Florida polls show mass movement to McCain

[techs]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-418.html

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 McCain +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 10/16 - 10/16 McCain +2


Yep,if you look at the graph at the link you can see the huge movement towards McCain.
And anyone else noticing that as Florida and Ohio have been showing movement towards McCain that all the Democrats want to talk about is the national polls and ignore the electoral college?

Clearly, if you look at some of the national polls they show Obama ahead. But a candidate can win the electoral college with if he only loses the national by 4 points (51-47 with no third party)
So, if Florida is really going to McCain based on the recent polls, and if Ohio is really not looking great according to every Democratic spokesman I see on tv and the poll, you have to say this:

Given Florida and Ohio go for McCain, then Obama must get 16 electoral votes from Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. And that may be were the whole election is decided.
See map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.../maps/obama_vs_mccain/

I am now seeing an exceedingly tight race. And none of this addresses the great unknown in this race. Which, is race.

Are Democrats suffering from mass delusion? At this point, I'd say Obama has a slight advantage.

But the race factor and the Republican vote suppression efforts documented in the link below lead me to believe its a complete toss up.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2240134&enterthread=y

btw any one remember Reagan/Bush were down 7 points with three weeks to go? And they beat Carter/Mondale 489-49 in the electoral college?

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

you need to stop creating threads

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
you need to stop creating threads

thanks for the bump.

 

[Farang]

Florida and Ohio are not important at this point. Obama's firewalls are Virginia and Pennsylvania. New Mexico and Iowa are more or less irrelevant in this race as they appear in the bag for Obama and have consistently.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Farang
Florida and Ohio are not important at this point. Obama's firewalls are Virginia and Pennsylvania. New Mexico and Iowa are more or less irrelevant in this race as they appear in the bag for Obama and have consistently.

Uh oh! Don't forget I am for Obama. But this is the first documented use of the word "firewall" in regards to Obama.
I clearly don't like the sound of that.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Farang
Florida and Ohio are not important at this point. Obama's firewalls are Virginia and Pennsylvania. New Mexico and Iowa are more or less irrelevant in this race as they appear in the bag for Obama and have consistently.

Uh oh! Don't forget I am for Obama. But this is the first documented use of the word "firewall" in regards to Obama.
I clearly don't like the sound of that.

Ha.. well let's just say states that if Obama wins, the race is over. I guess firewall was used in the primaries for the candidate who was on the defense.

I think you're getting worked up over the wrong states. If you see movement in PA or VA, be worried. If not, don't be.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Farang
Florida and Ohio are not important at this point. Obama's firewalls are Virginia and Pennsylvania. New Mexico and Iowa are more or less irrelevant in this race as they appear in the bag for Obama and have consistently.

Uh oh! Don't forget I am for Obama. But this is the first documented use of the word "firewall" in regards to Obama.
I clearly don't like the sound of that.

Ha.. well let's just say states that if Obama wins, the race is over. I guess firewall was used in the primaries for the candidate who was on the defense.

I think you're getting worked up over the wrong states. If you see movement in PA or VA, be worried. If not, don't be.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politi...1022/pl_politico/14830

There?s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,? says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. ?In the governor?s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.?

Even top Democrats concede that McCain?s deficit in the polls ? 11 percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average ? isn?t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell had sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Uh Oh!

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Look we have a word for people like you who flip out at every negative poll number that crosses your path, concern troll. Honestly, this forum does not need you recreating thread topics that already exist daily.

The bottom line is Obama doesn't need Florida at all. He doesn't even need Ohio. Those are both the cherry on top for him. He has a firewall in the Southwest with CO, NM, and even NV looking like sure pickups. He gets CO+NM or CO+NV and it's all over unless McCain can steal PA where he is currently down double digits. I haven't even mentioned Virginia either, where Obama also has a double digit lead thanks to McCain's idiot advisor saying the real VA is Southern VA and not Northern VA.

What we are arguing about now is by how big a landslide Obama will win, not IF he will win. I further do not believe the momentum of Powell's endorsement has been reflected in the polls, I expect to see Obama solidify his lead in nearly every battleground state by next week.

 

[mshan]

Hypotheticals, using 2004 as baseline, melding with census data, and projecting what if scenarios: http://www.burntorangereport.c...wDiary.do?diaryId=5780

(did not take any lingering Hillary effects into account, though).

Pollster.com's lump all of the polls together approach seems to me to be closer to the truth in Florida: http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/08-fl-pres-ge-mvo.php

 

[Double Trouble]

techs, I've told you in other similar threads. I know you want to make sure the democrats don't get complacent etc by trying to hype the possibility of McCain winning -- the reality is that it is virtually impossible, and no "closing of the gap" is going to make a difference in the electoral map. There's a fat lady warming up on the side of the stage.....

