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News Dow bouncing around -1000

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Bitek said:
The other alarming news was the big spread into Italy, iow it's in Europe, and it's in the hands of the Italians.

We're about to lose containment on a virus that has perhaps a 2% morality rate.

The hope was to limit the spread within China's borders. Once it breaks out, who knows how we can stop it.

2% doesn't sound like a lot, but Flu is 0.1%, yet 18,000 Americans die every year to flu.

2% of even 1 billion is 20 million people.
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You (not necessarily YOU) just can't jump to conclusions based on these numbers right now because the data just isn't that solid. It's really hard to compare the flu rates to Covid-19 rates because the quality of the data is so disparate. We have a lot of historical data on flu (various types) we have really limited data on Covid-19. It's all fairly broad speculation.
 
What a great thriller if you’re into writing thrillers.
A world economy devastated by some virus.
Shops empty, streets empty, churches schools the workplace all empty.
I guess we have movies out there with that theme, like CONTAGION, but in all reality I doubt things would need get as bad as in Contagion before the world economy began to collapse.
People thought bad politicians, poor leadership, bad decisions, out of control national debt, political corruption, all the above and more could crash our economy.
Could that happen but not from money issues, but instead from some global bug?
Not to scare the hell out of people but what if this were only the beginning?
What if a nervous stock market today the warnings of what is to come.
A world where just leaving the house could be a death sentence.
Hmmm, wonder what Tom Hanks is up to?
We’re actually related you know..... 😉
 
TheVrolok said:
You (not necessarily YOU) just can't jump to conclusions based on these numbers right now because the data just isn't that solid. It's really hard to compare the flu rates to Covid-19 rates because the quality of the data is so disparate. We have a lot of historical data on flu (various types) we have really limited data on Covid-19. It's all fairly broad speculation.
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I'd say that uncertainty is part of the panic. Bring a novel virus, we just don't have a lot of information yet, and the information we do have is compromised in part as it's coming from China.

Mortality, transmission rates and vectors are all immature. What's certain tho is that the containment we hoped to achieve is not happening and people and the market are getting freaked out where this goes next.
 
Im not so sure about that ... I read its shipping and businesses in the trade sector that is taking a turn down in response to corvid19. I suspect we will have to see some global containment tendencies before it gets better.
 
They are spouting all kinds of theories on CNBC. One is that the Korean news hit hard because they are imbeded in the block chain thingy. Someday I'll get a clue as to what that is.
 
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Suffice it to say that my confidence in this administration's ability to competently deal with this crisis is...extremely limited.
 
Bitek said:
The other alarming news was the big spread into Italy, iow it's in Europe, and it's in the hands of the Italians.

We're about to lose containment on a virus that has perhaps a 2% morality rate.

The hope was to limit the spread within China's borders. Once it breaks out, who knows how we can stop it.

2% doesn't sound like a lot, but Flu is 0.1%, yet 18,000 Americans die every year to flu.

2% of even 1 billion is 20 million people.
Click to expand...
I saw that this whole mess started because at some open air market in Wuhan vendors were illegally selling live animals. They showed cages with porcupines and a fucking small deer. The virus, (they think), was due to someone selling live snakes, the snakes had previously eaten infected rats, the people cleaning the snakes for cooking were the ones who 1st came in contact with the snakes. Nice.
 
BUTCH1 said:
I saw that this whole mess started because at some open air market in Wuhan vendors were illegally selling live animals. They showed cages with porcupines and a fucking small deer. The virus, (they think), was due to someone selling live snakes, the snakes had previously eaten infected rats, the people cleaning the snakes for cooking were the ones who 1st came in contact with the snakes. Nice.
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It is the Year of the Rat.
 
Alright so Kudlow tells reporters "buy the dip" and companies are pulling or lowering guidance after market close. I seem to remember something about a falling knife Larry...
 
BUTCH1 said:
I saw that this whole mess started because at some open air market in Wuhan vendors were illegally selling live animals. They showed cages with porcupines and a fucking small deer. The virus, (they think), was due to someone selling live snakes, the snakes had previously eaten infected rats, the people cleaning the snakes for cooking were the ones who 1st came in contact with the snakes. Nice.
Click to expand...
What's crazy is I just watched a Nova on PBS a few months ago about the next super virus and how it'd likely come out of a wet market. Didn't realize it would happen so soon.
 
My wife and I are both sitting totally in cash since we liquidated our employer 401k's and moved them to Vanguard. Vanguard just puts the funds into a money market acct until you invest it into funds. Trying to decide how long I sit out with the complete and total unknown that the next 10 months of US politics and economy are going to be. :/
 
vi edit said:
My wife and I are both sitting totally in cash since we liquidated our employer 401k's and moved them to Vanguard. Vanguard just puts the funds into a money market acct until you invest it into funds. Trying to decide how long I sit out with the complete and total unknown that the next 10 months of US politics and economy are going to be. :/
Click to expand...
Depends on your age and how close you are to retirement, perhaps.
 
BUTCH1 said:
I saw that this whole mess started because at some open air market in Wuhan vendors were illegally selling live animals. They showed cages with porcupines and a fucking small deer. The virus, (they think), was due to someone selling live snakes, the snakes had previously eaten infected rats, the people cleaning the snakes for cooking were the ones who 1st came in contact with the snakes. Nice.
Click to expand...
The world should fear all the oddball exotic creatures that oriental medicine would destroy. The odder the better, pen
vi edit said:
My wife and I are both sitting totally in cash since we liquidated our employer 401k's and moved them to Vanguard. Vanguard just puts the funds into a money market acct until you invest it into funds. Trying to decide how long I sit out with the complete and total unknown that the next 10 months of US politics and economy are going to be. :/
Click to expand...
Yea, since Trump took office I've had half of mine in the money market fund. Yea, I missed out, but not on this. We will see.
 
hal2kilo said:
The world should fear all the oddball exotic creatures that oriental medicine would destroy. The odder the better, pen

Yea, since Trump took office I've had half of mine in the money market fund. Yea, I missed out, but not on this. We will see.
Click to expand...
Was down fishing at the jetty one day when I caught baby Hammerhead shark, less than a foot long. A few Asian people were fishing next to me, when they saw it they said "you keep?, you keep", I said no, it's going back, it's a juvenile and needs to grow, this upset them, that I would willingly "waste" something caught out of the ocean. They started saying "I keep!, I keep!", I said NO, you won't 'keep" and tossed him back.
 
So earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.

Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100

for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate

for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.

it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
 
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