DOW possibly at 4700 by Tuesday

[shira]

Originally posted by: Ferocious

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
What would it take to halt U.S. stock trading?

EDIT: no stops if plunge occurs after 2:30 pm!

Unless a loss of 2200 points occurred after 2PM. In that event, trading would halt for the rest of the day.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
What would it take to halt U.S. stock trading?

In the event of a 3,350-point decline, the market would close for the day, regardless of the time.

I see.

The 1100 is of only before 2pm. They take an hour break and then it could down 3350.

Wow, could be down to 3600 next week easily.

Not quite. After the hour break for the 1100 loss, if an additional loss of 1100 occurred (making the total loss 2200), another, TWO-hour halt would occur. The 3350-loss halts trading for the rest of the day regardless of when it occurs.

 

[mshan]

Financial Eugenics and the Paulson Super-SIV Bailout plan, version 2008?

"It seems that the major catalyst for this selling is the fact that the newest large banks primarily J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and possibly Morgan Stanley as well ? have issued massive margin calls to hedge funds and other professional traders who use these banks as prime brokers. These calls were not issued because of market losses, but more because the banks arbitrarily decided that they wanted their customers to use less leverage. Margin rates as low as 15% for broker dealers were raised to 35%; hedge funds who had been used to operating on high leverage were told that they had to bring accounts up to a much larger percentage of equity. In this illiquid environment, where all manor of exotic securities literally have no bids, the only place to raise the cash to meet margin calls was to sell stock. That is what really set this market over the edge ? as the first notice of these calls were issued on October 2nd and 3rd. There was something of a grace period to meet the calls, but funds realized they weren?t going to be able to meet them other than by selling stock. There are rumors that the most massive of the calls are due Monday (October 13th). If so, this market could continue to decline through then.

There doesn?t seem to be any reason for this increase in margin. The most benign one is that the banks became overly worried that their prime brokerage customers could cause problems with leverage. A more sinister reason revolves around the fact that the banks issuing the calls will likely wind up the owners of some excellent inventory (relatively illiquid preferreds, bonds, etc., which are being sold at prices well below theoretical value). They are in effect confiscating from their prime brokerage customers.

"Just wanted to pipe in here and say that I don't buy this financial crisis conspiracy stuff. Is there a concerted long-term effort by certain groups to grab more power. Yes. Will they do everything and sometimes anything to manipulate events to their favor. Yes. But real life events are too unpredictable and elites too disagreeable for large conspiracies to work.

The education system is a good example. As Ernest Gellner describes in his brilliant (and short) Nations and Nationalism, modern industrial society needed interchangeable workers. Linguistic and cultural barriers were an obstacle to a growing economy. Cities, regions and countries that implemented educational systems that produced a homogeneous population of workers developed a strong competitive advantage over those that didn't. No conspiracy needed.

Same with the Great Crunch of 2008...the forces that drove such a powerful misallocation of resources go much deeper than the petty schemes of Paulson, the Carlyle Group and the Bilderbergers. Larger forces are at work, such as:

1) Capitalism is prone to bubbles. This is well known and can possibly be managed but no one was trying.
2) Wall Street is corrupt. Banks have been cooking the books. Regulators have been looking the other way. Money has been made.
3) Lots of great financial technology was developed and deployed without proper testing.
4) Lots of smart people but very few wise ones."

<a target=_blank class=ftalternatingbarlinklarge href="https://www.blogger.com/com......320099986857238266"><a target=_blank class=ftalternatingbarlinklarge href="https://www.blogger.com/commen...ID=5320099986857238266"><a target=_blank class=ftalternatingbarlinklarge href="https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=912107698547747613&postID=5320099986857238266">https://www.blogger.c............6857238266</a></a></a>

 

[erwos]

4700 by Tuesday? Unlikely. The talk I've been hearing is that the next resistance point will be 6000.

 

[Thump553]

Cramer already predicted we reached the bottom in mid-July. Assuming today's bounce continues to hold, and we do decent tomorrow, by Wednesday he'll make a completely new projection 180 degrees different.

Personally I'd give more weight to the thread here that calls for November 1, 2008 doomsday. The thing is you throw out enough predictions and sooner or later one has to be right.

 

[BAMAVOO]

Originally posted by: Thump553
Cramer already predicted we reached the bottom in mid-July. Assuming today's bounce continues to hold, and we do decent tomorrow, by Wednesday he'll make a completely new projection 180 degrees different.

Personally I'd give more weight to the thread here that calls for November 1, 2008 doomsday. The thing is you throw out enough predictions and sooner or later one has to be right.

