Fermi/GT300 A2 tapeout

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GaiaHunter

Diamond Member
Jul 13, 2008
3,697
397
126
am i the only one happy to see ATI kicking ass? somehow i doubt it...

Well it is good for us consumers that the market share gets more balanced between both companies.

On the other hand, TSMC problems is slowing AMD down.

And then I hope NVIDIA release at least a solid GPU to keep prices at decent levels.
 

v8envy

Platinum Member
Sep 7, 2002
2,720
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This is terrible news for enthusiasts on many levels. Anyone who hasn't bought *any* card faster than a 260/4870 from either team is going to be paying more (possibly a LOT more) for one until March of next year. Possibly later. Should help AMD get back in the black though.

Best forget recommending 5850/5870s, they're going to be rarer than hen's teeth and unavailable to anyone not willing to pay a premium over MSRP. It's the video card drought of 2004 all over again.

Cancelling GT200 leaves NV with nothing but G92 rebadges going into this holiday season and beyond. Their board partners are well and truly screwed for product until they can start ramping Fermi boards approaching Q2 of 2010. I already predicted the likes of EVGA might have a rough time subsisting exclusively on budget and extreme budget SKUs come Q1 of next year. Let's see what happens.

Sucks to be them and sucks to be us.
 

yh125d

Diamond Member
Dec 23, 2006
6,886
0
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Best forget recommending 5850/5870s, they're going to be rarer than hen's teeth and unavailable to anyone not willing to pay a premium over MSRP. It's the video card drought of 2004 all over again.

What? Availability has nowhere to go but up, as yields improve and initial demand slows down
 

v8envy

Platinum Member
Sep 7, 2002
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Initial demand slowing down is what's not going to happen until early next year. We're going into the holiday shopping season with only one vendor with a viable high end SKU. The other is just bleating helplessly about PhysX and EOLing everything higher than a 250GT.

With 40nm yield problems ATI can't possibly satisfy all of high end GPU demand any time soon. So, expect premiums.
 

exar333

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2004
8,518
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What? Availability has nowhere to go but up, as yields improve and initial demand slows down

Your kidding right? The initial supply was likely due to ATI having these made for a period of time before launch, stockpiling them, and then releasing them. With problems at TSMC on 40nm, this will not get better until the problems are resolved. The whole 40nm production history has been problematic this year, and ATI "lucked out" by already having their product released before this latest issue. NV might be delayed, but it appears a drought is likely for ATI in the interim.

I remember the drought of 2004, and I ended-up paying WAY too much for a X800XT at the time (PCIE). I much prefer the last year of graphics sales where you could get a great deal on a 4870/4890 or GTX260 for ~$150-200.
 

Kuzi

Senior member
Sep 16, 2007
572
0
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NV made a decision to produce a large and complex GPU on a new and relatively immature process, so it's not that surprising to see Fermi coming a few months late to the party.

ATI can capitalize on this and improve their sales and margins this quarter, but only if TSMC can produce enough high end GPU's for them.
 

Tempered81

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2007
6,374
1
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NV made a decision to produce a large and complex GPU on a new and relatively immature process, so it's not that surprising to see Fermi coming a few months late to the party.

ATI can capitalize on this and improve their sales and margins this quarter, but only if TSMC can produce enough high end GPU's for them.

Yes I'm wondering how many high-end HD5000 series cards could be sold if the fab's had significant stock. As it stands currently, 5850 and 5870 sell out as soon as they're in stock.
 

Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,712
978
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It seems a bit dubious to generalize that TSMC is having loads of 40nm trouble yet ATI has a fair amount of cards out there. Sure yields could most likely be better, but I wonder if nVidia's late arrival to the party with buggy, over complicated design/masks could be skewing the statistics?
 

yacoub

Golden Member
May 24, 2005
1,991
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If the higher costs are passed on to consumers this will delay DX11 adoption by many. So it's up to them. They can lower prices and increase adoption rates or they can keep prices high (or make them higher) and see less sales. Meh.
 

v8envy

Platinum Member
Sep 7, 2002
2,720
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I don't know if you can state ATI has a "fair" amount of cards out there. The 58xx SKUs sell out as soon as they pop up at etailers.

As far as skewing statistics -- the only NV parts to skew the numbers are the 210/220/240 low end GPUs which are tiny and should in theory have relatively good yields.

I think it's fair to say Fermi is not in production. Sample Fermi volume should not heavily impact a "40%" overall yield as much as high volume, in-production and in-demand ATI GPUs.
 

T2k

Golden Member
Feb 24, 2004
1,665
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It is obviously not in production - it is scheduled to go so in December hence my long-standing prediction of a January-February shipping date.

