COVID "True" mortality rate?

[MtnMan]

When should the mortality rate actually be calculated?

When based on the number of cases, the mortality rate is 5.8% (using today's numbers for total cases/deaths), but these cases have not resolved where the person lives vs. dies. Many with active cases will live, and many will die.

If you look at the numbers for cases that have resolved (recovered vs. died) the mortality rate is stunning, with a 27% mortality rate in the US.

The numbers for the world are better than the numbers for the US (thanks to the orange shit stain probably) with a mortality rate of 6.9% based on total cases, but rises to 17% when based on cases that have resolved.

	Total cases	Total deaths	Mortality rate %	Resolved cases	Mortality rate %
US	1,234,000	72,000	5.8%	271,000	26.5%
World	3,715,000	257,000	6.9%	1,493,000	17.2%

A couple of takeaways

1. This ain't the fucking flu!
2. The US which represents 4.3% of the worlds population yet represents 28% of the worlds COVID deaths!

Thanks Trump for yet another example of your complete incompetence.

The CDC estimates that 160,000,000 to 214,000,000 people could get COVID-19 during the epidemic. 26% of that would mean 40 - 50 million dead.

Or it will magically disappear.

 

[interchange]

What you are referring to is case fatality rate. And that is always known deaths / known cases. Yeah, the numbers get skewed lower when the number of new cases is expanding rapidly. Since the severe illness until death has a fairly long course 2+ weeks, the numbers have to get sufficiently large to mitigate this effect. Of course, this also depends on how many cases which don't end in fatality are actually getting caught via earlier testing which of course is something constantly evolving. As well as treatment efficacy, availability of resources, etc.

Morality is a different figure, and that relies on best estimates of actual cases instead of confirmed cases and estimates of projected deaths when there are active cases without either clearing or resulting in death yet.

 

[TheVrolok]

CFR is probably really quite low. Probably. Won't know for quite some time, though.

 

[Jaskalas]

In NYC 25% of the people already test positive as having had COVID-19.

The death rate is NOTHING like you imagine it, because there is no widespread testing of our population. You have not used an accurate number for counting cases.

 

[hardhat]

True. Health authorities are only counting confirmed cases, and due to the lack of testing supplies available only severely ill people have been tested (or others in specific cases, like healthcare workers). But NY is also a special case in my opinion. Extreme density and early exposure lead to a very high rate of spread. I'd guess in my community the prevalence is more like 0.5% (12 confirmed cases in the county to date).

 

[interchange]

CFR is probably really quite low. Probably. Won't know for quite some time, though.

? Case fatality is simply deaths / diagnosed cases. It's mortality that's harder to calculate since many cases are not diagnosed.

 

[TheVrolok]

? Case fatality is simply deaths / diagnosed cases. It's mortality that's harder to calculate since many cases are not diagnosed.

You're right. I'm being a loose with terminology and speaking more colloquially which I shouldn't. The title is asking about "true mortality" which is why your initial post is absolutely correct.

 

[compuwiz1]

What about deaths that are attributed to something else, but the patient ALSO had COVID-19? There are people who would have died anyway, not due to COVID-19 as primary cause. Are those accurately accounted for?

 

[brycejones]

What about deaths that are attributed to something else, but the patient ALSO had COVID-19? There are people who would have died anyway, not due to COVID-19 as primary cause. Are those accurately accounted for?

Would they have lived longer without covid-19? I have cancer and will die in 2 months from it, I get covid-19 and die 6 weeks before that because of complications from covid-19. Covid-19 killed me not the cancer.

In hard hit areas the death rate above what would normally be expected is higher than the current deaths attributed to covid-19 through testing. Most likely we're still under counting covid-19 deaths.

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests (Published 2020)

There have been some 20,000 more deaths than would be expected over all, and thousands more than have been captured in the city’s official coronavirus statistics.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Jhhnn]

In NYC 25% of the people already test positive as having had COVID-19.

