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Facebook IPO watch.

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Doppel said:
Today it broke under $26. I don't care what this makes me, what you call me, and how evil it makes me look but I am absolutely freaking loving seeing this stupid stock fall into the toilet. I have no position on it. It just makes me feel great to be alive to watch this turd get flushed.
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Ditto. I hate to see people lose money, but it's past time we got back to creating real businesses in this country; the kind that make the stuff we need and employ Americans to do it. I have nothing against Facebook, but how could anyone think they were worth that much? The same old players hype it up and the same old players make a killing while the mass of "ordinary" investors that buy in get taken for a ride.
 
It closed today 42.5% down from the peak.

I would like to see it hit $22.50 by the end of June. Strange as it may seem, that would bring it to 50% of peak, but is only 13% lower than it is now.

Go go go!
 
If you think its ugly now, wait 6 months when tax loss selling gets underway, then you'll see some major selling and low-ball bids.
 
Rudee said:
Many Analysts have suggested that the initial IPO price may never be reached again.
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Well it would have to rise by 47%.

I'm a rookie at this but I can't find what Facebook's actual income and profitability is. The P/E ratio listed is 0.00 on multiple websites.
 
Doppel said:
Today it broke under $26. I don't care what this makes me, what you call me, and how evil it makes me look but I am absolutely freaking loving seeing this stupid stock fall into the toilet. I have no position on it. It just makes me feel great to be alive to watch this turd get flushed.
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haha let's revisit some of the gems from this thread

This thing has only one place to go UP I will sell the shirt of my back to get in on the ground floor
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Given how LIKD's and GRPN's IPO went, I'm pretty sure you won't see FB under $35 for many years to come.
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I'd also like to add that the very reason you guys are naysaying Facebook (everyone and their mom will buy it) is the very reason they're successful and will continue to make money (everyone and their moms are using it). Get in early and double your money, it's that simple.
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This is the greatest day in human history. Facebook will grow and change the world.
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I'm pretty sure FB will be worth high 50's - 60 (i.e. double) in 1-2 years. People who bought in at 38 have nothing to worry about once the pump and dumpers are done, as long as FB keeps its revenue up.
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FB is worth less than $10 based on lack of debt, cash/equivilents, FCF and share count. This assumes modest growth prospects of maybe 7% a year for 10 years.
 
FB looks like it is getting covered today. New all-time lows on a fairly good tape and then a snap back on a rather benign headline. At some point one has to believe there is going to be at least a short term bottom, as the short rebate exceeds projected return and we see shorts move out. Today may be that day.

Queue the "seeing flow from some deep value guys" rumors and we really see her take off.

<-- No position...

@ 11:22, like a vacuum we pull back to VWAP. Will be important how she trades post VWAP. Shorts got their execution above, now lngs can decide if they want to push it.
 
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Rudee said:
If you think its ugly now, wait 6 months when tax loss selling gets underway, then you'll see some major selling and low-ball bids.
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Not just that. A lot of employees and shareholders have an agreement where they can't sell their stocks until 6 months after the IPO, or something like that.
 
So this begs the same question I've been asking for years. How do they put value on all these internet companies? How did FB ever get valued at that much with no solid #'s of income? How did none of the so called experts see this coming? I would assume most expected a pump and dump, but I don't get the impression that any of the big market people really saw the tanking that happened, while many of us little people are left scratching our heads wondering how they ever thought it was worth that much.

I don't know much at all about markets (that posting above by The-Noid is pretty much gibberish to me) but from here this looks like some elaborate scam to take peoples money by a select chosen few because they knew the hype would get all the suckers and their money.
 
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ImpulsE69 said:
So this begs the same question I've been asking for years. How do they put value on all these internet companies? How did FB ever get valued at that much with no solid #'s of income? How did none of the so called experts see this coming? I would assume most expected a pump and dump, but I don't get the impression that any of the big market people really saw the tanking that happened, while many of us little people are left scratching our heads wondering how they ever thought it was worth that much.
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I suspect they try to determine how high they can set the price and still have a sellout. The fact that in the couple of weeks prior to the IPO you had mass media talking it up and people wondering how they could get in on it probably was a factor in the last-minute bump in price. Remember there have been a lot of dotcoms that had IPOs with valuations based 95% on a rosy future outlook and only 5% on present finances.

On another note, I heard on the news yesterday a survey showed 80% of FB users have never bought anything from FB. The pessimists point to that as evidence FB can't monetize their users enough to justify a high stock price. Optimists say it only shows the vast potential opportunity for FB to rake in multibillions.
 
