NaughtyGeek
Golden Member
Spot on.
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DOW down 250 points, oil up 3.
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Spot on.
Saudi Oil
I wouldn't bet on it
But the detailed document, obtained from a person with access to Saudi oil officials, suggests that Saudi Aramco will be limited to sustained production of just 12 million barrels a day in 2010, and will be able to maintain that volume only for short, temporary periods such as emergencies. Then it will scale back to a sustainable production level of about 10.4 million barrels a day, according to the data. BusinessWeek obtained a field-by-field breakdown of estimated Saudi oil production from 2009 through 2013. It was provided by an oil industry executive who said he had confirmed it with a ranking Saudi energy official who has access to the field data. The executive, who has proven reliable over several years of reporting interaction, provided the data on condition of anonymity to protect his access to the kingdom and the identity of the inside contact who confirmed the information.
I wouldn't bet on it
But the detailed document, obtained from a person with access to Saudi oil officials, suggests that Saudi Aramco will be limited to sustained production of just 12 million barrels a day in 2010, and will be able to maintain that volume only for short, temporary periods such as emergencies. Then it will scale back to a sustainable production level of about 10.4 million barrels a day, according to the data. BusinessWeek obtained a field-by-field breakdown of estimated Saudi oil production from 2009 through 2013. It was provided by an oil industry executive who said he had confirmed it with a ranking Saudi energy official who has access to the field data. The executive, who has proven reliable over several years of reporting interaction, provided the data on condition of anonymity to protect his access to the kingdom and the identity of the inside contact who confirmed the information.
351Cleveland
Golden Member
YES! More cash, less credit.
The last time it was at the current level (10,609) was Nov. 2005, so less than 3 years ago actually.
But we have much farther to drop. Me and a couple coworkers started an informal pool a few months ago, I picked 6500 as what it will drop to. That may prove to have been too optimistic.
dmcowen674
No Lifer
Oil up $6 today with link in my oil thread.
Still think it's "temporary"?
Problem is every article I've ever read that points to continued growth in oil comes from an economist
Every article I've read about reduction and declining fields comes from the oil industry themselves.
The ONLY country projecting growth is Saudi and their keeping production up by pumping as much seawater into their fields as they pull out in oil. In fact a large chunk of their refining process is separating oil from water
"In Saudi Arabia, seawater is injected into the giant fields to help move the oil toward the top of the reservoir. But over time, the volume of water that is lifted along with the oil increases, and the volume of oil declines proportionally. Eventually, it becomes uneconomical to extract the oil. There is also a risk that the field can become unstable and collapse.
Ghawar is still far too productive to abandon. But because of increasing problems with managing the water, one Saudi oil executive said, "Ghawar is becoming very costly to maintain."
The average decline rate in Saudi Aramco's mature fields ? Ghawar and a few others ? "is in the range of 8 percent per year," without additional remediation, according to the company's statement. This means several hundred thousand barrels of daily oil production would have to be added every year just to make up for the diminished output.
Every oil field is unique, and experts cannot predict how long each might last. For its part, Saudi Aramco is counting on Ghawar for years to come."
Now add to the fact that Saudi is using more oil than ever domestically, meaning less to export, and they have recently stated they are capping production for future generations! people are WAY too hopefull on a country we have no control over.
Every article I've read about reduction and declining fields comes from the oil industry themselves.
The ONLY country projecting growth is Saudi and their keeping production up by pumping as much seawater into their fields as they pull out in oil. In fact a large chunk of their refining process is separating oil from water
"In Saudi Arabia, seawater is injected into the giant fields to help move the oil toward the top of the reservoir. But over time, the volume of water that is lifted along with the oil increases, and the volume of oil declines proportionally. Eventually, it becomes uneconomical to extract the oil. There is also a risk that the field can become unstable and collapse.
Ghawar is still far too productive to abandon. But because of increasing problems with managing the water, one Saudi oil executive said, "Ghawar is becoming very costly to maintain."
