Deal with China?

[Bitek]

People who learn from history have come to expect trivialities, lies, and empty boasting from our Bigly President.

That simply makes us observant.

Plus you'd actually have to trust the Chinese on this as well as Trump.

China hasn't publicly confirmed anything, and had asserted they can retain the right to shop the market and not violate WTO rules.

Overall they have wide latitude to operate in, and the only other part is off the deal is punting on more tariffs (which could further endanger the US economy and Trump's re-election.)

The difficult core issues are no where near worked out, and this overall looks to be a play for time/face saving.

We've seen this play many times before. Let's see who learned anything.

 

[interchange]

Most people are cautiously optimistic about the deal. Poor sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome are of course pretty unhappy with the planned deal. We'll see in the coming weeks how it plays out.

I'm certainly glad too if struggling farmers are able to have some more success.

I don't like deals built on a promise to buy. Unless there is a contract where the Chinese government will buy any deficit I'm that amount at a particular and competitive cost, it's basically meaningless. Otherwise, market conditions are what drives what happens.

 

[Jhhnn]

Most people are cautiously optimistic about the deal. Poor sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome are of course pretty unhappy with the planned deal. We'll see in the coming weeks how it plays out.

Trump does the dangling of false hope thing extremely well. I figure he & farmers are just fucked because the Chinese think long term. The last thing they want is for Trump to be re-elected regardless of the short term pain. They'll negotiate the way Israel has negotiated with the Pals for 40 years & watch Trump's electoral chances wither. Should he win, they'll deal with him afterwards.

It's interesting how they haven't said a word, not that I can find, anyway. Nothing.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

I would verify with a valid source.

I would too, that's just basic common sense in reference to something President Trump claims.

 

[K1052]

Looks like there is still a ways to go on this "phase one" deal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-talks-before-signing-trump-s-phase-one-deal

China Wants More Talks Before Signing Trump’s ‘Phase One’ Deal

China wants further talks as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of the “phase one” trade deal touted by Donald Trump before Xi Jinping agrees to sign it, according to people familiar with the matter.

Beijing may send a delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He, China’s top negotiator, to finalize a written deal that could be signed by the presidents at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month in Chile, one of the people said. Another person said China wants Trump to also scrap a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, something the administration hasn’t yet endorsed. The people asked not to be named discussing the private negotiations.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Whats your take on this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1183021805570801665

How long will it last? 12 hours? Is it legit? Tradewar with China over?

He's the boss.....LOL

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Latest update. Trump painting a rosey picture... Time will tell.

Just a reminder that 3 weeks ago they had reached a deal supposedly.

U.S., China reach substantial ‘phase one’ trade deal, Trump says

As part of the deal, China agrees to some agricultural concessions and the U.S. will delay a tariff increase due next week

business.financialpost.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1188824012257927169

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I'd love 12 full-service settings along with the other pieces from Royal Copenhagen "Flora Danica". I'd pay a hundred dollars because Trump has a deal with China!

 

[trenchfoot]

So Trump stupidly takes things away from those hard working folks, pisses them off and then gives half of it back to them thinking "that'll make them love me again".

Way to go Donny boy. Your dad would be so proud of you if he weren't turning over in his grave.

 

[K1052]

This isn't a deal it's a ceasefire. At best China might go back to buying ag products at something like they already were in 2017 (which I'm still skeptical on) while the US stands down some tariffs. He's just saying this stuff to pump equities as his political fortune sours.

All the claimed reasons for launching the trade war in the first place will be entirely unaddressed but he'll act like he's won. Totally fucking stupid.

 

[Jaskalas]

All the claimed reasons for launching the trade war in the first place will be entirely unaddressed but he'll act like he's won. Totally fucking stupid.

Trump.txt.

The quintessential plan of attack we need for 2020. Hammer him on his failures to live up to his false promises.

 

[fskimospy]

Latest update. Trump painting a rosey picture... Time will tell.

Just a reminder that 3 weeks ago they had reached a deal supposedly.

U.S., China reach substantial ‘phase one’ trade deal, Trump says

As part of the deal, China agrees to some agricultural concessions and the U.S. will delay a tariff increase due next week

business.financialpost.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1188824012257927169

Without waiting for time to tell let me tell you what it will actually entail - China will make minor, symbolic concessions while not giving up anything on the larger issues in exchange for the lowering of some US tariffs. Whatever concessions they do make will be ones they can immediately reverse if they feel like it.

Trump has already lost this trade war because he is the one person who literally can't win it because he can't make credible commitments so China couldn't capitulate even if it wanted to. China doesn't believe a word he says and thinks he's weak. Unless Trump wants to give up the farm they will simply wait him out or offer to go back to the status quo ante.

 

[Ajay]

Trump has already lost this trade war because he is the one person who literally can't win it because he can't make credible commitments so China couldn't capitulate even if it wanted to. China doesn't believe a word he says and thinks he's weak. Unless Trump wants to give up the farm they will simply wait him out or offer to go back to the status quo ante.

Bingo! Worse than just waiting him out, his unreliability has triggered events within China to decrease their reliance on US provided goods and services. Trump to a potentially advantageous situation and burned it too the ground.

 

[hal2kilo]

What could possibly go wrong with their bestest China expert.

