FUD: NV to drop GT200 Prices

[Dadofamunky]

Originally posted by: AmberClad
The size of the die and the amount of silicon area required to produce one? (Also, low yields due to the size of the die.) Expectations that RV770 would be far less competitive than it turned out to be? Miscalculation of how much people are willing to pay for a video card, with the economy and gas prices as they are?

etc, etc, etc

Bingo! The last factor is probably the biggest one. Serves 'em right, trying to charge 2005 prices in a 2008 economy. Hey NVidia, ya might wanna get a clue, much of your market is looking at catastrophic drops in their home values at precisely the time it costs them $50-$80 to fill their tank. Suddenly a $650 GTX280 doesn't look like such a high priority anymore. Add to that the underwhelming performance levels compared to cost, and one has to wonder what Jen-Hsun Huang has been smoking lately.

I decided never to buy NVidia again back when they had the nerve to charge money just to add HD video playback drivers to their cards. NVidia is run by such a bunch of greedheads. They took it for granted that ATI would never compete again, and that they could buck the deflationary trends in computer hardware. You won't catch me cryin' for them. I just hope ATI/AMD survives.

Originally posted by: munky

Originally posted by: geoffry
NVDA just lowered guidance and is getting CRUCIFIED after hours....

Big monolithic GPU seems to have been an absolutely terrible choice.

So much for that "can of whoop ass" huang spoke of at the analyst day.

I don't think the monolithic gpu is the culprit here, but rather NV trying to kill 2 birds with one stone. They could have spent all those gt200 transistors on better game performance and new features, but they also wanted a slice of the gpgpu pie too badly. So in the end, you have a gpu that's good in both areas, but isn't so efficient in performance/mm^2 when it comes to gaming.

One thing's for sure, selling technology and not a solution is a good way to report bad numbers at the end of a quarter...

 

[nRollo]

Originally posted by: tuteja1986

Originally posted by: Cookie Monster
To my knowledge i doubt even an HD4870 can catch up with the GTX280 with 1GB of memory. How so? well the only time you will need that extra framebuffer is when all of a sudden your card crawls at a certain setting which basically indicates that the card has run out of framebuffer. However ATi cards never seemed to actually benefit from large framebuffers at all due to their better memory management/algorithm. Diamond HD3870 1GB model is a good example. Hardly any gain at all.

Another thing ive noticed is that HD4870 performs around ~86% of a GTX280 relative to avg fps at 2560x1600 (this is according to ATs numbers). However when you factor in min fps the GTX seems to be more faster in that regard.

Example Crysis at 1920x1080 DX10 high details

Anyway, maybe AMDs experience in manufacturing chips is showing in ATI's new GPU. From a die shot, the RV770 is very densely packed. Where as G200 is not very much so.

http://www.firingsquad.com/har...performance/page14.asp

HL2 episode two 2560x1600x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 124.8
$300 4870 : 58
$560 GTX280 : 57.8

Oblivion HDR 2560x1600x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 46.3
$300 4870 : 29.6
$560 GTX280 : 25.9


ET QW 2560x1600x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 72.6
$300 4870 : 52.4
$560 GTX280 : 51.9

Company of heroes 1920x1200x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 66.5
$300 4870 : 40.6
$560 GTX280 : 57.7

so cookie, so GTX280 is worth $160 to $260 extra ? it doesn't even have DX10.1 support which games like Diablo 3 and even rumors valve e3 2008 announcement of Dx10.1 support HL2 episode 3 , Portal 2 and Left for dead. Only one thing is going for GTX2XX series is that they support Physicx.

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X, and again, you can't compare CF to single GPUs because there differences in playability game to game. You also forget 16X CSAA which doesn't carry the performance hit of 8X AA and offers better IQ.

2. DX10.1 is somewhat of a moot point. The only game that offered it didn't offer any gains in IQ, only performance gains from what I've read. The question will become "How many games launch with DX10.1 before DX11 arrives?" IMHO.

 

[Aberforth]

Rollo, do you think developers won't use DX 10.1 because NV is not supporting it? I THINK NOT, nv cannot monopolize everything in the industry. DX10.1 has serious performance enhancements which nv was too stupid to not include in it's overpriced products.

btw amd is pushin dx10.1: http://www.techpowerup.com/644...with_DirectX_10.1.html

 

[BFG10K]

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X,

LOL, so now you're arguing against IQ improvements? My my, how the see-saw of your arguments swings depending on where nVidia sits.