The average decline rate in Saudi Aramco's mature fields ? Ghawar and a few others ? "is in the range of 8 percent per year," without additional remediation, according to the company's statement. This means several hundred thousand barrels of daily oil production would have to be added every year just to make up for the diminished output.
Every oil field is unique, and experts cannot predict how long each might last. For its part, Saudi Aramco is counting on Ghawar for years to come."
Now add to the fact that Saudi is using more oil than ever domestically, meaning less to export, and they have recently stated they are capping production for future generations! people are WAY too hopefull on a country we have no control over.
Engineer
Elite Member
Political flavor for fun....
Today's close:
Dow 10,609.66
Nasdaq 2,098.85
S&P 500 1,156.39
Start of day on Jan 20th, 2001 (day Bush took office):
Dow 10,587.59
Nasdaq 2,770.38
S&P 500 1,342.54
Points lower since Bush took office...
Dow: 10,609.66 - 10,587.59 = + 22.07 = 0.21% higher
Nasdaq: 2098.85 - 2770.39 = -671.54 = 24.24% lower
S&P 500: 1156.39 - 1,342.54 = -186.15 = 13.87% lower
I don't know if that's mission accomplised or not....but it's sure fucked up. Sits back and waits for someone to post "It's all Clinton's fault"....
Today's close:
Dow 10,609.66
Nasdaq 2,098.85
S&P 500 1,156.39
Start of day on Jan 20th, 2001 (day Bush took office):
Dow 10,587.59
Nasdaq 2,770.38
S&P 500 1,342.54
Points lower since Bush took office...
Dow: 10,609.66 - 10,587.59 = + 22.07 = 0.21% higher
Nasdaq: 2098.85 - 2770.39 = -671.54 = 24.24% lower
S&P 500: 1156.39 - 1,342.54 = -186.15 = 13.87% lower
I don't know if that's mission accomplised or not....but it's sure fucked up. Sits back and waits for someone to post "It's all Clinton's fault"....
zephyrprime
Diamond Member
It was a bailout. Bailouts don't mean that everyone walks away scott free. The share holders will get nothing but the people that AIG insures will still be able to collect on their insurance policies. Most importantly for the financial markets, the numerous CDS's that aig wrote will probably be paid out so other financials that hold those CDS's will not have to report that they just lost huge money because their Fannie and Freddy insurances policies from AIG won't payout. People with whole insurance policies (which are like combo savings and term insurance policies) will still have money. Of course, a bunch of speculators who simply bet that fannie and freddy would go under and bought CDS's from AIG will get paid to so for them, bailing out AIG is purely welfare for the rich.
AIG itself will be sold as pieces to payback the loan to the treasury because AIG has no cash to actually make payments to the treasury.
imported_Infidel
Member
Is it too late to put Social Security into the market? Maybe McCain can get that done for us.
Idiots, all of them.
Idiots, all of them.
dmcowen674
No Lifer
That is the best way to break free from your heroes.
StageLeft
No Lifer
Of course I do. It went up because money has moved out of stocks, which basically furthers the idea that it's speculation or people just desperate to put their money into SOMETHING that will go up. Why else did it fly up today? If the economy is falling apart, as it currently is, high cost commodities like oil are not going to go up as well.
desyif i recall correct saudi has something like 2-3 massive fields and one has yet to really be tapped, that's where their productivity will come from. There is also an increas in oil (though expensive, it's cheaper than current market) from Canada, Brazil, etc.
Cramer had some surprisingly good perspectives today:http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=859102259&play=1 :thumbsup:
Word on the Street: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=859102214&play=1
(Gartman said move in gold was due to article in Chinese newspaper that government would start moving out of dollar reserves and more into gold)
Word on the Street: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=859102214&play=1
(Gartman said move in gold was due to article in Chinese newspaper that government would start moving out of dollar reserves and more into gold)
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