EDIT: Energy Apocalypse Day within the next decade?

[charrison]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Is everyone simply ignoring my caculations?

charrison, most links state that 1,000 barrels per day is about the limit the plant can do. Look at the caculations. It will show why TD plants will never be more than an ameroliate.

when your calculations are based on bad input, they should be ignored.


linkage

How big will future plants be?
Future plant size will depend on the volume of source material available.

It does not sound like scalling will be an issue.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Is everyone simply ignoring my caculations?

charrison, most links state that 1,000 barrels per day is about the limit the plant can do. Look at the caculations. It will show why TD plants will never be more than an ameroliate.

That's ignoring the number of these plants than can be built. There's absolutely no reason thousands can't be built per year once the kinks in the technology is worked out and they license the technology. The 1,000 barrels per day as a limit for plants in general is ignoring the evidence. This was the first plant built on a commercial basis, and they deliberately kept it somewhat small to mitigate risks. There is absolutely no reason they can't be scaled to be far larger. In fact, I don't know if the average size of a plant will eventually be significantly larger than a capacity of 1,000 barrels per day. By the way, when dealing with items such as used tires, a similarly sized plant should be producing far more oil.

 

[rickn]

with the direction this world is heading, in all likelyhood there will be a massive population reduction in the next 30-35yrs. I hope I'm one of the ones who doesn't survive it, cuz it will be hell

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: rickn
with the direction this world is heading, in all likelyhood there will be a massive population reduction in the next 30-35yrs. I hope I'm one of the ones who doesn't survive it, cuz it will be hell

Actually according to current models, the world population is going to start to contract in that timeframe. As the population becomes more modern, they have fewer kids.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: rickn
with the direction this world is heading, in all likelyhood there will be a massive population reduction in the next 30-35yrs. I hope I'm one of the ones who doesn't survive it, cuz it will be hell

Actually according to current models, the world population is going to start to contract in that timeframe. As the population becomes more modern, they have fewer kids.

minus the doomsday scenarios. Men will some day be instinct

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: rickn

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: rickn
with the direction this world is heading, in all likelyhood there will be a massive population reduction in the next 30-35yrs. I hope I'm one of the ones who doesn't survive it, cuz it will be hell

Actually according to current models, the world population is going to start to contract in that timeframe. As the population becomes more modern, they have fewer kids.

minus the doomsday scenarios. Men will some day be instinct

Possible, but doubtful. We have adapted and survived where many other species failed.

 

[Engineer]

Power plant to furnish power to 55,000 homes runs off of 90% turkey droppings.

 

[burnedout]

Railroads making a comeback because of fuel costs:

The Morning Call - Allentown, PA

[...]

Analysts following the railroad industry say trains will continue to win back market share from the trucking industry in 2005 as it has done for most of this year. That's partly because trains are three times more fuel-efficient than trucks. One train can carry the equivalent load of 280 trucks with only a two-person crew, White said. . . . .

 

[alent1234]

i was watching CNBC this morning and they said the price of oil was expected to fall to around $30 a barrel in 2005. Do they know something that others don't

 

[0marTheZealot]

Good question...

I don't see oil falling to $30. Hell, next year is supposed to be even tighter because of decline from key states (Oman, Indonesia, Venezula, Mexico, the US of course, Iraq if exports don't rise) and demand from the US and China are supposed to skyrocket.

Remember 6 million barrels of oil is coming online next year, but output will only increase by 3 million barrels. We are offsetting decline.

 

[StageLeft]

Unfortunately the SUV loving clowns who refer back, time and time again to the wolf-crying of the 70's will refuse to believe that the oil will ever run out.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: alent1234
i was watching CNBC this morning and they said the price of oil was expected to fall to around $30 a barrel in 2005. Do they know something that others don't

Oil was at 46.50 this morning, up from $41.xx about 2 weeks ago. Yukos, the giant Russian oil company, was sold for $9 Billion this weekend, so we'll see how that shakes out.

Also, Al-Qaeda has told it's fighters to attack Saudi oil infastructure. Fear + oil = higher prices.


Edit: Oil prices have dipped today to $45.05, down $1.23. FYI.

 

[piasabird]

Well they can start with a Luxury Tax for all SUV's.

Putting some size limits on cars is a good idea. We should be rewarding high milage cars with a tax credit or something similar to how the feds give you extra money when you install Solar panels.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: piasabird
Well they can start with a Luxury Tax for all SUV's.

Putting some size limits on cars is a good idea. We should be rewarding high milage cars with a tax credit or something similar to how the feds give you extra money when you install Solar panels.

LOL....sorry, but that's almost funny. From what I've read, there are people who are looking at replacing the current gas tax with a mileage tax because of the smaller cars use much less gas and travel many more miles on that same gas. May not pass, but the people who want this seem to be rewarding the SUV owners. A gas-hog tax would be nice though.

