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Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Yes, lets us all climb on the blame Dave bandwagon. After all, the Greeks used to kill the bearers of bad news. And if only Dave would shut up the recession that is already happening
would vanish. And then the GWB borrow 3.2 trillion will suddenly become infinitely sustainable.

So please Dave shut up. I do so very much want to believe that I too can touch hot stoves and not get burned.
 

brxndxn

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2001
8,475
0
76
We are in a recession and we have been for some while now..

The stock market is falling - even with interest rates being lowered.. The housing market is in complete collapse. The purchasing power of the dollar is diminishing. The middle class is struggling. The banks are at negative equity - according to the Federal Reserve's own reports.

I don't believe a new bubble will fix this one.. Though, I would love to know whatever the next bubble is supposed to be.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Originally posted by: blackangst1
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Even a blind squirrel can occassionally find a nut, Dave.

And you were only off by 6 years. No doubt economists will soon be knocking down your door looking for advice.

and SOMEDAY we'll have $5 gas too. Then we'll see the "I TOLD YOU SO!" thread :laugh:

No, honestly, an "I told you so" thread would be too late. I and many others who have spoke out about it, will be in the same position as you. So "I told you so" wouldn't help at all.

The arrogance to think "it won't/can't happen here" is so undeniably naive that you must ignore history in order to believe such a way. Empires have fallen in many past societies because they had gotten too big, inflated their money supply, and tried to save the empire through military conquest. Rome history may shed some light on that subject.
Typical straw man. Claiming in the past that "We are not in a recession yet." != "It will never happen." We weren't in a recession previously. Officially, we still aren't.

To provide a parallel to someone like Dave it's like claiming right now that everything is great and six years later, if everything is great, going "See. I told you so."

Not even a nice try.

There is nothing indicating things will be great in six years.


 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Skoorb
My God, I really thought I'd never see it. Another thread where Dave, the resident liberal whacko conspiracy theorist posts a thread touting his abilities of prediction and trying to rub in the faces of everyone else how they were wrong and he told them so years ago. This is definitely a first.

There has been talking of a housing bubble for years on CNN money and elsewhere so all you've really done is confirmed that you read that years ago just like most of us did.

What you fail to admit is that I posted evidence of this before anything was ever written and for many years was the only one writing about in here and getting blasted by the **** in here that is was not happening and never would happen.
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Yes, lets us all climb on the blame Dave bandwagon. After all, the Greeks used to kill the bearers of bad news. And if only Dave would shut up the recession that is already happening
would vanish. And then the GWB borrow 3.2 trillion will suddenly become infinitely sustainable.

So please Dave shut up. I do so very much want to believe that I too can touch hot stoves and not get burned.

:roll:

This isn't about Dave, except for the fact that he constantly bleats about impending doom and when ANYTHING remotely suggests it - he claims he was right.

But, if you took your idea and replaced dave with the MSM you'd almost be right to a point. The MSM has been running with this "recession" DOOM!!!! DOOM!!! which is nothing more than sensationalism which gets people to start believing things are worse than they actually are. I own a home, and it's value has dropped a tad(from it's peak) but that doesn't affect my day to day finances - nor should it affect most home owners. So you lost a bit of paper value due to the market. So? Unless you were one of the people who made the poor decision to buy more than you could afford then you should be alright during this latest "crisis". As to this "recession that is already happening" - that has yet to be shown the case but the more you people whine and the more the media plays it up - guess what - the greater chance it has to happen because people start buying into the hype.
Friggin sheep...
 
Oct 30, 2004
11,442
32
91
Originally posted by: brxndxn
We are in a recession and we have been for some while now..

The stock market is falling - even with interest rates being lowered.. The housing market is in complete collapse. The purchasing power of the dollar is diminishing. The middle class is struggling. The banks are at negative equity - according to the Federal Reserve's own reports.

Recession? Depression? Nah! Those are just the claims of malcontents. Our nation's economy is strong and getting stronger! It's good and getting goodah! Our economy is doing so well that we even have lots of job openings in fields like waitressing, bartending, cashiering, and retail! Did I mention that we might soon have new job openings for bankruptcy attorneys and foreclosure specialists?

<Sarcasm mode off>

The nation's job market has been in a recession if not a depression for years, especially when you consider that we need about 150,000 solid new jobs each month merely to keep pace with population growth. (So, when the media and politicians gush over the creation of 60,000 jobs in a given month, the nation actually lost 90,000 jobs relative to its population growth. When they lament a month where 17,000 job losses were reported, the nation lost 167,000 jobs relative to population growth--but the media and politicians don't dare mention that.) It makes sense that we would have these problems to people who understand the economics of global labor arbitrage.

Here's a link to a list of links of commentary on the nation's job market and the monthly employment figures:

http://outsourcing.yuku.com/topic/366

 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Crying wolf day after day year after year does not allow you to say "see, I was right all along" when the wolf finally does appear. Some of us were actually trying to prepare rather than just spread irrational panic that leads to apathy.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,486
0
0
Nice to see Dave back in a couple of thread, flinging insults at all of P&N, claiming to have seen the future, whining about his dismal life again. Guy gets laid off more than a $2 whore.

