EDIT: Energy Apocalypse Day within the next decade?

[dannybin1742]

a good book on this sort of oil shortage stuff is

"the end of oil"

very nicely written book, expalins why our gov. estimates are wrong, talks about why the oil industry will eventually come to a screaching half

this is essentially the problem with the oil industry

1) they must increase production every year to satisfy the demand and the increase in demand, year per year (which is going up faster and faster every year)
2) oil is a finite natural resource

 

[0marTheZealot]

Richard Heinburg's book is a pretty good start if you need the basics.

 

[alent1234]

so i guess everyone knows oil is a finite resource but doesn't want to face the reality? Does this mean all those smart people with fancy degrees and a lot of money invested in oil are in denial and will lose big one day.

This reminds me of Angels and Demons that I just read. Supposedl the Illuminati were omnipotent and too smart for everyone. There was this secret way to find them and the premise was that all the intelligent people in the catholic church and other organizatons were too dumb to follow the clues.

 

[0marTheZealot]

au contraire, I think those who are heavily invested in oil and oil companies will win big and the real losers will be the average person in the street who can't afford 10 dollar gas, or get a job or feed himself.

 

[StageLeft]

OK it's obviously running out. Gas prices may spike up and down for a while, but I don't think we'll again be buying gas for $.99/gallon like we were three years ago. On the long term oil will continue to rise in price. The US is using more of it every day, and china and india are really getting in on the action too.

If it becomes a big problem in five years we've got a problem, Houston, but if it fairly gradually gets more costly over a couple of decades (I know it's sky rocketed in the last year, but that's since slowed down and it won't continue flying up at that rate forever) I think we'll be able to introduce alternative energy sources, of which there are many.

Nuclear power is one. Electric cars did fail for a couple of reasons: 1) why do you need one with cheap gas? 2) batteries sucked. Battery technology gets better, albeit slowly, but it's still getting better. In regards to point 1) If gas is costing $5/gallon people may be more willing to deal with a limited range and annoying use of electric cars. Hyrdogen is another. It sucks now, but only because it sucks compared to oil. Then you've got wind and fuel cells, dams etc. Getting electricy is easy enough, but there has just not been a motivation in the past to run our cars on it, because oil has been too cheap.

Of course what we're seeing increasingly now is the availability of vehicles that are better on gas (although on average they're getting worse over time, we see more hyrbids).

 

[KMurphy]

Omar, you have some really great input. You almost sound like an oil industry insider.

The real problem is not oil running out. There are other sources of energy easy to get to and refine into the consumables we use so prolifically today; plastic, lubricants (anything not metal, glass or wood basically). The US has huge coal reserves, huge shale deposits and still a lot of unexplored territory for NG and crude. Coal and shale can be refined into basic chemicals like oil, but a little more expensive.

The difficulty is how we have modeled our society on predominantly one resource for energy and consumables. Vast amounts of capital have been expended for the distribution, refining and infrastructure of hydrocarbons. This is required to supply the masses.

New infrastructure for the next "renewable source" will take huge amounts of capital and a long time to develop into a feasible solution for the masses. As long as oil and hydrocarbons remain relatively cheap, very little infrastructure work will be done to make way for the new energy source without significant governmental stipends.

OPEC is firmly in control of prices; if they sense a feasible alternative gain ground, they flood the market with oil making it cheaper. This makes any long term investment in renewables unattractive.

If we do go into a noticable decline where OPEC can't raise production rates, then coal would fill the gap temporarily. The developed world has imposed serious environmental regulations on the use of coal for energy which raises the cost of its use. Developing countries have no such regulations controling their main energy source. Whatever is cheaper is what they'll use.

This puts developed countries at a huge disadvantage economically; as seen with "offshoring" manual labor and such. It will get much worse when oil production declines for real.

My question is what is the solution to lack of infrastructure? Think about what exists today for completing the oil cycle from crude in the ground to baby diapers. The infrastruture is monumental. There is nothing cheap or easy to replace it. That's why the next energy source will closely resemble the hydrocarbons of today; utilize existing infrastructure.

I won't go into the current niche alternative energy sources because none are feasible for the masses. The only one that comes close is hydro-generation; and that is only for energy. Approximatley 30% of crude oil consumed today is used for non-energy products.

I'm interested to read more of your discussions Omar.

 

[0marTheZealot]

http://www.energybulletin.net/4740.html...ESSID=4514047eb46caf663b02ae8a62917e15

The Long Finger of Oil. A great article in my opinion.

 

[DragonMasterAlex]

Why does everything have to be DoomsDay? Can't we have like "Apocalypse day" or "wasteland day" or something? I'm tired of DoomsDay, it's getting boring.

Jason

 

[0marTheZealot]

Originally posted by: DragonMasterAlex
Why does everything have to be DoomsDay? Can't we have like "Apocalypse day" or "wasteland day" or something? I'm tired of DoomsDay, it's getting boring.

Jason

lol I was just quoting an article but I'll change it to Apocalypse Day just for you

 

[DragonMasterAlex]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot

Originally posted by: DragonMasterAlex
Why does everything have to be DoomsDay? Can't we have like "Apocalypse day" or "wasteland day" or something? I'm tired of DoomsDay, it's getting boring.

Jason

lol I was just quoting an article but I'll change it to Apocalypse Day just for you

Holy schitt that was the fastest response I have ever seen! Thanks for the consideration, LOL!

Jason

 

[0marTheZealot]

Originally posted by: DragonMasterAlex

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot

Originally posted by: DragonMasterAlex
Why does everything have to be DoomsDay? Can't we have like "Apocalypse day" or "wasteland day" or something? I'm tired of DoomsDay, it's getting boring.

Jason

lol I was just quoting an article but I'll change it to Apocalypse Day just for you

Holy schitt that was the fastest response I have ever seen! Thanks for the consideration, LOL!

Jason

No problemo!

 

[KMurphy]

Oil will not really run out. What will happen is that it becomes so expensive to obtain that the global economy will collapse.

This is why national petroleum reserves are a top priority for all the developed and developing nations of the planet. When the global economy is in the death throws of collapse, wars will begin over easily accessible oil. The goal is to have enough oil reserves to outlast all other countries for defense.

Coal will be a temporary stop-gap solution.

When oil/coal production finally ceases, the global population will plummet. Today's population numbers are only achievable through the pervasive use of oil.

The remaining global population will revert back to the bronze age standard of living.

This scenario will play out unless effective methods of plastic/oil recycling are implemented AND a renewable source of transportation fuel is developed. Please note that battery powered cars are not an effective solution. All they do is move the fuel burning portion of the equation to the utility generators; and batteries suck.

There has not been one feasible (for the masses) solution for renewable transportation fuel proposed to date.

 

[Tylanner]

No, not in this decade..

 

[Trevelyan]

I would think that we'll start seeing a lot of the effects around 2008... it is fastly approaching.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: KMurphy
When oil/coal production finally ceases, the global population will plummet. Today's population numbers are only achievable through the pervasive use of oil.

The remaining global population will revert back to the bronze age standard of living.

If enough money were put into nuclear fusion research, we might have usable reactors within twenty years, and our dependence on oil would be greatly reduced.

 

[0marTheZealot]

Originally posted by: Tylanner
No, not in this decade..

ExxonMobil has all but admitted that the Peak will occur before 2010. Most industry experts have good reason to say that the Peak will occur before the end of this decade.