Crime rates in liberal cities shockingly higher than in conservative cities

[MooseNSquirrel]

Anyone ever heard of confirmation bias?

It's pretty easy to fall for, especially when you don't dig deep enough because something already supports your conclusion.

The reality is, you just end up looking like an idiot.

QFE.

Can we add bad science to that? The following paragraph from the "article" (ha) is a wonderful example of it. The author does nothing to prove his theory and then pulls out 2 more pet theories of why the first pet theory might be true....without making a case for any of it.

"So there is a clear correlation here: Cities with a lot of violent crime tend to vote Democratic, while cities with relatively low levels of violent crime tend to vote Republican. But what is behind this discrepancy? Is it that conservative cities have tougher anti-crime laws than liberal cities, which work to deter violent criminals? Is it that conservatives are more likely to be armed than liberals, so cities full of conservative citizens act as a deterrent against violent crime?

Or is it simply that Democratic voters themselves are just more likely to commit violent crimes than Republican voters?"

 

[sunzt]

Wow, who would have ever guessed that demographic makeup of the cities might have something to do with it as well as political viewpoints. Fancy that.


The 15 most liberal cities in the US:

- Detroit, Michigan - 24 violent crimes/1,000 residents 82.7% black
- Gary, Indiana - 15 violent crimes/1,000 residents 84.8% black
- Berkeley, California - 5 violent crimes/1,000 residents 10.0% Black
- Washington, DC - 13 violent crimes/1,000 residents 50.7% Black
- Oakland, California - 16 violent crimes/1,000 residents 28.0% black
- Inglewood, California - 8 violent crimes/1,000 residents 43.9% Black
- Newark, New Jersey - 11 violent crimes/1,000 residents 52.35% Black
- Cambridge, Massachusetts - 5 violent crimes/1,000 residents 11.70% Black
- San Francisco, California - 7 violent crimes/1,000 residents 6.1% Black
- Flint, Michigan - 24 violent crimes/1,000 residents 53.27% Black
- Cleveland, Ohio - 14 violent crimes/1,000 residents 53.3% Black
- Hartford, Connecticut - 13 violent crimes/1,000 residents 38.7% Black
- Paterson, New Jersey - 11 violent crimes/1,000 residents 31.68% Black
- Baltimore, Maryland - 15 violent crimes/1,000 residents 63.7% Black
- New Haven, Connecticut - 15 violent crimes/1,000 residents 35.4% Black


The 15 most conservative cities in the US:

- Provo, Utah - 2 violent crimes/1,000 residents 0.7% Black
- Lubbock, Texas - 9 violent crimes/1,000 residents 8.6% Black
- Abilene, Texas - 5 violent crimes/1,000 residents 8.81% Black
- Hialeah, Florida - 4 violent crimes/1,000 residents 2.7% Black
- Plano, Texas - 2 violent crimes/1,000 residents 7.6% Black
- Colorado Springs, Colorado - 5 violent crimes/1,000 residents 6.3% Black
- Gilbert, Arizona - 1 violent crime/1,000 residents 3.08% Black
- Bakersfield, California - 6 violent crimes/1,000 residents 8.2% Black
- Lafayette, Louisiana - 8 violent crimes/1,000 residents 28.51% Black
- Orange, California - 1 violent crime/1,000 residents 1.6% Black
- Escondido, California - 4 violent crimes/1,000 residents 2.5% Black
- Allentown, Pennsylvania - 6 violent crimes/1,000 residents 12.5% Black
- Mesa, Arizona - 4 violent crimes/1,000 residents 3.5% Black
- Arlington, Texas - 5 violent crimes/1,000 residents 20% Black
- Peoria, Arizona - 2 violent crimes/1,000 residents 2.78% Black

I'm just quoting.... not saying ANYTHING..... although inglewood may be an exception.

 

[Phanuel]

Why don't we also include the total population numbers for these cities? I'm sure the conservative havens are also relatively low pop compared to the liberal ones.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Why don't we also include the total population numbers for these cities? I'm sure the conservative havens are also relatively low pop compared to the liberal ones.

Did some quick math using Wikipedia's latest population data for these cities, and the liberal cities have 90,000 more residents on average. The population figures are actually reasonably close between both lists for the most part, but the liberal cities list includes Detroit, San Francisco, Washington DC and Baltimore, which all have around 200,000+ more people than the highest conservative city, Mesa, AZ. If you get rid of the top 4 cities from each list, the liberal cities only have 10,000 more residents on average.

 

[Phanuel]

Did some quick math using Wikipedia's latest population data for these cities, and the liberal cities have 90,000 more residents on average. The population figures are actually reasonably close between both lists for the most part, but the liberal cities list includes Detroit, San Francisco, Washington DC and Baltimore, which all have around 200,000+ more people than the highest conservative city, Mesa, AZ. If you get rid of the top 4 cities from each list, the liberal cities only have 10,000 more residents on average.

Well then, I guess we're stuck with racial diversity being the biggest outlier that could contribute to any differences.

 

[ivwshane]

Well then, I guess we're stuck with racial diversity being the biggest outlier that could contribute to any differences.

No, I'd say population density is the bigger factor. But there are so many other factors that anyone who thinks political leaning had any real impact is just retarded.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Well then, I guess we're stuck with racial diversity being the biggest outlier that could contribute to any differences.

I'd argue economics. I don't have the time now, but from a cursory glance, the liberal cities, especially those with lower populations (Gary, IN and Flint, MI for example) have extremely depressed economies with lower per capita income and higher unemployment. Economic factors are almost always a better indicator of crime rates than a locations political make up.

Also, it's worth noting that this is a snapshot study, done using data from a single presidential election. GWB was both extremely unpopular with African Americans (which explains why the cities on the liberal list seem to have larger black populations) and relatively popular within his own state (which explains why 25% of the conservative cities are in Texas). That points to a flawed methodology, as a vote for a 2004 Presidential candidate is the sole indicator of "liberal" vs "conservative." Do those trends hold true for the last two Presidential elections, or for midterm or local elections? We don't know. Maybe the factors at play in that specific election aren't indicative of other long-term trends in the political ideology of these locations.

 

[CountZero]

Facts never seem to mean anything to liberals.

Of course criminals know they are safer in these mindless bastions of anti-gun mentality and anti-gun laws. A home owner screaming "I've called 911" only tells the criminal that they have at least 10 minutes before they need to think about leaving.

The criminal knows they are much more likely to meet with an armed homeowner that will call 911 only after they have shot the BG.

Sorry, I don't give gun toting criminals this much credit. Criminals participating in property or violent crime (basically anyone not involved in white collar crime) are not the sharpest tools in the shed. The are more likely to be poorly educated at best. To think they are 1) taking into account gun control laws at all and 2) migrating because of more strict gun laws is laughable.

Since gun control is pretty much reactionary in this country I think it's probably more likely that areas with more crime end up with stricter gun control as an attempt to control said crime.

As for the article, let's limit it to cities with population greater than 500k and see how it looks. Or break it down by population bands. I don't have any idea how that would work out but it would at least be a fair comparison not some weird partisan circle jerk.