market shows weakness, and Tegra 4 seems like a miss compared to Tegra 3, and Quadro GPU sales are down due to general weakness in Western Europe. Nvidia is also forecasting a 'nothing special' Q1 2013 (FY Q1 2014).

Q1 2012 revenue was $925 Million and Nvidia is forecasting just $940 million for Q1 2013. That's not a particularly strong guidance which likely means no new products in the GPU space from NV in all of Q1 2013. The Titan won't even make a dent to matter here. Sounds like refresh GK114 won't be launching Q1 2013 then with such a low guidance.

There was growth despite not having chip-set revenue.

nVidia holds around 65 percent over-all discrete GPU share now.

Sequentially they were down but they had a record third quarter and was in guidance.

According to nVidia they have more Tegra 4 design wins now than they did with total Tegra 3!

And RS, hehe, they used Steam data, too!

 

[Zanovar]

No, what I mean is if you are looking to spend $300, then what you can get for $300 right now will probably only end up 5-10% faster if you wait to spend that same $300 in 3-4 months. I'm being conservative with my guesstimates as there are some significant chances that there will be small price drops along the way, but don't expect drastically faster hardware over what you can buy RIGHT NOW at the same price poins.

This,as my pm to ares.

 

[VulgarDisplay]

No one knows for sure, but my guess is starting in mid-late April, with a slow roll over the course of a few months like they do with all their products.

I thought all the current rumors pointed to both nvidia and amd not releasing anything new until the holiday season or 2014.

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I thought all the current rumors pointed to both nvidia and amd not releasing anything new until the holiday season or 2014.

Seems highly unlikely.

Titan is going to force their hand, it's going to probably be about a month after titan when we'll see a GTX 780 /w 3GB of ram and far more reasonable prices. It might be 13 SMX, it might just be 3GB vs 6GB, Titan is a publicity stunt really, because they can.

(imo)

 

[CurrentlyPissed]

I thought all the current rumors pointed to both nvidia and amd not releasing anything new until the holiday season or 2014.

Correct, granted they are't happy about how the details were released and will be clairfying this week.

http://api.viglink.com/api/click?fo...2F55F585258F&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13608558864412

 

[CurrentlyPissed]

Seems highly unlikely.

Titan is going to force their hand, it's going to probably be about a month after titan when we'll see a GTX 780 /w 3GB of ram and far more reasonable prices. It might be 13 SMX, it might just be 3GB vs 6GB, Titan is a publicity stunt really, because they can.

(imo)

There is nothing even announced at this point. Not even a rumor. Theres no way anything is out before at minimum October/November.

 

[n0x1ous]

There is nothing even announced at this point. Not even a rumor. Theres no way anything is out before at minimum October/November.

There was nothing about GTX 580 until a few weeks before its release. Everyone thought GF100 was broken and couldn't be tweaked, and then all of sudden GTX 580 and GF110 was a reality before 6970.

There is a definite possibly of a refresh before Q4.