Most people don?t buy a GTX280 either so what?s your point? The fact is those that do are exactly the kind of people that are likely to care about high AA levels.

and again, you can't compare CF to single GPUs because there differences in playability game to game.

Ignore CF and just focus on the single 4870?s performance then. In those benchmarks it edges the GTX280 in three out of four of games using 8xMSAA while costing less than half the price and having half the VRAM.

You also forget 16X CSAA which doesn't carry the performance hit of 8X AA and offers better IQ.

It does not offer better IQ than 8xMSAA. Please stop spreading misinformation.

 

[Toonces]

Originally posted by: nRollo

Originally posted by: tuteja1986

Originally posted by: Cookie Monster
To my knowledge i doubt even an HD4870 can catch up with the GTX280 with 1GB of memory. How so? well the only time you will need that extra framebuffer is when all of a sudden your card crawls at a certain setting which basically indicates that the card has run out of framebuffer. However ATi cards never seemed to actually benefit from large framebuffers at all due to their better memory management/algorithm. Diamond HD3870 1GB model is a good example. Hardly any gain at all.

Another thing ive noticed is that HD4870 performs around ~86% of a GTX280 relative to avg fps at 2560x1600 (this is according to ATs numbers). However when you factor in min fps the GTX seems to be more faster in that regard.

Example Crysis at 1920x1080 DX10 high details

Anyway, maybe AMDs experience in manufacturing chips is showing in ATI's new GPU. From a die shot, the RV770 is very densely packed. Where as G200 is not very much so.

http://www.firingsquad.com/har...performance/page14.asp

HL2 episode two 2560x1600x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 124.8
$300 4870 : 58
$560 GTX280 : 57.8

Oblivion HDR 2560x1600x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 46.3
$300 4870 : 29.6
$560 GTX280 : 25.9


ET QW 2560x1600x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 72.6
$300 4870 : 52.4
$560 GTX280 : 51.9

Company of heroes 1920x1200x32 8xAA/16xAF
$400 4850CF : 66.5
$300 4870 : 40.6
$560 GTX280 : 57.7

so cookie, so GTX280 is worth $160 to $260 extra ? it doesn't even have DX10.1 support which games like Diablo 3 and even rumors valve e3 2008 announcement of Dx10.1 support HL2 episode 3 , Portal 2 and Left for dead. Only one thing is going for GTX2XX series is that they support Physicx.

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X, and again, you can't compare CF to single GPUs because there differences in playability game to game. You also forget 16X CSAA which doesn't carry the performance hit of 8X AA and offers better IQ.

2. DX10.1 is somewhat of a moot point. The only game that offered it didn't offer any gains in IQ, only performance gains from what I've read. The question will become "How many games launch with DX10.1 before DX11 arrives?" IMHO.

I'm dizzy from all the spinning

1. Sure, a fair argument. For some people the performance hit from AF, soft shadows, etc... might not be worth it as well, but that's the subjective opinion of an end-user. The crux of the argument for me comes down to a $300 video card beating a $620 video card with 8XAA on today's games which might translate into the difference between having noticeably better IQ (ie. 4XAA v. 2XAA) on more demanding titles released a few months from now. All conjecture on my part, of course, but interesting nevertheless.

2. PhysX is somewhat of a moot point. The only game that offered it didn't offer any gains in performance, only added objects from what I've read. The question will become "How many games launch with PhysX support before it becomes irrelevant?" IMHO.

 

[ArchAngel777]

Originally posted by: BFG10K

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X,

LOL, so now you're arguing against IQ improvements? My my, how the see-saw of your arguments swings depending on where nVidia sits.

Most people don?t buy a GTX280 either so what?s your point? The fact is those that do are exactly the kind of people that are likely to care about high AA levels.

and again, you can't compare CF to single GPUs because there differences in playability game to game.

Ignore CF and just focus on the single 4870?s performance then. In those benchmarks it edges the GTX280 in three out of four of games using 8xMSAA while costing less than half the price and having half the VRAM.

You also forget 16X CSAA which doesn't carry the performance hit of 8X AA and offers better IQ.

It does not offer better IQ than 8xMSAA. Please stop spreading misinformation.

