Electoral Count (Bush 254 Kerry 242) (Ohio to Bush?)

[hdeck]

bush gaining in nevada again

 

[GoPackGo]

bush up by 121k again in ohio

edit 123k now

 

[BunLengthHotDog]

Kerry needs to concede OH if the counted votes are >100,000 in Bush's favor. Even if there ARE 250,000 provisional ballets (the Sec of State doesnt even know), Kerry would have to win close to 75% of those votes to win. Just concede and get it over with.

 

[CPA]

Hamilton County is only 75% reported. As I have said repeatedly, this county is Republican. Bush's lead will grow.

 

[Kanalua]

Very interesting election night....not as interesting as 2000. I also thought this elections debates were nowhere near as amusing/entertaining as Gore v. Bush...

 

[GoPackGo]

28k lead in NM with 93% reporting

 

[CPA]

Bush back to a 123K lead in Ohio and growing.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: BunLengthHotDog
Kerry needs to concede OH if the counted votes are >100,000 in Bush's favor. Even if there ARE 250,000 provisional ballets (the Sec of State doesnt even know), Kerry would have to win close to 75% of those votes to win. Just concede and get it over with.

Your math is off, its alot less than 75%. And obviously if its extremely close we get into recount territory.

 

[Kanalua]

Originally posted by: BunLengthHotDog
Kerry needs to concede OH if the counted votes are >100,000 in Bush's favor. Even if there ARE 250,000 provisional ballets (the Sec of State doesnt even know), Kerry would have to win close to 75% of those votes to win. Just concede and get it over with.

I doubt he will conceed...but he did say earlier today that he hopes the elections are decided tonight...

edit: if Kerry ends up losing Ohio and conceeds, I would honestly have a lot more respect for him than I've ever had...good to save the country from the debacle of 2000.

 

[Tylanner]

Kerry camp says they are winning in Ohio.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: BunLengthHotDog
Kerry needs to concede OH if the counted votes are >100,000 in Bush's favor. Even if there ARE 250,000 provisional ballets (the Sec of State doesnt even know), Kerry would have to win close to 75% of those votes to win. Just concede and get it over with.

True, but the S of S did say it was about 30% more than the 100k in 2000. Also, he believes a lot of them are a result of grassroots efforts of Evangelicals in Ohio, particulary becuase of the ban of gay marriage amendment that was up for a vote.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: BunLengthHotDog
Kerry needs to concede OH if the counted votes are >100,000 in Bush's favor. Even if there ARE 250,000 provisional ballets (the Sec of State doesnt even know), Kerry would have to win close to 75% of those votes to win. Just concede and get it over with.

Your math is off, its alot less than 75%. And obviously if its extremely close we get into recount territory.

Automatic recount is only if result is .25% difference. We won't see that. A recount will not be done.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: Tylanner
Kerry camp says they are winning in Ohio.

LOL.

 

[BunLengthHotDog]

Originally posted by: Aegeon
Your math is off, its alot less than 75%. And obviously if its extremely close we get into recount territory.

Kerry would have to get >= 70% of the provisional votes to tie or pull ahead. If Bush is ahead by 100,000 votes, and Kerry gets 70% of the provisional votes (lets say 250K to keep it simple) it would pretty much be dead even...so its 70%, not 75...thats not exactly ALOT less to me

 

[Kanalua]

Bush ahead in Iowa... http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/200...tes/IA/P/00/index.html

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: CPA
True, but the S of S did say it was about 30% more than the 100k in 2000. Also, he believes a lot of them are a result of grassroots efforts of Evangelicals in Ohio, particulary becuase of the ban of gay marriage amendment that was up for a vote.

Of course the last statement by the S of S could be full of crap. I thought I head some top official from Ohio say they may have double the number of provisional ballots of last election. The Democratic party thinks there are more out there than even that.

 

[CPA]

127K in Ohio now with 96% reporting.

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: CPA
127K in Ohio now with 96% reporting.

there is rumblings of a possible concession speech coming tonight from kerry.

really depends on how that last 4% goes in ohio

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: CPA
True, but the S of S did say it was about 30% more than the 100k in 2000. Also, he believes a lot of them are a result of grassroots efforts of Evangelicals in Ohio, particulary becuase of the ban of gay marriage amendment that was up for a vote.

Of course the last statement by the S of S could be full of crap. I thought I head some top official from Ohio say they may have double the number of provisional ballots of last election. The Democratic party thinks there are more out there than even that.

Could be, but I put more faith in the S of S who is part of the process, then outsiders. Even if it's double, it's only 200K. Kerry would need 3-1 to win. Oh, and don't forget Military votes have yet to be counted.

 

[Emveach]

If Kerry wins Ohio, and takes Wisconsin and Michigan as well, he'll have 268 votes. If Bush takes Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada..he'll be at 266.

That would make Hawaii the deciding factor with its 4 electoral ballots.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: CPA
127K in Ohio now with 96% reporting.

there is rumblings of a possible concession speech coming tonight from kerry.

really depends on how that last 4% goes in ohio

Good. I think it would turn off a lot of Independent voters to the Dems in the next election if this thing wound up in court again.

 

[BunLengthHotDog]

Judging by the counted vote so far, Kerry should concede....please don't make us wait another 11 days (hell, thats just when the START counting them) to find out who our next president is. Looks like GW to me

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Emveach
If Kerry wins Ohio, and takes Wisconsin and Michigan as well, he'll have 268 votes. If Bush takes Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada..he'll be at 266.

That would make Hawaii the deciding factor with its 4 electoral ballots.

While a couple poll might have suggested its close, realisticly Hawaii is going for Kerry. Its a safe Democratic state.

 

[Abraxas]

Doing some quick math here, Say Kerry is down by 100K with 250K outstanding. 100K of the 250 will have to go to just catching up, so he would need %40 just to break even with the gap now. That means 60% will still be left and Kerry would have to win half of that to get a lead, half of %60 is %30 plus the %40 needed to just catch up comes out to %70 even, or 175K.

 

[Kanalua]

Originally posted by: Emveach
If Kerry wins Ohio, and takes Wisconsin and Michigan as well, he'll have 268 votes. If Bush takes Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada..he'll be at 266.

That would make Hawaii the deciding factor with its 4 electoral ballots.

and that would be a Kerry victory (grew up in liberal Hawaii)