Deal with China?

[zzyzxroad]

Trade war seems like it is just about wrapped up. Art of the deal in action.

Trump says China trade deal may have to wait amid sticking points in talks

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday a trade deal with China might have to wait until after the U.S. presidential election in November 2020, denting hopes that the two largest economies would soon reach an initial deal to ease their damaging trade war.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bitek]

Well well well, who would have thought, other than anyone with a brain.

How many of this called this out as bullshit earlier in this thread.

Wall St always seems surprised tho. "What? What Trump says isn't going to happen?! But how? He's so honest and works so hard! SELL SELL STILL!"

 

[K1052]

There is no China deal until there is a signed and implemented China deal for all to see. The rest is just bullshittery designed to pump up equities because Trump can't stand red indicators.

Trump also slapped metals tariffs back on Brazil and Argentina where unrest is depressing their currencies and accused them of manipulating the exchange rates to gain advantage, never mind that both of those places have major problems that are actually moving the currencies. He's also pissed that they are selling ag products to China who naturally moved to diversify imports after Trump made the US an unreliable supplier. Sorry farmers, much of that market share is gone for good.

Also the trade war with the EU looks to be heating up.

Tariff Man is back and just as incompetent as ever.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Just got a headline from my news app (too early to even find an actual written article):

Trump administration, China reach trade deal in principle.



Let's hope this time the 'tards at China don't backtrack on things that were previously agreed like last time.

 

[IronWing]

Friday is just a day away. Trump tends to blow up deals on Fridays.

 

[SMOGZINN]

Trump administration, China reach trade deal in principle.

I thought we had a deal in principle with China in October?
Yes, he announced this on Oct 11th.

 

[dank69]

Just got a headline from my news app (too early to even find an actual written article):

Trump administration, China reach trade deal in principle.



Let's hope this time the 'tards at China don't backtrack on things that were previously agreed like last time.

I wonder how many times Trump can get people to bite on that lure.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I wonder how many times Trump can get people to bite on that lure.

Like it or not - the US economy is holding solid whereas China is showing its cracks and dependencies.

They just have less and less leverage to keep trying to hold the strong and ignorant stance.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Latest article I can find: https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/12/politics/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal/index.html

 

[ShookKnight]

1. it's a lie (again)

2. it's a deal, but it is worse than where we were before and possibly even worse than the trade war itself.

3. it's a deal, and it's good, but it will die pretty quickly because Trump can't do anything right

But, of course, everything has reasons to Trump's failures, ergo, they are not failures and we are the bad people for even pointing out his failures.

 

[fskimospy]

Like it or not - the US economy is holding solid whereas China is showing its cracks and dependencies.

They just have less and less leverage to keep trying to hold the strong and ignorant stance.

You still don't get it, Trump needs a trade deal much worse than China does. Remember how in the past you were so sure China would surrender to us? Well, they didn't.

If any deal at all happens it will be one where China makes superficial changes that can quickly be reversed if it chooses to. They will not make any significant durable commitments to Trump because 1) they know they have him over a barrel and 2) they can't trust him to hold up his end anyway.

After writing the first paragraph I read the most recent CNN article and yup, I was right.

 

[SMOGZINN]

"At the end of the day, it all comes down to the final details and what gets agreed upon—and that’s still to be determined"

So, it seems that all they have is an agreement that there needs to be an agreement. Sounds like both sides have just agreed to delay the new tariffs for a bit. Does not sound like a huge deal to me.

 

[fskimospy]

"At the end of the day, it all comes down to the final details and what gets agreed upon—and that’s still to be determined"

So, it seems that all they have is an agreement that there needs to be an agreement. Sounds like both sides have just agreed to delay the new tariffs for a bit. Does not sound like a huge deal to me.

Trump.
Can't.
Make.
Credible.
Commitments.

This is why you will never see a major agreement where a counterparty makes significant concessions that they can't easily take back - nobody trusts that Trump would hold up his part of the deal.

I'm not sure why this is so confusing to people, they should realize at this point that Trump will never secure a major deal with any country. He will never be able to do so because no country will ever make that deal with him. Look at his 'signature' trade deal, it's just a rebranded NAFTA with a few tweaks.

 

[esquared]

You still don't get it, Trump needs a trade deal much worse than China does. Remember how in the past you were so sure China would surrender to us? Well, they didn't.

If any deal at all happens it will be one where China makes superficial changes that can quickly be reversed if it chooses to. They will not make any significant durable commitments to Trump because 1) they know they have him over a barrel and 2) they can't trust him to hold up his end anyway.

