- Jul 25, 2002
- 10,053
- 0
- 71
The 'WHO, the 'WHERE' & the 'WHY'
It's the Stupid, Stupid.
(Or so it seems)
USA TODAY
When President Bush delivers his State of the Union address Wednesday, he'll survey a Capitol Hill landscape that reflects the heartland he won on Election Day.
He says his victory vindicates his decision to go to war with Iraq and gives him a mandate for his domestic plans, topped by transforming part of Social Security into private or personal investment accounts.
But that's not what drew voters to Bush in four counties that tipped Republican last year. In dozens of interviews with voters in Florida, Michigan, Missouri and New Jersey, no Bush voter mentioned Social Security. Many who cited Iraq as their reason for supporting him also said they oppose the war or have concerns about his conduct of it.
Still, across the nation, the shift was striking: 153 counties that voted Democratic for president in 1996 and 2000 chose Bush in 2004; only 11 chose Democrat John Kerry after voting Republican in 1996 and 2000.
Why the surge to Bush? What does it mean for his second-term plans and Republicans who would like to succeed him? Are these four counties ? each next to a county that switched to the GOP four years earlier ? evidence of spreading Republican dominance?
As Bush lays out an ambitious agenda, here are five reasons he won, and what people say about why they voted to re-elect him.
1. A wartime president
Voters were drawn to Bush by memories of the 9/11 attacks and a reluctance to change leaders in the midst of war. They won't have that option in 2008, when Bush can't run again. But the craving for continuity helped him this time among swing voters and in areas with new voters.
2. Who was tough enough?
Democrats were damaged by the perception that the party and its nominees are weak on national security. Years of attempts to counter that image, including the nomination of Vietnam vet and Iraq-war supporter Kerry, did not persuade apprehensive voters. The ads by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacking Kerry took a toll.
3. Values mattered
Values led some voters to Bush. This bloc was reinforced by ballot initiatives in some states to ban same-sex marriage and restrict abortion, and by the perception that the urban, liberal Kerry might restrict gun-owner rights.
4. 'The move-in people'
Republicans benefited from demographic shifts. These included an influx of 20,000 Hispanics to Osceola County since 2000 and migration of white-collar health and insurance industry workers to Boone County, home of the University of Missouri's flagship campus. In both cases, the newcomers have helped make onetime Democratic strongholds competitive. Schnarre calls them "the move-in people."
. Nuts and bolts
Republicans out-campaigned Democrats. They built better grass-roots organizations, aggressively courted newcomers and sold their candidate to voters with a smart message. Democrats fell short despite Herculean efforts in Boone and some other counties.
It's the Stupid, Stupid.
(Or so it seems)
USA TODAY
When President Bush delivers his State of the Union address Wednesday, he'll survey a Capitol Hill landscape that reflects the heartland he won on Election Day.
He says his victory vindicates his decision to go to war with Iraq and gives him a mandate for his domestic plans, topped by transforming part of Social Security into private or personal investment accounts.
But that's not what drew voters to Bush in four counties that tipped Republican last year. In dozens of interviews with voters in Florida, Michigan, Missouri and New Jersey, no Bush voter mentioned Social Security. Many who cited Iraq as their reason for supporting him also said they oppose the war or have concerns about his conduct of it.
Still, across the nation, the shift was striking: 153 counties that voted Democratic for president in 1996 and 2000 chose Bush in 2004; only 11 chose Democrat John Kerry after voting Republican in 1996 and 2000.
Why the surge to Bush? What does it mean for his second-term plans and Republicans who would like to succeed him? Are these four counties ? each next to a county that switched to the GOP four years earlier ? evidence of spreading Republican dominance?
As Bush lays out an ambitious agenda, here are five reasons he won, and what people say about why they voted to re-elect him.
1. A wartime president
Voters were drawn to Bush by memories of the 9/11 attacks and a reluctance to change leaders in the midst of war. They won't have that option in 2008, when Bush can't run again. But the craving for continuity helped him this time among swing voters and in areas with new voters.
2. Who was tough enough?
Democrats were damaged by the perception that the party and its nominees are weak on national security. Years of attempts to counter that image, including the nomination of Vietnam vet and Iraq-war supporter Kerry, did not persuade apprehensive voters. The ads by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacking Kerry took a toll.
3. Values mattered
Values led some voters to Bush. This bloc was reinforced by ballot initiatives in some states to ban same-sex marriage and restrict abortion, and by the perception that the urban, liberal Kerry might restrict gun-owner rights.
4. 'The move-in people'
Republicans benefited from demographic shifts. These included an influx of 20,000 Hispanics to Osceola County since 2000 and migration of white-collar health and insurance industry workers to Boone County, home of the University of Missouri's flagship campus. In both cases, the newcomers have helped make onetime Democratic strongholds competitive. Schnarre calls them "the move-in people."
. Nuts and bolts
Republicans out-campaigned Democrats. They built better grass-roots organizations, aggressively courted newcomers and sold their candidate to voters with a smart message. Democrats fell short despite Herculean efforts in Boone and some other counties.