Florida polls show mass movement to McCain

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chess9

Elite member
Apr 15, 2000
7,748
0
0
Originally posted by: ehhhh
There's a heavy ex-military presence here in FL. Very few of those people will vote for Obama. Not too mention this is part of the Bible belt. I can't see Obama winning FL, though it may be close.

Yes, Florida will be close. Orlando and Miami will go for Obama. Tampa and Jax will go for McCain. If I had to guess, I'd give the nod to McCain.

This election is very close. I have no doubt that it's possible McCain can win. May the Fates help us if he does win....

-Robert
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
I wouldn't get excited about FL yet if you are a McCain supporter.

Let's take into consideration the one final fear that people had about FL not going blue. That is, the college students. We feared that their turn out would not be as high as needed. Apparently, that is quite the opposite.

On top of that, a good friend of mine witnessed the early voting lines yesterday in South Florida himself which were 3 hours long in the middle of a Wednesday! They were MASSIVE and support for Obama amongst them was tremendous.


Serenaded by their world famous marching band, almost a thousand students, faculty and administrators marched off the campus of Florida A&M University on Monday. It was not a protest march ? at the head of the line was the university?s president, James Ammons.

Forty-five minutes later, they decamped on the lawn of the Leon County Courthouse in Tallahassee. And they voted.

?I feel today is a very important day in history,? said Robert Jones of Orlando, a student at the historically black college. ?Hope to elect the first black president of the United States.?
Story continues below ?advertisement

Election Day isn?t until next month, but these Rattlers of FAMU have already cast their ballots in the presidential election. That?s because Florida opens it polling places and allows registered voters to do their civic duty well before Election Day.

Shortly after the FAMU contingent showed up, a second wave of student voters from Florida State University arrived en masse at the courthouse, a turnout that Ion Sancho, Leon County?s supervisor of elections, said was emblematic of overwhelming enthusiasm for early voting this year.

?Early voting is really going to set all-time records here in Leon County,? Sancho said. ?I would probably say across the state, they?re going to set records, as well.?

In fact, election experts predict that up to 40 percent of the electorate will vote early in Florida, one of 31 states that let registered voters show up early and vote without restriction. Three other states and the District of Columbia allow voters to cast their ballots in person ahead of time if they have an approved excuse for not being able to make it on Election Day.

Millions of votes in the bank
Thanks to aggressive voter registration efforts by both parties and fueled by younger voters? enthusiasm for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., election experts predict that a third of the electorate will already have voted by Nov. 4, up from 15 percent in 2000 and 20 percent in 2004.

The relatively recent phenomenon of early voting ? often categorized as ?in-person absentee voting,? as opposed to mail-in absentee balloting ? presents both opportunities and challenges for candidates and voters. And it means the familiar problems of faulty machines and frustrated voters are played out over weeks instead of hours.

By getting voters to the polls early, the campaigns of Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., can bank millions of votes and focus their energies on other segments of the electorate.

Obama, in particular, has made early voting a cornerstone of his strategy, holding giant ?Early Vote for Change? rallies urging Democrats to show up in advance. He has also blanketed Democrats and pastors in minority communities with ?vote early? e-mail messages and placed ads in the backgrounds of more than a dozen popular video games.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: ehhhh
There's a heavy ex-military presence here in FL. Very few of those people will vote for Obama. Not too mention this is part of the Bible belt. I can't see Obama winning FL, though it may be close.

Only the pan handle of FL is a part of the bible belt and it looks like Tallahassee has a strong chance of going blue which encompasses a very large amount of the pan handle's population.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
142
106
Do you create a new post every time a new poll is released? WTF is wrong with you? FL doesn't matter as long as Obama has double digit leads in VA, IA, and PA. But since you're so excited to read about new polling. From fivethirtyeight.com this morning:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama

New polling this morning from the Big Ten polling consortium and Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.

The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois.

Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.


The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us less about the individual states and more about where the particular pollsters are calibrating the horse race. The numbers you see in our current state-by-state projections assume that Obama will ultimately prevail on election day by about 5 points. But what if Obama were to win by 10 or more points instead, where several pollsters now have the race? You'd probably see results which look something like these.

So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier -- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a best-case scenario also.

With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting. Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not been particularly favorable to Obama.
Comment on the bolded. FOURTEEN AND TWELVE POINTS IN OHIO. FIVE IN FLORIDA. Both from respectable polls.
 

chess9

Elite member
Apr 15, 2000
7,748
0
0
Are young people voting in large numbers this election? Has anyone seen any reports on those figures? With so much early voting, I'm surprised I haven't seen a report on young people's voting.

Without the votes of the younger generation, Obama is doomed. You guys must vote.

Except you Republican young guys. ;) j/k

-Robert
 

hellokeith

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2004
1,665
0
0
Originally posted by: chess9
Are young people voting in large numbers this election? Has anyone seen any reports on those figures? With so much early voting, I'm surprised I haven't seen a report on young people's voting.

Without the votes of the younger generation, Obama is doomed. You guys must vote.

Except you Republican young guys. ;) j/k

-Robert

This is a fundamental point.

My suggestion to Obama would be to take 10% of that stack of money he has and spend it on free taxi rides + free catering to get young people to actually get up out of bed, put down the bong, logoff of WoW, and go vote on voting day.

The youth vote has historically been a complete failure for Democrats. It doesn't matter how many people you get to rallies, or how many people (real or otherwise) you get to register. You have to get people to the booths on voting day. If the Dems take for granted the laziness of youth yet again, it will be their own fault for losing.
 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,914
3
0
Obama ran the table today with the exceptions of Kansas, West Virginia, and Texas. And there were a hell of a lot of polls out today.
 

Rustler

Golden Member
Jan 14, 2004
1,253
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"Democratic Rep. John Murtha leads retired Army Lt. Col. William Russell by a little more than 4 percentage points, within the Susquehanna Poll's 4.9-point margin of error. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted for the Tribune-Review on Tuesday, amid uproar over Murtha's statement that some of his constituents are racist."

LOL thats it............if you dont vote for Obama your a racist.........LOL



You will do as you are told, until the rights to you are sold....................


Penn is tighening up beacause of Democratic stupidity..........this ain't the 60's people...................
 

chess9

Elite member
Apr 15, 2000
7,748
0
0
Originally posted by: hellokeith
Originally posted by: chess9
Are young people voting in large numbers this election? Has anyone seen any reports on those figures? With so much early voting, I'm surprised I haven't seen a report on young people's voting.

Without the votes of the younger generation, Obama is doomed. You guys must vote.

Except you Republican young guys. ;) j/k

-Robert

This is a fundamental point.

My suggestion to Obama would be to take 10% of that stack of money he has and spend it on free taxi rides + free catering to get young people to actually get up out of bed, put down the bong, logoff of WoW, and go vote on voting day.

The youth vote has historically been a complete failure for Democrats. It doesn't matter how many people you get to rallies, or how many people (real or otherwise) you get to register. You have to get people to the booths on voting day. If the Dems take for granted the laziness of youth yet again, it will be their own fault for losing.

Yes, buy them pizza or beer or something AFTER they vote. :) If that's legal. It would probably be very controversial. Anything LEGAL to get them to vote.

-Robert