Dems, are we going to lose again?

[Hacp]

Originally posted by: dyna

Originally posted by: Hacp
Despite what many people here say, the country is fairly divided between left and right. The United States is not mostly conservative. Its just that a few swing states are centered more towards the moderate right than the moderate left. Remember, Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. Democrats, although narrowly, took control of congress in 2006.

But if you add in the fact that Bush was widely unpopular and still won means that the country is likely more conservative.

Bush's approval ratings were around 50% around election time. I don't see how he was unpopular in 2004.

 

[RaiderJ]

I'll not vote for any Republican or Democrat that supports the "War on Terror". That limits my choices to Ron Paul and most of the Democrats.

I'll cry if Guiliani gets elected.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: RaiderJ
I'll not vote for any Republican or Democrat that supports the "War on Terror". That limits my choices to Ron Paul and most of the Democrats.

I'll cry if Guiliani gets elected.

I'll be unhappy if any Republican but Newt gets elected. Already unhappy that the only Libertarian is smoking something and whose stance on foreign policy is like electing Dennis Kucinich.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Mxylplyx

Originally posted by: senseamp
Can you imagine if Kerry won in 2004? Democrats would be on their way to becoming a permanent minority party instead of the GOP. He who laughs last, laughs best.
Anyways, if Hillary is polling 5 points higher than Rudy now, with all her negatives, she is very likely to win. She is pretty much immune to dirt being thrown at her at this point, while she still hasn't gone to work on Rudy.
That's why I'd pick the devil I know over the one I don't. Obama seems good now, but he is still largely a dark horse, no pun intended, as far as the kind of swiftboating he still has to withstand from the right. Kerry looked "electable" around nomination time too. Hillary on the other hand has been attacked so many times for so long, it's factored in now, and it won't do much damage to her. Of course I am going to vote for and give money to whoever the Democrats nominate. Gotta use my Bush tax cut for something

Hillary has never been under a coordinated attack campaign in the national media. The general, uninformed electorate doesnt know about all the skeletons in Hillary's closet yet. The Repubs attack machine is going to take attack ads to a new high, or low, and it's probably going to work.

It's not going to work. Look at these books that are coming out about her every month now. They all get media coverage, but not much impact if any on her ratings. It's already cooked in the goose so to speak.
The thing is, all these skeletons that you speak of will have to get in line with all the other skeletons that the rightwing attack machine has been throwing at her for decades now, and it's going to be hard for them to stand out from old news. Obama, on the other hand is like Hiroshima and Nagasaki, spared the firebombing to make a target for the big bombs later on. So is Giuliani to some extent, because a lot of his scandals are local NY stories waiting to go national.

Why do you keep assuming Guiliani will be the GOP nominee?!?!? No way a pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion social liberal gets past the GOP base in the primaries. I don't care what the polls are telling you, when the process starts, Guiliani will not emerge the winner.

Because Guiliani is the only Republican who has any chance in the General election.

 

[Mursilis]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Mursilis
Why do you keep assuming Guiliani will be the GOP nominee?!?!? No way a pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion social liberal gets past the GOP base in the primaries. I don't care what the polls are telling you, when the process starts, Guiliani will not emerge the winner.

Because Guiliani is the only Republican who has any chance in the General election.

Which may or may not be true, but has nothing to do with whether he'll in fact emerge as the nominee (which he won't).

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: kage69

Good luck thinking that.

She has way too much baggage to win it.

Keep it, you'll be the one needing it in life if you really think your input here counts as something insightful or accurate. 'Baggage' stopped being the potential sinker you wish it were some time ago; wtf have you been?

WTF has he been? I'd guess he's been paying attention this last election. Remember John Kerry and "swift boating"? His Vietnam baggage "sank his boat" bro.

And I too believe we may see some more baggage on HRC if (prolly when) she gets the nomination. (1) Recently de-classified info on her college thesis has become avilable, (2) info on first job/internship with the liberal lawyer representing the Black Panthers, and (3) this supposedly "smart women" could NOT pass the Bar Exam in Washington DC and apparently hasn't been, cough cough, very forthcoming about it.

Lord knows what else may pop up. But we ain't gonna see it until after she's nominated.

Fern

 

[HGC]

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Mursilis
Why do you keep assuming Guiliani will be the GOP nominee?!?!? No way a pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion social liberal gets past the GOP base in the primaries. I don't care what the polls are telling you, when the process starts, Guiliani will not emerge the winner.

Because Guiliani is the only Republican who has any chance in the General election.

Which may or may not be true, but has nothing to do with whether he'll in fact emerge as the nominee (which he won't).

