Double Dip Recession in Sight?

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Fresh evidence of a global economic slowdown has raised fears that governments around the world may be powerless to reverse it. If the world does fall into back into recession, it could be much harder to escape than the contraction that ended in 2009.

With banks still recovering from a decade-long credit bubble, governments slashing spending to cope with unsustainable debt, and unemployment at levels not seen in decades, a new recession would be “disastrous,” according to Roger Altman, a senior Treasury official in the Clinton administration.

Two years after the latest U.S. recession technically ended, evidence continues to build that the weak recovery is stalling out. The U.S. economy stopped producing new jobs in August after a string of mostly meager monthly job gains that failed to bring the unemployment rate below 9 percent.

On Thursday, fresh data showed the Eurozone's service sector contracting for the first time in two years; a separate index of the manufacturing sector, which has provided much of the region’s growth, slowed for the second month in a row.

A global stock sell-off that dragged market indices to their lowest level of the year spread to the U.S., where the Dow Jones industrial average was down nearly 400 points.

European central bankers appear increasingly unable to contain a widening banking crisis, sparked by the threat of bond defaults in Greece and Italy, Europe’s third-largest economy.

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that Europe and the United States could slip back into recession next year without bold action

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_ne...ions-second-act-would-be-worse-than-the-first

Just a stronger concern over a double-dip is bad. More uncertainty etc.

Small businesses are barley hanging on now, many haven't. Just keeping the status quo is unacceptable, IMO another contraction and we're in really deep doo-doo. More failing businesses, more mortgage defaults, toxic assets get more toxic.

Whoever is President in '12 may well find the situation even worse than Obama was elected in '08

Fern.
 
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Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
When did the first recession end?

I was wondering the same thing.

I hear ya.

I've been thinking we need a new term, or redefine "recession" somewhat.

According to economists since we are no longer contracting the 'recession' is over. Oh really? We may have stopped contracting but we're left with all the bad effects of it. We're at the bottom, just no falling anymore.

But people say 'we're out of the recession' like we've recovered to the pre-recession economy when we haven't, not in the least.

Fern
 

MovingTarget

Diamond Member
Jun 22, 2003
9,002
115
106
Of course. The first one isn't over, at least if you are middle class or below. Its been going on for years with no end in sight. The economy is in fact in an "L" shaped recession, not a V or W. As long as nothing is done to improve the economy for the average worker, the pain will continue to trickle up. We felt this coming even before the DOW hit 14k.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
7,648
2,925
136
If we are headed for a "double-dip" it's quite possible that Operation Twist will speed us along the way. This idea that long-term rates need to be suppressed to help the economy doesn't seem to be well thought out.

Consumers, the driving force behind all economic activity, won't see any direct benefit from Twist. Suppressing long-term rates might keep mortgage rates low but given the tight current lending standards, quantity of borrowers currently underwater, and lack of real property market confidence, it is not going to spur a miraculous housing boom. All other consumer-type credit isn't fueled directly by the long-term Treasury market it's fueled by the inter-bank lending rate. If Twist causes bank confidence to wane then that rate, and prime along with it, will actually go up.

Compounding this is the fact that artificially suppressing long-term rates hurts certain business sectors highly, which is directly transferred to increased consumer costs. Banks rely quite a bit on the purchase of long-term Treasuries; if rates are kept low the banks will have to increase lending and banking fees to fund operations. Insurers also rely quite a bit on long-term treasuries to fund their portfolios; if rates are kept low then investment yield will drop. Investment yield is used to offset combined ratio, which is often in excess of 1 (Combined ratio is the ratio of the sum of losses and operating expenses to earned premium). So, if yield drops insurers won't be able to withstand combined ratios near or in excess of 1, and premiums will have to go up or policies will be canceled. That's going to make consumer confidence drop even further and stretch the already-stretched-too-thin average American to the point of breaking.
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
3
76
A double dip / depression is a virtual certainty at this point, IMO, and I've been saying this for a while now. Just because the idiots in my business and on bubblevision (CNBC) prefer to live in denial doesn't make things any less sh!tyy.

You don't just recover from a massive credit bubble. The debt either has to be paid off or written down. Paying it off takes time. Writing it off means losses for the lender and bankruptcy for the borrower -- both suck. Meanwhile the Fed is pushing on a string throwing gobs of liquidity at people who have no interest in loaning the money or taking on more debt, and governments worldwide are suspending mark to market rules, all in the vain hope of preventing people (mostly the lenders and investors) from needing to realize losses.

Tough shit -- time to pay the piper suckers. We lived beyond our means for so long it's time for some hard medicine. It's going to be Great Depression 2 and I'll see you all at S&P 750.
 