I predict McCain/Palin to be victorious.

 

[Moonbeam]

People hate themselves. They make huge mistakes to unconsciously destroy themselves if they start to get too famous and respected. Of course some people practice modesty as a virtue and don't let things go to their head so easily.

 

[Zorba]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Cramer is a fuckin idiot. Why anybody even cares what he says is beyond me. He is the Jerry Springer of the financial world.

:thumbsup: I can't stand watching him on any show, especially his. His advice always seems like "Buy High Sell Low."

 

[dbk]

Dow is up almost 500 right now.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: dbk
Dow is up almost 500 right now.

Back over 9000

Oil back up over $83 and climbing fast too.

 

[MiniDoom]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: dbk
Dow is up almost 500 right now.

Back over 9000

Oil back up over $83 and climbing fast too.

DRIVE FOR $5!!!
:roll:

 

[HeXploiT]

Cramerika is a a strange place where down is up and left is right. If the president of Cramerika is calling the bottom today he'll call the ceiling tomorrow and tell you he told you so next week.

Here is a classic example of Jim Cramers prophetic madskillz.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: rdubbz420

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: dbk
Dow is up almost 500 right now.

Back over 9000

Oil back up over $83 and climbing fast too.

DRIVE FOR $5!!!
:roll:

It's drive for ten now, please try and keep up.

 

[erwos]

Three words: dead cat bounce.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: rdubbz420

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: dbk
Dow is up almost 500 right now.

Back over 9000

Oil back up over $83 and climbing fast too.

DRIVE FOR $5!!!
:roll:

Actually, dave's recent prediction is $200 barrel and $10 gallon gas. Of course, as always, he doesn't constrain it by a timeline, so in 2097 when that's how much gas is he can come back and say I told you so, lol

 

[SleepWalkerX]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Cramer is a fuckin idiot. Why anybody even cares what he says is beyond me. He is the Jerry Springer of the financial world.

Any smart investor knows that the clueless investors that watch his show and follow his calls have no idea what they're doing, hence they are watching his show and following his calls. So what almost always happens is that smart investors will make a quick buck off of Jim Cramer's calls by doing the opposite of what he suggests. Its painfully funny sometimes.

 

[evident]

think this is just a temporary bounce? i think it will drop more. I just put $1400 more into my trading acct. I dont buy that we've hit the lowest yet, with the way everyone's been talking the last few months.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: evident
think this is just a temporary bounce? i think it will drop more. I just put $1400 more into my trading acct. I dont buy that we've hit the lowest yet, with the way everyone's been talking the last few months.

It would seem that there is often a rally before it drops again. If I can get the time today I will get a trading account setup and put some money in it but not buy yet, too.

Of course, I know close to nothing, so I wouldn't follow my advice too closely. If the pros are completely missing the ball here I cannot presume to be better.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: evident
think this is just a temporary bounce? i think it will drop more.

I just put $1400 more into my trading acct.

I dont buy that we've hit the lowest yet, with the way everyone's been talking the last few months.

Was that to cover fees for being negative?

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
It would seem that there is often a rally before it drops again. If I can get the time today I will get a trading account setup and put some money in it but not buy yet, too.

Of course, I know close to nothing, so I wouldn't follow my advice too closely. If the pros are completely missing the ball here I cannot presume to be better.

Right now the market is rallying because of announced government plans. When the news breaks of some government bailout/credit injection the market rallies. Then when reality sets in it tanks again. Government does something else in response to market tanking, market rallies, then tanks. Rinse repeat.

 

[BigDH01]

Markets simply following bailout news.

A lot of economic data to be released this week.

Expect some volitility.

There are also earnings reports this week. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Wed, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch on Thursday. Not to mention all the non-financial disclosures. Will be an interesting week.

 

[evident]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: evident
think this is just a temporary bounce? i think it will drop more.

I just put $1400 more into my trading acct.

I dont buy that we've hit the lowest yet, with the way everyone's been talking the last few months.

Was that to cover fees for being negative?

huh? im new to investing and i want to just get money ready to buy up when the time is right.

 

[WHAMPOM]

Monday bounce?? Are we just seeing a burst balloon flapping from an injection of hot air??

 

[blahblah99]

Originally posted by: Ferocious
So says Cramer

I think the guy is part looney.

But even if the actual downside drop is 'only' half that, we might see a 2000 drop point drop quickly.

:shocked:

I listen to his show and do the opposite of what he says.

 

[chess9]

So much Kudlow's ex-partner's expertise.....

The horizontal hold must be out on his crystal ball.

-Robert