Those sums only add up if TSMC isn't spending anything at all on unrelated R&D and only throw out a single process every 2.5 - 3 years.But it *is* billions of dollars.
TSMC is spending 1.4 billion dollars in R&D alone in 2012, up from 1.1 billion in 2010. But this number doesn't tell the whole story. As node takes 4-5 years in the R&D pipeline, it's safe to say that the next future node will cost at least 3x the amount of money of the current R&D expenditure. 20nm Should cost TSMC some 3-3.5 billion, 16nm will cost some 4 billion.
Underlining my point, CAPEX isn't R&D and should not be thrown into the same pot. But it is a much more valuable number to compare.But R&D alone doesn't mean anything, the retooling of the factory is also important, and here comes the Rock's law. "The cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles every four years". Meaning your CAPEX double every four years. This is what crushed AMD in 2009 and this is what keep SMIC, UMC, IBM and others from competing with TSMC, Intel and Samsung for the bleeding edge node. Even if they had the R&D, they cannot afford the fabs.
So in order to research 20nm *and* build a single factory with significant capacity you need some 12 billion dollars, spread around 4-5 years. TSMC current CAPEX is 9 billion dollars, or more than the entire GLF investment alone.
No specific answers to that, mostly because I know nothing about foreign accounting laws.Do you mind describing those accounting tricks? I have a professional interest in them.
R&D wouldn't be my first choice if I were to make an *cof* accounting trick *cof*, because the rules bounding the line are too rigid and it tends to be highly scrutinized.
But just take a step back and look at current R&D spendings by the whole industry (doesn't apply to just this industry). Take away inflation, raises and a bit more and you still end up with massive increases in R&D spending that can be tough to explain with the amount of new 'highly skilled human resources' those companies seem to find. Also, some (mostly swiss) companies literally went bonkers in R&D spending a few years ago with barely any rampup time and no visible explanation. That triggered my alarm.
Thanks for the input. In this case I'm just standing in a distance, looking at numbers and doing educated guesses. What I noticed (and tried to convey) is that some people seem to shift R&D spending of companies to whatever argument they are fighting over without even a basic plausibility check (no offence, mrmt).I don't think you understand how a new node is developed, which is probably why you can't believe the numbers.
My piece of the process development pie alone, just one little process development engineer, was roughly $8m/year for the fab work. Then there are the ex-fab costs, for example I had a $2m NSF federal grant that required dollar-for-dollar matching from TI over just 2yrs.
And I was just one engineer; I worked with literally hundreds of other engineers who all had to be equally resourced to get their job done. And even then, getting the job "done" was a four year journey for each node, longer still if you got into the path-finding research (like the NSF grant).
I did work with the R&D department of a small-ish company (~20.000 employees) until about 3 years ago. The company was mostly focused on a single product, but R&D were still churning out lots of unrelated projects. That shouldn't be something foreign to TSMC (and most certainly not Intel, IBM or for that matter TI) and can be a formidable money sink.
I would word it this way: They develop production worthy tools for predefined processes.You mention tool vendors; I stand with my mouth open in aghast if you think tool vendors develop production worthy processes with their tools.
I get the impression that you rate the market harder than it is. Basic economics would make you believe that all markets will shrink to a monopoly, when in reality many markets stabilize or fade from relevance at some point before a monopoly happens.You don't get anything for nothing, if you think you are getting something for nothing then you are getting the wool pulled over your eyes. That is true in every industry, not just semiconductors.
There is a reason so many companies choose to be fabless. And the trend is decidedly uni-directional.
edit: holy cow, what a long post