RbSX

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
8,351
1
76
Works for me, I made 40% on my stock portfolio the last two days. Honestly, the ineptitude of most of the world's nation states when it comes to financial planning is stunning.

The Greeks/Italians/Portugese/Spaniards are just fucking lazy. The Irish were victims of a low corporate tax rate policy.

The United States... where to even start.

Suffice to say Operation Twist incentivizes the kind of borrowing that got the USA into this kinda problem. The argument for it is that if the borrowed funds can initiate a growth rate in excess of interest, which will result in money back in the pockets of poeple.

The people is the people that will benefit from this aren't the average persons.


Makes me happy I didn't move to the states a few years ago.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Yes, that seems to be the case. In part because things are just so badly broken, in part because Republicans have successfully obstructed, in part because Obama has had a more corporatist approach than a Democrat should (than anyone should). Republicans are behaving like winning the election is all that matters, by recognizing that the single best predictor of who will win is the economy.

I think you're right that there's a risk that the 2012 president might face a worse situation than Obama did.

Coincidentally, things got a lot worse for three years after 1929 crash until FDR was elected; if Bush had been president for three years after the 2008 crash, Republicans would get even more blame, just as Hoover did. Instead, this bad period has been under Obama taking office right after the crash.
 

matt0611

Golden Member
Oct 22, 2010
1,879
0
0
Yes, of course there will be. The current depression was just covered up for a few years by a lot of government money printing and more debt.

Welcome to the real economy, bitches. You haven't seen nothing yet though.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Middle and lower classes have been in recession over a decade. Wages down 7% for the entire 2000's decade. Keep shipping those jobs out and putting in more "free trade" agreements. It's doing wonders to our economy.

Any day now, those job creators will take some of the last 10 years of tax cuts (business holdings up another 3.4% this last quarter to the tune of $2,100,000,000,000 in CASH right now) and will turn us around on a dime! :biggrin:
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
A double dip / depression is a virtual certainty at this point, IMO, and I've been saying this for a while now. Just because the idiots in my business and on bubblevision (CNBC) prefer to live in denial doesn't make things any less sh!tyy.

You don't just recover from a massive credit bubble. The debt either has to be paid off or written down. Paying it off takes time. Writing it off means losses for the lender and bankruptcy for the borrower -- both suck. Meanwhile the Fed is pushing on a string throwing gobs of liquidity at people who have no interest in loaning the money or taking on more debt, and governments worldwide are suspending mark to market rules, all in the vain hope of preventing people (mostly the lenders and investors) from needing to realize losses.

Tough shit -- time to pay the piper suckers. We lived beyond our means for so long it's time for some hard medicine. It's going to be Great Depression 2 and I'll see you all at S&P 750.

I'll agree that the FRB is mostly pushing on a string, but they're the only entity that can act at all against the tide of Cut, Cut!, Cut! coming from Repubs, along with their plaintive wails about not oppressing the pitiful rich with greater taxes, the rich who are hoarding liquidity by every means possible.

This is a liquidity trap, soon to become a debt/deflation spiral, something that benefits the true Bush constituency above all others. No wonder Repubs are pushing it so hard, and lying so much to achieve it.

I don't think it really has to be this way, at all. Alternatives are available, but so long as the right wing song and dance continues to mesmerize enough of the population, the decline is unavoidable.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
A double dip / depression is a virtual certainty at this point, IMO, and I've been saying this for a while now. Just because the idiots in my business and on bubblevision (CNBC) prefer to live in denial doesn't make things any less sh!tyy.

You don't just recover from a massive credit bubble. The debt either has to be paid off or written down. Paying it off takes time. Writing it off means losses for the lender and bankruptcy for the borrower -- both suck. Meanwhile the Fed is pushing on a string throwing gobs of liquidity at people who have no interest in loaning the money or taking on more debt, and governments worldwide are suspending mark to market rules, all in the vain hope of preventing people (mostly the lenders and investors) from needing to realize losses.

Tough shit -- time to pay the piper suckers. We lived beyond our means for so long it's time for some hard medicine. It's going to be Great Depression 2 and I'll see you all at S&P 750.
I suspect you are correct. I believe that Engineer is also correct though, that much of this is merely the result of our outsourcing so many of our wealth producing jobs over the years.
 

Ausm

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
25,213
14
81
Middle and lower classes have been in recession over a decade. Wages down 7% for the entire 2000's decade. Keep shipping those jobs out and putting in more "free trade" agreements. It's doing wonders to our economy.