The death rate is NOTHING like you imagine it, because there is no widespread testing of our population. You have not used an accurate number for counting cases.

The accuracy & reliability of various antibody tests is highly suspect. The number of people seeking medical attention & the mortality rate among them is much, much higher than seasonal flu. Covid-19 is a very, very bad bug. Hot spots? The whole country will be a hot spot in a coupla months. We could easily have half a million dead by November.

 

[woolfe9998]

"Resolved cases" is a meaningless stat. It's not really being tracked consistently. If you're taking that statistic seriously, you are assuming people who got this 2 months ago still aren't "resolved." I'm just ignoring it.

 

[Greenman]

In NYC 25% of the people already test positive as having had COVID-19.

The death rate is NOTHING like you imagine it, because there is no widespread testing of our population. You have not used an accurate number for counting cases.

This is what I've always assumed. How can mortality rate be determined if we don't how many people have the virus? Isn't half of the equation missing? Related to that, how large of a sample and how wide spread must it be to come up with a reasonable estimate of infection rate?

 

[pmv]

CFR is probably really quite low. Probably. Won't know for quite some time, though.

Does it not depend what is meant by 'low'?

I'm still, in the absence of better data, sticking with the hypothesis that it's about 1.5%. Based on the NYC sample study and the historically-excess deaths data. (and also the Diamond Princess data). Absolutely accept that's not much more than a guestimate, and that it's going to be extremely hard to say with any confidence for a long time yet. Obviously it's much lower than the crude figure calculated in the OP. I'm fairly sure its 'much worse than flu' though. No serving PM has ever been put into intensive care by seasonal flu.

Any view on this suggestion that the flu fatality rate is itself over-stated?

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

The more this pandemic goes on the more I start to think I maybe don't know anything about anything.

 

[MtnMan]

"Resolved cases" is a meaningless stat. It's not really being tracked consistently. If you're taking that statistic seriously, you are assuming people who got this 2 months ago still aren't "resolved." I'm just ignoring it.

How is it a meaningless stat?

If you get any communicable disease, you either get better or you die. The ratio of those that live vs. die is the mortality rate. Granted it will be a more accurate figure when a larger sample can be counted.

 

[JEDIYoda]

What you are referring to is case fatality rate. And that is always known deaths / known cases. Yeah, the numbers get skewed lower when the number of new cases is expanding rapidly. Since the severe illness until death has a fairly long course 2+ weeks, the numbers have to get sufficiently large to mitigate this effect. Of course, this also depends on how many cases which don't end in fatality are actually getting caught via earlier testing which of course is something constantly evolving. As well as treatment efficacy, availability of resources, etc.

Morality is a different figure, and that relies on best estimates of actual cases instead of confirmed cases and estimates of projected deaths when there are active cases without either clearing or resulting in death yet.

It doesn`t matter in the least his point still stands....until somebody knocks it over,,,which you did not!!

 

[woolfe9998]

How is it a meaningless stat?

If you get any communicable disease, you either get better or you die. The ratio of those that live vs. die is the mortality rate. Granted it will be a more accurate figure when a larger sample can be counted.

I'm not saying it isn't an important statistic. I'm saying these recoveries are not being identified and logged into the system consistently, so the statistic is way off from reality. In the US, right now we have 1.237 million reported cases, 72,000 deaths, and 200,000 "recovered." But we've been accumulating these cases since January, and aggressively since early March. If that "recovered" number is accurate, that would mean a majority of those who got this 8 weeks or more ago still haven't "recovered." Another way of looking at it is that this statistic means that roughly 1 million cases are still classified as active without recovery. Yet the disease course typically runs 2-6 weeks depending on severity.

Something is wrong with the statistic. It appears it is being under-reported. It may be as simple as, someone has mild symptoms, goes to the doctor to get tested, tests positive, and is sent home with instructions to come back if it gets bad. It never gets bad so the patient never returns and his "recovery" isn't logged because the provider is never made aware of it. I bet that type of scenario happens a lot. Maybe some providers follow up by calling all their positive CV patients while others don't.

