French national election is likely to reject Le Pen

[Triloby]

Hopefully France will reject their nutcase. It will be an odd world if French voters turn out to be more rational than their counterparts in Great Britain or the US. Then again, they were correct on GWB's war on Iraq also.

Chances are, the French kinda freaked out when they saw what was going in the US/UK with Trump/Brexit, and now they're having second thoughts about electing a far-right nationalist as their president. It also doesn't help that Le Pen's father has a very tarnished reputation within his own country (financial scandals and others), and that a fair amount of senior French voters refuse to vote for FN because of what her father did in the past. They don't see Marine as any different from her father.

 

[cytg111]

voter turnout was about 69.5 .. which is not good but not bad either.. she would have to rally them all AND flip some allready established voters.
Look out for some major event the coming two weeks. I am not suggesting collusion but more than one external force has something riding on her..

 

[Commodus]

voter turnout was about 69.5 .. which is not good but not bad either.. she would have to rally them all AND flip some allready established voters.
Look out for some major event the coming two weeks. I am not suggesting collusion but more than one external force has something riding on her..

If you're thinking of Russia, I'm not so sure it'll get involved (at least, not to the degree it was in the US). Part of why it interfered with the US election was because it knew there was a chance. The current results suggest that it really will be very hard for Le Pen to win, so that'd just mean pouring energy into a losing cause. As it stands, Le Pen's meeting with Putin either didn't help or even backfired by suggesting that, like Trump, she's just another stooge.

 

[cytg111]

If you're thinking of Russia, I'm not so sure it'll get involved (at least, not to the degree it was in the US). Part of why it interfered with the US election was because it knew there was a chance. The current results suggest that it really will be very hard for Le Pen to win, so that'd just mean pouring energy into a losing cause. As it stands, Le Pen's meeting with Putin either didn't help or even backfired by suggesting that, like Trump, she's just another stooge.

Actually I was thinking terror, ISIS and kin .. I think that Russia tried and mostly failed this bout around. I am looking forward to some details on the social media crackdown that has been happening since the trump event.

 

[Commodus]

Actually I was thinking terror, ISIS and kin .. I think that Russia tried and mostly failed this bout around. I am looking forward to some details on the social media crackdown that has been happening since the trump event.

Yeah, I hope they don't try anything in a bid to skew the election. Terrorist groups like ISIS actually love Islamophobe politicians, since they help justify the cause. "See, they really are out to destroy Islam..."

 

[Pens1566]

I'll be willing to bet there is another "terrorist" attack in France between now and the runoff.

 

[local]

ISIS types have the most to gain from her being elected. They obviously already have a presence in the country and I if I were in their shoes I would tell all my contacts to move now. Do anything and everything possible to try and get the people riled up enough to vote her in. Once she is in then she will do their work for them in antagonizing Muslims which would drive more to their side. So burn every single resource available. The people of France wouldn't know that all the assets were used up and would fear additional attacks were imminent. Also all those people rioting aren't doing anything to help their cause.

This is what I was referring to earlier when I said not to assume the results are locked in.

 

[Commodus]

Reviving this now that the second election round is underway.

Polls right before election day suggested that Macron was the heavy favorite. There was a hacking campaign against Macron right before the second round, but (unlike in the US) it doesn't look like this will have much of an effect on the results. "MacronLeaks" apparently mixes some decidedly fake material with the real kind, not much has actually come out of it... and more importantly, the French have seen the massive mistake the US made by electing Trump. Better to vote for a moderate who might be problematic than to elect the Russia-backed xenophobic nationalist who's guaranteed to cause problems.

The one concern is that abstention might work in Le Pen's favor, but we'll have to see.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

There was a hacking campaign against Macron right before the second round, but (unlike in the US) it doesn't look like this will have much of an effect on the results.

Just like the DNC case, it was a leak not a hack. Also just like the DNC leaks, the person most likely to have leaked the data is now dead.

"MacronLeaks" apparently mixes some decidedly fake material with the real kind, not much has actually come out of it... and more importantly, the French have seen the massive mistake the US made by electing Trump.

Absolutely nothing has been proven to be fake.

Better to vote for a moderate who might be problematic than to elect the Russia-backed xenophobic nationalist who's guaranteed to cause problems.

A vote for Macron is a vote to destroy France.

#ImWithHer

 

[Grooveriding]

The exit polls are showing Macron far ahead. Russia tried another hack, ironically the alt-right fanatics of the US were again the ones trying desperately to push the emails, much like they did in the US election.

