Well, peak oil is a mathematical certainty (ala death and taxes), the only possible argument to be made is about the timming, and its as simple as looking at 3 graphs: production, price, and new discoveries. The fact of the matter is that we use oil alot faster than we produce it and there is only so much extra left over from what we discovered decades ago. Peak oil is 99+% to happen in out lifetimes, the only question is how much it will hurt.
Specop 007
Diamond Member
- Jan 31, 2005
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First off I'm drunk so forgive the spelling...
Ahhh, investment banking. That explains a HELL of a lot. You live in the fantastically perfect world of ever increasing resources.
What facts woul you like? How about the Saudi's projected field decreases? How about Pemex's decre3ases? How about the new wells drilled that wont be able to offset the declines elsehwre? How about relying on bullshit hype like shale to save us? How about coal being good for a realistic 20-30 years?
You arent looking at it from the right viewpoint. You look at it from the viewpoint of, well, a banker. Money can save us. Alternatives will come online. Blah blah. Whatever.,
Tell me what facts you want that you'll LISTEN to rather the simply cast aside because "its tinfoil hat bullshit".
Specop 007
Diamond Member
- Jan 31, 2005
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Imagine a world of ever decreasing EVEYHING. :ess opil, less energy, less coal, less cars, less free money to invest, falling monetary values....
I see why your so set in your ways. Your entgire way of life, literally, is built upon the foundation of cheap energy to allow the investments we have.
Its coming to an end. Please, PLEASE LEgend. Take my advice. At LEAST learn how to grow a garden. If I AM wrong (Which truly IO hope I am!) you;'ll have tasty vegetables in tghe summer.
I know how to grow a garden. I lived on many acres growing up. Why don't you learn how to reason.
If you want to subscribe to logic-less gloom and doom, fine by me.
Specop 007
Diamond Member
- Jan 31, 2005
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Legend....
Lets start this all over. I'm not here to insult you. I'm not some dreamed up enemy here to ridicule or make fun of you.
Try to show the same respect??
Again I ask, honestly and with no evil intentions, what is it you want me to clarify when I say we are running out of oil?
EDIT
And I cant spell for shit tonight.
Lets start this all over. I'm not here to insult you. I'm not some dreamed up enemy here to ridicule or make fun of you.
Try to show the same respect??
Again I ask, honestly and with no evil intentions, what is it you want me to clarify when I say we are running out of oil?
EDIT
And I cant spell for shit tonight.
I want to you quantify *ALL* of the recoverable oil on this planet. Proved, unproved, currently reachable, not currently reachable, shale, sand, new technologies to develop the prior two, how much it costs to do so, and when all of the above will be economically feasible.
Followed by that, quantify and qualify all new technologies that will come to fruition as replacements are sought for increasing extraction and transportation costs. This includes when and how fusion, solar, wind, thermal, tidal, will all be deployed.
Finally, create a realistic timeframe on when these will be phased in and at what price levels, since economics dictates that money attracts investment which spurs innovation creating advancement.
When you can do all of that and how how it fails, let me know. Otherwise, you're not completing the entire equation and outlook. You're being illogical and unreasonable.
Specop 007
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This is what I mean by being unrealistic and looking at it in terms of a banker.,
We cant drill it if we dont know about it. So all undiscovered reserves amount to nothing. We cant extract it if we dont have the technology. So all current unrecoverable reserves are AT BEST a skeptical source.
You might as well, honestly, say "Hey I saw light sabers on Star Wars, when can I order one!".
As for "fusion, solar, wind, thermal, tidal"
Well, thats all at best a stop gap measure to oil depletion. Thisd representd what would have to be built each year to replace our oil needs. I really dont see 91 MILLION solar panels being put into production each year. Let alone wind or nuclear.
To put it simply, in the economy of scale all those alternatives fall oin their ass. Badly.
So, effectively, you can't quantify or qualify all innovation that'll take place in the next 40 years.
Ok, so now that we've got that down. You're effectively left with nothing but ignorance.
Thanks
Specop 007
Diamond Member
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No, I'm showing the difference between one who deals in numebrs and one who deals in tgechnology.