ImpulsE69 said:
So this begs the same question I've been asking for years. How do they put value on all these internet companies? How did FB ever get valued at that much with no solid #'s of income? How did none of the so called experts see this coming? I would assume most expected a pump and dump, but I don't get the impression that any of the big market people really saw the tanking that happened, while many of us little people are left scratching our heads wondering how they ever thought it was worth that much.

I don't know much at all about markets (that posting above by The-Noid is pretty much gibberish to me) but from here this looks like some elaborate scam to take peoples money by a select chosen few because they knew the hype would get all the suckers and their money.
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Really the only party that made money was FB. The underwriters and trading firms all have trading losses.

I think you will find FB had much more control over the IPO than a normal process, it was not an advisory, symbiotic relationship but a "here's the way it is going to be, if you don't want it that way, we will go another firm."
 
ImpulsE69 said:
So this begs the same question I've been asking for years. How do they put value on all these internet companies? How did FB ever get valued at that much with no solid #'s of income? How did none of the so called experts see this coming? I would assume most expected a pump and dump, but I don't get the impression that any of the big market people really saw the tanking that happened, while many of us little people are left scratching our heads wondering how they ever thought it was worth that much.
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Well, in FB's case since it was already such a big company even before it went public, shares were trading in the secondary markets even before the ipo. Shares traded there as high as $40. So the IPO wasn't out of line since it priced right at the price levels the shares actually traded at before the shares went public. There was nothing wrong with the IPO except the nasdaq bungling things. The price was too high but it was within their right to price it at that level and there was some reason to set the prices at that level. After all, the ipo was way over subscribed so that means people were willing to pay. However, it turns out all the early shareholders from just momentum flippers who had no intention of holding long term and didn't care about the business prospects. The real value was only revealed after it went public.
 
ImpulsE69 said:
So this begs the same question I've been asking for years. How do they put value on all these internet companies? How did FB ever get valued at that much with no solid #'s of income? How did none of the so called experts see this coming? I would assume most expected a pump and dump, but I don't get the impression that any of the big market people really saw the tanking that happened, while many of us little people are left scratching our heads wondering how they ever thought it was worth that much.

I don't know much at all about markets (that posting above by The-Noid is pretty much gibberish to me) but from here this looks like some elaborate scam to take peoples money by a select chosen few because they knew the hype would get all the suckers and their money.
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I was under the impression that most of the "big names" out there knew FB was overpriced and a total flop at P/E of 100. Also, didn't I hear that Morgan Stanley made a butt-load of money on the IPO? I forget if they shorted it or not.

It does seem like it was a pump and dump though. Lot of non-investors that just wanted to buy FB cause "OMFG, I use FB, they gon be huge" sentiment. Just go back in this thread and see the hysteria, the thrashing of the naysayers on the day of the IPO.
 
Imp said:
I was under the impression that most of the "big names" out there knew FB was overpriced and a total flop at P/E of 100. Also, didn't I hear that Morgan Stanley made a butt-load of money on the IPO? I forget if they shorted it or not.

It does seem like it was a pump and dump though. Lot of non-investors that just wanted to buy FB cause "OMFG, I use FB, they gon be huge" sentiment. Just go back in this thread and see the hysteria, the thrashing of the naysayers on the day of the IPO.
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The underwriter is always short...

They didn't specifically short facebook because they tactically thought it would fail. They are short because there is too much risk of limited ability to fill.

Underwriters are short IPOS that go up 50% as well, against their longs. Their job is to collect a fee not to send out a flop and short it, or make money underpricing it.
 
SirStev0 said:
Did this surprise anyone?
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Yes, about 90% of the people who thought this thought it would be easy money. My posts going back to last year have clearly indicated to short this mofo.

I think they forgot that once everyone who wanted a piece of FB already had it, the only place left to go was down. 😱
 
ImpulsE69 said:
So this begs the same question I've been asking for years. How do they put value on all these internet companies? How did FB ever get valued at that much with no solid #'s of income? How did none of the so called experts see this coming? I would assume most expected a pump and dump, but I don't get the impression that any of the big market people really saw the tanking that happened, while many of us little people are left scratching our heads wondering how they ever thought it was worth that much.

I don't know much at all about markets (that posting above by The-Noid is pretty much gibberish to me) but from here this looks like some elaborate scam to take peoples money by a select chosen few because they knew the hype would get all the suckers and their money.
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I remember reading an article a few years back when Facebook overwhelming surpassed Myspace in user numbers... BUT advertisers say they were getting a better return on Myspace than Facebook and that Myspace users responded to ads much more than Facebook users...D:
 
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