Putin's cock firmly holstered in the alt-right's mouths as much as in Trump's.

 

[Commodus]

Just like the DNC case, it was a leak not a hack. Also just like the DNC leaks, the person most likely to have leaked the data is now dead.

Absolutely nothing has been proven to be fake.

A vote for Macron is a vote to destroy France.

#ImWithHer

Do you get tired of mindlessly parroting whatever Breitbart/InfoWars/Cernovich/etc. told you to think, or is it something you get used to when you do it often enough?

When Russia really, really wants a foreign country's candidate to win, that means there's a problem with that candidate's views. And Russia is really, really enthusiastic for Le Pen. Thankfully, she's likely to lose.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Do you get tired of mindlessly parroting whatever Breitbart/InfoWars/Cernovich told you to think, or is it something you get used to when you do it often enough?

Do you get tired of mindlessly parroting whatever CNN/NPR/SNL/Maddow told you to think, or is it something you get used to when you do it often enough?

When Russia really, really wants a foreign country's candidate to win, that means there's a problem with that candidate's views. And Russia is really, really enthusiastic for Le Pen. Thankfully, she's likely to lose.

 

[Commodus]

Do you get tired of mindlessly parroting whatever CNN/NPR/SNL/Maddow told you to think, or is it something you get used to when you do it often enough?

I knew you were just going to do a childish "I know what you are, but what am I?" reversal, because you don't actually have an argument to make. I'm not parroting anyone -- I'm using observable evidence and healthy skepticism when it comes to sources. You should try those sometime.

There are key differences between the US election and the French. For one thing, the election system itself is different. France's system leaves the final vote to two candidates -- you must vote for one or the other in the second round, so there's no third parties to dilute the vote. And when both the left-wing and moderate conservative parties are encouraging people to vote for Macron, it doesn't look good for Le Pen.

Also, Macron was well ahead in the final pre-election polls where Clinton wasn't nearly so fortunate. The leak/hack this time around came very late and, despite alt-right fantasies, doesn't appear to have enough real content to significantly skew the results. Certainly not while French laws prevent the media from writing things on election day that could influence the vote.

The kicker: I know that if Le Pen loses, you're going to come up with all kinds of bullshit excuses explaining how you were actually right all along, or how the win only came about through an eeeeeevil Deep State plot and not... you know, French just not wanting a far-right, pro-Russia bigot as their President.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

I'm not parroting anyone -- I'm using observable evidence and healthy skepticism when it comes to sources.

If your observable evidence comes from the mainstream propaganda outlets, then the "evidence" is questionable at best. As for the "healthy skepticism," I would call that confirmation bias.

And when both the left-wing and moderate conservative parties are encouraging people to vote for Macron, it doesn't look good for Le Pen.

Isn't that how Clint... er, Trump won? Almost all media was pro-Clinton and anti-Trump, which is a mirror of the French elections (mirror being that everyone is against the female candidate, including "feminists" and Antifa).

The kicker: I know that if Le Pen loses, you're going to come up with all kinds of bullshit excuses explaining how you were actually right all along, or how the win only came about through an eeeeeevil Deep State plot and not... you know, French just not wanting a far-right, pro-Russia bigot as their President.

And I know that if Le Pen wins, the lunatics are going to blame misogyny, racism, Hitler, bacon, dogs, etc. when the French just want the "peaceful jihad" to end so they can get back to a normal life. A Macron win means importing more "refugees" while existing "refugees" will get automatic citizenship. It also means more forced islamization of France and Europe, as his private position ("hacked" emails) prove.

 

[Grooveriding]

https://www.letemps.ch/monde/2017/05/07/emmanuel-macron-president

More coming in, still looks like Macron is going to be declared winner. The alt-right fanatics are suffering myopia. The marketplace for their unhinged ideology is smaller outside of the US.

Should have learned from Holland and now the lesson will be repeated in France. The right of the US may have been propagandized to the point a degenerate like Trump was able to become POTUS, not the case elsewhere.

Now with the strategy of Russia interfering in elections to destabilize nations by promoting the election wins of patsies being out in the open, it's going to be much harder to repeat the strategy. Other nations are not going to want to follow in the footsteps of the US and end up in the same position of having a Russian sympathizing government, and worse as in the US, potentially an unhinged incompetent like Trump.

 

[Commodus]

If your observable evidence comes from the mainstream propaganda outlets, then the "evidence" is questionable at best. As for the "healthy skepticism," I would call that confirmation bias.

It's observable evidence like the first-round voting results. Like the polls. Like what former candidates are saying. Like the way French government works. You know, facts.