Most people will tell you dont count on technology that doesnt exist. You deal with money and ionvestments, so that means nothing to you.
Time will prove me right. THAT I will bank on. In fact, the world you know is right now so far out of touch of reality I'm suprsied you arent at least pretending to have an open mind.
But its your loss, not mine.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
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Specop as I've said elsewhere at least and is easily findable in the news, the Sauds are increasin gproduction, not just now but down the road. They're projected to increase production _subtantially_ in the next couple of years--short term, not long term.
No, you don't deal with numbers, nor do you deal with reality.
Most people tell you to not count on technology that doesn't exist? Are you fucking kidding me? I suppose you'd have been one of those guys to go tell the Wright Brothers to stop trying. Preposterous, humans flying!?!?!
This is what's so funny about you people. You're mind is limited by what's right in front of you. You have no idea of human potential and innovation, yet you're more than willing to sit by and do nothing with your life.
I really couldn't care less about you, I'd just like to counter your BS to ensure others don't get trapped by it.
legendkiller understands the issue far better than you are capable, it's clear to any rational, informed individual.
we've used up about half the oil that can be recovered for $20 a barrel, we have yet to even start cracking the supply of oil that can be recovered for $100, let alone $200. So yes, we have hit peak oil for $20/barrel oil.
Anyways by 2015 we could be able to 'grow' enough oil to meet world demand as it stands at current prices, the technology exists, its just a matter of implementation and capital. That said it will be much cheaper to just get most of it from the ground.
Anyways by 2015 we could be able to 'grow' enough oil to meet world demand as it stands at current prices, the technology exists, its just a matter of implementation and capital. That said it will be much cheaper to just get most of it from the ground.
That's the thing. They think that something has to replace oil to be feasible. Oil will be around for a long time, other techs will phase in to replace dino oil, including shale/sand.
Even now, billions of dollars of money, equipment, and people, are flooding into alberta to extract the oil sands. Technology there is advancing rapidly.
Add in the algae or bacteria oil, fusion, fission, other renewable energy, you get a comprehensive plan.
There's so much out there that humans can produce, it just needs money to be effective. I'm not even an energy analyst. I just finance hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment that's flooding into Alberta. I have opinions from some of the top economists in the world that I have read to finance that transaction.
Originally posted by: Skoorb
so what you're saying is that i shouldn't sell my Canadian citizenship for $400 in gasoline
I wouldn't
. Portions of the Canadian economy aren't great. Manufacturing (specifically autos) are in the shitter. Housing has busted in many areas, but not nearly as bad as here, some are down maybe 5-8%, not almost 30% like the US. Municipal and infrastructure spending is way up and spending in alberta is skyrocketing. Overall, people should be very bullish on Canada.The Loony is doing great and that's having ripple effects too. The used luxury car market in CA is in the shitter, mainly because people are using dislocations in the US market price/exchange rate, to go across the border to buy cars. Same thing with the Alberta equipment.
CA financial markets are still wonky, especially securitization. After August things went bad quickly because they didn't have the same systems we had here for backing up their money market. As a result, their market froze up. Now, due to the repeal of the Witholding Tax for cross-border investments, US financial people (like me) are going across the border and financing Canadian equipment. This will only drive investments in Alberta. The Ag market is going awesome, good stories all around there.
It's a good story and one that shows that capital is attracted to money making ventures. You'll see the same thing happen to the Bakken, offshore drilling, and new technologies to make or replace oil.
When people are tossing trillions of dollars at it something's bound to happen.
People don't know what peak oil means
Peak oil is not a shortage of reserves but the ability to produce what the world demands, easily and economically.
Hubert said CONVENTIONAL OIL not tar sands, coal liquids or shale and if you look at conventional oil it is down or flat for the last 3 yrs. Also new discoveries won't offset declines and that is what is proving true many giant feilds are in decline and no new giant feilds found in decades which is where we get most of our oil.
10 years ago there were more exporting nations that now are importing China being one of them, also GB, Russia and Mexico.
Saudia Arabia may make up some but the reason they are tapping into new feilds is they have to pump huge amounts of seawater into Ghwar to keep the pressure up. In OPEC nations lying about reserves is part of social standing within the organization.