I was about to reply to Rollo when I noticed BFG already took care of his ridiculously skewed post. Thanks.

 

[Janooo]

Originally posted by: BFG10K

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X,

LOL, so now you're arguing against IQ improvements? My my, how the see-saw of your arguments swings depending on where nVidia sits.

Most people don?t buy a GTX280 either so what?s your point? The fact is those that do are exactly the kind of people that are likely to care about high AA levels.

and again, you can't compare CF to single GPUs because there differences in playability game to game.

Ignore CF and just focus on the single 4870?s performance then. In those benchmarks it edges the GTX280 in three out of four of games using 8xMSAA while costing less than half the price and having half the VRAM.

You also forget 16X CSAA which doesn't carry the performance hit of 8X AA and offers better IQ.

It does not offer better IQ than 8xMSAA. Please stop spreading misinformation.

OC 4870 @950MHz could end up the best single GPU card at the moment. I am not sure how much OC is left in 280.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Originally posted by: Janooo
OC 4870 @950MHz could end up the best single GPU card at the moment. I am not sure how much OC is left in 280.

you're counting the chicks before they've hatched

while there is to be a new card that has a firmware that allows it to go up to 950, that doesn't mean it can hit 950, and even if it could it will most likely require exotic and expensive cooling solutions to reach that high

 

[chizow]

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles

Originally posted by: Janooo
OC 4870 @950MHz could end up the best single GPU card at the moment. I am not sure how much OC is left in 280.

you're counting the chicks before they've hatched

while there is to be a new card that has a firmware that allows it to go up to 950, that doesn't mean it can hit 950, and even if it could it will most likely require exotic and expensive cooling solutions to reach that high

Plus you'd most likely need to rock a CPU that isn't released yet to see a difference, maybe a 5GHz Nehalem. I doubt people would notice much difference between a 280/260/4870 or any G80/G92/RV770 multi-GPU config with anything less than a 4GHz.

 

[nRollo]

Originally posted by: BFG10K

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X,

LOL, so now you're arguing against IQ improvements? My my, how the see-saw of your arguments swings depending on where nVidia sits.

Most people don?t buy a GTX280 either so what?s your point? The fact is those that do are exactly the kind of people that are likely to care about high AA levels.

Agreed. I'm not arguing against AA, I'm saying most people don't think the performance hit is worth the difference in IQ. I believe I even have some PMs from you to that effect in my box at NZONE from when we discussed you avoiding SLi. In any case, all other factors aside, if you had a choice between a card that is equal at 8XAA and slower at 4XAA (HD4870) or a card that's equal at 8XAA and faster at 4X AA (GTX280) which do you think has more flexible AA? Now consider the GTX280 transparency modes vs ATi's Adaptive- which do you prefer BFG?

Originally posted by: BFG10K

and again, you can't compare CF to single GPUs because there differences in playability game to game.

Ignore CF and just focus on the single 4870?s performance then. In those benchmarks it edges the GTX280 in three out of four of games using 8xMSAA while costing less than half the price and having half the VRAM. [?Q]
I think the 4870s are a great deal, but that the GTX280 is overall the more powerful/flexible card. And it costs a lot more. So I imagine a lot of people looking for a super deal will buy HD4870s, and the people looking for "best" will buy GT280s.

Originally posted by: BFG10K

You also forget 16X CSAA which doesn't carry the performance hit of 8X AA and offers better IQ.

It does not offer better IQ than 8xMSAA. Please stop spreading misinformation.

Thank you for bringing this up. While it's true 16XCSAA can offer similar/better IQ at times, you are correct that sometimes it's worse, depending on the nature of the scene being rendered. So that isn't the "obvious choice" my post made it appear to be. I talk to ChrisRay too much, he's all about the 16XCSAA.
You're correct in that it's a mixed bag, sort of like multicard, not a clear cut "always better".

 

[Compddd]

Originally posted by: nRollo

Originally posted by: BFG10K

1. Most people don't use 8XAA because it's an incremental advantage in IQ over 4X,

LOL, so now you're arguing against IQ improvements? My my, how the see-saw of your arguments swings depending on where nVidia sits.

Most people don?t buy a GTX280 either so what?s your point? The fact is those that do are exactly the kind of people that are likely to care about high AA levels.

