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Election prediction thread

IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Time to stop bitching and put up!

House goes Dem by the narrowest of margins, 220 seats to 215 (with an indie in there somewhere)

Senate stays Republican, 52-48

Trump wins in a landslide

In my fair state:
Ducey wins reelection in a landslide even though he's a douchebag.
All state-wide propositions fail.
 
Doesn't the sitting presidents party generally take a beating in the mid terms? I thought that was SOP? Regardless, I expect Trump hate to bring dems out in droves. Seems like the dems will take the house and senate.
 
For 2018: Dems take the House, Republicans hold the Senate but with relatively little difference.

For 2020... well, that's relatively far away, but I definitely wouldn't presume Trump is in line for another win. Even with Republican attempts to rig the elections, voter turnout to oppose him is likely to be high. I could see the Democrats taking it all if they have a decent presidential candidate and galvanize the vote.
 
Dems take the House, Repubs keep the Senate, but maybe a surprise loss by a Repub Senator who should've easily won.
EDIT: Dems make gains in the Governor races.
 
Ok seriously

230D/205R in the House.

50/50 in the Senate, which Pence will then control.

Trump does not win big, he doesn't even run 😀

Results, the Dems rule over the House and anything they want they get. Senate is on a knife's edge and every single issue cannot afford two Republicans to side with Dems.

Consequences? Lots of investigations about the WH and probably Congressional figures, likely impeachment. Removal by the Senate remains problematic as does any Republican agenda.
 
soundforbjt said:
Dems take the House, Repubs keep the Senate, but maybe a surprise loss by a Repub Senator who should've easily won.
Click to expand...

I'll say this: if that surprise loss happens and it's someone like Cruz, the Republicans will panic. You know the party will have screwed up if a major senator from Texas loses his "safe" seat.
 
+40 Dem House, 50-50 Senate, +9 Dem governorships

However, pick a number 1-6 on a die and roll it. Did you get it? That's GOP majority House.
 
I'm not going down this road again. Americans have a funny way of disappointing me.

I will say that higher turnout in general usually means an advantage for Democrats. Anecdotally, based on posts on this forum, alot of the races will be close based on people saying that yard signs have been a mix of Democrat and Republican.
Republicans, at least in my state, seem to be going with super negative ads and I don't recall that ever working (unless it was ultra specific).
 
Won't predict other than record turnouts for a midterm with the biggest increase being those who have only recently become old enough to vote...

I will predict MJ legalization and Gerrymandering ending pass in Michigan...
 
Greenman said:
Doesn't the sitting presidents party generally take a beating in the mid terms? I thought that was SOP? Regardless, I expect Trump hate to bring dems out in droves. Seems like the dems will take the house and senate.
Click to expand...

Besides likes and dislikes the Dems have more seats at risk while Reps have fewer races to run. That put Dems at a great disadvantage which would normally mean the status quo in terms of control.
 
Unprecedented and aggregious election hacking by Russians. Literally changing votes or entering extra votes (I think the "dry run" was the county in Georgia where the number of ballots cast was almost 2x the number of registered voters). Votes will be tampered with and registered D voters will be turned away in droves. Districts where minority voters are likely to go will have polling locations closed late Monday night for reasons like "maintenance" or "gas leaks".

"Safe blue seats" will inexplicably and unverifiably turn red.

Oh, not that kind of prediction. My bar. Carry on.
 
ivwshane said:
I'm not going down this road again. Americans have a funny way of disappointing me.

I will say that higher turnout in general usually means an advantage for Democrats. Anecdotally, based on posts on this forum, alot of the races will be close based on people saying that yard signs have been a mix of Democrat and Republican.
Republicans, at least in my state, seem to be going with super negative ads and I don't recall that ever working (unless it was ultra specific).
Click to expand...

Dems have better odds this time. There was too much hubris in 2016 but that mistake is not being repeated this time around.
 
soundforbjt said:
Oh, I definitely agree with the bolded, Dems always talk a good game, but Repubs are the most reliable voters in the midterms.
Click to expand...

Well now someone will give me shit. Dems were awful in 2016. "Look at our platform"! and getting upset when the public didn't live up to their expectations. It was pretty much everyone else's fault because the public needed to come to the Dems, not the reverse.

Again, not this time. They have climbed off of pedestals and platforms and up onto podiums and met people. That's why Beto has a chance when he should have been crushed. He engaged people at a personal level.

Please, please Dems, stick to Beto types in 2020
 
My Prediction. Republicans scream about fraud when they lose the house. Democrats pray and pray to take the Senate and the night ends in sadness for them. Many get drunk and don't go to work Wednesday. The rest of the world shakes our heads and chuckle to ourselves.
 
umbrella39 said:
...and Gerrymandering ending...
Click to expand...

If some sort of legislation is passed which prevents this how screwed are the Republicans? Would it affect them greatly or would it not have much effect?

What would the Democrats need to take to end gerrymandering and sort out some proper rights to vote?
 
Hayabusa Rider said:
Dems have better odds this time. There was too much hubris in 2016 but that mistake is not being repeated this time around.
Click to expand...

If there's a systemic polling error in favor of the GOP, it's going to be a disaster for Democrats. Polls are showing 8-9 points ahead, but Democrats can't take much lower than that without getting sweeped.
 
Hayabusa Rider said:
Dems have better odds this time. There was too much hubris in 2016 but that mistake is not being repeated this time around.
Click to expand...

Hubris is false attribution as to the cause. The GOP doesn't have Hillary to kick around so the whole dynamic changes. The one thing I'm sure of is that Dems aren't staying home or voting third party. I'm also sure that a lot of people who were willing to take a chance on Trump realize that they rolled snake eyes.

I see Dems as the winners. How big remains to be seen.
 
WelshBloke said:
If some sort of legislation is passed which prevents this how screwed are the Republicans? Would it affect them greatly or would it not have much effect?

What would the Democrats need to take to end gerrymandering and sort out some proper rights to vote?
Click to expand...

We need to win ballot initiatives like in Michigan & to win statehouses in 2020 to control reapportionment after the census. If not, the GOP will gerrymander honest representation into oblivion. The big data & computer algorithm tools at their disposal are much more powerful than back in 2010.
 
Greenman said:
Doesn't the sitting presidents party generally take a beating in the mid terms? I thought that was SOP? Regardless, I expect Trump hate to bring dems out in droves. Seems like the dems will take the house and senate.
Click to expand...
That is my fervent hope. I am predicting nothing.

The young and female are the wiser voters. Vote! If you are male, think young. If you are male, you don't have to act or look like a female but you must be able to think like one.
 
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I think its rigged.. R keeps both the house and senate due to "faulty" voting equipment, voter suppression and other anti democratic tricks that R is licensing from Russia. Your democracy is over come tuesday.
 
Fanatical Meat said:
Still no D organization other than not Trump

Sadly I predict no house control by 2, same with Senate
Click to expand...

Probably this...

There really isn't even a not Trump organization with the D's... nope. The plan has been to give Trump and the GOP enough rope to hang themselves without a firm and unified voice to rebuke all the bullshit this past two years... perhaps a Bizzaro Trump Twitter account that replies to every lie he makes with facts. One that isn't just sitting on their hands waiting for 2 years to go by. Sadly the only solution to cleaning up the shit someone else left you is to end up stinking like shit later on... Ineffectual cucks the D's are right now...
 
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