Also, it's kind of cute how you claim that virtually the entire mainstream press is a "propaganda" outlet, but yet you're clearly flocking to hard-right sites that clearly have an agenda to push, reality be damned. It's good to be skeptical of any media outlet, but I'm not going to trust the likes of Breitbart or InfoWars (and individuals in their media circle) when they push demonstrably false stories and openly celebrate bigotry.

Isn't that how Clint... er, Trump won? Almost all media was pro-Clinton and anti-Trump, which is a mirror of the French elections (mirror being that everyone is against the female candidate, including "feminists" and Antifa).

Er... no, it's not how Trump won. It wasn't at all. The Green and Libertarian parties in the US didn't endorse either of the two main candidates.

Also, you don't understand how feminism works. It never means picking the woman candidate simply because she's a woman. She still has to win on her own merits. Feminism in politics means giving women a realistic chance at competing in the political arena, and promoting policies that support women's rights.

And I know that if Le Pen wins, the lunatics are going to blame misogyny, racism, Hitler, bacon, dogs, etc. when the French just want the "peaceful jihad" to end so they can get back to a normal life. A Macron win means importing more "refugees" while existing "refugees" will get automatic citizenship. It also means more forced islamization of France and Europe, as his private position ("hacked" emails) prove.

First, do you have any evidence supporting the "forced Islamization" claims? Has Macron even commented on the data at all, or have third-party experts combed over the data to verify its legitimacy? Can you cite your source?

And second, if Le Pen wins (which, as Grooveriding notes, seems increasingly unlikely), reasonable people will know that it's not as simple as blaming hatred. It's a significant factor, but it would also be a protest vote in rejection of Hollande's status quo, or because Le Pen tapped into some anxieties, or just because Macron wasn't very convincing. Again, this seems to be water under the bridge given early data handing a win to Macron... but keep it in mind.

 

[kage69]

Isn't macron the guy who married his teacher 20 yrs senior?

Why is that relevant?

Is the difference in age between Melania and Trump an issue for you?

 

[cytg111]

Vive la France ... 65/35

Eat it neonazi pus* ... hotdamn, Netherlands and now France. The people have spoken, we shall not get fcked .. Yessir, respect to the french.

 

[Commodus]

For those who want to see the projections giving Macron the win: here you go.

Hey, it turns out that basing election predictions on tangible evidence and sound logic tends to be much smarter than trusting in the wet dream fantasies of alt-right cheerleaders. Who knew?

 

[flexy]

The CRUSHING win of the very social-liberal Macron over the NAZI is yet another indication that Bernie could have had a chance in the US.

 

[FIVR]

"Macron Victory = Bernie Sanders was robbed"


Sincerely,
Bernie Bros

 

[theeedude]

The CRUSHING win of the very social-liberal Macron over the NAZI is yet another indication that Bernie could have had a chance in the US.

So why didn't he even win the primary?

 

[Grooveriding]

I think the fanatical alt-right, perhaps even a good amount of the more 'mainstream' right, are unaware elsewhere in the world being conservative politically is not in general about a focus on hating Muslims, being Christian, worrying about globalist conspiracies, abortion, who marries who, guns or obsessing on SJWs. You find more discourse on fiscal conservatism, economic policies, positions on the extent and scope of social programs etc. in other political landscapes. Hence the word conservative. Fox news propaganda victims, and that segments evolution into straight out fictional conspiracy sites likes Infowars does not represent such a large segment of the right's political discussion in other countries. Much of the US right seems poisoned from such propaganda and has fundamental issues even with basic reality at this point.

A positive effect of Trump: People elsewhere, right or left, will look at the Trump disaster and run away as fast as they can from a similar embarrassment and danger happening where they live. His loud and obnoxious example to the world stands as a warning not to make a similar fuck up.

 

[Jaskalas]

We have plenty of topics, plural, on the subject of the US elections. Let's keep this topic on France.

 

[Commodus]

We have plenty of topics, plural, on the subject of the US elections. Let's keep this topic on France.

I say discussion of the US is fair... within reason. Really, the takeaway is that countries like France and the Netherlands are not clones of the US that will give into xenophobia and ultra-nationalism, even if they've directly faced recent terrorist attacks. Their politics are more rational to start with, but yes, I wouldn't be surprised if they saw the mess that came with Trump's win and said "hell no, not here."

My question: what does Le Pen do after this? This wasn't just a defeat, it was a resounding defeat. The ideal answer is "she never runs for political office again," but then her father was particularly stubborn, too.