 

[ReiAyanami]

Possible, but doubtful. We have adapted and survived where many other species failed.

yes, the supremacy of our hubris shall save us. we can destroy the world 4.5 times over now, down from 6 times in the cold war era. that gives us a whole 1.5 earths to spare!!


dinosaurs: 250 million years
humans: 1 million or less

i think the energy problem might be able to be solved, but its really our dependence on oil's other derivatives (PLASTIC PLASTIC PLASTIC)

however a 50% rise in the demand for oil in 2 decades from 80Mbpd to 120Mbpd is daunting for the shortterm. enough to spark a World War over resources, time to pull out our spare 1.5 earths

 

[0marTheZealot]

Man invents pretty shiny things and thinks he is the master of the universe. We will go extinct and it will be gone sooner than we all think.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: phantom309

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/C4Transcript.htm

One of the best quotes here

"I wouldn?t put a one percent. If it turned out that some miracle happened and we discovered some phenomenal fields that have defied discovery for the last 40 years, it?s Ð you can?t, you can never take a forecast and say that?s an impossibility. 2020 I could be living on the moon; I don?t think I?m going to. I would actually say that the probability of me living on the moon is higher odds than Saudi Arabia producing 22 million barrels a day."

-Matthew Simmons

Basically what he's saying is that we've already found and extracted most of the easy (read cheap) oil. Anything we find right now will probably be expensive and hard to pump. So while production increases, prices will paradoxically also increase. If it costs $30 dollars to pump a barrel of oil in deepwaters, it is no use selling that oil at $25 or $30. High oil prices are here to stay.

Congratulations. You've discovered the real reason we invaded Iraq.

:thumbsup:

Also, one of hte water bodies near Afganastan was supposed to have lots o' oil. Testing of hte locations found that only 20% of the expected reserve actually existed. Oh, the US gov't doesn't talk much about this.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
USGS says we have 35 years of oil left. BPL says we got 30 years.

the world using up 80,000,000 barrels every single day, and its rising even faster so we might only have 25 yrs or 15.

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

A book Iread said that we have 50 years of oil left. The problem is that production will slope off starting now. Barrels/day will actually drop as existing oil fields get tapped out. Even if Saudi Arabie increases oil production, other oils wells are goingto be running dry.

Solar panels are hte only technology we have that can save us, and advancements are being made. Just preay that we start moving to this tech soon.

Actually, they project that solar panel sales will increase by 1000% annually in 10 years. Meaning if 10,000 panels are made this year, in 2014, they proiject 100,000 panels produced per year.

We're moving in hte right direction, just very slowly.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: burnedout
Railroads making a comeback because of fuel costs:

The Morning Call - Allentown, PA

[...]

Analysts following the railroad industry say trains will continue to win back market share from the trucking industry in 2005 as it has done for most of this year. That's partly because trains are three times more fuel-efficient than trucks. One train can carry the equivalent load of 280 trucks with only a two-person crew, White said. . . . .

I was theorizing this. IMHO, i nthe future, the trucking industry will be reduced to local deliveries. long distance will rely on the railroads and bio-diesel, especially in the post oil world.

 

[0marTheZealot]

http://www.odac-info.org/bulle...rojRelease16-11-04.pdf
http://www.peakoil.net/Publica...ALITY_AND_ILLUSION.pdf
http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Campbell_02-3.pdf
http://www.odac-info.org/asses...rojectionsdisputed.pdf
http://www.tekno.dk/subpage.ph...age=uk&category=11

Some late night readings!

 

[0marTheZealot]

2-27-05 EDIT:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/archive...am%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

No shit, because the equations have no plugins for a finite resource that is dwindling.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
2-27-05 EDIT:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/archive...am%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

No shit, because the equations have no plugins for a finite resource that is dwindling.

bad link...

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
2-27-05 EDIT:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/archive...am%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

No shit, because the equations have no plugins for a finite resource that is dwindling.

bad link...

Click me! (must sign in to read it all)

Oil price surge defies forecasters
Even investors aren't factoring in $50 crude
By Lisa Sanders, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Feb. 26, 2005



DALLAS (MarketWatch) - As crude-oil futures climbed above $51 a barrel this week, analysts threw up their hands and wondered why.

"None of the historical correlations analysts have used - inventories primarily for oil, storage for natural gas, natural-gas and oil prices for rig counts -- work," said Jim Wicklund, managing director of energy research at Banc of America Securities....

 

[0marTheZealot]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
2-27-05 EDIT:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/archive...am%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

No shit, because the equations have no plugins for a finite resource that is dwindling.

bad link...

Worked a few times I clicked it lol. Thanks Engineer!

 

[OS]

taken from above article;

"This time is different than other times," Adkins said. "We've always had an oil bubble in our existence, where there was more supply capacity than demand, and that's essentially not the case anymore."