Could Iran be next

[DCal430]

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/1...ches-leading-up-to-planned-rally-sources-say/

After the success of the Egyptian rally could we see a emergence of the green movement in Iran. Could Iran be the next place we see a real progress in freedom and democracy.

I hope so, lets hope for a ripple effect and a toppling of dictators everywhere.

 

[amdhunter]

The only thing Iran will be next for is when we carpet bomb the spit out of it in the name of God.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

I think you have it backwards. Iran is not going to follow Egypt, Egypt is going to follow what happened in the 1970s in Iran. It will become more Islamic and extreme and cut itself off more from the west.

 

[silverpig]

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2142727

 

[DCal430]

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2142727

I wanted to focus more on Iran.

 

[ManBearPig]

No, obviously as seen a little while ago, the uranium government will use any force necessary to stop the professors.

 

[ElFenix]

the difference between iran and egypt/tunisia is that iran's government is strongly backed by the pasdaran and basij military/militia groups. the military is not going to sit on the sidelines like in egypt. we saw this back in 2009. it will be much more difficult for mass demostrations in iran than it has been in the arab world so far.

 

[Arkaign]

the difference between iran and egypt/tunisia is that iran's government is strongly backed by the pasdaran and basij military/militia groups. the military is not going to sit on the sidelines like in egypt. we saw this back in 2009. it will be much more difficult for mass demostrations in iran than it has been in the arab world so far.

This is true, there isn't that immediate cultural brotherhood thing that Arab nations 'get' with the spread of demonstrations from Tunisia to Egypt to etc. now.

There also isn't any firm guarantee what will become of Egypt. It doesn't seem incredibly likely that they will become an Islamic state / Sharia law or something that dramatic, as the populace isn't remotely in the same state of mind that the Iranians were in during the late '70s, and the Islamic Brotherhood aren't even suggesting one of their leaders take over or be considered for PM/President/etc.

 

[0roo0roo]

 

[Nebor]

I think you have it backwards. Iran is not going to follow Egypt, Egypt is going to follow what happened in the 1970s in Iran. It will become more Islamic and extreme and cut itself off more from the west.

Yup. This is nothing new in the scheme of the middle east. Anyone thinking a better, more progressive government is going to result is kidding themselves.

 

[DCal430]

Yup. This is nothing new in the scheme of the middle east. Anyone thinking a better, more progressive government is going to result is kidding themselves.

There is nothing wrong with hope. While the possibility is there for things to get worst, most decent people have hope they won't.

 

[Nebor]

There is nothing wrong with hope. While the possibility is there for things to get worst, most decent people have hope they won't.

The only place "hope" that exists in the middle east is in Israel. The rest is a sea of savages, that when given a chance to determine their fate, choose savagery 100% of the time.

 

[MotF Bane]

P&N.

 

[DCal430]

The only place "hope" that exists in the middle east is in Israel. The rest is a sea of savages, that when given a chance to determine their fate, choose savagery 100% of the time.

D: Really you have to be joking.

 

[DCal430]

P&N.

I am new here, what is wrong with having this in this section.

 

[ProfJohn]

Jordan is probably next or perhaps Saudi Arabia.

The best thing we can do to help them along is by building lots of Walmarts and introducing them to cheap Chinese goods.

 

[DCal430]

Jordan is probably next or perhaps Saudi Arabia.

The best thing we can do to help them along is by building lots of Walmarts and introducing them to cheap Chinese goods.

Really, the last thing the world needs is another WalMart. The best thing would be for us to burn them down, not build more. But that is for another thread.

 

[Imp]

The difference would be that Iran probably has no problem with media blackouts and killing its own people in bulk.

Iran did their protest thing a few years ago. That worked out...

 

[ProfJohn]

Really, the last thing the world needs is another WalMart. The best thing would be for us to burn them down, not build more. But that is for another thread.

You missed the point...

The point is that we need to introduce them to consumerism and a free market economy etc etc. When they become busy buying bigger and better things and trying to keep up with the Ali's then they will be too busy to kill us infidels.

 

[Modular]

http://forums.anandtech.com/forumdisplay.php?f=24


GTFO

 

[DCal430]

http://forums.anandtech.com/forumdisplay.php?f=24


GTFO

What is the point of not allowing political/global issues to be discussed in this section?

 

[mmntech]

Yup. This is nothing new in the scheme of the middle east. Anyone thinking a better, more progressive government is going to result is kidding themselves.

I third that. Although Egypt is one if the more progressive Muslim countries, there is now a major power vacuum. There's a few things that could happen.

1) the military forms a junta. Egypt end up like Chile or Myanmar.
2) extremists take over and form an Islamic Republic
3) theres some sort war or civil war that destablilizes the region
4) democracy and liberalism are actually adopted

Then first phase of the revolution lacked a central leader. I don't think the extremists could mount enough support unless they can get it from the outside. My money is on the first one.

 

[Modular]

What is the point of not allowing political/global issues to be discussed in this section?

I don't know. I was just being a typical ATOT asshat.

 

[ProfJohn]

I third that. Although Egypt is one if the more progressive Muslim countries, there is now a major power vacuum. There's a few things that could happen.

1) the military forms a junta. Egypt end up like Chile or Myanmar.
2) extremists take over and form an Islamic Republic
3) theres some sort war or civil war that destablilizes the region
4) democracy and liberalism are actually adopted

Then first phase of the revolution lacked a central leader. I don't think the extremists could mount enough support unless they can get it from the outside. My money is on the first one.

You forgot

1 1/2) Military supports secular democratic government like the military in Turkey does.

I believe that Egypt's military is not full of islamists or hard-liners so there is a good chance that it will help lead the country to freedom.

 

[Arkaign]

I third that. Although Egypt is one if the more progressive Muslim countries, there is now a major power vacuum. There's a few things that could happen.

1) the military forms a junta. Egypt end up like Chile or Myanmar.
2) extremists take over and form an Islamic Republic
3) theres some sort war or civil war that destablilizes the region
4) democracy and liberalism are actually adopted

Then first phase of the revolution lacked a central leader. I don't think the extremists could mount enough support unless they can get it from the outside. My money is on the first one.

I think it will end up being something a bit different than any of the above. (1) is incredibly unlikely given the makeup of the Egyptian army though. The vast majority of the army is younger and reflective of the general population. The ruling council will comprise mainly of civilian authorities, with the army maintaining security for an extended period. The period will probably be a pretty long one, while the constitution is solidified and political structures built. Where I'm not so optimistic is in the final result, which will probably be a lot like a less violent Iraq, with corruption and lack of cohesive focus being the norm, perhaps with a revolving door of leaders all bringing less than ideal results, but at least in a more representative nature than a pure dictatorship.