Peak OIl as illustrated by Kunsler is going back to the 1850's 'doomers'
Other's are techno-fix and market solves all, but so many including the counter point article are nieve in thinking for example there is enough lithium to create hundreds of millions of auto batteries. Oil sands have been in development for 30 yrs and produce 2 mbpd , wow 1/40 of global supply they can't easily be ramped up
Personally I'm bumpy plateau and practical peak oil believer, where alternatives and geo-political problems and all the other production problems will create solutions and conversely price super spikes and or production shortfall, until enough people die and we conserve with efficiency enough, and finally get around to building alternative systems that can sustain the world. How we get there I have no idea.
Take the peak oil article from above who goes to great lengths to try and debunk it, some of it right, some crap, and this is his final warning.
"Hardly. We do need to face the fact that the end of the era of easy-to-access light sweet crude is pretty much at hand. While technology will continue to do its part in lowering prices, getting them back to the "good old days" of $1/gal gasoline is not something one should expect any time soon. Making matters worse is that many of the newly economical ways to produce oil are quite dirty, especially in terms of greenhouse gases. We may not run out of oil, but the environment is certainly going to pay for our insatiable consumption. Lastly, it is important to be able to predict many years in advance as to where levels of supply and demand will be in order to avert production shortfalls."
Peak oil is not a shortage of reserves but the ability to produce what the world demands, easily and economically.
Hubert said CONVENTIONAL OIL not tar sands, coal liquids or shale and if you look at conventional oil it is down or flat for the last 3 yrs. Also new discoveries won't offset declines and that is what is proving true many giant feilds are in decline and no new giant feilds found in decades which is where we get most of our oil.
10 years ago there were more exporting nations that now are importing China being one of them, also GB, Russia and Mexico.
Saudia Arabia may make up some but the reason they are tapping into new feilds is they have to pump huge amounts of seawater into Ghwar to keep the pressure up. In OPEC nations lying about reserves is part of social standing within the organization.
Peak OIl as illustrated by Kunsler is going back to the 1850's 'doomers'
Other's are techno-fix and market solves all, but so many including the counter point article are nieve in thinking for example there is enough lithium to create hundreds of millions of auto batteries. Oil sands have been in development for 30 yrs and produce 2 mbpd , wow 1/40 of global supply they can't easily be ramped up
Personally I'm bumpy plateau and practical peak oil believer, where alternatives and geo-political problems and all the other production problems will create solutions and conversely price super spikes and or production shortfall, until enough people die and we conserve with efficiency enough, and finally get around to building alternative systems that can sustain the world. How we get there I have no idea.
Take the peak oil article from above who goes to great lengths to try and debunk it, some of it right, some crap, and this is his final warning.
"Hardly. We do need to face the fact that the end of the era of easy-to-access light sweet crude is pretty much at hand. While technology will continue to do its part in lowering prices, getting them back to the "good old days" of $1/gal gasoline is not something one should expect any time soon. Making matters worse is that many of the newly economical ways to produce oil are quite dirty, especially in terms of greenhouse gases. We may not run out of oil, but the environment is certainly going to pay for our insatiable consumption. Lastly, it is important to be able to predict many years in advance as to where levels of supply and demand will be in order to avert production shortfalls."
little elvis
Senior member
- Sep 8, 2005
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Oil sand extraction technology hasn't changed in 40 years.... They still use the same hot water technique developed in the 60's. What has improved is operational efficiency, which has driven down the cost of extraction.
New technology is just now being looked at, however, all current mining projects in the pipeline are still going to use the original Syncrude/Suncor extraction process or the Shell parrafinic process.
In-situ technology is 25 years old and it is now only being implemented on a large scale. Variations on the In-situ technology is now being studied, it is hoped that it's time to implementation is going to be shorter.
I've worked with oil companies for the last year, specifically on technology development, and to be honest they are bunch of cheap bastards. One of the most telling things ever told to me was by a VP at BP Energy, which was "Oil companies still operate as if Oil is $20 a barrel, until that mind set is over come, the quick implementation of new technology will always be slow"
? ? ?