 

[WelshBloke]

The best figures to see the overall impact of the outbreak will be the overall number of people dying compared to previous years.

You dont have to worry about if enough testing is done or if someone died "with" COVID Or "from" COVID. It's also pretty hard to fudge that figure (I'm assuming that the US is pretty robust on reporting deaths).

This is how we tally seasonal flu deaths. You just look at the amount of deaths over the norm if theres an identifiable outbreak. Obviously you have to take account of any circumstances that would affect the totals but the number of deaths here is big enough that thered have to be something really major to skew them (9/11 for instance would just be static in this).

 

[BonzaiDuck]

I notice that no one yet mentioned the Stanford/Santa-Clara study. They concluded that "reported" cases extrapolate to between 50 and 80 times that number of actually infected -- either asymptomatic, symptomatic or mortalities.

I keep track of the case stats in my incorporated city area -- Riverside, CA. Today, we have just two short of 700 cases, maybe something like 60 deaths -- I'll have to check again. But 700 might be indicative of 35,000 to 56,000. Riverside city has a population of 350,000. One speculates that this would mean that every tenth person one encounters -- on average -- is infected.

Then, there's the recent news of test simulations done to assess the aerosol dispersion capability of a human cough. They discovered that particles would travel nine feet -- not just six -- without a mask covering the subject's face. With a mask, aerosol particles would still travel maybe four feet.

 

[Meghan54]

This is how we tally seasonal flu deaths. You just look at the amount of deaths over the norm if theres an identifiable outbreak. Obviously you have to take account of any circumstances that would affect the totals but the number of deaths here is big enough that thered have to be something really major to skew them (9/11 for instance would just be static in this).

No, it's not how we tally seasonal flu deaths. We use an estimate, not an actual count. We've never actually counted the true number of flu deaths each year. You ought to read up on the subject before pontificating like you intimately know something you don't.

From the Scientific American:

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

Read.

Learn.

Know.

 

[QueBert]

I notice that no one yet mentioned the Stanford/Santa-Clara study. They concluded that "reported" cases extrapolate to between 50 and 80 times that number of actually infected -- either asymptomatic, symptomatic or mortalities.

I keep track of the case stats in my incorporated city area -- Riverside, CA. Today, we have just two short of 700 cases, maybe something like 60 deaths -- I'll have to check again. But 700 might be indicative of 35,000 to 56,000. Riverside city has a population of 350,000. One speculates that this would mean that every tenth person one encounters -- on average -- is infected.

Then, there's the recent news of test simulations done to assess the aerosol dispersion capability of a human cough. They discovered that particles would travel nine feet -- not just six -- without a mask covering the subject's face. With a mask, aerosol particles would still travel maybe four feet.

I can only speak for myself, but I live in Riverside and I don't know a single person who's gotten tested. That doesn't mean a single person I know has COVID-19, but if I don't know anyone who's gotten tested. I gotta wonder how many people in Riverside potentially have it and don't even know. Obviously they would start to show signs, but there's that multiple week period where a person can have it and show zero symptoms. Definitely makes me not want to leave the house unless it's for a good reason. Your numbers could be spot on, or low. I don't think they're high though, and that's scary to think about.

 

[cytg111]

In NYC 25% of the people already test positive as having had COVID-19.

The death rate is NOTHING like you imagine it, because there is no widespread testing of our population. You have not used an accurate number for counting cases.

That is one side of the balance the other is that not all covid19 deaths is being reported as such.

 

[abj13]

I notice that no one yet mentioned the Stanford/Santa-Clara study. They concluded that "reported" cases extrapolate to between 50 and 80 times that number of actually infected -- either asymptomatic, symptomatic or mortalities.

I keep track of the case stats in my incorporated city area -- Riverside, CA. Today, we have just two short of 700 cases, maybe something like 60 deaths -- I'll have to check again. But 700 might be indicative of 35,000 to 56,000. Riverside city has a population of 350,000. One speculates that this would mean that every tenth person one encounters -- on average -- is infected.