I predict there will be ANOTHER recession after this one!!!!! :shocked:

Oh for the record I think I said about 2-3 months ago we'd go through a mild recession. I'll have to dig up the thread...

edit: here it is, 11/28/2007.
"The economy is doing fairly well, given the market conditions. I think we are headed for another recession as part of the normal business cycle + the additive effects of the mortgage mess. "
 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
13,136
1
0
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Even a blind squirrel can occassionally find a nut, Dave.

And you were only off by 6 years. No doubt economists will soon be knocking down your door looking for advice.

You mean those same economists who were predicting the housing bubble would burst for going on 5 years now? Yeah, those guys NEED some advice.

EDIT: Since Alchemize is making predictions, let me get on record here. I predict that the crappy economy will struggle along through 2008, thereby convincing voters to vote Democrat, since obviously the Republicans in charge did all of this. Then, in early 2009, the economy will roar back to life on its own and the Dems will take credit even though they've only been in the White House for less than a few months.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
The myth here is that this is just a normal business cycle recession. When it sure look to me like a slow downward slide, where each subsequent high will be lower than the previous high as the normal business cycle of boom and bust still operates but on a descending slope instead of a level playing field.

The current economy is only sustained by adding debt, while US manufacturing, which pays for it all, has declined greatly in the last seven years. The last recent figure I heard is that manufacturing is only 10% of our economy now.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
22,902
2,360
126
How many reseccions have we had? We'll be fine.

And I have a prediction: The world as we know it will end.

Someday. Just you wait.
 
Sep 12, 2004
16,852
59
86
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Originally posted by: blackangst1
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Even a blind squirrel can occassionally find a nut, Dave.

And you were only off by 6 years. No doubt economists will soon be knocking down your door looking for advice.

and SOMEDAY we'll have $5 gas too. Then we'll see the "I TOLD YOU SO!" thread :laugh:

No, honestly, an "I told you so" thread would be too late. I and many others who have spoke out about it, will be in the same position as you. So "I told you so" wouldn't help at all.

The arrogance to think "it won't/can't happen here" is so undeniably naive that you must ignore history in order to believe such a way. Empires have fallen in many past societies because they had gotten too big, inflated their money supply, and tried to save the empire through military conquest. Rome history may shed some light on that subject.
Typical straw man. Claiming in the past that "We are not in a recession yet." != "It will never happen." We weren't in a recession previously. Officially, we still aren't.

To provide a parallel to someone like Dave it's like claiming right now that everything is great and six years later, if everything is great, going "See. I told you so."

Not even a nice try.

There is nothing indicating things will be great in six years.
Sure there is, Dave. Bush will be gone in less than a year. Just think. We'll be universally loved and respected, just like in the godd old days, and everything will be right in the world again.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,407
8,595
126
Originally posted by: Lemon law

The current economy is only sustained by adding debt, while US manufacturing, which pays for it all, has declined greatly in the last seven years. The last recent figure I heard is that manufacturing is only 10% of our economy now.

in terms of employment, manufacturing is about 10% of jobs now. the all time high for manufacturing jobs was in 1980 with about 20 million, about 22% of jobs. the peak as a % of jobs was the end of WWII, where manufacturing was about 38% of jobs. since the end of WWII there has been a pretty steady decline in manufacturing as a percentage of jobs.

it's share of GDP has also decreased from a peak of about 28% in 1952 to about 12% in 2006. but that number is relative to the increasing GDP.

using the manufacturing output of 2002 as the base (100), that 1980 peak employment corresponds to an output of about 50. in 2001 it looks like output was about 105, and 2006 was about 112 or 113. 2007, if numbers become available, would probably be 117 to 118.

the real story here is productivity, which increased 3.0% per year during the 80s, 4.0% per year during the 90s, and 4.2% per year from 2000 to 2006.

so, no, manufacturing has not declined greatly in the last 7 years. there was a big dip after 2001, but we're well past the 2001 peak.

source: chicago fed
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,559
4
0
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
Okay OP and Techs.. we're in a recession, now how would you two bozo's fix it?

Actually quite easily.
We enforce existing trade agreements with China.
End of problem.

 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: techs
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
Okay OP and Techs.. we're in a recession, now how would you two bozo's fix it?

Actually quite easily.
We enforce existing trade agreements with China.
End of problem.

And how is that going to fix the housing bust and credit crunch? The current economic situation has been caused by a banking liquidity bubble, and not trade imbalances or unemployment/productivity issues.

Like the OP, it is transparently obvious that you are more concerned about your ego and being right on an internet message board, than with reality, economics, or the plight of people.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: techs
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
Okay OP and Techs.. we're in a recession, now how would you two bozo's fix it?

Actually quite easily.
We enforce existing trade agreements with China.
End of problem.

And how is that going to fix the housing bust and credit crunch? The current economic situation has been caused by a banking liquidity bubble, and not trade imbalances or unemployment/productivity issues.

