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Dow plummeting towards 11,000
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Please explain how you're pulling those figures... It looks to me like you're missing more factors than you have to work with..
And, I will further question your factors.. "The dollar has fallen 35%." Well, where do you get that figure? I would say the dollar has fallen 70% - how do you refute that?
Well, I can and will blame Bush for Iraq.. This was HIS war. He pushed for it and he got it.. And it costs us more than $17,000 each so far in the US.
I think a $17,000 stimulus package (though it would be stupid) would be much more beneficial than getting involved in the other side of the world..
StageLeft
No Lifer
Well, the national debt has gone up from the 5-6 trillion range to $9T+ plus in a very short period. Also, the dollar actually is flirting with all time lows right now, although it's been relatively stagnant in the past few weeks and yet oil continues to explode in cost.
Yep, it's too fvcking late to get out of this one without pain.
True that. When Israel said it might attack Iran oil shot up that day.
CycloWizard
Lifer
Is this in the constitution somewhere? The only thing I see regarding a budget appears in Article I, which describes the powers of the legislative branch:
The president, on the other hand, may "recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient..."
You are ascribing powers to the president which do not belong to him. You are doing so at the expense of the legislature.
Congress passed all of the economic stimulus crap and allowed the government to run without a budget for the past two years while the Ds have been in control.
I'm pretty confident that the facts are firmly on my side here. In fact, there's not even any ambiguity.
Did you think we were going to get more than pre-war levels of production out of Iraq? Considering what a cash cow Oil was for Saddam and the UN. I find it hard to believe he didnt have it pumping at near capacity so he could afford another mansion with an adjacent torture and exectution center.
There are tons of factors in why we are where we are currently, so no one thing can be solely blamed or even examined in a vacuum.
We have the following major drains on the economy:
1. Inflation/weak dollar. Others have elaborated on this.
2. High energy prices, not just oil. Speculation, growth in demand that supply cannot account for.
3. Housing bubble, affects the construction industry as well as all of it's sub manufacturing industries.
4. Consumer spending is in the toilet. This affects just about everything, the airlines, tourism, retailers, auto makers.
Unfortunately until #4 recovers I don't think we're going to see much improvement, and holiday spending is supposed to be even lower this year than last year. So things could potentially get a lot worse.
We have the following major drains on the economy:
1. Inflation/weak dollar. Others have elaborated on this.
2. High energy prices, not just oil. Speculation, growth in demand that supply cannot account for.
3. Housing bubble, affects the construction industry as well as all of it's sub manufacturing industries.
4. Consumer spending is in the toilet. This affects just about everything, the airlines, tourism, retailers, auto makers.
Unfortunately until #4 recovers I don't think we're going to see much improvement, and holiday spending is supposed to be even lower this year than last year. So things could potentially get a lot worse.
Dollar index at Nov 2001 = 117, as of today = 84. It has fallen 28%.
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/
LegendKiller
Lifer
It's amazing how much real data people miss when all they do is depend on idiots making YouTube videos and conspiracy websites. It's like they don't even realize that there's a world of info out there ripe for the taking. What's really sad is that they accuse people like us of being ignorant and not knowing the "real problems". Yet, they're the ones who are ignorant of reality.
Too bad I have presented this data dozens of times to the same cabal of fools and not one of them has changed.
Pliablemoose
Lifer
LOL, I love it, I'm up $9K today and CNBC is interviewing gold bugs :evil:
Engineer
Elite Member
Dow now in Bear Market territory....
Up or down from here folks? I think oil and it's impending inflation is going to be very hard to overcome. Raising interest rates will slow a slowing economy to the point of recession but rising oil and other inflationary pressures will do the same. Seems the DC boys and ole Ben have their butts between the ole rock and hard place.
Up or down from here folks? I think oil and it's impending inflation is going to be very hard to overcome. Raising interest rates will slow a slowing economy to the point of recession but rising oil and other inflationary pressures will do the same. Seems the DC boys and ole Ben have their butts between the ole rock and hard place.
I didn't know how to react when i read "I would say the dollar has fallen 70% - how do you refute that?"
People like him and the conspirators are exactly why markets are volatile and there are arbitragers out there making money.
However, I do consider people like him when I invest (i.e. I wait until the train slows or stops to make contrarian investment decisions).
Pliablemoose
Lifer
Quote of the day, "Inflation is like toothpaste, once its out of the tube, it's difficult to put it back in."
The Fed can't intervene decisively until after the elections, and it's gonna get ugly.
Am up $10K today so far.
High oil price is not automatically bad for the stock market since a large amount of the money paid for oil is put into the stock market (The Norwegian oil fund as an example, 60% goes into stocks, 40% into other papers)
Its very possible that a bottom was set today btw.
LegendKiller
Lifer
It all depends.
It's very possible that the bottom will be set Monday. That's a silly statement to make.
Art Cashin on CNBC this morning -> "The Thursday Syndrome"
I think he might be calling for a tradeable bottom, but not necessarily "the" bottom.
I think he might be calling for a tradeable bottom, but not necessarily "the" bottom.
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