EVERYBODY talking about how much $$ software piracy is actually costing on either side of the argument is talking out their ass. 5%, 10%, 50% of overall sales? The fact is that no one has any idea whatsoever. If a million copies of a game are downloaded illegally, it is impossible to say what percentage of the people who pirated the game would have actually bought it if the illegal copy was not available and that is the one and only number that actually means anything to anyone - lost sales. There aren't any reliable, or for that matter, any statistics which indicate what percentage of pirates would have bought the game had they not pirated it. Nor are we likely to ever have any such numbers.
A company will obviously want to minimize all losses, but Crytek's claim that their sales were poor because of piracy is dubious, at best. They do not have any idea of how much piracy actually cost them. It is certainly reasonable to assume that at least some of those who pirated the game would have bought it, but whether that percentage would have made any significant difference to the sales numbers is unknown.
My pulled-out-of-my-ass opinion is that the losses are not as significant as they are made out to be. You have to keep in mind that the people crying that their games didn't sell because of piracy are the same people whose jobs depend on their games selling well and need to come up with a good explanation if the do not. Most of them aren't going to come out and say "the game didn't sell because I did a piss-poor job and the game ended up being a bloody mess. I'm an idiot and should be fired. "
The other thing to keep in mind that people are a lot more careful about which games they buy for $50 vs. the games they download for free. Ever download crap free/shareware that you'd never consider paying for? How many cars would you have if you didn't have to pay for any of them?
I would suspect that most people who pirate games pirate not just one but many, and most of the ones they download they would have never actually purchased. That pirate may only be able to afford to buy one or two games if they had to actually buy them, but may download a hundred. If you consider a relatively small number of such "100-games-a-year pirates," say 100,000, exist worldwide, they would be responsible for 10,000,000 illegal game downloads annually, but the actual number of games they would have bought would only be 100,000 - 200,000. So on paper, that's an approximate loss of $500 million to the game industry, when the actual loss would be closer to $5 - $10 million. Add a million people worldwide who pirate say twenty games a year, and you get some really, really big numbers when you're talking illegal downloads, but relatively small numbers when you are talking lost profits. Again, I'm pulling numbers out of my butt, but they are not any less valid than the numbers pulled of the game industry butts.