DOW up 3.3% year to date. When does the "winning" start?

[FIVR]

I've been investing in stocks since 2009 and this is by far the worst year I've seen in the market. Everything is floundering due to the trade war. Volatility is all over the place. Take a look at the Dow chart:

What a piece of shit. How does Trump trash justify this? We all know that typical Trump trash earns 80k a year and does have a 401k. How do they like losing money because their God Emperor is a retard? Do they miss those consistent Obama gains?


Maybe some of our resident Trump trash could explain to me how this is "winning". I'm waiting.

 

[IronWing]

How high do you think it should be?

 

[Genx87]

You have been investing in stocks since the bottom 10 years ago and think this year is the worst? Hot take.

 

[FIVR]

You have been investing in stocks since the bottom 10 years ago and think this year is the worst? Hot take.

2015 was lame but at least I knew the macro picture was improving. There is nothing but storm clouds and black swans on the horizon now. The picture of the future is much worse than 2015.

 

[FIVR]

How high do you think it should be?

Dow would be over 27k if Trump hadn't started this trade war. S&P would be over 3000

 

[IronWing]

Dow would be over 27k if Trump hadn't started this trade war. S&P would be over 3000

Why do you think it should be that high? P/E ratios certainly don't support that valuation.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Trump acknowledged that the stock market could be and likely would be higher without the trade war. But that's the thing about a war, there are sacrifices until you win, then you come out on top and hopefully in a better place. We didn't start this war, other nations taking advantage of us did. Time to fix things.

 

[FIVR]

Why do you think it should be that high? P/E ratios certainly don't support that valuation.

We are at the end of the bull market run and we should be seeing some frothiness. Where is my 30+ P/E ratios? Where are my 50B valuations for companies that only have a website (like pets.com)? Where is the exuberance?


This is the most sad and depressing market top I've ever seen or heard of. No confidence, no euphoria. Fear and anxiety is the main motivator to the markets now.

 

[FIVR]

Trump acknowledged that the stock market could be and likely would be higher without the trade war. But that's the thing about a war, there are sacrifices until you win, then you come out on top and hopefully in a better place. We didn't start this war, other nations taking advantage of us did. Time to fix things.

Wars are fought to be won. They aren't fought simply because you are a stupid asshole who likes to fight with people. If you fight and you don't win, you lose.


Trump is losing this trade war and there is no end in sight. Xi and China are laughing at his ass because they know they can just wait his 4 year term out and negotiate again when the US has a sane leader. Trump doesn't understand that the chinese index holds almost nothing in comparison to the US index so their stock market crashing doesn't put any pressure on Xi or China.

 

[Genx87]

2015 was lame but at least I knew the macro picture was improving. There is nothing but storm clouds and black swans on the horizon now. The picture of the future is much worse than 2015.

After 10 years of economic expansion we are set for a recession? Another hot take.

 

[fskimospy]

Wars are fought to be won. They aren't fought simply because you are a stupid asshole who likes to fight with people. If you fight and you don't win, you lose.

Trump is losing this trade war and there is no end in sight. Xi and China are laughing at his ass because they know they can just wait his 4 year term out and negotiate again when the US has a sane leader. Trump doesn't understand that the chinese index holds almost nothing in comparison to the US index so their stock market crashing doesn't put any pressure on Xi or China.

Let's remember one of the most important things, Trump chose to fight this trade war based on an understanding of trade that is completely, laughably wrong. He literally doesn't know how trade works but felt compelled to enter a trade war to 'fix' a problem he doesn't understand. If you read Woodward's book his advisers kept telling him 'you're just factually wrong' and his only response was 'well I've always thought this way'.

This is the level of stupidity we are dealing with here.

 

[Lanyap]

Yeah, the stock market has been froggy this year. Most people expect a significant correction soon due to high valuations.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Wars are fought to be won. They aren't fought simply because you are a stupid asshole who likes to fight with people. If you fight and you don't win, you lose.


Trump is losing this trade war and there is no end in sight. Xi and China are laughing at his ass because they know they can just wait his 4 year term out and negotiate again when the US has a sane leader. Trump doesn't understand that the chinese index holds almost nothing in comparison to the US index so their stock market crashing doesn't put any pressure on Xi or China.

Trump is winning. Watch, a better deal will come out of this for us.

You think China is just laughing?

13 hours ago - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ncy-depreciates-to-weakest-since-january-2017

China is hurting bad and has a LOT of incentive to hammer out a trade agreement with the US. We buy a lot more from them than they buy from us. We can live with less trade with China, China really can't live with that however.

 

[desy]

Don't forget the record deficit. so much winning

 

[SlowSpyder]

Don't forget the record deficit. so much winning

Record? Did you not live through the Obama and GWB years? They had some years with deficits well north of a trillion dollars.

 

[Genx87]

Yeah, the stock market has been froggy this year. Most people expect a significant correction soon due to high valuations.

