French national election is likely to reject Le Pen

[alcoholbob]

Noone said that Pen would start a war. I think it was implied that there is limits to what the European Union can withstand and that a frexit would be could be a deciding factor in such an outcome. Without the Union Europe might fall back to its old shenannigans... noone said Pen would declare war on anybody.(i dont even, why even go there?).

Any continental conflict would involve Germany, and no such conflict will start as long as the bulk of U.S. military forces in Europe are in Germany.

 

[cytg111]

Any continental conflict would involve Germany, and no such conflict will start as long as the bulk of U.S. military forces in Europe are in Germany.

Thats some big assumptions that I dont share. Watching the dominos fall one after one and doing nothing about it(a few good men to do nothing), because common, it cant be done is how Trump got elected.

 

[NTMBK]

There have been wars in Europe in the last 72 years, but certainly there hasn't been any outbreak of continent-wide conflicts. The pacification of Germany has been the primary reason as they instigated both World Wars in Europe. But I'm not sure why you think Le Pen is going to start WWIII.

Europe was tearing itself apart long before Germany even existed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

More good news following the shutdown of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands: it looks like Le Pen is going to lose the French national election.

To summarize: both the centrist Macron and the far right Le Pen are into the second round of the election, with Macron holding a slight two-point lead. That may sound like it's close, but remember that everyone who didn't vote for one of the two remaining candidates has to settle on one of them. And in practice, that will very likely favor Macron. He'll have most (if not all) of the left on his side, of course, but he'll likely also scoop up many conservatives who would rather have a moderate from the opposing side than an extremist on theirs. Fillon, the main conservative candidate, is endorsing Macron.

Turns out that you don't get very far in France by preying on paranoia and courting Russia. Now if only we can have that attitude translate to the US come 2018...

Apparently you guys are so stupid you are destined to repeat the past. Did you not learn your lesson the first time with Trump?

People said the same thing about the initial choice of candidates, including Bernie... "Oh, they will all deflect to Hillary". Boy that sure worked out just like you analyzed, amirite?

 

[desura]

Isn't macron the guy who married his teacher 20 yrs senior?

Le Penn would likely plunge the world into a mini depression since that would in fact be the end of the EU and NATO.

Europe's power is much smaller than before. War would not happen with Le Penn.

 

[Genx87]

This shit is only beginning. Le Pen will lose this round. But if nothing changes expect her type to gain more support next round. Gorbechev is correct when saying the world is preparing for war.

 

[Commodus]

Apparently you guys are so stupid you are destined to repeat the past. Did you not learn your lesson the first time with Trump?

People said the same thing about the initial choice of candidates, including Bernie... "Oh, they will all deflect to Hillary". Boy that sure worked out just like you analyzed, amirite?

You might want to brush up on French politics.

As I mentioned: Fillon, the mainstream conservative candidate, is endorsing Macron. Imagine if every Republican candidate outside of Trump decided to grow a spine and endorse Clinton rather than let an incompetent bigot like Trump get in; that's what Fillon just did. Most of his 20 percent of the vote is likely to go to Macron.

And of course, if the conservative losing candidate is backing Macron, you can imagine what the left's losing candidate (Mélenchon) is doing, not to mention the leaders of most smaller parties. He effectively has 64 percent of the vote without lifting a finger. He definitely won't want to take it for granted, but he might not have to do much more than show up.

I'd add that Le Pen isn't the same as Trump. While the claim that Trump is an outsider has always been false (he's just a different kind of insider), Le Pen can't even pretend to be an outsider due to both her father and her experience in politics. No, she's just a racist, ultranationalist asshole. That and she actually had the audacity to meet and be friendly with Putin on camera pre-election. Can you picture Trump being honest about Russia wanting him to win? That's Le Pen in a nutshell.

 

[cytg111]

No, she's just a racist, ultranationalist asshole. That and she actually had the audacity to meet and be friendly with Putin on camera pre-election. Can you picture Trump being honest about Russia wanting him to win? That's Le Pen in a nutshell.

QFT

 

[spacejamz]

Which "polls" were not accurate?

polls or not, most the country didn't think Trump had a snowball's chance in hell on Election Day...IIRC, most of the mainstream media predicted Hillary by over 80 electoral votes on the morning of the election...pretty sure these were based on polls of some sort...

Pretty hilarious to say the polls were accurate after the fact....

 

[desura]

Macron is so creepy though. Like, him marrying that teacher of his makes him look like a little kid.

Le Pen is in a relationship with an Algerian Jew. Interesting for a xenophobe.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

polls or not, most the country didn't think Trump had a snowball's chance in hell on Election Day...IIRC, most of the mainstream media predicted Hillary by over 80 electoral votes on the morning of the election...pretty sure these were based on polls of some sort...

Pretty hilarious to say the polls were accurate after the fact....

