COVID "True" mortality rate?

[JEDIYoda]

I can only speak for myself, but I live in Riverside and I don't know a single person who's gotten tested. That doesn't mean a single person I know has COVID-19, but if I don't know anyone who's gotten tested. I gotta wonder how many people in Riverside potentially have it and don't even know. Obviously they would start to show signs, but there's that multiple week period where a person can have it and show zero symptoms. Definitely makes me not want to leave the house unless it's for a good reason. Your numbers could be spot on, or low. I don't think they're high though, and that's scary to think about.

I live in Monterey County and for a population of approx. 450,000 -- as of today 5 people have died of Covid and only approx. 1,000 people have even been tested for covid!!
It is very difficult to get tested, even if you are a medical professional!
My Pulmonologist had to go to Stanford Medical center to get tested! It came back negative! I understand that now you can get tested but to get tested you a;lmost have to have covid......so go figure!!

 

[Wreckem]

I live in Monterey County and for a population of approx. 450,000 -- as of today 5 people have died of Covid and only approx. 1,000 people have even been tested for covid!!
It is very difficult to get tested, even if you are a medical professional!
My Pulmonologist had to go to Stanford Medical center to get tested! It came back negative! I understand that now you can get tested but to get tested you a;lmost have to have covid......so go figure!!

for as bad as that is in CA, Texas is 2nd to worst in testing and decided to have a hold my beer moment when it pretty much reopened almost everything with limitations. Not only did we reopen without adequate testing but people are not abiding the limitations set by the State.

that doesn’t get to the massive outbreak in west Texas that they cannot quantify how bad it is because testing is even a bigger shit show in Texas once you get outside major metro areas.

Theres also corruption and deception going on. In my county the state had a free public testing day that they coordinated with the county government. The county judge told the county employees not to tell the public about the testing and that only county employees that he’s was given names for were allowed to get tested. Same county judge also initially refused to disclose the cities in the county of where positive cases occurred. He had to reverse course on that.

In a town of about 20,000 we have had officially 61 cases and 1 death. The odds are this number is much higher. Testing is still hard to obtain in the DFW metro area if you aren’t in Dallas or Tarrant.

 

[JEDIYoda]

for as bad as that is in CA, Texas is 2nd to worst in testing and decided to have a hold my beer moment when it pretty much reopened almost everything with limitations. Not only did we reopen without adequate testing but people are abiding the limitations set by the State.

that doesn’t get to the massive outbreak in west Texas that they cannot quantify how bad it is because testing is even a bigger shit show in Texas once you get outside major metro areas.

Theres also corruption and deception going on. In my county the state had a free public testing day that they coordinated with the county government. The county judge told the county employees not to tell the public about the testing and that only county employees that he’s was given names for were allowed to get tested.

Yet, the Trump administration has doubled down on insisting anybody can get tested.....we have the greatest testing in the world---barfff!!

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

Yet, the Trump administration has doubled down on insisting anybody can get tested.....we have the greatest testing in the world---barfff!!

I think he is technically correct (per capita) but also at the same time we need a lot more. Especially if we're going to go full stupid and 'get back to work'.

 

[JEDIYoda]

I think he is technically correct but also at the same time we need a lot more. Especially if we're going to go full stupid and 'get back to work'.

really?????? Your kidding??? Try going out and getting tested.....that will not happen unless you actually have the virus and it is very obvious....the common person cannot get tested.....you actually believe it is true?? just Wow!!

 

[soundforbjt]

I think he is technically correct (per capita) but also at the same time we need a lot more. Especially if we're going to go full stupid and 'get back to work'.

Nope, even with the edit it's still not true.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

really?????? Your kidding??? Try going out and getting tested.....that will not happen unless you actually have the virus and it is very obvious....the common person cannot get tested.....you actually believe it is true?? just Wow!!

I was talking about per capita and amount of tests administered. Everyone definitely cannot get tested right now which is a big problem. In order to really open up safely I think 50 percent or more minimum of people need to have been tested.

 

[abj13]

I was talking about per capita and amount of tests administered. Everyone definitely cannot get tested right now which is a big problem. In order to really open up safely I think 50 percent or more minimum of people need to have been tested.