I am expecting a correction due to 10 years of economic expansion that has lead to the fed raising rates. And of course our twitter in chief who is a real estate guy thinking he understands how international trade works. And that a trade war is something that can be won. He will make this more painful than it should. But I have a large pile of cash to plow in when this crashes and a democrat president comes in 2021 to fix the mess. My only concern is the democrats go Bernie style. Which means more economic protectionism. Which means not fixing this mess but doubling down on the idiocy.

 

[Blackjack200]

I've been investing in stocks since 2009 and this is by far the worst year I've seen in the market.

I've been working in skyscrapers since 2002, and this by far the worst terrorist attack I've ever seen...

 

[dainthomas]

Wars are fought to be won. They aren't fought simply because you are a stupid asshole who likes to fight with people. If you fight and you don't win, you lose.


Trump is losing this trade war and there is no end in sight. Xi and China are laughing at his ass because they know they can just wait his 4 year term out and negotiate again when the US has a sane leader. Trump doesn't understand that the chinese index holds almost nothing in comparison to the US index so their stock market crashing doesn't put any pressure on Xi or China.

Exactly. Xi is president-for-life, and Dump will be lucky to make it two more years. He can definitely wait.

 

[fskimospy]

Trump is winning. Watch, a better deal will come out of this for us.

You think China is just laughing?

13 hours ago - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ncy-depreciates-to-weakest-since-january-2017

China is hurting bad and has a LOT of incentive to hammer out a trade agreement with the US. We buy a lot more from them than they buy from us. We can live with less trade with China, China really can't live with that however.

China can live with less trade from the US and they appear prepared to do so. The US trade numbers you see drastically overestimate the benefits that China sees from US trade. The way China/US trade works for a lot of things is that China gets parts from all over the world, assembles them, and ships them to the US. For example, the iPhone alone apparently accounts for $16 billion of the US/China trade deficit but China only pockets about $8 of the $240 that the US records as a 'trade deficit' for each phone imported.

 

[K1052]

Record? Did you not live through the Obama and GWB years? They had some years with deficits well north of a trillion dollars.

Not a record deficit but arguably unprecedented for an economy in this stage of growth.

 

[Blackjack200]

Trump is winning. Watch, a better deal will come out of this for us.

You think China is just laughing?

13 hours ago - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ncy-depreciates-to-weakest-since-january-2017

China is hurting bad and has a LOT of incentive to hammer out a trade agreement with the US. We buy a lot more from them than they buy from us. We can live with less trade with China, China really can't live with that however.

If we really wanted to hurt China we would inflate the dollar since that would devastate all their dollar denominated investments. But that's not what we want. We want to protect elites and the reality is that Chinese elites and American elites are mostly on the same side.

 

[fskimospy]

I am expecting a correction due to 10 years of economic expansion that has lead to the fed raising rates. And of course our twitter in chief who is a real estate guy thinking he understands how international trade works. And that a trade war is something that can be won. He will make this more painful than it should. But I have a large pile of cash to plow in when this crashes and a democrat president comes in 2021 to fix the mess. My only concern is the democrats go Bernie style. Which means more economic protectionism. Which means not fixing this mess but doubling down on the idiocy.

This is something sad that I've seen as well. One of the only things I could point to where I think Republicans were totally right and Democrats often wrong was free trade. The Democrats had been moving towards freer trade in recent years though which was good. Now Republicans have gone into full bore know-nothingism but Democrats seem to be backsliding too.

 

[Genx87]

This is something sad that I've seen as well. One of the only things I could point to where I think Republicans were totally right and Democrats often wrong was free trade. The Democrats had been moving towards freer trade in recent years though which was good. Now Republicans have gone into full bore know-nothingism but Democrats seem to be backsliding too.

Felt the shift happened after Bernie was knocked out. Hillary reluctantly had to publicly agree to leave the or back away from TPP due to pressure from democrats. I knew she would not back out if elected, and rightfully so. But the fact she had to back away from her support on it before the election was shocking imo. And very sad. This is going to be a rough couple of decades of both parties go full retard on economics.

 

[SlowSpyder]

China can live with less trade from the US and they appear prepared to do so. The US trade numbers you see drastically overestimate the benefits that China sees from US trade. The way China/US trade works for a lot of things is that China gets parts from all over the world, assembles them, and ships them to the US. For example, the iPhone alone apparently accounts for $16 billion of the US/China trade deficit but China only pockets about $8 of the $240 that the US records as a 'trade deficit' for each phone imported.

We buy over half a trillion dollars in goods from China. More of that than not is now hit with a tariff. It may become cheaper and easier for us to buy elsewhere. This is simply an inflated version of the customer is always right.

 

[zinfamous]

You have been investing in stocks since the bottom 10 years ago and think this year is the worst? Hot take.

That was my first thought, too: Wow! Investing during the longest-sustained bull market with (I think) the greatest, sharpest rise in market value since the Index has been tracked!

Balls.