In any case, all other factors aside, if you had a choice between a card that is equal at 8XAA and slower at 4XAA (HD4870) or a card that's equal at 8XAA and faster at 4X AA (GTX280) which do you think has more flexible AA? Now consider the GTX280 transparency modes vs ATi's Adaptive- which do you prefer BFG?

Good point, except you forgot to factor in and mention one of them costs less than half of the other one.

 

[AmberClad]

Originally posted by: n7
Basically it's going to come down to a 1 GB 4870 vs. a GTX 280 unless the 4870X2 fixes all the CF drawbacks magically (as you said so accurately).
And the one that gets my money will depend on pricing really, though availability of the 4870 1 GB today for <$350 would very likely win as i don't expect the GTX 280 to hit below $500 for a while.

You're apparently wrong . GTX280s to drop to $499 or possibly lower.

 

[nitromullet]

Originally posted by: nRollo
Ignore CF and just focus on the single 4870?s performance then. In those benchmarks it edges the GTX280 in three out of four of games using 8xMSAA while costing less than half the price and having half the VRAM. [?Q]
I think the 4870s are a great deal, but that the GTX280 is overall the more powerful/flexible card. And it costs a lot more. So I imagine a lot of people looking for a super deal will buy HD4870s, and the people looking for "best" will buy GT280s.

This is really what it boils down to isn't it? I don't think that anyone could rightfully argue that the GTX 280 is not the overall superior card between it and the HD 4870. The point is that for many people, the additional cost of the GTX 280 may not be worth it. The interesting thing about this launch in particular is that buyers who are used to and are generally willing to pay extra for the top card are having trouble justifying the additional cost of the GTX 280 over an HD 4870. I personally fit into this category...

I should be receiving my HD 4870 today. I've already owned 4850s and a GTX 260 (long story), so I will be interested to see how the 4870 stacks up. If for some reason I don't feel that it offers as good of an experience as the GTX 260, I've already decided that I'd replace it with a single GTX 280 and call it a day. Based on my personal experiences with the GTX 260 and posted benchmarks of the GTX 280, I'm positive I'd be perfectly happy with the card. IMO, It's just a little hard to justify the expenditure if the gameplay experience matches the benchmarks between the HD 4870 and GTX 280.

I'll be honest here, I have my doubts that I'm really going to be blown away by the 4870... ATI is about 50/50 on my success list for cards that have been highly praised by the media. The X1900XTX was phenomenal, while the 3870 X2 was most definitely not. The 4850... is well... A $150-200 card... Good performance, but the cooling is cheap and it hurts the overall performance/value of the card (I returned mine because of artifacting at stock speeds). So, I'll see how the 4870 stacks up.

Edit: A little update: So far so good. Crysis between the GTX 260 and the HD 4870 is pretty much equal (~20-30fps) @ 1920x1080 2xAA with the "[Triple "C" Pack] VERSION 1.31 + "set to level 4.

http://www.incrysis.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=18999

The GTX 260 runs 8xAA (transparency) a little faster in WoW in a few spots I've found that really test super sampling AA. The difference is about ~20 fps for the 260 vs. ~16-18 for the 4870. Otherwise, they both run about 40-60fps with everything maxed out and 8xAA (supersampling).

 

[sxr7171]

Originally posted by: Powernick50
Is it just me or has nRollo been pretty quiet lately

I don't even understand how we let him back into this community after we found out. Good riddance frankly.

 

[sxr7171]

Originally posted by: nRollo

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
[still outperformed by the 4870, they'd certainly sell, but mostly to people who couldn't find a 4870 in stock

Your post doesn't consider some factors in the equation:

1. Some people buy based on brand and what the company offers. For example, many people like EVGA's step up program, warranty, and customer service.

2. The market share for discrete graphics at present is pretty lopsided in NVIDIA's favor, and it's hard for a company to swing a huge chunk of market share quickly without a decisive reason to jump. The 4870 is a great card, and a great value, but it doesn't "blow away" the GTX260- it edges it in performance. There is no 9700Pro vs 5800U routing, no 8800GTX vs X1950XTX stomping happening here. What one card will do, the other will as well for the most part. (by this I mean you're not going to play one game at 19X12 on a 4870 and only have it playable at 16X10 on a GTX260)

3. The impact of each card's unique features has yet to be seen. A bunch of DX10.1 games launch, that may swing sales. A bunch of PhysX games launch and ATi doesn't have PhysX, it may swing sales.