Matt Simmons, Twilight in the Desert, which he wrote after
reviewing the Saudi's oil books.
http://www.twilightinthedesert.com/
Specop 007
Diamond Member
- Jan 31, 2005
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Ok, a few articles. Please note I dont say "facts" because I cant say for 100% certainly that is is unquestionably true.
But heres a few things to get you started on your road to rebuttals.
WSJ
Global Oil-Supply Worries Fuel Debate in Saudi Arabia
Sadad al-Husseini and Nansen Saleri raced up the ranks at Saudi Aramco, the world's most powerful oil company, working together for years to squeeze more crude from Saudi Arabia's massive fields. Today, the two men have staked out opposite sides of a momentous industry debate.
Mr. Husseini, Aramco's second-in-command until 2004, says the world faces a brute reality of depleting resources and ever rising prices. Mr. Saleri, until recently the company's oil-reservoir manager, insists that with enough ingenuity and investment, plenty more oil can be found.
New Scientist
Earth's natural wealth: an audit
Platinum is a vital component not only of catalytic converters but also of fuel cells - and supplies are running out. It has been estimated that if all the 500 million vehicles in use today were re-equipped with fuel cells, operating losses would mean that all the world's sources of platinum would be exhausted within 15 years.
WSJ
A Metal Scare to Rival the Oil Scare
Indium, gallium and hafnium are some of the least-known elements on the periodic table, but New Scientist warns that reserves of these low-profile minerals and others like them might soon be exhausted thanks to the demand for flat screens and other high-tech goods. Scientists who have tried to estimate how long the world?s mineral supply can meet global demand have made some gloomy predictions.
Bloomberg
Global Crude Oil Production Dropped in 2007, BP Says
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Global oil production fell for the first time in five years in 2007 and reserves also declined as prices rose to records, BP Plc said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy.
Crude oil production dropped 0.2 percent to 81.533 million barrels a day last year, from 81.659 million barrels a day in 2006, the London-based company said today. Proved reserves were 1,237.9 billion barrels at the end of last year, compared with a revised total of 1,239.5 billion barrels for 2006.
Index Mundi
(This graph shows Saudi production rates. And without even more investment (Read, pumping even harder) they will decline yet again. The fields are running out.....)
Raise the hammer
Peak Oil for Saudi Arabia?
At yesterday's Peak Oil presentation to Hamilton City Council, Richard Gilbert mentioned a little-reported event that may mark the day that the earth tipped past its oil production peak.
Amazingly, a search of news reports turned up virtually nothing. I eventually tracked down the original report from Platts Oilgram News: Saudi Aramco announced on April 10, 2006 that Saudi Arabia's mature oilfields "are expected to decline at a gross average rate of 8 percent a year without additional maintenance and drilling."
(Further proof that Saudi is in decline with additional infrastructure investments....Meaning again, they need to suck harder because the fields are in a state of natural decline)
Hows that for now? Now go find me some news sources contradicting that information. I dont give a rats ass about your personal views or opinions, that means fuck all to me.
I want news articles or scientific papers disproving what I have posted, or disproving Peak Oil.
But heres a few things to get you started on your road to rebuttals.
WSJ
Global Oil-Supply Worries Fuel Debate in Saudi Arabia
Sadad al-Husseini and Nansen Saleri raced up the ranks at Saudi Aramco, the world's most powerful oil company, working together for years to squeeze more crude from Saudi Arabia's massive fields. Today, the two men have staked out opposite sides of a momentous industry debate.
Mr. Husseini, Aramco's second-in-command until 2004, says the world faces a brute reality of depleting resources and ever rising prices. Mr. Saleri, until recently the company's oil-reservoir manager, insists that with enough ingenuity and investment, plenty more oil can be found.
New Scientist
Earth's natural wealth: an audit
Platinum is a vital component not only of catalytic converters but also of fuel cells - and supplies are running out. It has been estimated that if all the 500 million vehicles in use today were re-equipped with fuel cells, operating losses would mean that all the world's sources of platinum would be exhausted within 15 years.
WSJ
A Metal Scare to Rival the Oil Scare
Indium, gallium and hafnium are some of the least-known elements on the periodic table, but New Scientist warns that reserves of these low-profile minerals and others like them might soon be exhausted thanks to the demand for flat screens and other high-tech goods. Scientists who have tried to estimate how long the world?s mineral supply can meet global demand have made some gloomy predictions.