After writing the first paragraph I read the most recent CNN article and yup, I was right.

This dumbass doesn't know jack about the China deal or dealing.
Remember his former Professor at Wharton.
"The late William T. Kelley, who taught Trump at the University of Pennsylvania, said, “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddamn student I ever had.” Tony Schwartz, the ghostwriter of “The Art of the Deal,” says Trump had “a stunning level of superficial knowledge and plain ignorance.”

Column: Donald Trump’s biggest flaw: He’s not that bright

Donald Trump has many serious flaws, including incorrigible dishonesty, rampant narcissism, contempt for women and a fashion sense that makes him think that hairstyle of his is flattering. But noth…

www.chicagotribune.com

 

[dank69]

Like it or not - the US economy is holding solid whereas China is showing its cracks and dependencies.

They just have less and less leverage to keep trying to hold the strong and ignorant stance.

lol

 

[K1052]

Reportedly Trump has approved the agreement...which doesn't seem any different than the agreement he supposedly came to with the Chinese two months ago. Which basically means to me he was getting nowhere fast. Effectively a partial tariff stand down in return for China to purchase 40$-50B worth of farm goods. At the most China ever bought just shy of $30B and really trended closer to $20B recently so my general expectation is that they might do some big buys to make a splash and give the impression they're living up then dial them down again. They'll never become heavily dependent on US supplies again.

Bigger picture this is a looooong way from the lofty aims of the trade war as stated by The Great Orange One. All we've really done is to shift around the trade deficit some, harm economic productivity at home, and splurge on an unprecedented payoff scheme to farmers for this moronic policy.

 

[Ajay]

Like it or not - the US economy is holding solid whereas China is showing its cracks and dependencies.

They just have less and less leverage to keep trying to hold the strong and ignorant stance.

China has more economic problems than the trade war alone.

Automation and outsourcing are killing China's core industrial sector. They saw this coming and have shifted much more investment towards hi-tech, but as we already know, those industries create a lot fewer jobs. They are also having problems with capital flight, reverse immigration, mass corruption and a long over inflated GDP (so their actual growth has been lower than reported). There is growing resistance to the 'belt and road' initiative which is also slowing expected growth. There’s more, but recently published papers and scrutiny by other economic powers and industry are generating a less optimistic outlook on China's ability to sustain the level of growth it needs.

 

[K1052]

Well alright the WSJ has a story that the Chinese don’t consider this a done deal and Trump is rage tweeting them over the story so...my presumption is the story is broadly accurate.

 

[ShookKnight]

U.S., China Agree to Limited Deal to Halt Trade War

Details emerged from the U.S.’s first-stage trade deal with China, which marked a milestone in President Trump’s initiative to rebalance trade with Beijing but left questions over how far it goes to level the playing field for U.S. businesses.

www.wsj.com

China will hold a press conference though; https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/chi...-one-trade-deal-with-the-us-in-principle.html

To the pro-Trump crowd; is this your 1st day supporting Trump? If it is, then you should look at his history... he is a failure.

 

[SMOGZINN]

Well alright the WSJ has a story that the Chinese don’t consider this a done deal and Trump is rage tweeting them over the story so...my presumption is the story is broadly accurate.

The trade deal, if there is one at all, is going to be a great big nothingburger. The fact is what Trump is most interested in is getting them to buy agricultural product, and that is the thing China is least interested in. China has already made deals with several South American countries to replace those agricultural deals, that is what all the burning of the rainforest was about earlier this year, they suddenly needed a lot more farmland because China is going to buy from them instead of us.
So, Trump's main item on his wishlist is now off the table.

 

[K1052]

Ok the Chinese have just announced US tariff policy. In any other administration that would be embarrassing.

 

[K1052]

Now Trump has to accept whatever the Chinese just announced or trash the markets. What a bigly negotiator the president is.

 

[K1052]

Trump is tweeting his view of the trade agreement details now which doesn’t really match what the Chinese government announced. This...doesn’t sound like a really firm thing if both sides are saying the other agreed to a different deal.

 

[Jhhnn]

Trump is tweeting his view of the trade agreement details now which doesn’t really match what the Chinese government announced. This...doesn’t sound like a really firm thing if both sides are saying the other agreed to a different deal.

So... Trump lies, as usual, right? It's a helluva thing for that presumption to be the only rational position available.

 

[K1052]

So... Trump lies, as usual, right? It's a helluva thing for that presumption to be the only rational position available.

I want to see his and his family’s finances because I’m very suspicious that they could be hugely profiting from all this lying. Criminals are going to crime and Trump thinks he’s owed.