Any day now, those job creators will take some of the last 10 years of tax cuts (business holdings up another 3.4% this last quarter to the tune of $2,100,000,000,000 in CASH right now) and will turn us around on a dime! :biggrin:

NO NO you have it wrong man it's going to take a Republican in the Whitehouse to lead us to the promise land!!
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,948
126
Any day now, those job creators will take some of the last 10 years of tax cuts (business holdings up another 3.4% this last quarter to the tune of $2,100,000,000,000 in CASH right now) and will turn us around on a dime! :biggrin:

They have no desire to move money around as they pay hardly any taxes. I know if i was sitting on a huge pot of cash it would dribble out and i would hoard. If you all of a sudden taxed me on it i would slice out enough so i was happy forever and roll the dice with the rest (i.e. invest it in the economy)
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
3
76
They have no desire to move money around as they pay hardly any taxes. I know if i was sitting on a huge pot of cash it would dribble out and i would hoard. If you all of a sudden taxed me on it i would slice out enough so i was happy forever and roll the dice with the rest (i.e. invest it in the economy)

No you wouldn't. The higher your tax bracket the greater the likelihood you'd sock more away into munis. And pay even less in taxes. Just ask the Kerrys how their 7.2% effective tax rate is working out for them...
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
One thing I don't understand. (Yes, ONLY one thing. LOL) I keep hearing that consumer confidence is the lowest since Carter. Yet when I'm driving, it seems like the entire state has come to Chattanooga. The roads are packed, even fairly late at night. When we're in a store, there are lots of shoppers, and a good percentage of them are buying 'cause there are long lines and waits when we buy. So what gives? Who are all these people?

I'm wondering to what degree people are so overwhelmed with negative news and crises that they assume that although they are doing okay, everyone else must be really hurting. I know there are a lot of people really hurting, as measured by hard numbers such as unemployment, food stamps, foreclosures, and such. But damn, it seems like there's a lot of economic activity going on.

Our business (engineering) has picked up to the point that we're more worried about meeting deadlines than about meeting payroll. So what's going on? Are we splitting into an employed middle class and an unemployed class of ballotmen? Is our huge trade deficit defeating our recovery by sending money out of the country as quickly as it is spent?

Something just doesn't seem right.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,066
4,712
126
What else do you expect from global austerity too soon after a big economic disaster? We tried it after the first half of the great depression and you know how well that turned out.
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
Really? Trying to balance the budget in the middle of a slow down not a good idea? Shocking
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,847
10,158
136
When did the first recession end?

When the Feds printed money to 'hide the decline'. GDP looked 'great' when they shot it full of crack. Of course the time has come due for another fix. Dems demand it, Reps oppose it.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,066
4,712
126
Whoever is President in '12 may well find the situation even worse than Obama was elected in '08
Unless something big happens, Obama will be president in '12. The NEXT president starts in '13.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
One thing I don't understand. (Yes, ONLY one thing. LOL) I keep hearing that consumer confidence is the lowest since Carter. Yet when I'm driving, it seems like the entire state has come to Chattanooga. The roads are packed, even fairly late at night. When we're in a store, there are lots of shoppers, and a good percentage of them are buying 'cause there are long lines and waits when we buy. So what gives? Who are all these people?

Look at the people and the cars they are driving.

The ones you see out and shopping still have new clothes and new cars and they still have a decent job.

The ones you don't see are the ones with old clothes and old beat up cars and are the unemployed and UNDERemployed.

Look closely at the people.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,515
0
0
One thing I don't understand. (Yes, ONLY one thing. LOL) I keep hearing that consumer confidence is the lowest since Carter. Yet when I'm driving, it seems like the entire state has come to Chattanooga. The roads are packed, even fairly late at night. When we're in a store, there are lots of shoppers, and a good percentage of them are buying 'cause there are long lines and waits when we buy. So what gives? Who are all these people?

I'm wondering to what degree people are so overwhelmed with negative news and crises that they assume that although they are doing okay, everyone else must be really hurting. I know there are a lot of people really hurting, as measured by hard numbers such as unemployment, food stamps, foreclosures, and such. But damn, it seems like there's a lot of economic activity going on.

Our business (engineering) has picked up to the point that we're more worried about meeting deadlines than about meeting payroll. So what's going on? Are we splitting into an employed middle class and an unemployed class of ballotmen? Is our huge trade deficit defeating our recovery by sending money out of the country as quickly as it is spent?

Something just doesn't seem right.

The media loves to report on bad news, which tends to magnify everyone's concern far out of proportion to the actual seriousness of an issue. Shark attacks, pretty white girls getting kidnapped, terrorism, etc, the media loves picking out stories like this. And people view the news as a representative sample of what's going on, despite the fact that the stories are picked because they are unique and interesting.

And with the economy, you have the added problem of the Republicans having the core political strategy of convincing everyone that the economy is going to hell in a handbasket.