Like the OP, it is transparently obvious that you are more concerned about your ego and being right on an internet message board, than with reality, economics, or the plight of people.

Articles beg to differ on your analysis:

2-17-2008 Hard times heighten long-felt unease

Even when experts were declaring the economy healthy, many Americans voiced a vague, but persistent dissatisfaction.

True, jobs were relatively plentiful over the last few years. It was easy to borrow and very cheap. The sharp rise in the value of homes and plentiful credit cards encouraged a nation of consumers to get out and buy.

But to many people, something didn't feel right, even if they couldn't quite explain why.
==============================================
I am one of those "many" people as called a blind squirrel and broken clock by the P&N GOP faithful.


 
Oct 30, 2004
11,442
32
91
Originally posted by: dmcowen674

True, jobs were relatively plentiful over the last few years. It was easy to borrow and very cheap. The sharp rise in the value of homes and plentiful credit cards encouraged a nation of consumers to get out and buy.

The issue isn't merely whether jobs are "plentiful", but rather whether solid middle class jobs are plentiful as opposed to poverty-wage blue collar manual labor and service jobs. Sadly, commentators and journalists fail to recognize that. After all, the working poor have jobs and people who live in the third world have jobs. All jobs are not created equal.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Lemon law
The myth here is that this is just a normal business cycle recession.

When it sure look to me like a slow downward slide, where each subsequent high will be lower than the previous high as the normal business cycle of boom and bust still operates but on a descending slope instead of a level playing field.

The current economy is only sustained by adding debt, while US manufacturing, which pays for it all, has declined greatly in the last seven years.

The last recent figure I heard is that manufacturing is only 10% of our economy now.

Besides the lack of jobs, the fact that payroll is backsliding also busts up the myth that has been perpetrated by certain people that last 7 years.

6-6-2008 Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May, biggest rise since 1986 payrolls cut again

The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May -- the biggest monthly rise since 1986 -- as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs.

The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.

"It was ugly," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

The big jump in the unemployment rate surprised economists who were forecasting a tick-up to 5.1 percent. Payroll losses, however, weren't as deep as the 60,000 that analysts were bracing for. Still, job losses in both March and April turned out to be larger than the government previously reported.

Employers now have cut payrolls for five straight months.

The government said the number of unemployed people grew by 861,000 in May -- rising to 8.5 million. The over-the-month jump in unemployment reflected more workers losing their jobs as well as an increase in those coming into the job market -- especially younger people -- to look for work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

A year ago, the number of unemployed stood at 6.9 million and the jobless rate was 4.5 percent.

And, there's been a lot of talk about whether the economy is on the brink of, or fallen into, its first recession since 2001.

That determination, made by a panel of academics, is usually made well after the fact.

"For the average American there is not debate that the eocnomy is in a recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "That's because their net worth is lower, their purchasing power is lower and it is tough to find a job. If you lose a job, it is tough to get back in," he said.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Sigh...my SO is currently unemployed and has been for 5 straight weeks now despite her every effort to find a job. The really screwed up part is that all she is trying to find is a Staff Accountant position which are normally a dime a dozen when it comes to availability. The job market right now is awful.
 

Queasy

Moderator<br>Console Gaming
Aug 24, 2001
31,796
2
0
Link

The government reported the U.S. lost 49,000 jobs in May as the unemployment rate rose by the largest amount since February 1986.

The Labor Department reported the fifth consecutive month of declines in nonfarm payrolls. The decline was better-than-expected however, as economists had been expecting a 60,000 job decline for last month.

Only 49,000 jobs lost. Then how did we get a .5 jump in unemployment in one month?

The unemployment rate, which is calculated separately by a survey of households, soared to 5.5% in May. Wall Street had only been expecting a slight rise to 5.1%. It?s the highest the rate has been since October 2004.

The government reported that the number of people classified as unemployed jumped by 861,000 last month to 8.5 million. According to the Bureau for Labor Statistics, the increase in unemployed people is a reflection of job cuts as well as new and returning job seekers. It also said the unemployment uptick was ?disproportionately large? among 16 to 24-year olds.

So high school and college students got out of school in May and are looking for jobs plus other individuals are putting themselves back on the job market. The number of job cuts reflects only 49,000 out of the 861,000 increase in the number of of unemployed people.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
6-13-2008 Inflation rate jumps by biggest amount in 6 months

The inflation rate shot up in May at the fastest pace in six months, pushed higher by soaring costs for gasoline and other types of energy.

The Labor Department reported Friday that consumer prices rose by 0.6 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since last November, as gasoline costs surged by 5.7 percent. Food prices, which have also been rising sharply, were up 0.3 percent as the cost of beef and bakery products showed big gains.

Analysts said the pressure in both the energy and food areas is likely to continue as global food shortages and rising demand push food prices up and energy costs continue to soar, reflecting a relentless surge in crude oil prices.

The combination of rising inflation and weak wage gains contributed to another drop in weekly earnings. =======================================================

That can't be.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Yep, we see our budgets get stressed by increased gas in our own tanks but then also in the increase in costs of goods. All very fun.