Then, there's the recent news of test simulations done to assess the aerosol dispersion capability of a human cough. They discovered that particles would travel nine feet -- not just six -- without a mask covering the subject's face. With a mask, aerosol particles would still travel maybe four feet.

The Stanford study has some major problems that have been discussed in other threads on here. The authors have produced a revised manuscript where they have decreased their estimates, but some of the issues they cannot fix (they recruited subjects through Facebook, NOT a random sampling of subjects). Some analysis by other statisticians still place their estimates as too high. The authors also have some major conflicts of interest as they wrote a WSJ opinion piece well before their study where they stated that shutdown orders are unnecessary. I would overall not put much weight into that study. Its too flawed, too much conflict of interest, the authors were too quick to get their "opinions" out there despite their mistakes in study design and analysis.

 

[WelshBloke]

No, it's not how we tally seasonal flu deaths. We use an estimate, not an actual count. We've never actually counted the true number of flu deaths each year. You ought to read up on the subject before pontificating like you intimately know something you don't.

From the Scientific American:

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

Read.

Learn.

Know.

Read The "How we should interpret the death toll" bit.

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll

The rising number of coronavirus deaths is distressing. But what are the figures actually telling us?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Atari2600]

Your better using the nDeaths/nCases numbers from countries with extensive testing campaigns.

Germany & South Korea would be two good examples.

In which case your looking at a case fatality rate of ~3%.

 

[sportage]

DANGER.... DAMGER.... WARNING..... WARNING.... WILL ROBINSON

Soon, Americans won't get diddly squat from this Trump government on WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON concerning the virus.
Mark my words and TAKE NOTE of what Donald Trump is NOW DOING and NOW PLANNING TO DO.

Because THE PANDEMIC is a Debbie Downer for Donald Trump and his re-election chances, Donald Trump is about to CEASE and DESIST any and all legitimate pandemic information going out to the American public. Donald Trump will this week dismantle his Coronavirus Task Force claiming that THE TASK FORCE IS NO LONGER NEEDED.
CLAIMING THAT.... we have passed the initial phase of this pandemic and his task force has now brought everything under control.
Donald Trump will switch from pandemic mode to OPEN EVERYTHING UP mode. AND.... do that willing and with totally ignoring the dangers to Americans. Bottom line, Donald wants to PRETEND that everything is great again and thus all Americans should RETURN TO WORK. Return to the theaters, the restaurants, the bars, the gyms, return to everything people did before the virus.

Donald Trump is about to block all information about the virus and the pandemic. No more numbers, no more stats, no more anything. And shocking as this will be, Donald Trump has already corrupted the CDC with complicity in this scheme to keep America ignorant of the reality. AND.... dare any truthful accurate information penetrate that Donald Trump bubble America lives within, Donald Trump will waste no time with labeling that FAKE NEWS then ensure that no further truthful information survives.
America is about to leave Twilight Zone Earth edition and enter into Twilight Zone The Alternate Universe. In that universe this pandemic will reach tragic levels of infections and deaths all due to citizens ignoring the rules of a pandemic. It's all ok BECAUSE, Donald Trump said so.... The people WILL come out again. People WILL return to work. People WILL do everything they should not be doing. People WILL become infected. People WILL die. People WILL do all of this because Donald Trump WILL tell the people that everything is just peachy once again.

DONALD TRUMP is about to enact the most massive all inclusive propaganda campaign EVER in human history. People will deny the deaths, deny the infections, deny the dangers, deny the pandemic itself. While nearly all of America will fall victim to Covid 19 by becoming infected and then by dying, Americans will be kept in the dark. Knowing nothing of the virus, of the deaths, or of the continuing dangers. Donald Trump will corrupt our entire form of government to conceal the truth from the American people. And.... it will all begin this week the day that Donald Trump dismantles his Covid 19 task force by claiming EVERYTHING IS JUST FINE AND AMERICA CAN GO BACK TO WORK.