As for ATI if they have contracted TSMC for X amount of production they are getting it, period and if TSMC is indeed the one who's having problem engineers will probably focus on production yields, not pilot runs...
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
It seems a bit dubious to generalize that TSMC is having loads of 40nm trouble yet ATI has a fair amount of cards out there. Sure yields could most likely be better, but I wonder if nVidia's late arrival to the party with buggy, over complicated design/masks could be skewing the statistics?

The kind of yield issues TSMC is now experiencing with their 40nm line are typical of production volume scaling...as you add new tools to the line to make it "wider" you end up with a mathematical permutation of the number of combinations of toolsets that can end up being used for any given lot (minimum group of wafers that travel thru the fab)...do to intrinsic tool-to-tool variations the same two tool models designed to do the same thing to a wafer will have a slight mismatch in the output...after multiple wafer passes thru the tools the end result can be serious yield loss.

Every fab and every company faces this issue when scaling up the production volume of a process technology. TSMC being at the leading edge in a very visible fashion like this is the only reason we are hearing of their trials and tribulations in the public domain.

At any rate, this kind of yield hit does impact AMD as the temporary solution (called "band-aids" in fab-speak) is to restrict the toolsets allowed for production on any given lot, which then increases CT (cycle-time) for the WIP (work-in-progress) in the fab and any increase in CT means an increase in defect-density which means a further reduction in yield.

In short this sort of thing is never good for anyone.

It is obviously not in production - it is scheduled to go so in December hence my long-standing prediction of a January-February shipping date.

As for ATI if they have contracted TSMC for X amount of production they are getting it, period and if TSMC is indeed the one who's having problem engineers will probably focus on production yields, not pilot runs...

Those are two functions that are already serviced by two discrete sets of resources (both budgetary and headcount)...they operate in parallel and aren't really amenable to being reallocated on the fly to assist the crisis that might be going on in the other team's module. (regarding production yield versus pilot runs)

Only in the most extreme of situations - a fab shutdown - do the production yield team's decisions impact the ongoing day-to-day workings of the pilot run team, and even in that case it doesn't really change the focus of the pilot team as much as it puts them and their efforts on hold (and generates much much much angst to the customer side of the business development equation) while the yield team scurries about in 24/7 crisis mode until the fab hold is lifted.

I've seen this happen twice, once in Houston and once in Singapore and both times it was actually a contamination issue (meaning device reliability is compromised, not so much a yield issue as we define yields) that made things go that awry.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
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Your kidding right? The initial supply was likely due to ATI having these made for a period of time before launch, stockpiling them, and then releasing them. With problems at TSMC on 40nm, this will not get better until the problems are resolved. The whole 40nm production history has been problematic this year, and ATI "lucked out" by already having their product released before this latest issue. NV might be delayed, but it appears a drought is likely for ATI in the interim.

I remember the drought of 2004, and I ended-up paying WAY too much for a X800XT at the time (PCIE). I much prefer the last year of graphics sales where you could get a great deal on a 4870/4890 or GTX260 for ~$150-200.

I would like to know what you paid for that card??? I bought 20x800xtpe of had them way befor all others. Price $299.
 
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Sylvanas

Diamond Member
Jan 20, 2004
3,752
0
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Your kidding right? The initial supply was likely due to ATI having these made for a period of time before launch, stockpiling them, and then releasing them. With problems at TSMC on 40nm, this will not get better until the problems are resolved. The whole 40nm production history has been problematic this year, and ATI "lucked out" by already having their product released before this latest issue. NV might be delayed, but it appears a drought is likely for ATI in the interim.

I remember the drought of 2004, and I ended-up paying WAY too much for a X800XT at the time (PCIE). I much prefer the last year of graphics sales where you could get a great deal on a 4870/4890 or GTX260 for ~$150-200.

The yeilds of 40nm has improved markedly since the first rumours of problems at TSMC started floating around- this has been said in many 5870 reviews. The problem with 5 series ATI cards and availability was that Dell took 90% of the Stock before launch so what we have now are the remnants of that decision. As time moves on towards christmas I'd expect much wider availability as production ramps up to meet the demmand.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
The yeilds of 40nm has improved markedly since the first rumours of problems at TSMC started floating around- this has been said in many 5870 reviews. The problem with 5 series ATI cards and availability was that Dell took 90% of the Stock before launch so what we have now are the remnants of that decision. As time moves on towards christmas I'd expect much wider availability as production ramps up to meet the demmand.