The latest polling has the Falwellians behind Rudy. He'll nominate constitutional conservatives for the Supreme Court. That's all they really care about. His personal views on abortion and gay marriage and his Clintonian personal life don't much affect public policy.

 

[First]

What about a Clinton/Obama ticket? At this point, that would guarantee the presidency over anything the Republicans can muster (Giuliani/McCain doesn't look attractive with McCain faltering at the moment).

 

[kage69]

WTF has he been? I'd guess he's been paying attention this last election. Remember John Kerry and "swift boating"? His Vietnam baggage "sank his boat" bro.

Always nice to see the deluded charge in to help their own. The Swiftboaters? Your kidding, right? That's your input on "baggage"? Coming from someone who speaks of paying attention, damn - that's beyond sad.

Yep, actually facing the enemy, getting shot at, and risking his life to haul in a mangled comrade; such baggage that Kerry had!

The disgusting smear campaign run by the Swiftboat Liars helped sink Kerry's bid, granted, but I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to prove by showing you bought that steaming pile of bullsh!t, gobbling it up gleefully like too many of my lazy, easily amused countrymen. I bet it just chews your ass up to no end knowing that sleazy Kerry was right about so much during the debates. Heh, priceless!

And I too believe we may see some more baggage on HRC if (prolly when) she gets the nomination. (1) Recently de-classified info on her college thesis has become avilable, (2) info on first job/internship with the liberal lawyer representing the Black Panthers, and (3) this supposedly "smart women" could NOT pass the Bar Exam in Washington DC and apparently hasn't been, cough cough, very forthcoming about it.

If only your kind could be this critical of your own. The irony is just killing me... :laugh:

*regains composure*

LOL, congrats Fern, you just landed yourself in my zendari bin. :thumbsdown:

 

[TheSlamma]

If you guys can get him through the primaries Obama will have my vote But I can't have anything to do with it until then.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma
If you guys can get him through the primaries Obama will have my vote But I can't have anything to do with it until then.

Why's that?

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma
If you guys can get him through the primaries Obama will have my vote But I can't have anything to do with it until then.

So youre an elector? Nice!

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: kage69

WTF has he been? I'd guess he's been paying attention this last election. Remember John Kerry and "swift boating"? His Vietnam baggage "sank his boat" bro.

Always nice to see the deluded charge in to help their own. The Swiftboaters? Your kidding, right? That's your input on "baggage"? Coming from someone who speaks of paying attention, damn - that's beyond sad.

Yep, actually facing the enemy, getting shot at, and risking his life to haul in a mangled comrade; such baggage that Kerry had!

The disgusting smear campaign run by the Swiftboat Liars helped sink Kerry's bid, granted, but I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to prove by showing you bought that steaming pile of bullsh!t, gobbling it up gleefully like too many of my lazy, easily amused countrymen. I bet it just chews your ass up to no end knowing that sleazy Kerry was right about so much during the debates. Heh, priceless!

And I too believe we may see some more baggage on HRC if (prolly when) she gets the nomination. (1) Recently de-classified info on her college thesis has become avilable, (2) info on first job/internship with the liberal lawyer representing the Black Panthers, and (3) this supposedly "smart women" could NOT pass the Bar Exam in Washington DC and apparently hasn't been, cough cough, very forthcoming about it.

If only your kind could be this critical of your own. The irony is just killing me... :laugh:

*regains composure*

LOL, congrats Fern, you just landed yourself in my zendari bin. :thumbsdown:

You've managed to spill a lot a ink without addressing the central issue: Does baggage affect campaigns?

You assert that it stopped doing so long ago. Your assertion has been refuted.

Digging up stuff from the past ("baggage") clearly hurt Kerry in the last election, as you admit. Moreover, according to your words above, it wasn't even legitimate. I think that only serves to further prove the point of the affect baggage can have on a candidates electability.

The term "baggage" is just a nicer name for "smear campaigns". Given all the comments about Karl Rove and his effectiveness at generating such campaigns on this board and in the media in general, I'm surprised to see someone (in this case you) suggest that such tricks are ineffective and a thing of the past. I couldn't disagree more; I think politics has only turned nastier and expect it to continue. I see nothing in the current climate to suggest otherwise.

As to the three examples off the top of my head of "new" things which could possibly be used in a campaign against HRC (that you failed to address btw), time will tell if they will actually be used against her by the Repubs and their suporters. But I've already heard commentators rehashing such old stuff as Vince Foster, the Rose Law Firm records, her cattle futures profits and Bill's promiscuity. And this is her first NATIONAL election campaign, outside of political junkies I remain unconvinced that the average (uninformed) voter is aware of all of these matters.

Fern