Bloomberg
Global Crude Oil Production Dropped in 2007, BP Says
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Global oil production fell for the first time in five years in 2007 and reserves also declined as prices rose to records, BP Plc said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy.
Crude oil production dropped 0.2 percent to 81.533 million barrels a day last year, from 81.659 million barrels a day in 2006, the London-based company said today. Proved reserves were 1,237.9 billion barrels at the end of last year, compared with a revised total of 1,239.5 billion barrels for 2006.
Index Mundi
(This graph shows Saudi production rates. And without even more investment (Read, pumping even harder) they will decline yet again. The fields are running out.....)
Raise the hammer
Peak Oil for Saudi Arabia?
At yesterday's Peak Oil presentation to Hamilton City Council, Richard Gilbert mentioned a little-reported event that may mark the day that the earth tipped past its oil production peak.
Amazingly, a search of news reports turned up virtually nothing. I eventually tracked down the original report from Platts Oilgram News: Saudi Aramco announced on April 10, 2006 that Saudi Arabia's mature oilfields "are expected to decline at a gross average rate of 8 percent a year without additional maintenance and drilling."
(Further proof that Saudi is in decline with additional infrastructure investments....Meaning again, they need to suck harder because the fields are in a state of natural decline)
Hows that for now? Now go find me some news sources contradicting that information. I dont give a rats ass about your personal views or opinions, that means fuck all to me.
I want news articles or scientific papers disproving what I have posted, or disproving Peak Oil.
Specop 007
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StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
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Dunno where you're getting this peak oil from Saudi rubbish, it's nuts.
A real link
At 80 M/day the world consumes, that means that Saudi alone could fuel the world at current consumption for TEN YEARS and that's if every single other country on the planet stopped producing oil and never tried again--and assuming Saudi didn't find more oil or have the economic motivation (high prices) to get at other oil.
A real link
.
At 80 M/day the world consumes, that means that Saudi alone could fuel the world at current consumption for TEN YEARS and that's if every single other country on the planet stopped producing oil and never tried again--and assuming Saudi didn't find more oil or have the economic motivation (high prices) to get at other oil.
Specop 007
Diamond Member
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First off Skoorb, total reserves does not represent recoverable reserves. In fact, total reserves is almost a meaningless number. What matters is recoverable reserves. It doesnt matter if you have 1 barrel of 100 trillion billion megaplexus barrel if you cant recover any of it!
To the field and its effects...
Hindu Business
Get used to high oil prices: Saudi King
DUBAI: Blaming energy taxes, speculation and high consumption for soaring oil prices, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said both producers and consumers should control these factors to ?soften'' the impact on the people.
(Seems that extra production doesnt help the Saudi's think prices will fall)
Business Week
Inside Saudi Arabia's New Mega-Oil Field
Saudi Aramco is spending $10 billion to retool the Al Khurais field to produce 1.25 million barrels of light crude a day
Al Khurais is the centerpiece of a Saudi effort to lift production capacity from the current 11 million or so barrels per day to 12.5 million barrels daily by next year. Aramco executives want to emphasize that their approach is conservative and long term. To make the point, exploration and production chief Amin Nasser said that Aramco's average depletion rate?the volume of oil it produces a year as a percentage of reserves?was only about 2%. By contrast, he said other producers and international oil companies average 4% to 9% depletion rates. This approach, he said, lets the Saudis deploy better technology and recover more oil than an energy company under pressure to produce as much as possible before its lease runs out.
Overall, the Saudis come off as an exception to the otherwise anaemic supply picture. Many other oil countries, including Nigeria, Russia, Venezuela, and Mexico, are coming up short on output (BusinessWeek, 6/19/08). That leaves the Saudis, who say they are the most reliable suppliers, with an awfully large burden to shoulder.
(The Saudis ADMIT to depletion being an issue. A large capital investment can overcome current production declines at the expense of sharper declines later on down the road. How is it when the Saudi's themselves slyly admit to declines we ignore it?! This in my mind is the biggest problem. Even with declines in established fields no one takes any note fo that. Its almost as if we turn our back to these problems they will simply go away....I'm sorry, but only a blind optimist would ignore the Saudis claim of depletion rates between 4 and 9%. 9% is a HUGE rate of decline.)