 

[NoStateofMind]

Oh noes! Not Florida again!!!!

 

[First]

Stop posting.

 

[dmcowen674]

It's not just Florida

AP as well as others are looking like my MAP.

McCain still wins this.

10-22-2008 AP poll McCain pulls even

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now leads by 20 points

Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead

Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Oh noes! Not Florida again!!!!

I know you meant it as a joke...

Would it surprise you if the same thing happened once again?

I'd laugh but my reinforcements are based on Obama winning.

 

[Dr. Zaus]

Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Oh noes! Not Florida again!!!!

I know you meant it as a joke...

Would it surprise you if the same thing happened once again?

I'd laugh but my reinforcements are based on Obama winning.

Virginia, Florida, Ohio, all the other 'toss up' states would all have to go McCain and then either Colorado or New Mexico would have to swing out of 'Leaning Obama' to go McCain for McCain to have a chance at the presidency.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's not just Florida

AP as well as others are looking like my MAP.

McCain still wins this.

10-22-2008 AP poll McCain pulls even

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now leads by 20 points

Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead

Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.

chuh chuh chuh.. chuh chuh chuh.. chuh chuh chuh cherry pickin

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200...m/us_usa_politics_poll

weeeeeeeeeeeeeee it's fun!

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Originally posted by: DixyCrat

Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Oh noes! Not Florida again!!!!

I know you meant it as a joke...

Would it surprise you if the same thing happened once again?

I'd laugh but my reinforcements are based on Obama winning.

Virginia, Florida, Ohio, all the other 'toss up' states would all have to go McCain and then either Colorado or New Mexico would have to swing out of 'Leaning Obama' to go McCain for McCain to have a change at the presidency.

This suddenly souns a shitload worse than it did just a week ago.


People are going to vote for McCain?

 

[Eeezee]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

This is where you should be going for your polling coverage. This guy has run thousands of simulations and uses real statistics (oh-ho!) to determine the probabilities. In other words, he is taking the polls, weighting them properly, running monte carlo simulations with various factors, and publishes his results.

Considering the sheer amount of data he has gone through, I trust him more than anyone else. More data = better statistics = better chance of being correct.

Right now, he gives Obama a 33% chance of a landslide victory
66% chance of winning if he loses OH/FL
90% chance of winning the popular + electoral vote (only 3.7% of winning popular and losing electoral)

Yeah, McCain can still win, but it's unlikely.

 

[Skyclad1uhm1]

Well, McCain has Al Qaida behind him now, so depending on how many Al Qaida members there are in the US and how many of them can vote... He may still get a chance at finishing what Bush started: the destruction of the US.

 

[Skyclad1uhm1]

Oh, and the 7-eleven poll shows Obama as winner still. And that has been spot on the previous elections too.

 

[sportage]

I'm ignoring Florida polls.
I have a lot of republican friends and relatives down thar
and most of them are reluctantly going with Obama simply
because "they are sick of all this hate and racial crap" from their
own party.
Not my words, theirs.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield

Originally posted by: DixyCrat

Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Oh noes! Not Florida again!!!!

I know you meant it as a joke...

Would it surprise you if the same thing happened once again?

I'd laugh but my reinforcements are based on Obama winning.

Virginia, Florida, Ohio, all the other 'toss up' states would all have to go McCain and then either Colorado or New Mexico would have to swing out of 'Leaning Obama' to go McCain for McCain to have a change at the presidency.

This suddenly souns a shitload worse than it did just a week ago.


People are going to vote for McCain?

I still wrestle with this reality, too.

Anyway, safe money is still on Obama.

 

[Lemon law]

Even if you toss an equal probability coin a thousand times, its extremely unlikely that you will ever get a 500, 500 split. So the same pollster could run the same poll. in the same location, using the same selection methods, and get two quite different results. And that is where the Eeezee point comes in. But sitting 12 days from election, external events could also change things dramatically, just as the economic meltdown hurt the hell out of McCain. And not factored into any poll is the near certainty that Obama will bury McCain in campaign adds in the last week or so.

 

[ehhhh]

There's a heavy ex-military presence here in FL. Very few of those people will vote for Obama. Not too mention this is part of the Bible belt. I can't see Obama winning FL, though it may be close.

 

[Skitzer]

I think Obamas "firewall" PA will be won by McCain thanks to Murtha. Damn those gun toting redneck bible thumpers!