Not really. National polls generally had Clinton ahead by 2-4 percentage points. That is precisely where the national vote total finished. Clinton won it by 2.1%. I don't recall anything that close to election that showed Clinton in a blowout situation. They were all very close.

 

[spacejamz]

Not really. National polls generally had Clinton ahead by 2-4 percentage points. That is precisely where the national vote total finished. Clinton won it by 2.1%. I don't recall anything that close to election that showed Clinton in a blowout situation. They were all very close.

I must have been living in a different world that day then...the 'mood' I remember already had the election gift wrapped for Hillary on Tuesday morning...

hell, even here, anyone who suggested Trump had a chance was ridiculed up through that evening...It wasn't until around 9PM Eastern that people were actually starting think to think that Trump could pull this off...

so those poll number you are stating just apply to a national level and don't take electoral votes into consideration?

 

[MomentsofSanity]

I must have been living in a different world that day then...the 'mood' I remember already had the election gift wrapped for Hillary on Tuesday morning...

hell, even here, anyone who suggested Trump had a chance was ridiculed up through that evening...It wasn't until around 9PM Eastern that people were actually starting think to think that Trump could pull this off...

so those poll number you are stating just apply to a national level and don't take electoral votes into consideration?

In the two weeks leading up she was more heavily favored. Once the Comey letter came out she dropped like a stone. Sentiment shifted as being far less likely that she was shoe in but she was still favored.

 

[desura]

National polls were actually right about Clinton. But it was the electoral college that killed her.

Don think there is an electoral college in France.

 

[mect]

polls or not, most the country didn't think Trump had a snowball's chance in hell on Election Day...IIRC, most of the mainstream media predicted Hillary by over 80 electoral votes on the morning of the election...pretty sure these were based on polls of some sort...

Pretty hilarious to say the polls were accurate after the fact....

Interpretation: I don't understand scientific polling or margin of error, but something happened people weren't predicting, so the polls weren't accurate.

 

[dank69]

polls or not, most the country didn't think Trump had a snowball's chance in hell on Election Day...IIRC, most of the mainstream media predicted Hillary by over 80 electoral votes on the morning of the election...pretty sure these were based on polls of some sort...

Pretty hilarious to say the polls were accurate after the fact....

I asked about that post because the polls were accurate. The predictive models were not. @Sinsear was using the failure of the latter to pretend that the former were the problem, and thus claim that polls are useless and/or inaccurate.

 

[alcoholbob]

Europe was tearing itself apart long before Germany even existed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe

France left NATO for 46 years and it didn't start world war 3. Thinking France, leaving the EU, or even NATO, while landlocked by NATO members on all sides will is just hysteria.

 

[spacejamz]

Interpretation: I don't understand scientific polling or margin of error, but something happened people weren't predicting, so the polls weren't accurate.

pretty funny that were was no discussion of scientific polling or margin of error leading up to the presidential election, only that hillary was going to be our next president...

this is a just half assed way to make liberals feel better after getting their asses handed to them by trump, who by all rights shouldn't have even been there to begin with...

 

[repoman0]

pretty funny that were was no discussion of scientific polling or margin of error leading up to the presidential election, only that hillary was going to be our next president...

lol. Then you weren't paying attention.

 

[Pens1566]

pretty funny that were was no discussion of scientific polling or margin of error leading up to the presidential election, only that hillary was going to be our next president...

this is a just half assed way to make liberals feel better after getting their asses handed to them by trump, who by all rights shouldn't have even been there to begin with...

Jesus, where the fuck were you?

 

[Thump553]

Every poll said Trump had roughly a ten percent chance of winning. Just like the weather forecast, sometimes those 10% days turn out to be nightmares.

Hopefully France will reject their nutcase. It will be an odd world if French voters turn out to be more rational than their counterparts in Great Britain or the US. Then again, they were correct on GWB's war on Iraq also.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Le Pen just stepped down as party head to focus on Presidential bid.

 

[Commodus]

Le Pen just stepped down as party head to focus on Presidential bid.

This strikes me as a hockey team pulling its goalie when it's trailing by a few points. I appreciate your commitment, but this would only matter if you weren't far behind. What's this change in role going to do 12 days before the second round of the election? If Le Pen wanted to win... maybe she shouldn't have been so xenophobic? Just a thought.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

In a sense, it's not so much whether or not Le Pen loses as the potentially wide margin of loss that I'm interested in. France might just give her a not-so-subtle clue that she should go to hell.

20 points is not that large if you consider where she was at in previous elections. She's going to lose handily, but this will still be her best performance yet. Unless something happened where the FN had bazillions of dollars poured in from some rich donor unlikely to happen again, this still establishes her as the leading opposition to the French mainstream, and her party's general influence in the future.

 

[amenx]

Macron is well qualified. He was leader of the Strogg in Quake.