Peter Navarro Invented an Expert for His Books, Based on Himself (Published 2019)

President Trump’s trade adviser frequently cited Ron Vara, a fictional source who was a critic of China, in his writings.

www.nytimes.com

 

[K1052]

What could possibly go wrong with their bestest China expert.

Peter Navarro Invented an Expert for His Books, Based on Himself (Published 2019)

President Trump’s trade adviser frequently cited Ron Vara, a fictional source who was a critic of China, in his writings.

www.nytimes.com

John Barron approves.

 

[Jhhnn]

Bingo! Worse than just waiting him out, his unreliability has triggered events within China to decrease their reliance on US provided goods and services. Trump to a potentially advantageous situation and burned it too the ground.

Ag producers have taken it in the ass for 2 years & likely another coming up. The Chinese are dug in & waiting until after the election. In the meanwhile, Trump gets nothing but the runaround.

 

[Ajay]

Ag producers have taken it in the ass for 2 years & likely another coming up. The Chinese are dug in & waiting until after the election. In the meanwhile, Trump gets nothing but the runaround.

Two things I wonder, how is Trump is handling big Ag, republican Congress critters must be getting getting an earful, they are not naive. And, will farming communities still vote for Trump.

 

[Jhhnn]

Two things I wonder, how is Trump is handling big Ag, republican Congress critters must be getting getting an earful, they are not naive. And, will farming communities still vote for Trump.

He's stringing Ag producers along with the usual GOP culture war wedge issues & false hope.

 

[Ajay]

He's stringing Ag producers along with the usual GOP culture war wedge issues & false hope.

The smaller producers, yes, big Ag are run clear thinking business people - there has to be some kind of understanding; some sort of quid pro quo, if you will. As I said, they are not fools.

 

[SMOGZINN]

The smaller producers, yes, big Ag are run clear thinking business people - there has to be some kind of understanding; some sort of quid pro quo, if you will. As I said, they are not fools.

So far he has just outright bought them with large chunks of government money. Why sell Ag products to China when the US will pay you to not sell them at all? That keeps this quarters profits up, so they are appeased.
He then backs that up with pie in the sky promises that when he 'wins' the trade war there will be even bigger profits then before. While big Ag might not quite believe him, they don't really have much power to do anything about it, so they are mostly just hoping for the best.
For now the growing season for those crops are over and they have time to wait and see what happens. Donnie has until about mid January to get some kind of deal or he will probably see some real backlash from Big Ag. But then again, we thought that last year too.

 

[dank69]

Two things I wonder, how is Trump is handling big Ag, republican Congress critters must be getting getting an earful, they are not naive. And, will farming communities still vote for Trump.

Farming communities would rather eat dirt than vote for a Democrat.

 

[zzyzxroad]

How is this deal coming along? I know China is busy working on RCEP so maybe after?

 

[JEDIYoda]

Most people are cautiously optimistic about the deal. Poor sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome are of course pretty unhappy with the planned deal. We'll see in the coming weeks how it plays out.

I seriously doubt that anyone with half a brain is even remotely optimistic! The elections are coming up! Trump will say whatever gets him votes.....
For example Trump stated that is the Supreme court did away with the Obama era DACA he would work with th4e Democrats to keep those people in the states...…...fat chance!! Trump is the same person whose charity staole millions of dollars from Veterans to pay bills....lolol

 

[SMOGZINN]

I seriously doubt that anyone with half a brain is even remotely optimistic! The elections are coming up! Trump will say whatever gets him votes.....
For example Trump stated that is the Supreme court did away with the Obama era DACA he would work with th4e Democrats to keep those people in the states...…...fat chance!! Trump is the same person whose charity staole millions of dollars from Veterans to pay bills....lolol

The problem is that there is little reason for China to make a deal. Here are the facts, China knows that Trump is micromanaging the negotiations with China. They know that Trump is up for reelection. They know that Trump is basing most of his reelection campaign on the economy. The know that being reelected is more important to him than making a good deal. Therefore they know that all they have to do is wait a few months and they will have ample leverage to squeeze Trump for everything they want.

China is just going to delay the talks for about 4 more months then their argument is going to be 'give us what we want, or we tank both of our economies. We will suffer for a few months, but you will lose your election for certain and then we can barging with your replacement, who is unlikely to have any appetite for a trade war.'

 

[Jhhnn]

The problem is that there is little reason for China to make a deal. Here are the facts, China knows that Trump is micromanaging the negotiations with China. They know that Trump is up for reelection. They know that Trump is basing most of his reelection campaign on the economy. The know that being reelected is more important to him than making a good deal. Therefore they know that all they have to do is wait a few months and they will have ample leverage to squeeze Trump for everything they want.

China is just going to delay the talks for about 4 more months then their argument is going to be 'give us what we want, or we tank both of our economies. We will suffer for a few months, but you will lose your election for certain and then we can barging with your replacement, who is unlikely to have any appetite for a trade war.'

Meh. The Chinese aren't giving Trump jack shit. That's right. Not a fucking thing. It would be stupid, like feeding the bears. Unlike Ukraine, they respond poorly to threats & bullying. They'll ride it out until after the election at which point Trump will hopefully be gone.