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Final Zogby Prediction

V

Veramocor

Senior member
Final 5Pm Zogby election call:

Electroral votes

Bush: 213
Kerry:311 heaven

Popular Vote:

Bush: 49.4%
Kerry: 49.1%

MOE: 3.2%


The Iron Triangle, win all 3 the election is yours:

Florida .1% trending Kerry

Ohio 2% Bush but trending Kerry

Pennsylvania Trending Kerry

 
So give the Bush camp a taste of their own medicine? I approve, but I think the popular vote will go kerry's way too.
 
That would be POETIC JUSTICE, but it ain't gonna happen with these numbers unless the Western state Dems don't vote in big numbers in states like Texas, Ok. and California.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: Tylanner
Originally posted by: Veramocor
Final 5Pm Zogby election call:

Electroral votes

Bush: 213
Kerry:311 heaven

Popular Vote:

Bush: 49.4%
Kerry: 49.1%

MOE: 3.2%
Click to expand...

Bush: 49.4%

🙁
Click to expand...


With such a large margin of error isn't such a small difference meaningless in terms of the popular vote?
 
:light: I may have to claim credit for being the first on P&N to suggest Bush loses with the high popular vote some 3 weeks ago 😉
 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
:light: I may have to claim credit for being the first on P&N to suggest Bush loses with the high popular vote some 3 weeks ago 😉
Click to expand...

Link? Did you merely suggest the possibility or did you really call it? You're not the first person to think about the possibility.
 
It wont be that lopsided.

Zogby has kerry up more than most other polls, every swing state besides MN infact, where they have a tie.
 
The only way for the electoral vote to go bye bye is for two groups the Dems and Repubs to be burned by it 2 elections in a row.
 
haha.. it would be funny to have another situation where Kerry wins by electoral college and loses the popular vote. KARMA!
 
Originally posted by: Veramocor
The only way for the electoral vote to go bye bye is for two groups the Dems and Repubs to be burned by it 2 elections in a row.
Click to expand...
Why does it need to go bye bye? It works as intended.

 
Still too early to call.

Zogby is calling States like

Ohio

Florida

NH

PA

and Iowa to be won by Kerry :shocked:


Can imagine CAD's reaction if Iowa goes Kerry. I don't see Iowa going Kerry.

Based on 2000 and early voting don't see how NH swings around from Bush to Kerry either.

What about Hawaii?? They show it as Blue but I thought it was close?

It's all up to Ohio , FL and PA

Anyway looks encouraging if number does come out close to the 311 to 213 spread for a Kerry win without having the USSC decide then. That would suck because they would put Bush back in for sure.

http://www.zogby.com/
 
I don't buy this popular vote thing. It's clear that the republicans have suppressed a great amount of votes so they would have to win the popular vote by like 75% to even be considered close
 
Originally posted by: chess9
That would be POETIC JUSTICE, but it ain't gonna happen with these numbers unless the Western state Dems don't vote in big numbers in states like Texas, Ok. and California.

-Robert
Click to expand...

I voted Kerry in CA just to up widen the popular vote margin.
 
Originally posted by: qarlandZ
Originally posted by: chess9
That would be POETIC JUSTICE, but it ain't gonna happen with these numbers unless the Western state Dems don't vote in big numbers in states like Texas, Ok. and California.

-Robert
Click to expand...

I voted Kerry in CA just to up widen the popular vote margin.
Click to expand...

We're getting carried away with the popular vote stuff and electoral college... Zogby has it super close and the margin of error is 3%.
 
Originally posted by: TranceNation
I don't buy this popular vote thing. It's clear that the republicans have suppressed a great amount of votes so they would have to win the popular vote by like 75% to even be considered close
Click to expand...

What proof do you have of vote suppression by the GOP? I'd like to see more proof on this.

 
Originally posted by: Tiles2Tech
Originally posted by: TranceNation
I don't buy this popular vote thing. It's clear that the republicans have suppressed a great amount of votes so they would have to win the popular vote by like 75% to even be considered close
Click to expand...

What proof do you have of vote suppression by the GOP? I'd like to see more proof on this.
Click to expand...

oh the proof is in the same folder that details how Iraq has WMD
 
TranceNation :cookie:


I could easily see NH going Kerry... his operatives flooded it and had a serious door-to-door campaign.
 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
TranceNation :cookie:


I could easily see NH going Kerry... his operatives flooded it and had a serious door-to-door campaign.
Click to expand...
That's what this is coming down to...Get Out The Vote!


It's good for America!
 
the problem with 49.4% is daddy's 5-4 supreme court will pull a reversal and declare fore president for the past 4 years and bush would get the next 4 year. likewise gore would get the retroactive blame for iraq and shrub would get a new start
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674

and Iowa to be won by Kerry :shocked:


Can imagine CAD's reaction if Iowa goes Kerry. I don't see Iowa going Kerry.
Click to expand...
Iowa is going to Kerry. They have been hitting college students, who tend to swing democrat 2:1 IIRC, up to vote really hard here. Since they tend to ignore first time voters in the polls, and we are going to get record numbers of them, and they tend to swing for Kerry, I think the race in Iowa isn't as close as the Republicans would like to think.
 
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