4. Some people might prefer the unique features of SLi to the unique features of CF.

5. NVIDIA is in a better position financially to engage in a price war than AMD. They also have more money for marketing.

6. Even when ATi had arguably better cards like the X1900XTs, they didn't dominate the market. The 7900s sold very well. Just look at the Steam Survey if you don't believe me.
44K 7900s, 54K X1900/X1950
Obviously even when ATi had a card that won more benchmarks, and had better AF, and AA +HDR they didn't dominate the market- they sold about 10% more cards.

etc.

Too many factors in play to just say "Everyone on the planet will now buy a 4870 if they're buying a video card, NVIDIA gets scraps.".

6. Maybe the 7900s was priced better just a thought. Hence why I bought nVidia that generation.

5. The latest news from Wall Street isn't looking too good. I heard share prices dropped 24% yesterday? If they want to engage in a price war what are they waiting for?

4. Yeah sure, just perfect for those of us wanting to get Nehalem. It could happen with a lot of taking back of trash talking and some hardcore brown-nosing I guess.

3. Physx? Don't make me laugh. Ha Ha, developers want to see installed hardware first and it doesn't look like that's in the cards for nVidia this round at those prices.

2. Oh I know, I currently use Nvidia, but not for long. I don't have enough $$$ to pay $450 and get $300 performance.

1. Sure, but only because of the value proposition. Would I pay an extra $150 to get step-up? No thanks.

 

[sxr7171]

Originally posted by: n7

Originally posted by: nRollo
You're a perfect example. I've never known you to buy based on brand, yet you're not jumping on a 4870, and I'm guessing after your scathing 3870X2 review, you're not saving up for a 4870X2. (at least if the things you didn't like are unchanged)

You'd like a GTX280, and are just waiting for it to be priced at what you're willing to pay. So to you, the GTX280 is the card to have.

Now let's say the rumor is true that NVIDIA gave vendors $90 off the price of a GTX280. Is it conceivable the vendors might knock another few bucks off to jump start sales?

I think so- check this out:

Asus GTX280 at newegg for $579.00 AMIR

I don't know if this is part of the rumored price drop, but it's the cheapest GTX280 I've seen.

The prices are starting to drop due to competition, everybody wins.

You've finally gotten me pretty much figured out

I just posted a few posts back that the price drops already hit the current NCIX sale.
$530 AR for the BFG GTX 280 OC isn't bad, though it's still a little more than i want to be spending.

I do like the GTX 280's performance.
It's a beast for my resolution.
The power consumption, & tales of overheating & loud fan scare me though, & i do not wanting to be spending extra on an aftermarket cooler at the price they are.
I'd consider aftermarket cooling for the 4870 since it's so much better priced, so they get the edge there, but it doesn't seem they need it.

Basically it's going to come down to a 1 GB 4870 vs. a GTX 280 unless the 4870X2 fixes all the CF drawbacks magically (as you said so accurately).
And the one that gets my money will depend on pricing really, though availability of the 4870 1 GB today for <$350 would very likely win as i don't expect the GTX 280 to hit below $500 for a while.

Not bad but $450 is where I'd bite. Saves me the hassle of dealing with CF, unless that 4870x2 can show some serious one card performance.

 

[Zap]

Originally posted by: n7
I do like the GTX 280's performance.
...
The power consumption, & tales of overheating & loud fan scare me though, & i do not wanting to be spending extra on an aftermarket cooler at the price they are.

You shouldn't have anywhere close to an overheating problem unless you were running SLI or Tri-SLI. The stock cooler isn't bad and isn't too noisy either. The rear of the card is a sheet of ridged aluminum to cool the rear RAM chips, The top of the card (side facing you as it is in a case) is aluminum and actually has a heatpipe running to it, so it helps with cooling.

Also, GTX 280 cards with factory waterblocks are available for those going that route.

Originally posted by: AmberClad
GTX280s to drop to $499 or possibly lower.

That's a "potentially" price. We'll eventually find out... maybe another week or two. Don't know for sure.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: AmberClad

Originally posted by: n7
Basically it's going to come down to a 1 GB 4870 vs. a GTX 280 unless the 4870X2 fixes all the CF drawbacks magically (as you said so accurately).
And the one that gets my money will depend on pricing really, though availability of the 4870 1 GB today for <$350 would very likely win as i don't expect the GTX 280 to hit below $500 for a while.

