Facebook IPO watch.

[Capt Caveman]

FB will ALWAYS be at risk of turning into a myspace overnight. It is nothing but a brand at this point, and one that a lot of people don't like.

The bulk of people on FB do not use its apps, games, etc. they are simply using it to maintain a convenient contact point and picture/status delivery mechanism to those they know. There isn't a small software shop in the country that couldn't come up with the same basic application in a few months, certainly the meat of it, minus the crap only a minority of people use (though they disproportionately make money for FB--most of us never make it a penny).

FB grew on a dime and its success could turn on it, too. It's done so well only because it was the first major social network to gain traction and this is a self-feeding mechanism. It also protects against competition effectively, because a person cannot move to something else unless all their friends do (don't believe me ask Google who have learned this first hand a few times now). Nonetheless, if the momentum slows and reverses it will never return (ask Myspace).

Disagree with all of this. The number of users and their activity is number 1 compared to any other site. What will replace FB?

 

[cheezy321]

FB will ALWAYS be at risk of turning into a myspace overnight. It is nothing but a brand at this point, and one that a lot of people don't like.

The bulk of people on FB do not use its apps, games, etc. they are simply using it to maintain a convenient contact point and picture/status delivery mechanism to those they know. There isn't a small software shop in the country that couldn't come up with the same basic application in a few months, certainly the meat of it, minus the crap only a minority of people use (though they disproportionately make money for FB--most of us never make it a penny).

FB grew on a dime and its success could turn on it, too. It's done so well only because it was the first major social network to gain traction and this is a self-feeding mechanism. It also protects against competition effectively, because a person cannot move to something else unless all their friends do (don't believe me ask Google who have learned this first hand a few times now). Nonetheless, if the momentum slows and reverses it will never return (ask Myspace).

Everyone makes this argument for facebook, but why does nobody make this argument about Google. What makes google so special that nobody can come and turn it into a yahoo overnight.

 

[kranky]

Disagree with all of this. The number of users and their activity is number 1 compared to any other site. What will replace FB?

I think being number 1 is meaningless when it comes to how the company can make profits to satisfy stockholders. Geocities used to be number 1, so did Myspace. Today it's FB. Tomorrow it could be something else.

Everyone makes this argument for facebook, but why does nobody make this argument about Google. What makes google so special that nobody can come and turn it into a yahoo overnight.

Google isn't special either. No site that makes money from advertising is immune from becoming a has-been. If Google innovates sufficiently to keep those eyeballs coming, they'll thrive; but if not, someone else will.

 

[nboy22]

Everyone makes this argument for facebook, but why does nobody make this argument about Google. What makes google so special that nobody can come and turn it into a yahoo overnight.

Take a step back and look at things. Facebook is a social networking website and google is WAY more than that. Google is the world's top search engine, has a huge unlimited and free email system, owns its own web browser, has its own phone OS, owns youtube, has a social networking page within it, and has countless other apps or programs that are way more useful in everyday life. Facebook has none of that.

Facebook is in the same category as Myspace. They are just social networking sites and that is all they are. When people lose interest in Facebook, there is hardly a way for Facebook to regain those lost people. That's what happened to Myspace.

Now as far as google goes, if someone loses interest in using the search engine function, there are a ton of other apps that may be useful in that person's life. Or chances are they own an android phone or something similar. Google just has a tighter grip in many different areas and that is why no one thinks Google is going to turn into Yahoo overnight.

 

[Phokus]

Facebook has the network effect going for them. It's going to be very difficult to unseat them. A small 'mom and pop' shop isn't going to do it. Maybe google can, but that's going to take a while. What a stupid comment.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Facebook has the network effect going for them. It's going to be very difficult to unseat them. A small 'mom and pop' shop isn't going to do it. Maybe google can, but that's going to take a while. What a stupid comment.

'
LMAO wow. The internet is an evolving creature. There were plenty of #1's before FB and Google. Just because everyones using now doesn't mean they always will. Think of all the #1's in the world that are now out of business. Myspace had networking going for it too. Look where it is today. FB was "mom and pop". 🙄 There is no "unseating" that needs to be done. Just people getting bored, and trust me..people can live w/o FB.

 

[MetalMat]

I still like facebook for the most part and use it to keep in touch with family & friends, it can be hilarious to see jokes my buddies post at times.

However the constant soap opera bs I see on facebook can get annoying. Whether it is someone getting engaged, planning a wedding, posting how much they love each other, breaking up or just having to announce every little thing they do just grinds on me (the ignore posts button is the key).

Also the posting of 5,000+ pics of your kids every day is annoying. Fact, nobody cares. A post here and there is fine but to constantly barrage people publicly with pics of your kids is selfish and ignorant.

 

[FelixDeCat]

FB is has seen every potential source of revenue tapped. Advertisers are also starting to realize that its a pig in a poke, hype machine not worthy of a large ad budget. Here is the most recent:

GM Kills $10 Million Facebook Ad Campaign Because It Didn't Work


http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/05...n-facebook-ad-campaign-because-it-didnt-work/

This stock is for shens. Im pretty positive that the average investor is going to get screwed royally on this. It will be a $10-$15 stock for the next 8-10 years.......just like Yahoo.

This is not the next big thing because they are coming to market fully matured. Expect valuation to be stuck in limbo for quite some time.

If anything, speculative puts are the only attractive thing here since the NEXT big Facebook scandal will cause the share price to crater. 😱

:whiste:

Predicted on May 15, 2012. Who knew it would only take 90 days to transpire. Didn't you kids learn anything from the year 2000 tech bubble crash?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

:whiste:

Predicted on May 15, 2012. Who knew it would only take 90 days to transpire. Didn't you kids learn anything from the year 2000 tech bubble crash?