The yields had improved markedly...they are now back down to the 40% range again (about 2/3 what they were before) due to chamber mismatch issues created by releasing new tools to the 40nm production as part of their standard volume ramp efforts. (60% yield on 1000wspm is great, but keeping that 60% yield while increasing production capacity to 5000wspm and 20,000 wspm is the next challenge, which TSMC has fallen down on)
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
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Bottom line R3oo was $299. The Xt800pe was $299. These were top end cards . Years latter when the process is smaller cheaper cards still cost the same or more . I think NV and ATI need to be probed real hard for price fixing. R300 at 299 shouls have cost more to produce than the 5870 fact. Chech cpu pricies check memory pricies . Check all pricies the only ones that are higher today than befor are GPU's .

No this is price fixing . Proof is in all other hardware being sold. GPUs way overpriced . Top of line should be max 199. If R300 made money at 130node. The 5870 at 40nm should be way cheaper . PRICE FIXING.
 
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jiffylube1024

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2002
7,430
0
71
Nemesis - the X800XT PE was 281mm² on a much more problem-free 130nm node. The 58xx cards are 338 mm² and Fermi is pushing 500+ mm² on a still somewhat immature 40nm node.

I agree that the past generation of cards, with $300-600 prices are excessive, but $250 and $380 seem like reasonable prices for the 5850 and 5870 made on a shaky 40nm node.

God only knows what Fermi will cost when it first comes out!
 

Fox5

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2005
5,957
7
81
Bottom line R3oo was $299. The Xt800pe was $299. These were top end cards . Years latter when the process is smaller cheaper cards still cost the same or more . I think NV and ATI need to be probed real hard for price fixing. R300 at 299 shouls have cost more to produce than the 5870 fact. Chech cpu pricies check memory pricies . Check all pricies the only ones that are higher today than befor are GPU's .

No this is price fixing . Proof is in all other hardware being sold. GPUs way overpriced . Top of line should be max 199. If R300 made money at 130node. The 5870 at 40nm should be way cheaper . PRICE FIXING.

R300 was $399 when it came out (not sure what xt800pe was). And it was also $399 under a much stronger economy, with how much the dollar has fallen, a $600 video card isn't unreasonable.
 

evolucion8

Platinum Member
Jun 17, 2005
2,867
3
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I would like to know what you paid for that card??? I bought 20x800xtpe of had them way befor all others. Price $299.

20 Radeon X800XT PE?? [shocked]

I bought mine 3 months later of its debut in the now defunct Monarch Computer and it cost me $470, I will never pay again such amount of money for a videocard.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
Bottom line R3oo was $299. The Xt800pe was $299. These were top end cards . Years latter when the process is smaller cheaper cards still cost the same or more . I think NV and ATI need to be probed real hard for price fixing. R300 at 299 shouls have cost more to produce than the 5870 fact. Chech cpu pricies check memory pricies . Check all pricies the only ones that are higher today than befor are GPU's .

No this is price fixing . Proof is in all other hardware being sold. GPUs way overpriced . Top of line should be max 199. If R300 made money at 130node. The 5870 at 40nm should be way cheaper . PRICE FIXING.

Oh yeah, these dudes in the graphics biz are totally price-fixing.

It is WAAAAAAY obvious just by looking at their stratospheric 30% gross margins and essentially zero-profit bottom-lines going back for about 2 yrs now.

Yep, all the red flags are there all right. :rolleyes:
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
R300 was $399 when it came out (not sure what xt800pe was). And it was also $399 under a much stronger economy, with how much the dollar has fallen, a $600 video card isn't unreasonable.

I bought right when released I paid $299 and said good bye to nv forever. Wife is looking for receit . I will post it . $299.
 
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Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
All red flags are inplace IDC. CPUs got cheaper while doubling transistor count every 2 years. Same with memory and most all hardware with exception of GPUs. Could it be that OUR GPUs pretty much suck from the beginning upto now . I think so. Crysis is perfect example just how weak these GPUs really are . Yep they were better than nothing but they have always been overpriced . Than you look at how NV tried to keep DX10.1 from being meaningful . But guess what What goes around comes around . The R500 was a rough gig for ATI . But they got it done . Their arch was hard to do and they paid with delays Only to have NV kill the orginal DX10 release for something NV could do . Its been along time since the R500 but NV never woke up and Now we have DX11 what DX10 was suppose to be . NV still can't get it right . I bet when fermi is released that it will not be as Good as ATIs . For graphics or Intel for number crunching . You like nV good be smart and short the stock this company is over,
 
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Fox5

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2005
5,957
7
81
I bought right when released I paid $299 and said good bye to nv forever. Wife is looking for receit . I will post it . $299.

How about I just link you to a review that mentions price:
http://www.guru3d.com/review/ati/radeon9700pro/

Right at the top, $399 MSRP. (btw, the 9700pro was a massive card at the time, amazing how tiny it looks now)
I'm sure it dropped to $299 at some point though.
There was also a Radeon 9700 (not pro) and 9700se released in very limited quantities.