EDIT TO ADD
Forgot this little gem. Its from your OWN link Skoorb...
Aramco is using hundreds of mostly South Asian workers to build a massive processing facility at the field. More than 150 wells will pump crude to the surface, where water and gas will be separated out. The oil then will be funneled to the country's east-west pipeline for delivery to ships in the Red Sea.
Workers are also building a huge sea-water injection system to pump more than 2 million barrels of water per day from the Gulf into 120 wells. That will maintain the necessary pressure underground to push the oil to the surface.
To put that in perspective, heres another tidbit about water injection.
NY Times
Now the Saudis are deploying an extraordinary engineering effort to bring Khurais?s mile-deep oil to the surface. Seawater will be carried through new pipelines from the Persian Gulf and injected into oil-bearing rock to pressure the oil upward. Usually Aramco pumps seawater into a field only after several years of production, and some skeptics point to this as a reason to doubt that Khurais will live up to its billing. But Mr. Nasser said the huge seawater injection system at Khurais was about cost and logistics, not a sign of a weak field.
To the field and its effects...
Hindu Business
Get used to high oil prices: Saudi King
DUBAI: Blaming energy taxes, speculation and high consumption for soaring oil prices, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said both producers and consumers should control these factors to ?soften'' the impact on the people.
(Seems that extra production doesnt help the Saudi's think prices will fall)
Business Week
Inside Saudi Arabia's New Mega-Oil Field
Saudi Aramco is spending $10 billion to retool the Al Khurais field to produce 1.25 million barrels of light crude a day
Al Khurais is the centerpiece of a Saudi effort to lift production capacity from the current 11 million or so barrels per day to 12.5 million barrels daily by next year. Aramco executives want to emphasize that their approach is conservative and long term. To make the point, exploration and production chief Amin Nasser said that Aramco's average depletion rate?the volume of oil it produces a year as a percentage of reserves?was only about 2%. By contrast, he said other producers and international oil companies average 4% to 9% depletion rates. This approach, he said, lets the Saudis deploy better technology and recover more oil than an energy company under pressure to produce as much as possible before its lease runs out.
Overall, the Saudis come off as an exception to the otherwise anaemic supply picture. Many other oil countries, including Nigeria, Russia, Venezuela, and Mexico, are coming up short on output (BusinessWeek, 6/19/08). That leaves the Saudis, who say they are the most reliable suppliers, with an awfully large burden to shoulder.
(The Saudis ADMIT to depletion being an issue. A large capital investment can overcome current production declines at the expense of sharper declines later on down the road. How is it when the Saudi's themselves slyly admit to declines we ignore it?! This in my mind is the biggest problem. Even with declines in established fields no one takes any note fo that. Its almost as if we turn our back to these problems they will simply go away....I'm sorry, but only a blind optimist would ignore the Saudis claim of depletion rates between 4 and 9%. 9% is a HUGE rate of decline.)
EDIT TO ADD
Forgot this little gem. Its from your OWN link Skoorb...
Aramco is using hundreds of mostly South Asian workers to build a massive processing facility at the field. More than 150 wells will pump crude to the surface, where water and gas will be separated out. The oil then will be funneled to the country's east-west pipeline for delivery to ships in the Red Sea.
Workers are also building a huge sea-water injection system to pump more than 2 million barrels of water per day from the Gulf into 120 wells. That will maintain the necessary pressure underground to push the oil to the surface.
To put that in perspective, heres another tidbit about water injection.
NY Times
Now the Saudis are deploying an extraordinary engineering effort to bring Khurais?s mile-deep oil to the surface. Seawater will be carried through new pipelines from the Persian Gulf and injected into oil-bearing rock to pressure the oil upward. Usually Aramco pumps seawater into a field only after several years of production, and some skeptics point to this as a reason to doubt that Khurais will live up to its billing. But Mr. Nasser said the huge seawater injection system at Khurais was about cost and logistics, not a sign of a weak field.
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