Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Back on topic?
It seems highly likely that her killing was done or motivated by Islamic Radicals.
As a few people have pointed out, Musharraf seemed to have more to lose by her death than by her living. With her living he can ?use? her to maintain his hold on power. With her gone he is back to square one so to speak.
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I have to agree that in all probability, it was some sort of Al-Quida operation. But beyond that we will likely never know for sure, and in those type events, what may move mobs and the people, short and long term, is what they emotionally believe.
The nearest comparable case may be the assassination of Harria in Lebanon. Its never been proved that Syria done it, but almost overnight almost everyone assumed Syria did, and as a result the Syrian occupation of Lebanon became immediately untenable. Intermediate term the big winners may have become Hezzbollah and Iran as a bloody Israeli incursion into Lebanon was partly triggered by that instability and events continue to play out. And the Lebanese central government remains a basket case. As Lebanon still has not recovered from a civil war almost three decades ago.
In contrast Pakistan is an entirely different situation. The vast majority of the population are firmly invested in embracing modern ideals of technology and governance, and as a result
the reactionary ideals of fundamentalist Islam with its Sharia law is something that won't sell and has little appeal. But there are still parts of Pakistan, the so called tribal areas, where Pakistan is little changed in a thousand years. And those areas seamlessly blend into
Afghanistan where the concept of international borders have little relevance to locals and are just quaint ideas of mapmakers. And there the situation is very different as modern Western ideas have very little traction or appeal. Because the populations have never seen any benefit from it. And because Afghanistan has not have any kind of real stable central government in its history, local tribal ties remain strong as a hardscrabble existence is possible without the benefits of modernity.
In the late 1970's Afghanistan became a political football as the Soviet Union annexed Afghanistan and the final death knell of this for this pastoral lifestyle started. The US responded by arming Afghani resistance fighters with shoulder fired missiles that would take out helicopters that amounted to the only means of practical transport in regions lacking roads. And in the process these fighters rallied around their religion and traditional values. Soon the Russian were sent packing and Afghanistan descended into a civil war. But finally the locals saw two benefits to Western civilization. Modern weapons were effective tools and there was a fortune to be made in opium cultivation by those who were organized
as local distributors. And the money bought arms and local control of fiefdoms. And money and power is a currency understood worldwide. With those few resultant war lords then resulting all invested in maintaining the Afghani anarchy that brought them control.
Per say, that would not have effected Pakistan all that much where the benefits of modern technology were much more peaceful and apparent. But Pakistan is sandwiched into a box.
Facing a hostile India to the East and with all land based trade routes to the West and North
going through Afghanistan, an unstable Afghanistan is a Pakistani national security concern
of the first order. But from the Pakistani viewpoint, they did not care what kind of political rat hole Afghanistan was, they needed the trade routes an Afghanistan in anarchy could not provide. And thus Pakistan helped create the Taliban who partly used religion in the ways
religions have always been used which is to aid in gaining power and control.
And the joint Pakistani Taliban plan worked, soon trade routes opened, and the world shook its head in bemused horror as the nutty taliban used 3000 year old historical monuments for artillery practice. And primitive Sharia law swept the land as women were disenfranchised. But at least the power of the war lords were broken and opium cultivation almost totally stopped. And there the situation would have fossilized except for Al-Quida and 911.
And suddenly Pakistan became the political football because getting into Afghanistan to remove the Taliban required a landbase. And there were just two choices. Pakistan or Iran.
Since Iran was not an option that left Pakistan as teh lucky country. And Washington made Musharrif an offer he could not refuse. But it was apparent that the Pakistani downside would be a temporary loss of these trade routes through Afghanistan which was not going to go over well. In exchange Musharrif got substantial bribes and a pledge from Washington to not put US boots on the ground in Pakistani soil except along roads in and out of Afghanistan. Under those terms Musharrif was able to sell the deal without being deposed.
But like Iraq, the US went in far too light and made a botch of it early on. The first mistake they made was in allying with the Northern alliance. The very thugs who cultivated opium and kept the country in anarchy. But the US plan worked, soon the Taliban was routed, and a newly armed Northern alliance was soon back setting up their local fiefdoms and back in the drug business. But when it came time to get the head of Bin Laden, the Northern alliance didn't care, not their fight. And if we had Bin laden cornered in Tora Bora, we can blame US expediency in letting him slip away because we decided to let the Northern alliance take the causalities. And they simple outsmarted us and opted not to.
As for the Afghani trade routes, they were toast. AND STILL ARE. And still will be for the foreseeable future. Because the USA has built nothing to bring any of the benefits of modernity to the Afghani people. Maybe we built a few show roads and schools, Karzi is the de facto mayor of Kabul but still very little has been done because no money has been invested. And Musharrif is quite furious at Karzi because he expends no effort to break the power of the warlords who rule everything outside of Kabul. Because until their power is again broken, the trade routes Pakistan needs are toast.
As for the Taliban and Al-Quida, they fled into the tribal areas of Pakistan where they now cause mischief and control some cities. They have also fled into Pakistani large Urban areas
where they again partly feed the religious right. And they can also easily flee into anyone of the Stans to the North so anyone who thinks its going to be an easy military problem to eradicate them is out of their mind.
And to add injury to US insult, the taliban is back into Afghanistan with yearly summer offense. And sadly they have free rein in the countryside. Catching the locals in the same
problem Iraqis have, they try to stay uninvolved, because if the taliban don't kill em the US will. And will tell each side what they want to hear but they just wish both would go away.
But back to our out of their minds overoptimistic leadership who fails to understand why they failed now think they can simply go into the tribal areas of Pakistan. And Musharrif
knows he will be deposed if the US puts boots on the ground in Pakistan. So enter Bhutto
who favors US intervention.
Now who had motive and opportunity?
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