How would that help anything? Many people test negative before the onset of symptoms, so even if you tested them today, what's going to stop them from becoming infectious in four days? Unfortunately, the logistics of trying to run 160 million tests all at once would be impossible to get those results back in a meaningful amount of time to inform people whether they should stay at home or not.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

How would that help anything? Many people test negative before the onset of symptoms, so even if you tested them today, what's going to stop them from becoming infectious in four days? Unfortunately, the logistics of trying to run 160 million tests all at once would be impossible to get those results back in a meaningful amount of time to inform people whether they should stay at home or not.

Well that makes sense if true. So there really is no true 100% sure way to go about this. Takes days to weeks to show symptoms, sometimes no symptoms at all, some people get nothing, some die horrible deaths. This thing really is completely fucked up.

 

[skyking]

The best figures to see the overall impact of the outbreak will be the overall number of people dying compared to previous years.

You dont have to worry about if enough testing is done or if someone died "with" COVID Or "from" COVID. It's also pretty hard to fudge that figure (I'm assuming that the US is pretty robust on reporting deaths).

This is how we tally seasonal flu deaths. You just look at the amount of deaths over the norm if theres an identifiable outbreak. Obviously you have to take account of any circumstances that would affect the totals but the number of deaths here is big enough that thered have to be something really major to skew them (9/11 for instance would just be static in this).

Exactly. The rate of deaths month to month year to year reveals the holes that are bound to exist in any test and identification program.
For example, my sister's ex died Thursday with symptoms that are very suspicious, but the test results were negative. Of course we know that there are many problems with the tests. We ( including his physician daughter ) don't know the exact test used. We don't have confidence that it was NOT covid19. It was in a county that has the highest per capita infection rate on the western states.
Using the death rate calculations, his death will be looked at as some factor greater than 0 that it was covid related. Certainly people die from sudden collapse and what looked like a total organ failure due to some form of sepsis. When there's a huge spike in that, it will get looked at properly.
In the end you will see stats that say "deaths were up XX% for the last 10 months of 2020" and it's not hard at all to see.

 

[Ajay]

Maybe useful chart from John Hopkins:

 

[brycejones]

I think he is technically correct (per capita) but also at the same time we need a lot more. Especially if we're going to go full stupid and 'get back to work'.

Not even fucking close there are dozens of countries that have higher testing rates than we do.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 138,024,148 Cases and 2,972,039 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Sort the column for testing per 1m population in descending order and then scroll to find the US.

 

[MtnMan]

Yet, the Trump administration has doubled down on insisting anybody can get tested.....we have the greatest testing in the world---barfff!!

Trump doesn't want people tested, as it will show exactly how badly he has screwed the whole country. This is why states are having to receive deliveries from other countries on the down-low, then place them under guard by state police in undisclosed locations to prevent the Feds from flat out stealing them. Not so they can be used elsewhere, but so they won't be used.

Trump is very complicit in the deaths of thousands. If a corporate CEO did this, there would be criminal charges filed.

We do not have a president, we have a corrupt, stupid, mob boss, who doesn't give a damn about anyone outside of his family and friends.

 

[skyking]

Not even fucking close there are dozens of countries that have higher testing rates than we do.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 138,024,148 Cases and 2,972,039 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Sort the column for testing per 1m population in descending order and then scroll to find the US.

Thanks.
We could be there if we took South Korea's example and working test but oh no, we have to make our own fucked up faulty tests, but these are "murican tests now, best in the world we have very good tests and anyone can get tested. It's tremendous, the job we are doing with these tests.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

How is it a meaningless stat?

If you get any communicable disease, you either get better or you die. The ratio of those that live vs. die is the mortality rate. Granted it will be a more accurate figure when a larger sample can be counted.

You have to get two negative tests back to back to be considered recovered after having tested positive. I doubt many of the people who tested positive are able to get those follow-up tests.

 

[MtnMan]

You have to get two negative tests back to back to be considered recovered after having tested positive. I doubt many of the people who tested positive are able to get those follow-up tests.

annnnnnnnd.... neither of us know what standard is being used to classify them as 'recovered' ... but nit's will be picked.

 

[skyking]

eventually the hope is to get an effective, accurate and fast antibody test. Right now the testing is all over the board with accuracy.

 

[eelw]

You have to get two negative tests back to back to be considered recovered after having tested positive. I doubt many of the people who tested positive are able to get those follow-up tests.

Indeed. Many are just told, you test positive, once 14 days up, you’re basically good to go. Not symptom free for 14 days.

But here in Toronto, more reported recovered cases than new cases constantly.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

annnnnnnnd.... neither of us know what standard is being used to classify them as 'recovered' ... but nit's will be picked.

That's pretty much the worldwide standard.