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Electoral vote prediction thread.

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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I'll make a hard pick next Monday 🙂
Click to expand...
I clearly see you're a conservative with deep convictions to his party :laugh:
 
355 Obama, 183 McCain, this using the slider on CNN. I'm very hesitant, really, to say that. I'm sure Obama will get over 300, but this is what the sliding gets when I attribute various states, so...
 
tie

A coin toss will decide if the President will be determined by pistols at dawn or the Thunderdome.
Pistols at dawn: McCain victory
Thunderdome: Obama victory
 
http://www.burntorangereport.c...wDiary.do?diaryId=5780*

http://electoralmap.net/index.php

* This was done before his website 538 was well known, so I put more credence into this analysis as being more unbiased and conducted more as a pure statistical what if analysis. It does not include any lingering Hillary supporters voting for McLame data, I don't think (he has previously said that 10% cross over and vote for other party's candidate historically, though).


 
I'm inclined to go Obama 364 McCain 174.

Nothing would make me happier than to see Arizona tell McCain to shove it where the sun doesn't shine.
 
Originally posted by: Eeezee
FiveThirtyEight.com is run by a real statistician doing real statistics.

As such, I'm putting my bets on his highest probability calculation, which is Obama 375, followed by Obama 364 and 338.
Click to expand...
All that is based on data collected TODAY that may be true next week.

Look back and RCP's electoral count history and you will see that back on August 19 they had McCain winning 274-264.

There are a LOT of questions about the poll and how accurate they are. The range of polls this year is much different that last year. And then we have the data out of Nevada that suggests that in early voting so far the young, new voters and hispanics are NOT showing up.

Much of the Obama wins big time is based on the young and new voters showing up. If the Nevada trend is matched nation wide then the race will be a LOT closer than anyone suspects.
 
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Eeezee
FiveThirtyEight.com is run by a real statistician doing real statistics.

As such, I'm putting my bets on his highest probability calculation, which is Obama 375, followed by Obama 364 and 338.
Click to expand...
All that is based on data collected TODAY that may be true next week.

Look back and RCP's electoral count history and you will see that back on August 19 they had McCain winning 274-264.

There are a LOT of questions about the poll and how accurate they are. The range of polls this year is much different that last year. And then we have the data out of Nevada that suggests that in early voting so far the young, new voters and hispanics are NOT showing up.

Much of the Obama wins big time is based on the young and new voters showing up. If the Nevada trend is matched nation wide then the race will be a LOT closer than anyone suspects.
Click to expand...

And predictions from over two months are relevant how?

Things can change a lot more in two and a half months than they can in one week. That's not to say McCain is incapable of winning, but it's not looking very likely.

Me, I predict Obama will win the following toss-up states:

Nevada
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida

I predict McCain will win these toss-up states:

Missouri
Indiana
North Carolina

For a total EV count of 338-200.
 
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