Electoral Count (Bush 254 Kerry 242) (Ohio to Bush?)

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CPA

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
128K with 97% reporting. Ashland, Athens and Hamilton counties are really the only counties that aren't fully reported and they are all Republican leaning counties. I expect Bush to win with about 140K margin. Enough to possible squelch the talk about provisional ballots.
 
B

BunLengthHotDog

Senior member
Feb 21, 2003
728
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Originally posted by: Abraxas
Doing some quick math here, Say Kerry is down by 100K with 250K outstanding. 100K of the 250 will have to go to just catching up, so he would need %40 just to break even with the gap now. That means 60% will still be left and Kerry would have to win half of that to get a lead, half of %60 is %30 plus the %40 needed to just catch up comes out to %70 even, or 175K.
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Thank you, I thought my math was close. 70% of the provisional vote (judging by the counted votes tonight) is pretty much impossible.
 
A

Aegeon

Golden Member
Nov 2, 2004
1,809
125
106
Originally posted by: CPA
128K with 97% reporting. Ashland, Athens and Hamilton counties are really the only counties that aren't fully reported and they are all Republican leaning counties. I expect Bush to win with about 140K margin. Enough to possible squelch the talk about provisional ballots.
Click to expand...
This is false. Athens is heavily Kerry leaning so far. Lucas has also not fully counted, and leans substancially to Kerry.
 
Abraxas

Abraxas

Golden Member
Oct 26, 2004
1,056
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0
On the local news they said the early voting put him down by tens of thousands (Sixty IIRC) before tonight's bit even started. I don't know how they got their numbers, I'm just telling you what I heard.
 
A

Aegeon

Golden Member
Nov 2, 2004
1,809
125
106
Originally posted by: Abraxas
Doing some quick math here, Say Kerry is down by 100K with 250K outstanding. 100K of the 250 will have to go to just catching up, so he would need %40 just to break even with the gap now. That means 60% will still be left and Kerry would have to win half of that to get a lead, half of %60 is %30 plus the %40 needed to just catch up comes out to %70 even, or 175K.
Click to expand...
You're confusing me. If Kerry gets a lead, then he's outright ahead. I don't see where the 175k number is coming from.
 
Kanalua

Kanalua

Diamond Member
Jun 14, 2001
4,860
2
81
Originally posted by: Aegeon
Originally posted by: CPA
128K with 97% reporting. Ashland, Athens and Hamilton counties are really the only counties that aren't fully reported and they are all Republican leaning counties. I expect Bush to win with about 140K margin. Enough to possible squelch the talk about provisional ballots.
Click to expand...
This is false. Athens is heavily Kerry leaning so far. Lucas has also not fully counted, and leans substancially to Kerry.
Click to expand...

See my above post...
 
V

vskagentsmith

Member
Oct 28, 2004
49
0
0
Kerry's in the lead in Hawaii by 14,000 votes, no idea on the counting as far as what areas or percentage on how many are lfet to be counted.
 
B

BunLengthHotDog

Senior member
Feb 21, 2003
728
0
76
Originally posted by: Aegeon
Originally posted by: Abraxas
Doing some quick math here, Say Kerry is down by 100K with 250K outstanding. 100K of the 250 will have to go to just catching up, so he would need %40 just to break even with the gap now. That means 60% will still be left and Kerry would have to win half of that to get a lead, half of %60 is %30 plus the %40 needed to just catch up comes out to %70 even, or 175K.
Click to expand...
You're confusing me. If Kerry gets a lead, then he's outright ahead. I don't see where the 175k number is coming from.
Click to expand...


Aegeon, you have to consider that Kerry is already down 100,000 votes...if he gets 175,000 of the provisional votes, that means BUSH gets the other 75,000...he would need 71% to win

Lets make this simple :

Bush 100,000
Kerry 0

250,000 Provisional votes

Bush 75,000
Kerry 175,000

Totals :

Bush 175,000
Kerry 175,000

For Kerry to pull even (that with Bush ahead by 100,000...which is actually a low estimate) he would have to get 709% of the provisional votes
 
E

Emveach

Senior member
Feb 3, 2003
319
0
0
Originally posted by: vskagentsmith
Kerry's in the lead in Hawaii by 14,000 votes, no idea on the counting as far as what areas or percentage on how many are lfet to be counted.
Click to expand...

Hawaii race for President 1 of 353 precincts - 0 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 69,298 - 55 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 55,372 - 44 percent
David Cobb Grn 473 - 0 percent
Michael Badnarik Lib 357 - 0 percent
 
CPA

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
Originally posted by: Aegeon
Originally posted by: CPA
128K with 97% reporting. Ashland, Athens and Hamilton counties are really the only counties that aren't fully reported and they are all Republican leaning counties. I expect Bush to win with about 140K margin. Enough to possible squelch the talk about provisional ballots.
Click to expand...
This is false. Athens is heavily Kerry leaning so far. Lucas has also not fully counted, and leans substancially to Kerry.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry, you are right. It's late and all the numbers are starting to look the same :p Lucas county is 95% reported. Hamilton is 75% reported. Net to Bush on those two.
 
GoPackGo

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,513
580
126
edwards giving a speech now...kerry doesnt even have the guts to go out.
 
Abraxas

Abraxas

Golden Member
Oct 26, 2004
1,056
0
0
Originally posted by: Aegeon
Originally posted by: Abraxas
Doing some quick math here, Say Kerry is down by 100K with 250K outstanding. 100K of the 250 will have to go to just catching up, so he would need %40 just to break even with the gap now. That means 60% will still be left and Kerry would have to win half of that to get a lead, half of %60 is %30 plus the %40 needed to just catch up comes out to %70 even, or 175K.
Click to expand...
You're confusing me. If Kerry gets a lead, then he's outright ahead. I don't see where the 175k number is coming from.
Click to expand...

Alright,

Kerry has 100,000 less votes than Bush before the outstanding ballots are counted. If we assume those outstanding ballots number 250,000 then we have a place to start from.

In order to close the gap of 100,000 that exists before we take into account the outstanding ballots, one hundred thousand of the 250,000 need to be subtracted to cover that. 100,000 is %40 of 250,000.

Then, in order to gain a lead, he would have to get more than half of the remaining 150,000 ballots. Half is 75,000, or 30% of the original total.

In sum then, he would have to get enough votes to make up the deficit from tonight and then get more than half the rest, those numbers being 100K and 75K respectively. Those added together are what he would have to get to break exactly even with Bush, ignoring third parties, and they add up to 175,000.
 
V

vskagentsmith

Member
Oct 28, 2004
49
0
0
Well, I think I'm done keeping tabs on the board, I've got class this morning, need to get in what little sleep I can... I guess there's a glimpse of hope for Kerry, but.... Oh hell, I don't know. Thanks goes out to everyone that kept the rest of us filled in on the going ons.
 
S

SuperTool

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
14,000
2
0
If It's obvious Kerry is gonna lose the popular vote, he should concede even if there is off chance he can win electoraly. I don't want a democrat to be president without winning popular vote. Let republicans fall on their own sword,
 
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