You're apparently wrong . GTX280s to drop to $499 or possibly lower.

Wow...that would sure be nice.....gotta love competition!!!!!

 

[sxr7171]

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles

Originally posted by: Janooo
OC 4870 @950MHz could end up the best single GPU card at the moment. I am not sure how much OC is left in 280.

you're counting the chicks before they've hatched

while there is to be a new card that has a firmware that allows it to go up to 950, that doesn't mean it can hit 950, and even if it could it will most likely require exotic and expensive cooling solutions to reach that high

Like a $20 GPU cooler? Maybe a $50 Thermaltake?

 

[Tempered81]

R700 is the "best" anyway.... RIP 280...

to compete with ATi they'll need to price 280's @ < $450 in about 3 weeks.

 

[sxr7171]

Originally posted by: jaredpace
R700 is the "best" anyway.... RIP 280...

to compete with ATi they'll need to price 280's @ < $450 in about 3 weeks.

In about right now if you ask me.

 

[sourthings]

Originally posted by: sxr7171

Originally posted by: jaredpace
R700 is the "best" anyway.... RIP 280...

to compete with ATi they'll need to price 280's @ < $450 in about 3 weeks.

In about right now if you ask me.

The card will have to be sub $500 at some point. When the 4870x2 comes out at $500 and lays waste to the gtx 280, then it won't just be a a card giving 85% the performance for half the price, it'll be a card giving 150%-175% the performance at 80% of the cost.

You can count on the 280 being $400-$450 within a short while, or they just plain won't sell.

Then again looking at various online e-tailors, 4870s in all brands are out of stock and every 280 under the sun is available. They're already not selling...

 

[Munky]

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles

Originally posted by: Janooo
OC 4870 @950MHz could end up the best single GPU card at the moment. I am not sure how much OC is left in 280.

you're counting the chicks before they've hatched

while there is to be a new card that has a firmware that allows it to go up to 950, that doesn't mean it can hit 950, and even if it could it will most likely require exotic and expensive cooling solutions to reach that high

Plus you'd most likely need to rock a CPU that isn't released yet to see a difference, maybe a 5GHz Nehalem. I doubt people would notice much difference between a 280/260/4870 or any G80/G92/RV770 multi-GPU config with anything less than a 4GHz.

Nonsense. All you need is a monitor with 1920x1200 or higher rez. Are you saying you wouldn't notice a difference with scaling like this?

 

[nRollo]

Originally posted by: sourthings

Originally posted by: sxr7171

Originally posted by: jaredpace
R700 is the "best" anyway.... RIP 280...

to compete with ATi they'll need to price 280's @ < $450 in about 3 weeks.

In about right now if you ask me.

The card will have to be sub $500 at some point. When the 4870x2 comes out at $500 and lays waste to the gtx 280, then it won't just be a a card giving 85% the performance for half the price, it'll be a card giving 150%-175% the performance at 80% of the cost.

You can count on the 280 being $400-$450 within a short while, or they just plain won't sell.

Then again looking at various online e-tailors, 4870s in all brands are out of stock and every 280 under the sun is available. They're already not selling...

Sigh.

1. A lot of people won't buy 4870X2s because they don't like AFR cards, or Crossfire, or both. This isn't any "wishful thinking" on my part, I like AFR cards and multi card configs personally. You can find plenty of complaints on any forum, including this one, about multi GPU configs.
For example, 2/3 new video moderators at AnandTech won't touch SLi or Crossfire. (BFG and n7) This alone is evidence there will remain a market for the single fastest GPU.

2. As far as 4870s being out of stock and GTX280s in stock, there are other factors involved. Like GTX280s are in a much narrower market as the most expensive card you can buy. We have no clue how many 4870s are available for sale. If newegg is out of stock because they shipped 10,000 last week, that's pretty good. If they're out of stock because they shipped 150, well, OK.

3. You have no basis for your supposition of what the GTX280 needs to be priced at to sell, the only way to truly know is to see the levels it sells at across price points.

4. You left out "It will be providing 150-175% of the performance in games that scale well, and 80-90% of the performance in games that don't" in your prediction.

All a moot point, supply/demand will set the price, not debates on forums.

 

[Janooo]

Based on game performance 280 should be around $350.