Electoral vote prediction thread.

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M

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
predictions now closed

Ok, there are 7 days until polls close.

the purpose in this thread it to lay down your electoral vote prediction. I'll quote your prediction in the OP, and whoever is closest to the final result wins some e-cred. No new predictions will be taken after Sunday. If you want to provide a breakdown or explanation go ahead, but i'll only be tracking your actual prediction.

If a mod wants to sticky this that would be cool, I've never had a stickied thread before.


i'll start:

I think the 'enthusiasm gap' is going to show up much stronger than people think, and results will show up 1-3 points stronger than the mean polls generally show. I think the current infighting in the republican party will hurt turnout as well.

Obama wins all the tossup states on pollster.com (MT, ND, mo, in, nc, go, fl) as well as Arizona (!!?) and 1 of Nebraska's votes. I couldn't decide on Mississippi which i think might be in play, so I'm hedging it against Arizona.

407 Obama, 131 Mccain



Prediction list
miketheidiot - obama 407 mccain 131
Jpeyton - Obama 344 McCain 194
Ironwing - Obama 371 McCain 167
Profjohn - Obama <300 McCain ~250 make up your mind :p
Balt - Obama 338 McCain 200
musicman64 - Obama 349 McCain 189
Rike - Obama 278 McCain 260
umbrella39 - Obama 337 McCain 201
Duddy - Obama 364 McCain 174
SSSnail - Supreme court
Vic - Obama 338 Mccain 200
Cyclowizard - McCain 270 Obama 268
Viditor - Obama 364 McCain 174
Farang - Obama 364 Mccain 174
Eeezee - Obama 375 Mccain 163
dmcowen674 - Tie
Evan - Obama 375 McCain 163
Ballatician - Obama 306 McCain 232
Skoorb - 355 Obama 183 McCain
Siddhartha - Obama 311 McCain 227
davestar - Obama 348 McCain 190
Theb - Tie
Blackjack200 - Obama 381 McCain 157
Sheik Yerbouti - Obama 364 McCain 174
MikeyLSU - Obama 290 McCain 248
BW86 - Obama 311 McCain 227
ElFenix - Obama 375 Mccain 163
ArizonaSteve - Obama 364 McCain 174
eits - 364 obama 174 mccain
techs - 291 obama 247 mccain or 318 obama 220 mccain make up your mind :p
AstroManLuca - 338 obama 200 mccain
SP33Demon - 322 obama 216 mccain
evident - 364 obama 174 mccain
alexruiz - 274 obama 264 mccain
Pens1566 - Obama 353 McCain 185
winnar111 - Obama 311 McCain 227
badnewcastle - Mccain 273 obama 265
lunarray - 313 obama 225 mccain
dbk - Obama 291 247 McCain
phreakah - 333 obama 205 mccain
Insomniator - McCain 271 Obama 267
the unknown - Obama 344 McCain 194
rockyct - 338 Obama 200 McCain.
OrByte - 311 Obama 227 mccain
SlingXShot - 282 obama 256 mccain
ultimatebob - 295 obama 243 mccain
Starbuck1975 - Obama 288 McCain 250
DLeRium - 364 obama 174 mccain
shira - Obama 353 McCain 185


Useful Sites
realclearpolitics
pollster
538
Early voting stats
270towin
washington Post - Pick Your President
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,042
26,921
136
Obama/Biden 371
McCain/Palin 167

McCain wins MO and IN
Obama wins MS, LA, WY, WV
 
ProfJohn

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
8
0
My guess:
Obama less than 300
McCain 250 perhaps

McCain takes NC, Fl, IN and perhaps Ohio. Not sure on VA. Colorado could end up being the state that puts Obama over the top since he has a solid lead there.

Remember state polls lag national poll and the national polls are showing small pick ups for McCain 2/3 points.

A few more strong days in the stock market could really help McCain.
 
B

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,674
482
126
Obama: 338
McCain: 200

I expected the race to tighten up a bit towards the end and become competitive, but it really hasn't to any significant degree.
 
R

Rike

Platinum Member
Oct 14, 2004
2,614
2
81
I'm fairly pessimistic. I think the Bradley effect is going to catch up to Obama in the south but not in the west.

Obama 278 McCain 260

I'd be happy to be wrong, but I think it's going to be closer than some people think.

Edit: Spelling!
 
F

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,914
3
0
I'm a bit confused here. I tried to use RCP to make a prediction but it gave me Obama 349, McCain 200. 549 electoral votes.
 
Duddy

Duddy

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2002
4,675
9
81
Obama 364 McCain 174

I feel pretty confident about those numbers too. I'd be willing to bet money on it in fact.
 
M

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: Farang
I'm a bit confused here. I tried to use RCP to make a prediction but it gave me Obama 349, McCain 200. 549 electoral votes.
Click to expand...

it glitches every now and then
 
Vic

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,415
14,305
136
338 - 200, 52% - 47%

It ain't over yet. There's going to a number of close states.
 
C

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
McCain - 270, Obama - 268

Assuming all states are all-or-nothing, anyway. I doubt I'm right, but I'm getting good odds right now. :p
 
Duddy

Duddy

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2002
4,675
9
81
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
McCain - 270, Obama - 268

Assuming all states are all-or-nothing, anyway. I doubt I'm right, but I'm getting good odds right now. :p
Click to expand...

LOL :p
 
V

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
McCain - 174
Obama - 364

That number is just all the battleground states going to Obama.
It's also possible that 1 or 2 of the current "Red" states will go Obama as well, but I'm not that optimistic yet.
 
jpeyton

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
My guess:
Obama less than 300
McCain 250 perhaps

McCain takes NC, Fl, IN and perhaps Ohio. Not sure on VA. Colorado could end up being the state that puts Obama over the top since he has a solid lead there.

Remember state polls lag national poll and the national polls are showing small pick ups for McCain 2/3 points.

A few more strong days in the stock market could really help McCain.
Click to expand...
C'mon, you can come up with a hard number. It's not like you have money riding on it. The whole less than/greater than pick is soft.

Obama <538
McCain >0
 
ProfJohn

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
8
0
I'll make a hard pick next Monday :)
Gore made up 5 points in the last week, Ford made up a lot of points in the last week, Reagan made HUGE gains etc.
Once the undecideds start to decide we will know if it will be a long night or a very short sad night :)
 
E

Eeezee

Diamond Member
Jul 23, 2005
9,923
0
0
FiveThirtyEight.com is run by a real statistician doing real statistics.

As such, I'm putting my bets on his highest probability calculation, which is Obama 375, followed by Obama 364 and 338.
 
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