I have a feeelign that many people that invested in FB did not have money invested in 2000.

And that isn't even the lesson. The lesson is that paying $100 billion for a company that makes less than $1B (FCF terms) is not a wise decision unless there is no debt and $80B+ cash on the books.

Wtih $15B on the books and FCF where it is, FB is worth about $25B. If you can argue better than average growth, FB is probably worth $35B or so. The market cap is now $45B so it's getting closer to rational. Still needs to drop another 30% or so though before it shoudl even be considered. And even then, what are the real growth prsospects?

 

[Nintendesert]

I'm pretty sure everyone who wants facebook has it. The negatives are growing more and more and eventually it will be replaced. That is the history of the Internet. People that invested at 38 bucks were idiots. They got too caught up in the facebook circle jerk of liking it.

Facebook will eventually be worth as much as Digg. 😛

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Disagree with all of this. The number of users and their activity is number 1 compared to any other site. What will replace FB?

As people shift to smart phoens and tablets, nothing. The advertising model is in the process of breaking by FBs own admission. Without revenues, FB dies. When it dies, tehy will nolonger be #1. There will be no number 1 because the market will die.

 

[FelixDeCat]

As people shift to smart phoens and tablets, nothing. The advertising model is in the process of breaking by FBs own admission. Without revenues, FB dies. When it dies, tehy will nolonger be #1. There will be no number 1 because the market will die.

Yeah no. I wholeheartedly disagree with mobile computing evangelists. They will NEVER completely replace desktops. Never.

Why am I am so confident about this? I give you the laptop. Thats right, the laptop. It has been around for decades and has only supplemented, not replaced its counterpart.

Mobile devices like tablets and phones (which have already reached max penetration for now that everyone and their sister has an iphone, except me), will also just supplement but not replace desktops and laptops.

Your friend,

Dr. Meow E. Kat, Esq.
MeowKat Investments, LLC

 

[SSSnail]

I haven't used a desktop at my resident in years, laptops and tablets only. More and more people at work are using laptops with docking stations. You were saying?

 

[actuarial]

Why am I am so confident about this? I give you the laptop. Thats right, the laptop. It has been around for decades and has only supplemented, not replaced its counterpart.

I can name numerous people (including myself) who don't own desktops.

Tablets are way behind laptops in functionality though.

 

[OVerLoRDI]

I can name numerous people (including myself) who don't own desktops.

Tablets are way behind laptops in functionality though.

While I am part of the desktop owners club, most people my age (20s) do not own a desktop. There is just no need for some people and also there is a bit of ignorance.

Using a fall size mechanical keyboard? Joy.

Multiple monitors or large monitors? Joy

A nice mouse, great bulky headphones, beauty video cards, a cool lap? Joy.

But most people don't care that much or realize what they are missing.

 

[Doppel]

This turd of a stock continues to perform. With today's lockout expiration on some shares it dropped another 6%. November I think 1+B shares also are on the market.

 

[Corporate Thug]

Yeah no. I wholeheartedly disagree with mobile computing evangelists. They will NEVER completely replace desktops. Never.

Why am I am so confident about this? I give you the laptop. Thats right, the laptop. It has been around for decades and has only supplemented, not replaced its counterpart.

Mobile devices like tablets and phones (which have already reached max penetration for now that everyone and their sister has an iphone, except me), will also just supplement but not replace desktops and laptops.

Your friend,

Dr. Meow E. Kat, Esq.
MeowKat Investments, LLC

Do you have any numbers on laptop sales v. desktop sales say over the past five years or so?

I don't know how legit this is but it was the first thing that popped up in my google search:

http://www.inquisitr.com/76157/tablets-to-overtake-desktop-sales-by-2015-laptops-will-still-reign/

Possible that laptops have taken the lion's share of the market, not supplemented Desktops.

Edit: A article from 2008:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/2755678...me/t/desktop-going-way-dinosaur/#.UC2CaaCfWqQ

By 2012, laptops will account for more than 80 percent of the consumer market, he said.

 

[Destiny]

This turd of a stock continues to perform. With today's lockout expiration on some shares it dropped another 6%. November I think 1+B shares also are on the market.

Its at $19.87 right now... on monday or tuesday it will drop even more once analysts find out who cashed out after the lockout period expired today...

 

[actuarial]

While I am part of the desktop owners club, most people my age (20s) do not own a desktop. There is just no need for some people and also there is a bit of ignorance.

Using a fall size mechanical keyboard? Joy.

Multiple monitors or large monitors? Joy

A nice mouse, great bulky headphones, beauty video cards, a cool lap? Joy.

But most people don't care that much or realize what they are missing.

I have a keyboard and mouse to connect to my laptop when working.

I much prefer my work desktop to a laptop, but the advantages of a laptop for home use are too great.

 

[Doppel]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...re-price-painful-watch-stock-plummets-19.html

'It's painful to watch': Mark Zuckerberg admits

haha awesome

 

[MontyAC]

So, he's only worth $10 billion now. I pity him.

 

[Printer Bandit]

I will buy when it gets to $5.

 

[SSSnail]

Hmm... I might want to buy some Dec. 22 $19 puts... But damn, 2.70 premium.

 

[Doppel]

Falling again today now under $19. It's MAYBE an ok buy at $15, but even today its PE is still over a hundred.

 

[Theb]

Facebook has the network effect going for them. It's going to be very difficult to unseat them. A small 'mom and pop' shop isn't going to do it. Maybe google can, but that's going to take a while. What a stupid comment.

MySpace has the network effect going for them. It's going to be very difficult to unseat them. 'Some guys in a dorm room' aren't going to do it, especially with News Corp backing it. maybe Microsoft can, but that's going to take a while. What a stupid comment.