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Election predictions: Senate and House
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I think when it comes down to it, the Democrats won't win as much as they are projected to. There are a lot of really tight races within the margin of error, and I think many people will hit the voting booths and decide (like they did in 2004) to go with the "devil they know".
I think Democrats will win the House, but probably not by much. Senate is probably a tie at best, but more likely it will be something like 52-48 in favor of the Republicans.
Just my .02. I don't think polling accurately measures the strength of incumbency.
I think Democrats will win the House, but probably not by much. Senate is probably a tie at best, but more likely it will be something like 52-48 in favor of the Republicans.
Just my .02. I don't think polling accurately measures the strength of incumbency.
FrancesBeansRevenge
Platinum Member
I will go out on a limb and predict that a bunch of out-of-touch, self-interested a$$holes will be elected.
OneOfTheseDays
Diamond Member
You make some dumb assumptions assuming the Democratic party is MY party, but nobody expects better from you.
OneOfTheseDays
Diamond Member
Your equating the fact that I'm liberal/moderate on most of my views with being a Democrat, the two are not always interchangeable.
And your not in a position to call anybody a parrot.
imported_Lothar
Diamond Member
House (Rep : Dem)
212 : 223
Senate (Rep : Dem : Ind)
50 : 49 : 1
Democrats take the house, Republicans keep the Senate by 1 or 2 votes.
212 : 223
Senate (Rep : Dem : Ind)
50 : 49 : 1
Democrats take the house, Republicans keep the Senate by 1 or 2 votes.
AutumnRayne
Member
I see the Dems taking the house. I think it's a toss up for senate. Whoever takes it, I don't think it will be a landslide by any stretch of the imagination.
International Machine Consortium
Golden Member
BC is pretty temperate. I'd love to move there eventually.
imported_Lothar
Diamond Member
Fixed.
ProfJohn
Lifer
Michael Barone is now predicting a 1 seat majority for the Democrats.
If that is true then this election should be viewed as a huge defeat to the Democrats. With everything going their way (Republican scandal, daily news about Iraq, little press coverage of the economy etc) the fact that they may only win 1 seat is a big disappointment.
I am wondering what happens if the Democrat do NOT win the house. Is Dean tossed out on his ass? What about Pelosi?
Another interesting thing, apparently there is 1 Democrat who did not and may not vote Pelosi for speaker, if the house is 1 seat in Democratic favor and he votes that way again the Republican could actually control the house with 1 less member, what a strange event that would be.
Link
If that is true then this election should be viewed as a huge defeat to the Democrats. With everything going their way (Republican scandal, daily news about Iraq, little press coverage of the economy etc) the fact that they may only win 1 seat is a big disappointment.
I am wondering what happens if the Democrat do NOT win the house. Is Dean tossed out on his ass? What about Pelosi?
Another interesting thing, apparently there is 1 Democrat who did not and may not vote Pelosi for speaker, if the house is 1 seat in Democratic favor and he votes that way again the Republican could actually control the house with 1 less member, what a strange event that would be.
Link
International Machine Consortium
Golden Member
if if if
OneOfTheseDays
Diamond Member
All trend lines are going Democrats way. Independents will NOT be voting Republican by and large. GOTV for Republicans will NOT be as strong as in 04'. The evangelicals are disheartened and will stay at home. Nothing is looking good for the R's, and yet you still believe they will hold. Your partisanship and lack of objectivity shows clearly, stop posting.
JD50
Lifer
LOL, if you want all of the posters on this board that show clear partisanship and a lack of objectivity to stop posting then this board would be a ghost town. ProfJohn gets attacked for everything he posts, I'm not quite sure why people hate him so much, I don't believe I have ever seen him attack anyone personally.
I was doing some reading today, and a op-ed piece in the Washington Times of all places made a very interesting point about this election. Republicans seem to already be counting their chickens, assuming that the polls are as "faulty" as they were in 2004 and that they will maintain control with their "get out and vote" work. But here's the big problem, in 2004 the Republicans did an EXCELLENT job brining the more righty Americans to the voting booths, and it worked. But in the process they've managed to horribly piss off the center, Kerry got more moderates than Bush in 2004 and the intervening years have only made it worse. Meanwhile, the Dems are taking full advantage of this, doing far more than they did in 2004 to attract the moderate vote. But the Republicans, rather than courting the moderates as well, are operating in this fantasy world that there are plenty of untapped righties out there who can still be recruited. But the trick in 2004 of winning by courting the extremes rather than the middle is not likely to work again, for the simple reason that the extremes have ALREADY been drawn out and in the process even more moderates are being pushed away from the Republicans. The Republicans spent too much time listening to their own propaganda, they actually think there was some dramatic shift to the right in the last few years, and that victory can be achieved just by being "righty" enough. Frankly I think that strategy is going to bite them in the ass either this year or in 2008.
Well, he's certainly DIFFERENT from a lot of the other right-wingers here. Rather than simply ranting and raving about everyone hating America, he actually tries to make arguments and back them up with logic and facts. Needless to say, I disagree with a lot of what he says, but at least I respect his ability to make an argument that doesn't involve the word "traitor" every other sentence. Frankly I'm not sure why anyone needs to pick anyone to flame, but at least if lefties want to flame someone, folks like Pabster make excellent targets...no need to bash ProfJohn just because you disagree with him.
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